Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Ross County 1–2 St. Mirren

Saturday 21 December 2024, 15:00 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 18 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Iain Snedden · Attendance 3,271

Ross County Efete 46'

St. Mirren Iacovitti 27', Smyth 89' · Tanser sent off 55'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountySt. Mirren
Goals12
xG1.241.10
Expected Points1.461.23

Ross County 38%Draw 31%St. Mirren 31%

Most likely score 1–1, 16%. Final score 1–2, 8%.

St. Mirren goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+8%10%5%2%11%8%3%7%9%6%2%3%3%2%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTTanser (St. Mirren), second yellow card 55'Denholm on for Allardice, 46'Reid on for Harmon, 68'Brophy on for Nisbet, 69'Gogic on for Idowu, 76'Ayunga on for Mandron, 77'Boyd-Munce on for Kiltie, 90+2'Adeniran on for Smyth, 90+5'Efete 46'Iacovitti 27'Smyth 89'Ross County 1.24St. Mirren 1.1000.511.50153045607590HTTanser (St. Mirren), second yellow card 55'Denholm on for Allardice, 46'Reid on for Harmon, 68'Brophy on for Nisbet, 69'Gogic on for Idowu, 76'Ayunga on for Mandron, 77'Boyd-Munce on for Kiltie, 90+2'Adeniran on for Smyth, 90+5'Efete 46'Iacovitti 27'Smyth 89'1.241.10Ross CountySt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountySt. Mirren

1.24 +0.35xG1.10 −0.07
0.91 +0.10xG on target1.43 +0.22
13 +3Shots14 +3
1 −2.1Shots on target5 +1.2
3 +1.9Big chances1 −1.1
25 +10Touches in the opposition box22 +2
55% +16Possession45% +2
317 +21Passes264 −40
64% −2Pass accuracy59% −7
61% +26Field tilt39% −2
28 −1Final-third entries37 +6
11 +4.4Box entries7 −2.3
21.1 +4Passes per defensive action9.9 −6
4 −0.5Corners2 −2.6
15 −1Tackles20 +4
10 −0.8Interceptions9 +0.1
34 −2Clearances32 +5
3 +0.1Saves0 −2.3
7 −4Fouls13 0
0 −1.1Offsides0 −2.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

Wright 82', 0.27 xGEfete 4', 0.19 xGNisbet 45+2', 0.14 xGChilvers 16', 0.08 xGEfete 40', 0.06 xGEfete 46', 0.06 xGHale 34', 0.05 xGHale 52', 0.05 xGHale 75', 0.05 xGChilvers 24', 0.03 xGRandall 68', 0.02 xGChilvers 90+4', 0.02 xGEfete 46', 0.24 xG, goal15%0.19 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.19 xG, 0 goals65%0.81 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.81 xG, 1 goal8%0.10 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals11%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Phillips 10', 0.16 xGPhillips 31', 0.12 xGKiltie 32', 0.09 xGMandron 2', 0.07 xGIacovitti 71', 0.07 xGIdowu 69', 0.06 xGSmyth 27', 0.04 xGSmyth 67', 0.03 xGAyunga 79', 0.03 xGTaylor 86', 0.03 xGTanser 48', 0.02 xGTaylor 84', 0.01 xGIacovitti 27', 0.28 xG, goalSmyth 89', 0.09 xG, goal40%0.44 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.44 xG, 1 goal39%0.42 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.42 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals10%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 1 goal8%0.09 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountySt. Mirren

0.20 5 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.49 6 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.03 1 shot, 0 goals
1.04 8 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.58 7 shots, 2 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
70 min (72%) · Ross County 0.67, St. Mirren 0.88 xG
St. Mirren ahead
27 min (28%) · Ross County 0.57, St. Mirren 0.22 xG

