Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Aberdeen 1–2 Ross County

Thursday 2 January 2025, 15:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 21 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 17,007

Aberdeen Nisbet 45+11'

Ross County Wright 24', Chilvers 60'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenRoss County
Goals12
xG1.550.80
Expected Points1.900.81

Aberdeen 54%Draw 28%Ross County 18%

Most likely score 1–1, 15%. Final score 1–2, 5%.

Ross County goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+8%8%3%5%4%5%6%2%2%2%13%15%11%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTNisbet on for Sokler, 30'Morris on for McGrath, 70'McGarry on for MacKenzie, Polvara on for Clarkson, and Ambrose on for Duk, 79'Harmon on for Efete, 44'Telfer on for Leak, 75'Allardice on for Kenneh, 81'Hale on for Nisbet, 82'Nisbet 45+11'Wright 24'Chilvers 60'Aberdeen 1.55Ross County 0.8000.511.520153045607590HTNisbet on for Sokler, 30'Morris on for McGrath, 70'McGarry on for MacKenzie, Polvara on for Clarkson, and Ambrose on for Duk, 79'Harmon on for Efete, 44'Telfer on for Leak, 75'Allardice on for Kenneh, 81'Hale on for Nisbet, 82'Nisbet 45+11'Wright 24'Chilvers 60'1.550.80AberdeenRoss County

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenRoss County

1.55 +0.28xG0.80 −0.19
1.85 +0.48xG on target1.16 +0.26
20 +8Shots9 −2
4 +0.1Shots on target4 +0.8
1 −0.9Big chances1 −0.2
37 +12Touches in the opposition box20 +4
66% +13Possession34% −6
480 +56Passes262 −35
81% +3Pass accuracy65% −1
69% +18Field tilt31% −6
52 +16Final-third entries26 −4
17 +3.7Box entries13 +5.8
7.7 −5Passes per defensive action13.4 −4
9 +3.9Corners4 −0.8
15 −3Tackles31 +15
3 −4.6Interceptions11 +0.5
26 −6Clearances53 +18
2 −0.8Saves3 +0.2
14 +2Fouls14 +4
2 +0.6Offsides3 +2.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

Nisbet 90+3', 0.18 xGNisbet 54', 0.17 xGDuk 49', 0.16 xGNisbet 90+2', 0.15 xGMacDonald 66', 0.14 xGAmbrose 90+2', 0.10 xGAmbrose 90+1', 0.09 xGPolvara 90+2', 0.09 xGNisbet 38', 0.05 xGKeskinen 45+12', 0.05 xGNisbet 53', 0.05 xGNisbet 90+2', 0.05 xGKeskinen 38', 0.04 xGKeskinen 61', 0.04 xGDuk 44', 0.03 xGMolloy 66', 0.03 xGNisbet 89', 0.03 xGKeskinen 8', 0.02 xGDevlin 43', 0.02 xGNisbet 45+11', 0.07 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals68%1.06 xGCentral box: 12 shots, 1.06 xG, 0 goals17%0.27 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.27 xG, 0 goals14%0.22 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.22 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Ross County

Kenneh 45+6', 0.34 xGChilvers 15', 0.12 xGHarmon 45+3', 0.10 xGWhite 59', 0.10 xGNisbet 14', 0.06 xGLeak 51', 0.02 xGHale 90+4', 0.02 xGChilvers 60', 0.03 xG, goalWright 24', 0.02 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals41%0.33 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.33 xG, 0 goals48%0.38 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.38 xG, 1 goal8%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals4%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 1 goal

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenRoss County

0.92 11 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.55 5 shots, 1 goal
0.22 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.23 2 shots, 0 goals
0.42 7 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.03 2 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
40 min (37%) · Aberdeen 0.45, Ross County 0.35 xG
Ross County ahead
68 min (63%) · Aberdeen 1.10, Ross County 0.45 xG

Line-ups

312272131041178119DoohanDevlinMacDonaldMolloyMacKenzieClarksonShinnieDukMcGrathKeskinenSoklerYellow cardYellow card79'79'79'70'30'Aberdeen 4-2-3-1Jimmy Thelin184203223428241026AmissahWrightLopataLeakBrownNisbetKennehRandallEfeteChilversWhiteGoalYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card75'82'81'44'Ross County 3-5-1-1Don Cowie

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 30' Nisbet for Sokler · goal 45+11'
  • 70' Morris for McGrath
  • 79' McGarry for MacKenzie
  • 79' Polvara for Clarkson
  • 79' Ambrose for Duk

Ross County substitutes

  • 44' Harmon for Efete · 1 assist
  • 75' Telfer for Leak
  • 81' Allardice for Kenneh
  • 82' Hale for Nisbet

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DoohanGK900.000.0100.0224
DevlinRB900.020.0110.0547
MacDonaldCB900.140.0100.0628
MolloyCB900.030.1100.1657
MacKenzieLB790.000.1210.1857
ClarksonDM790.000.0500.0420
ShinnieDM900.000.1410.1673
Duk RW790.190.3520.1842
McGrathAM700.000.2240.1724
Keskinen LW900.150.3730.3781
SoklerST300.000.000−0.0101
NisbetFW6010.750.0600.0511
MorrisFW200.000.1510.1951
McGarryDF110.000.0100.0110
PolvaraMF110.090.0100.0111
AmbroseFW110.190.041−0.0600

