Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Kilmarnock 0–1 Ross County

Saturday 2 September 2023, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 4 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Kevin Clancy · Attendance 5,258

Ross County Murray 53'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockRoss County
Goals01
xG1.420.72
Non-penalty xG0.640.72
Expected Points2.000.71

Kilmarnock 57%Draw 30%Ross County 14%

Most likely score 1–0, 22%. Final score 0–1, 4%.

Ross County goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+5%4%1%6%1%14%11%4%4%3%1%22%20%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTMcKenzie on for Watson and Dallas on for Davies, 66'Murray on for Lyons, Wright on for Mayo, and Cameron on for Watkins, 89'Loturi on for Dhanda and Brophy on for Murray, 72'Harmon on for Reid, 89'Smith on for Turner, 90'Murray 53'Kilmarnock 1.42Ross County 0.7200.511.50153045607590HTMcKenzie on for Watson and Dallas on for Davies, 66'Murray on for Lyons, Wright on for Mayo, and Cameron on for Watkins, 89'Loturi on for Dhanda and Brophy on for Murray, 72'Harmon on for Reid, 89'Smith on for Turner, 90'Murray 53'1.420.72KilmarnockRoss County

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockRoss County

1.42 +0.65xG0.72 −0.68
0.64Non-penalty xG0.72
1.41 +0.17xG on target1.10 −0.11
15 +3Shots8 −3
4 +0.7Shots on target4 0.0
1 −0.3Big chances2 −1.0
61% +22Possession39% +5
412 +104Passes279 +21
62% 0Pass accuracy47% −16
60% +18Field tilt40% +3
38 +5Final-third entries23 −3
11 −1Box entries5 −6
19.8 +4Passes per defensive action16.4 +1
14 +9.7Corners2 −4.0
8 −7Tackles21 +8
2 −7.7Interceptions5 −10.7
13 −8Clearances44 +23
3 −0.3Saves4 −2.0
9 −5Fouls17 +5
0 −0.3Offsides1 −2.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Kennedy 47', 0.11 xGWatkins 65', 0.10 xGDeas 70', 0.07 xGKennedy 24', 0.06 xGLyons 54', 0.06 xGLyons 45+5', 0.05 xGDavies 5', 0.03 xGWatson 34', 0.03 xGWatkins 88', 0.03 xGLyons 3', 0.02 xGArmstrong 17', 0.02 xGMagennis 34', 0.02 xGKennedy 69', 0.02 xGMagennis 82', 0.02 xG11%0.07 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 0 goals55%0.35 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.35 xG, 0 goals17%0.11 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.11 xG, 0 goals16%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals2%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Ross County

White 62', 0.22 xGTurner 75', 0.10 xGBaldwin 31', 0.09 xGBaldwin 17', 0.07 xGDhanda 64', 0.05 xGBaldwin 43', 0.02 xGBrophy 78', 0.02 xGMurray 53', 0.15 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals81%0.58 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.58 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals17%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals3%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockRoss County

0.15 4 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.38 4 shots, 0 goals
0.11 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.37 9 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.33 4 shots, 1 goal
0.79 1 shot, 0 goalsPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
58 min (61%) · Kilmarnock 0.34, Ross County 0.33 xG
Ross County ahead
37 min (39%) · Kilmarnock 1.09, Ross County 0.38 xG

Line-ups

151761112168191023DennisMayoFindlayDeasArmstrongWatsonMagennisLyonsDaviesKennedyWatkins89'66'89'66'89'Kilmarnock 3-5-2Derek McInnes13554247210432615LaidlawNightingaleBaldwinLeakBrownTurnerRandallDhandaReidWhiteMurrayYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card90'72'89'72'Ross County 3-5-2Malky Mackay

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 66' Dallas for Davies
  • 66' McKenzie for Watson
  • 89' Murray for Lyons
  • 89' Cameron for Watkins
  • 89' Wright for Mayo

Ross County substitutes

  • 72' Brophy for Murray
  • 72' Loturi for Dhanda
  • 89' Harmon for Reid
  • 90' Smith for Turner

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0320
MayoCB890.000.0000.0544
FindlayCB900.000.013−0.0433
DeasCB900.070.0410.06104
ArmstrongRWB900.800.7630.4082
WatsonCM660.030.011−0.0123
MagennisCM900.040.010−0.0122
LyonsCM890.140.0100.1033
DaviesLWB660.03––0.073–
KennedyST900.190.2620.15141
WatkinsST890.130.001−0.0401
DallasFW240.000.000−0.0300
McKenzieMF240.000.0100.0410
MurrayFW10.000.0000.0000
CameronFW10.000.0000.0000
WrightDF10.000.0000.0000

