Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Kilmarnock 1–0 Ross County

Saturday 6 April 2024, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 32 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Euan Anderson · Attendance 5,473

Kilmarnock Vassell 64'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockRoss County
Goals10
xG0.980.47
Expected Points1.760.86

Kilmarnock 46%Draw 38%Ross County 16%

Most likely score 0–0, 23%. Final score 1–0, 23%.

Ross County goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+11%2%13%2%11%6%1%3%2%23%23%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTNdaba on for Armstrong and Watson on for Polworth, 89'Harmon on for Reid, 44'Dhanda on for White and Sims on for Efete, 71'Khela on for Randall, 77'Vassell 64'Kilmarnock 0.98Ross County 0.4700.511.50153045607590HTNdaba on for Armstrong and Watson on for Polworth, 89'Harmon on for Reid, 44'Dhanda on for White and Sims on for Efete, 71'Khela on for Randall, 77'Vassell 64'0.980.47KilmarnockRoss County

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockRoss County

0.98 −0.28xG0.47 −0.41
1.49 +0.03xG on target0.38 −0.51
14 +1.1Shots10 +0.3
5 +0.9Shots on target4 +0.8
2 −0.1Big chances0 −1.5
25 +3Touches in the opposition box13 −4
56% +10Possession44% 0
354 +22Passes288 −51
70% +5Pass accuracy55% −11
60% +10Field tilt40% −3
43 +10Final-third entries22 −10
13 +0.9Box entries7 −1.9
14.3 0Passes per defensive action11.5 −4
4 −2.3Corners3 −1.6
12 −2Tackles22 +8
6 −1.0Interceptions6 −3.5
32 +11Clearances30 +3
4 +1.1Saves4 −0.1
6 −6Fouls15 +3
2 +0.9Offsides2 +0.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Kennedy 62', 0.19 xGKennedy 1', 0.14 xGWatkins 62', 0.12 xGVassell 51', 0.10 xGWright 34', 0.09 xGVassell 33', 0.07 xGDonnelly 82', 0.05 xGDonnelly 35', 0.04 xGArmstrong 50', 0.04 xGVassell 62', 0.03 xGVassell 70', 0.03 xGDonnelly 30', 0.01 xGWright 76', 0.01 xGVassell 64', 0.07 xG, goal24%0.23 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals52%0.50 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.50 xG, 0 goals10%0.10 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals14%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.14 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Ross County

Brophy 3', 0.11 xGBrophy 45+1', 0.10 xGWhite 45+2', 0.05 xGAyina 23', 0.04 xGBrophy 38', 0.04 xGBrophy 15', 0.03 xGMurray 52', 0.03 xGMurray 52', 0.03 xGAyina 65', 0.02 xGRandall 12', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals52%0.24 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.24 xG, 0 goals7%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals35%0.16 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals7%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockRoss County

0.68 9 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.43 9 shots, 0 goals
0.30 5 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.04 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
66 min (72%) · Kilmarnock 0.89, Ross County 0.45 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
26 min (28%) · Kilmarnock 0.09, Ross County 0.02 xG

Line-ups

15417611223110239DennisMayoWrightFindlayDeasArmstrongDonnellyPolworthKennedyWatkinsVassellYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card89'89'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes40285422421843272615WickensAyinaBaldwinLeakEfeteRandallKingReidBrophyWhiteMurrayYellow cardYellow cardYellow card71'77'44'71'Ross County 3-4-3Don Cowie

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 89' Ndaba for Armstrong
  • 89' Watson for Polworth

Ross County substitutes

  • 44' Harmon for Reid
  • 71' Dhanda for White · yellow card 86'
  • 71' Sims for Efete
  • 77' Khela for Randall

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0111
Mayo RB900.000.0400.13118
WrightCB900.090.0000.02315
FindlayCB900.000.0000.0439
DeasLB900.000.0300.12145
ArmstrongRM890.040.2350.59122
Donnelly CM900.110.010−0.0534
Polworth CM890.000.2640.2844
KennedyLM900.330.0700.1683
WatkinsST900.120.040−0.0511
Vassell ST9010.290.011−0.0801
NdabaDF10.000.0000.0000
WatsonMF10.000.0000.0000