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
AmissahGK900.000.0000.0442
WrightCB9010.020.0000.01315
Lopata CB900.000.0100.04415
LeakCB750.020.0100.0789
Brown RWB900.000.0310.0138
NisbetCM820.060.231−0.0114
KennehCM810.34–––––
RandallCM900.000.0500.09513
EfeteLWB440.000.0100.0104
Chilvers AM90110.150.4810.3584
WhiteST900.100.032−0.0614
HarmonMF4610.100.1520.28411
TelferMF150.000.0010.0111
AllardiceMF90.000.0000.0008
HaleFW80.020.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Aberdeen

Doohan and Molloy: 3 passesDevlin and McGrath: 3 passesMolloy and MacDonald: 3 passesMacDonald and Clarkson: 3 passesMacKenzie and Clarkson: 3 passesClarkson and McGrath: 3 passesShinnie and McGrath: 3 passesMacKenzie and McGrath: 4 passesClarkson and Shinnie: 4 passesDoohan and MacDonald: 5 passesDoohan and MacKenzie: 5 passesDevlin and Clarkson: 5 passesDevlin and Keskinen: 5 passesMolloy and MacKenzie: 6 passesMolloy and Clarkson: 6 passesMacDonald and Shinnie: 6 passesMacKenzie and Shinnie: 6 passesDevlin and MacDonald: 8 passesDoohan: 8 completed passesDevlin: 12 completed passesMolloy: 12 completed passesMacDonald: 16 completed passesMacKenzie: 16 completed passesClarkson: 12 completed passesShinnie: 14 completed passesKeskinen: 3 completed passesMcGrath: 7 completed passesDuk: 3 completed passesSokler: 3 completed passes312212731048171119DoohanDevlinMolloyMacDonaldMacKenzieClarksonShinnieKeskinenMcGrathDukSoklerStarters until 30' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Ross County

Wright and Randall: 3 passesLeak and Nisbet: 3 passesLeak and White: 3 passesBrown and Randall: 3 passesEfete and Nisbet: 3 passesLopata and Wright: 4 passesNisbet and Chilvers: 4 passesLopata and Leak: 5 passesLeak and Efete: 5 passesEfete and Chilvers: 6 passesWright and Brown: 7 passesAmissah: 3 completed passesLopata: 8 completed passesWright: 11 completed passesLeak: 13 completed passesBrown: 7 completed passesEfete: 8 completed passesNisbet: 9 completed passesRandall: 8 completed passesChilvers: 7 completed passesWhite: 4 completed passes1820432242381026AmissahLopataWrightLeakBrownEfeteNisbetRandallChilversWhiteStarters until 44' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
ShinnieMacKenzie16
MacKenzieShinnie14
MacDonaldDevlin14
MolloyClarkson14
ShinnieMolloy13

Ross County

FromToPasses
LeakNisbet7
BrownWright6
AmissahWhite6
NisbetLeak5
RandallWhite5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

6+1.116−2.84−4.71−5.08+1.66+0.97+2.45−2.53−4.07+1.33−0.46+2.43−3.06+0.32−2.42−0.61−1.80−3.47+2.74+1.80−1.43+1.54+2.21−2.01+0.30−0.30−0.51+0.51+0.50−6.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Ross County

6+1.015+8.331+12.38−1.211+5.07−0.86−1.08+1.37−0.46−1.78+2.63−1.35+1.67+3.18+2.72−1.82−0.51−0.95+2.28+4.84+1.41−0.81−0.20−0.96+4.01+0.20−0.20−0.50−0.12+1.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.010.010.010.020.010.010.010.010.010.030.030.030.050.060.010.030.040.080.080.120.05−0.020.18−0.050.420.38LessMore

Ross County

0.010.030.030.020.010.030.010.080.10−0.01−0.010.020.030.060.010.020.010.20−0.07−0.010.28LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackAberdeen1.21 → 1.21Ross County1.04 → 1.04Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.45 → 1.43Ross County1.54 → 1.53

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six97%95%−2
Ross County
Top six3%6%+3
11th28%24%−4
Bottom19%10%−9
St. Johnstone
11th22%20%−2
Bottom58%63%+5
Dundee FC
Top six9%10%+1
11th19%22%+3
Bottom10%11%+1

From the forecast before the match (2 January 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenRoss County
Expected goals1.661.00
Win52%22%
Expected Points1.820.93
Clean sheet37%19%

Aberdeen 52%Draw 26%Ross County 22%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 52%.