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0000.0333
NightingaleCB900.000.0100.06611
BaldwinCB900.180.0810.1376
LeakCB900.000.0100.04611
Brown RWB900.000.0000.01211
TurnerCM900.100.0200.0003
Randall CM900.000.0500.07312
Dhanda CM7210.050.2920.1650
Reid LWB890.000.0820.0125
WhiteST900.220.0800.0105
Murray ST7210.150.021−0.0304
BrophyFW180.020.0110.0122
LoturiMF180.000.0000.0001
HarmonDF10.000.0000.0002
SmithDF00.000.0000.0010

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Dennis and Mayo: 4 passesDennis and Watkins: 4 passesDeas and Armstrong: 4 passesMayo and Findlay: 4 passesFindlay and Lyons: 4 passesFindlay and Kennedy: 4 passesArmstrong and Watkins: 4 passesDavies and Lyons: 4 passesMagennis and Lyons: 4 passesLyons and Kennedy: 4 passesDeas and Davies: 5 passesFindlay and Davies: 5 passesDavies and Magennis: 5 passesDavies and Kennedy: 5 passesWatson and Lyons: 5 passesMagennis and Kennedy: 5 passesDeas and Findlay: 6 passesArmstrong and Watson: 6 passesArmstrong and Kennedy: 7 passesDeas and Lyons: 8 passesDennis and Findlay: 9 passesArmstrong and Lyons: 9 passesDeas and Magennis: 10 passesDeas and Kennedy: 12 passesMayo and Armstrong: 13 passesDennis: 13 completed passesDeas: 30 completed passesMayo: 20 completed passesFindlay: 22 completed passesArmstrong: 22 completed passesDavies: 12 completed passesWatson: 15 completed passesMagennis: 16 completed passesLyons: 21 completed passesKennedy: 19 completed passesWatkins: 4 completed passes165171119121681023DennisDeasMayoFindlayArmstrongDaviesWatsonMagennisLyonsKennedyWatkinsStarters until 66' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Ross County

Baldwin and Murray: 3 passesNightingale and Leak: 3 passesNightingale and Brown: 3 passesNightingale and Turner: 3 passesLeak and Reid: 3 passesBrown and Turner: 3 passesTurner and White: 3 passesBaldwin and Nightingale: 4 passesNightingale and Dhanda: 4 passesBrown and Randall: 4 passesReid and Randall: 4 passesBaldwin and Dhanda: 5 passesLeak and Dhanda: 5 passesLeak and Turner: 5 passesRandall and Turner: 5 passesDhanda and Turner: 5 passesBaldwin and Turner: 6 passesBrown and Dhanda: 6 passesBaldwin and Brown: 7 passesDhanda and Murray: 7 passesBaldwin and White: 8 passesLaidlaw: 7 completed passesBaldwin: 27 completed passesNightingale: 13 completed passesLeak: 12 completed passesBrown: 11 completed passesReid: 5 completed passesRandall: 11 completed passesDhanda: 16 completed passesTurner: 18 completed passesWhite: 8 completed passesMurray: 2 completed passes15354244321072615LaidlawBaldwinNightingaleLeakBrownReidRandallDhandaTurnerWhiteMurrayStarters until 72' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
DeasKennedy13
MayoArmstrong12
DeasMagennis10
KennedyDeas8
KennedyArmstrong7

Ross County

FromToPasses
BaldwinWhite10
DhandaMurray6
LaidlawWhite4
TurnerLeak4
LeakDhanda4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

70.09−4.36−0.73−1.36−1.06−3.36−3.712+2.38−1.00−4.04−2.740.09+1.74−2.72−3.01−2.750.04+0.32−1.72−0.31−1.72+2.01−1.330.00−0.70−0.31+0.30−0.31+0.31−5.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 3 matches

Ross County

50.09+0.720+8.320+9.36+1.014+5.77+2.35−0.76−4.08−2.38+1.79+3.71−2.04+0.72−3.010+4.76+1.33−1.34+0.75−2.07+3.37+5.71−0.72−0.32−1.30−2.32+2.02+1.31+0.70−0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 3 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.020.020.010.010.010.010.010.040.010.020.060.070.060.010.060.03−0.01−0.050.090.010.08−0.02−0.030.25LessMore

Ross County

0.010.060.020.010.020.010.010.010.030.010.020.03−0.02−0.010.040.020.050.030.010.090.07LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackKilmarnock1.12 → 1.12Ross County1.08 → 1.07Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.38 → 1.37Ross County1.51 → 1.51

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six48%37%−11
11th8%11%+3
Bottom5%8%+3
Ross County
Top six24%36%+12
11th15%12%−3
Bottom15%9%−6
St. Johnstone
Top six16%16%0
11th18%18%0
Bottom24%27%+3

From the forecast before the match (2 September 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockRoss County
Expected goals1.561.01
Win50%24%
Expected Points1.750.98
Clean sheet36%21%

Kilmarnock 50%Draw 27%Ross County 24%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