Line-ups

224206248231016269HamiltonWrightLopataAllardiceEfeteRandallNisbetChilversHarmonWhiteHaleGoalYellow card46'69'68'Ross County 3-5-2Don Cowie1224542888312911BalcombeFraserIacovittiTaylorBwomonoSmythPhillipsTanserIdowuMandronKiltieGoalYellow cardGoalYellow cardYellow cardSent off, second yellow90+5'76'77'90+2'St. Mirren 3-4-3Stephen Robinson

Ross County substitutes

  • 46' Denholm for Allardice
  • 68' Reid for Harmon
  • 69' Brophy for Nisbet

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 76' Gogic for Idowu
  • 77' Ayunga for Mandron
  • 90+2' Boyd-Munce for Kiltie
  • 90+5' Adeniran for Smyth

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HamiltonGK900.000.0300.1161
WrightCB900.270.0100.08714
LopataCB900.000.3920.1728
AllardiceCB460.000.0600.1146
EfeteRWB9010.540.0100.0395
RandallCM900.020.0100.0339
NisbetCM690.140.0200.0435
ChilversCM900.120.1120.1740
HarmonLWB680.000.0300.0716
White ST900.000.010−0.0100
HaleST900.150.0510.0120
DenholmMF440.000.0210.0713
ReidMF220.000.0000.0135
BrophyFW210.000.001−0.0201

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BalcombeGK900.000.0000.0230
FraserCB900.000.0300.0448
IacovittiCB9010.340.0000.01011
TaylorCB900.040.0200.09512
Bwomono RWB900.000.1020.1364
SmythCM9010.160.1730.2276
Phillips CM900.280.0110.0335
Tanser LWB550.020.0100.0366
IdowuRW760.060.0510.1261
MandronST770.070.0200.0542
KiltieLW900.090.010−0.0903
GogicDF140.000.0000.0102
AyungaFW130.030.0000.0221
Boyd-MunceMF00.000.0000.0001
AdeniranMF00.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Hamilton and Efete: 3 passesLopata and Randall: 3 passesNisbet and Hale: 3 passesAllardice and Harmon: 3 passesHarmon and Hale: 3 passesHamilton and Lopata: 4 passesHamilton and Wright: 4 passesHamilton and White: 4 passesEfete and Nisbet: 4 passesEfete and Hale: 4 passesLopata and Wright: 5 passesEfete and Chilvers: 5 passesHarmon and Chilvers: 5 passesLopata and Allardice: 6 passesRandall and Harmon: 7 passesWright and Allardice: 8 passesWright and Efete: 9 passesHamilton: 11 completed passesLopata: 11 completed passesWright: 20 completed passesRandall: 7 completed passesEfete: 13 completed passesNisbet: 9 completed passesAllardice: 15 completed passesHarmon: 14 completed passesChilvers: 8 completed passesHale: 5 completed passesWhite: 3 completed passes222048242361610926HamiltonLopataWrightRandallEfeteNisbetAllardiceHarmonChilversHaleWhiteStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

St. Mirren

Taylor and Phillips: 3 passesTaylor and Smyth: 3 passesTaylor and Mandron: 3 passesFraser and Bwomono: 3 passesBwomono and Mandron: 3 passesPhillips and Smyth: 3 passesTaylor and Fraser: 4 passesFraser and Mandron: 4 passesBwomono and Phillips: 4 passesSmyth and Mandron: 4 passesBalcombe and Mandron: 5 passesTanser and Kiltie: 5 passesTaylor and Kiltie: 7 passesPhillips and Idowu: 7 passesBwomono and Idowu: 8 passesIdowu and Mandron: 8 passesTaylor and Tanser: 9 passesTanser and Smyth: 9 passesFraser and Smyth: 11 passesBalcombe: 9 completed passesTaylor: 21 completed passesFraser: 19 completed passesIacovitti: 7 completed passesBwomono: 14 completed passesTanser: 14 completed passesPhillips: 10 completed passesSmyth: 19 completed passesIdowu: 12 completed passesMandron: 9 completed passesKiltie: 5 completed passes1522442388812911BalcombeTaylorFraserIacovittiBwomonoTanserPhillipsSmythIdowuMandronKiltieStarters until 55' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
EfeteChilvers10
WrightEfete9
HarmonRandall8
EfeteWright8
HarmonChilvers7