Ross County goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+8%6%4%1%6%2%5%2%5%5%3%2%2%1%11%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 January 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawRoss County win
Aberdeen
Top six97%99%97%95%
Ross County
Top six3%2%2%6%
11th28%30%28%24%
Bottom19%23%18%10%
St. Johnstone
11th22%23%22%20%
Bottom58%55%59%63%
Dundee FC
Top six9%9%9%10%
11th19%18%18%22%
Bottom10%9%10%11%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. L0–129 DecDundee United (A)xG 0.91–2.29
  2. L0–426 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 0.50–4.02
  3. L1–321 DecHibernian (H)xG 1.90–1.44
  4. D1–17 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.70–1.35
  5. L0–14 DecCeltic (H)xG 0.88–1.62
  6. D1–11 DecHearts (A)xG 0.62–1.15

Ross County

  1. D2–229 DecHearts (H)xG 1.40–1.06
  2. W3–026 DecDundee FC (A)xG 2.03–0.30
  3. L1–221 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.24–1.10
  4. L1–314 DecHibernian (A)xG 1.22–4.80
  5. L0–38 DecRangers (H)xG 0.77–1.61
  6. L0–530 NovCeltic (A)xG 0.10–3.09

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenRoss County
Position3rd10th
Played1920
Won, drawn, lost10–⁠4–⁠54–⁠7–⁠9
Points34 (1.79 per game)19 (0.95 per game)
Expected Points per game1.151.16
Goals31–⁠2619–⁠37
xG per game1.27–⁠1.670.99–⁠1.57
Home: points, xG per game2.20, 1.53–⁠1.401.18, 1.21–⁠0.91
Away: points, xG per game1.33, 0.99–⁠1.980.67, 0.73–⁠2.38
ManagerJimmy Thelin (19)Don Cowie (35)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackAberdeen1.21, 7thRoss County1.04, 11thDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.45, 8thRoss County1.54, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecAberdeen attack: 1.21Ross County attack: 1.041.211.04Ross CountyAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecAberdeen defence: 1.45Ross County defence: 1.541.541.45

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenRoss County
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+8%+16%−57%+27%
Counter-attacks−27%−68%−47%+16%
Set pieces−28%+49%+1%−22%
Penalties−67%−1%+57%−6%
Headers−2%+24%−33%+9%
Left side+8%+9%−19%+3%
Centre−7%+30%−45%+16%
Right side−14%+5%−43%+12%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdRoss County concededLeft side+8%+12%Centre−7%+16%Right side−14%+3%Open play+8%+27%Counter-attacks−27%+16%Set pieces−28%−22%Headers−2%+9%

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdAberdeen concededLeft side−19%+5%Centre−45%+30%Right side−43%+9%Open play−57%+16%Counter-attacks−47%−68%Set pieces+1%+49%Headers−33%+24%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenRoss County

1.27xG0.99
1.67xG against1.57
53%Possession40%
11.9Shots11.1
14.3Shots against13.9
3.9Shots on target3.2
1.9Big chances1.2
24.7Touches in the opposition box16.1
424Passes297
77%Pass accuracy66%
5.1Corners4.8
51%Field tilt37%
36.4Final-third entries29.5
13.3Box entries7.2
12.8Passes per defensive action17.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level511.111.58
Ahead261.271.74
Behind141.871.92

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.041.37
Ahead181.000.99
Behind280.922.26

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.173–0
16–300.150.223–6
31–450.200.334–5
46–600.240.188–2
61–750.210.335–4
76–900.300.458–9

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.192–3
16–300.110.212–4
31–450.230.283–9
46–600.110.273–5
61–750.150.272–4
76–900.260.367–12

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMitov 16Doohan 3Devlin 18Milne 1Rubezic 18MacDonald 2Molloy 18MacKenzie 16McGarry 3Shinnie 15Palaversa 5Keskinen 1Nilsen 17Keskinen 11Morris 5McGrath 2Clarkson 9Gueye 4McGrath 3McGrath 13Duk 4Keskinen 2Sokler 10Nisbet 7Ambrose 14-2-3-1 in every start

Ross County

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLaidlaw 15Hamilton 3Amissah 2Wright 20Grieves 1Denholm 1Lopata 15Allardice 2Leak 13Campbell 5Nightingale 3Brown 11Efete 9Randall 8Chilvers 5Denholm 2Nisbet 10Harmon 7Campbell 3Randall 6Harmon 4Campbell 3Chilvers 7Randall 4Nisbet 2White 10Brophy 3Chilvers 2Hale 18Grieves 2Samuel 23-4-1-2 in 7 of 20 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (7), 3-5-2 (6), 3-5-1-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
31 August 2024Ross County0–1AberdeenxG 1.05–0.35
19 May 2024Ross County2–2AberdeenxG 2.30–1.30
30 March 2024Aberdeen2–1Ross CountyxG 0.71–0.82
2 January 2024Ross County0–3AberdeenxG 0.14–1.72
24 September 2023Aberdeen4–0Ross CountyxG 3.33–0.85
14 April 2023Ross County0–1AberdeenxG 0.94–0.65

14 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 7, Ross County won 2, and 5 were drawn. Goals 22–11 and xG 1.60–0.89 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McGrath181,473460.260.22
Duk6669020.230.21
Clarkson9778210.190.22
Morris5642150.150.25

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Hale181,469500.350.04
White121,218400.300.06
Chilvers141,108120.120.13
Allardice5489000.060.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.