Ross County goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%7%4%1%6%2%5%2%5%5%2%2%2%1%11%13%9%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 September 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawRoss County win
Kilmarnock
Top six48%56%43%37%
11th8%6%9%11%
Bottom5%3%7%8%
Ross County
Top six24%18%24%36%
11th15%17%15%12%
Bottom15%17%14%9%
St. Johnstone
Top six16%16%16%16%
11th18%18%17%18%
Bottom24%23%23%27%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–226 AugMotherwell (A)xG 1.05–2.15
  2. D0–013 AugHearts (A)xG 0.73–0.39
  3. W1–05 AugRangers (H)xG 0.52–1.36
  4. W3–128 MayRoss County (H)xG 1.46–1.25
  5. W3–024 MayDundee United (A)xG 1.90–0.99
  6. L0–120 MaySt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.48–1.62

Ross County

  1. L0–226 AugRangers (H)xG 0.48–1.96
  2. W2–012 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.60–0.49
  3. L2–45 AugCeltic (A)xG 1.13–4.15
  4. L1–328 MayKilmarnock (A)xG 1.25–1.46
  5. D3–324 MaySt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.29–2.53
  6. L0–120 MayMotherwell (A)xG 0.29–1.47

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockRoss County
Position7th9th
Played33
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠1–⁠11–⁠0–⁠2
Points4 (1.33 per game)3 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game0.961.06
Goals2–⁠24–⁠6
xG per game0.77–⁠1.301.40–⁠2.20
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 0.52–⁠1.361.50, 1.54–⁠1.23
Away: points, xG per game0.50, 0.89–⁠1.270.00, 1.13–⁠4.15
ManagerDerek McInnes (41)Malky Mackay (79)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackKilmarnock1.12, 7thRoss County1.08, 9thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.38, 6thRoss County1.51, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.04 Aug27 AugKilmarnock attack: 1.12Ross County attack: 1.081.121.08Ross CountyKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.04 Aug27 AugKilmarnock defence: 1.38Ross County defence: 1.511.511.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockRoss County
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−40%+5%+2%+39%
Counter-attacks−41%−51%−57%+174%
Set pieces+21%−10%average+3%
Penalties−74%+31%−74%+31%
Headers+1%−24%+21%+3%
Left side+14%−35%+27%+45%
Centre−34%+4%−20%+43%
Right side−41%+8%+4%+23%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdRoss County concededLeft side+14%+23%Centre−34%+43%Right side−41%+45%Open play−40%+39%Counter-attacks−41%+174%Set pieces+21%+3%Headers+1%+3%

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+27%+8%Centre−20%+4%Right side+4%−35%Open play+2%+5%Counter-attacks−57%−51%Set piecesaverage−10%Headers+21%−24%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockRoss County

0.77xG1.40
1.30xG against2.20
39%Possession34%
11.7Shots11.3
13.0Shots against18.0
3.3Shots on target4.0
1.3Big chances3.0
308Passes258
62%Pass accuracy63%
4.3Corners6.0
42%Field tilt38%
32.6Final-third entries26.0
12.0Box entries11.3
16.0Passes per defensive action15.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level660.751.15
Ahead240.811.72
Behind0––

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level262.812.03
Ahead171.930.58
Behind470.432.88

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.021–0
16–300.200.050–0
31–450.120.220–0
46–600.090.170–1
61–750.150.171–0
76–900.030.660–1

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.490.240–0
16–300.220.550–4
31–450.130.581–1
46–600.380.212–0
61–750.060.280–1
76–900.140.341–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 3Mayo 3Deas 3Findlay 3Armstrong 3Watson 3Lyons 3Magennis 3Ndaba 2Kennedy 1Kennedy 2Vassell 1Watkins 33-5-2 in 2 of 3 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (2), 5-3-2 (1)

Ross County

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTLaidlaw 3Brown 3Baldwin 3Leak 2Harmon 1Harmon 2Dhanda 1Dhanda 1Sims 1Nightingale 1Randall 3Loturi 2Dhanda 1Sims 2Loturi 1White 3Murray 34-4-2 in 2 of 3 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
28 May 2023Kilmarnock3–1Ross CountyxG 1.46–1.25
28 January 2023Ross County3–0KilmarnockxG 1.74–1.38
22 October 2022Kilmarnock1–0Ross CountyxG 1.10–0.70
20 August 2022Ross County1–0KilmarnockxG 0.65–0.70
10 April 2021Kilmarnock2–2Ross CountyxG 0.69–1.07
6 March 2021Ross County3–2KilmarnockxG 1.21–1.67

8 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 3, Ross County won 3, and 2 were drawn. Goals 13–13 and xG 1.27–1.31 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong342,999980.230.22
Vassell151,290420.320.11
Watson11923000.140.11
Murray4511000.080.16

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Brophy8570320.350.08
Murray8845210.300.12
Sims131,025000.260.12
White363,1491220.320.06

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.