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
TaylorKiltie7
FraserSmyth7
BwomonoIdowu7
MandronIdowu6
TaylorTanser6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

2−3.54−2.917−2.57−2.37+1.77−0.98+0.810+2.714+6.92−3.77+2.52−1.53−0.96+0.97+3.40−2.80−2.22−0.830.01−1.52+0.20−1.30−1.01−1.02+1.20−0.20−0.50−0.10−0.71−5.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

St. Mirren

3−1.75−1.915+1.68+0.58+2.56−1.37+1.13−1.56+0.115+6.15−1.03−1.11−3.04−0.33−3.56+2.23−0.71−2.13+0.21−3.57+4.62+0.40−1.00−1.01−1.10−0.41+0.60−1.01+0.71+0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.020.050.050.030.010.010.020.010.020.020.010.040.03−0.010.020.010.090.040.070.010.01−0.100.140.160.12LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.010.030.010.020.010.030.010.120.060.040.020.040.01−0.010.030.010.07−0.05−0.020.23LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackRoss County0.98 → 0.98St. Mirren1.12 → 1.13Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.63 → 1.62St. Mirren1.45 → 1.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
Top six4%1%−3
11th24%25%+1
Bottom39%50%+11
St. Mirren
Top six39%51%+12
11th8%4%−4
Bottom4%2%−2
St. Johnstone
Top six3%3%0
11th26%29%+3
Bottom33%29%−4
Kilmarnock
Top six29%28%−1
11th8%8%0
Bottom4%3%−1

From the forecast before the match (21 December 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountySt. Mirren
Expected goals1.251.21
Win37%35%
Expected Points1.381.33
Clean sheet30%29%

Ross County 37%Draw 29%St. Mirren 35%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 51%.

St. Mirren goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+9%10%6%3%8%3%1%7%8%5%2%3%3%2%1%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 21 December 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawSt. Mirren win
Ross County
Top six4%8%3%1%
11th24%22%25%25%
Bottom39%28%41%50%
St. Mirren
Top six39%29%36%51%
11th8%11%8%4%
Bottom4%7%3%2%
St. Johnstone
Top six3%4%3%3%
11th26%23%26%29%
Bottom33%37%32%29%
Kilmarnock
Top six29%30%31%28%
11th8%8%7%8%
Bottom4%4%4%3%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. L1–314 DecHibernian (A)xG 1.22–4.80
  2. L0–38 DecRangers (H)xG 0.77–1.61
  3. L0–530 NovCeltic (A)xG 0.10–3.09
  4. W2–123 NovMotherwell (H)xG 1.59–0.63
  5. L0–39 NovDundee United (A)xG 0.89–1.93
  6. D0–02 NovSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.71–1.25

St. Mirren

  1. W3–214 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.08–0.79
  2. L0–17 DecMotherwell (H)xG 0.55–1.74
  3. L0–230 NovDundee United (A)xG 0.35–3.22
  4. W2–123 NovAberdeen (H)xG 1.56–1.38
  5. W2–19 NovHibernian (A)xG 2.18–2.28
  6. D0–02 NovRoss County (H)xG 1.25–0.71

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountySt. Mirren
Position10th6th
Played1717
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠6–⁠86–⁠3–⁠8
Points15 (0.88 per game)21 (1.24 per game)
Expected Points per game1.031.18
Goals13–⁠3322–⁠28
xG per game0.89–⁠1.711.17–⁠1.55
Home: points, xG per game1.33, 1.18–⁠0.871.56, 1.05–⁠1.17
Away: points, xG per game0.38, 0.57–⁠2.640.88, 1.31–⁠1.97
ManagerDon Cowie (32)Stephen Robinson (50)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackRoss County0.98, 12thSt. Mirren1.12, 10thDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.63, 12thSt. Mirren1.45, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecRoss County attack: 0.98St. Mirren attack: 1.121.120.98St. MirrenRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecRoss County defence: 1.63St. Mirren defence: 1.451.631.45

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountySt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−58%+36%−31%−8%
Counter-attacks−36%+40%−20%+9%
Set pieces−21%−19%−12%+20%
Penalties+41%+6%+41%+76%
Headers−32%+18%−17%−3%
Left side−19%+7%−30%−14%
Centre−52%+28%−28%−5%
Right side−54%+18%−14%+33%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−19%+33%Centre−52%−5%Right side−54%−14%Open play−58%−8%Counter-attacks−36%+9%Set pieces−21%+20%Headers−32%−3%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdRoss County concededLeft side−30%+18%Centre−28%+28%Right side−14%+7%Open play−31%+36%Counter-attacks−20%+40%Set pieces−12%−19%Headers−17%+18%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountySt. Mirren

0.89xG1.17
1.71xG against1.55
39%Possession43%
10.2Shots11.4
14.5Shots against11.9
3.1Shots on target3.8
1.1Big chances2.1
14.5Touches in the opposition box20.1
296Passes304
66%Pass accuracy66%
4.5Corners4.6
35%Field tilt41%
29.2Final-third entries30.8
6.6Box entries9.3
16.8Passes per defensive action15.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.041.41
Ahead170.741.13
Behind270.752.58

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level491.181.33
Ahead211.171.67
Behind201.141.95

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.192–2
16–300.110.231–3
31–450.230.303–9
46–600.100.292–4
61–750.150.311–4
76–900.170.394–11

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.234–5
16–300.140.175–3
31–450.380.175–3
46–600.210.152–5
61–750.110.260–4
76–900.200.566–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLaidlaw 15Hamilton 2Wright 17Denholm 1Grieves 1Lopata 12Allardice 1Leak 11Campbell 5Nightingale 3Brown 11Efete 6Randall 7Chilvers 3Allardice 1Nisbet 10Harmon 5Campbell 3Randall 5Campbell 3Harmon 3Chilvers 6Randall 4White 2White 9Brophy 3Chilvers 2Hale 15Samuel 2Allardice 13-4-1-2 in 6 of 17 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (6), 3-5-2 (5), 4-4-2 (2), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWBalcombe 17Fraser 15Phillips 2Gogic 15Iacovitti 3Taylor 12Dunne 4Bwomono 9Rooney 6Fraser 2Phillips 12Boyd-Munce 2Adeniran 2O'Hara 13Idowu 3Gogic 1Tanser 13Brown 3Taylor 1McMenamin 5Boyd-Munce 5Scott 3Olusanya 12Mandron 2van Veen 2Kiltie 8Olusanya 4Mandron 33-4-3 in 8 of 17 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (8), 3-5-2 (6), 4-3-3 (2), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
2 November 2024St. Mirren0–0Ross CountyxG 1.25–0.71
27 February 2024Ross County1–1St. MirrenxG 1.02–0.67
9 December 2023St. Mirren2–0Ross CountyxG 0.94–0.62
28 November 2023Ross County1–0St. MirrenxG 0.66–0.24
18 February 2023St. Mirren1–0Ross CountyxG 2.34–0.63
5 November 2022Ross County3–2St. MirrenxG 1.14–0.59

14 league meetings since 2020/21: Ross County won 3, St. Mirren won 7, and 4 were drawn. Goals 10–17 and xG 0.98–1.17 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Hale151,229500.380.05
White111,054200.200.07
Chilvers11849010.120.13
Denholm7609010.040.12

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Olusanya161,171500.350.01
Idowu4506200.280.06
McMenamin5460200.240.05
O'Hara151,324220.130.14

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.