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WickensGK900.000.0000.0001
Ayina CB900.050.0000.02214
BaldwinCB900.000.0510.05510
Leak CB900.000.0000.0327
EfeteRWB710.000.0700.0436
RandallCM770.010.0520.0756
King CM900.000.0600.0755
ReidLWB440.000.0000.0011
BrophyRW900.290.0410.0230
WhiteST710.050.0720.0222
MurrayLW900.060.010−0.0101
HarmonDF460.000.0400.0426
Dhanda MF190.000.0000.0111
SimsFW190.000.0000.0113
KhelaMF130.000.0000.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Mayo and Polworth: 5 passesMayo and Watkins: 5 passesPolworth and Vassell: 5 passesMayo and Wright: 6 passesWright and Donnelly: 6 passesDeas and Watkins: 6 passesKennedy and Vassell: 6 passesMayo and Vassell: 7 passesWright and Polworth: 7 passesArmstrong and Watkins: 7 passesArmstrong and Vassell: 7 passesPolworth and Watkins: 7 passesKennedy and Watkins: 7 passesWright and Findlay: 8 passesMayo and Donnelly: 10 passesFindlay and Polworth: 10 passesDeas and Vassell: 10 passesPolworth and Donnelly: 10 passesMayo and Armstrong: 11 passesArmstrong and Kennedy: 11 passesFindlay and Deas: 12 passesDeas and Polworth: 12 passesPolworth and Kennedy: 13 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 18 passesDeas and Kennedy: 23 passesDennis: 6 completed passesMayo: 31 completed passesWright: 20 completed passesFindlay: 22 completed passesDeas: 42 completed passesArmstrong: 25 completed passesPolworth: 47 completed passesDonnelly: 21 completed passesKennedy: 30 completed passesWatkins: 14 completed passesVassell: 16 completed passes15417611312210239DennisMayoWrightFindlayDeasArmstrongPolworthDonnellyKennedyWatkinsVassellStarters until 89' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Ross County

Baldwin and Efete: 3 passesBaldwin and Reid: 3 passesBaldwin and Murray: 3 passesRandall and Murray: 3 passesRandall and King: 4 passesAyina and King: 5 passesBaldwin and King: 5 passesBaldwin and White: 5 passesLeak and Reid: 5 passesWickens: 6 completed passesAyina: 7 completed passesBaldwin: 18 completed passesLeak: 4 completed passesEfete: 4 completed passesReid: 6 completed passesRandall: 7 completed passesKing: 12 completed passesBrophy: 3 completed passesWhite: 2 completed passesMurray: 5 completed passes40285422443218272615WickensAyinaBaldwinLeakEfeteReidRandallKingBrophyWhiteMurrayStarters until 44' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
DeasKennedy14
ArmstrongPolworth10
DeasVassell9
KennedyDeas9
PolworthKennedy8

Ross County

FromToPasses
BaldwinWhite7
KingBaldwin6
RandallMurray5
HarmonBrophy5
ReidLeak4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

5+0.85−2.39−2.97−1.14−0.54−3.26−0.310+4.36−0.83−2.94−0.75+1.36+1.75−0.29+3.76+2.53+0.41−2.43−1.70−3.11−0.80−0.70−1.64+1.50−0.90−0.32+1.30−0.22+1.53−4.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 31 matches

Ross County

2−2.29+1.519+2.96−3.04−1.312+4.59+2.03−3.210+2.310+0.78+3.16+0.92−1.58+3.09+2.64−0.440.01−1.23−0.62−3.21−1.71−0.72+1.02+0.31−1.30−1.20−0.50−0.70−0.50−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 31 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.030.010.020.020.060.010.030.010.050.070.030.010.040.060.21−0.020.060.090.01−0.01−0.05−0.090.170.33LessMore

Ross County

0.010.010.020.030.010.010.010.040.04−0.010.030.030.03−0.010.04−0.01−0.080.010.090.09LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackKilmarnock1.24 → 1.24Ross County0.98 → 0.96Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.20 → 1.19Ross County1.54 → 1.54

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
11th60%65%+5
Bottom3%3%0
St. Johnstone
11th35%30%−5

From the forecast before the match (6 April 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockRoss County
Expected goals1.750.82
Win59%17%
Expected Points2.010.74
Clean sheet44%17%

Kilmarnock 59%Draw 24%Ross County 17%

Most likely score 1–0, 13%. Both sides score 47%.

Ross County goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%6%3%4%1%4%1%7%6%2%3%2%1%1%13%12%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 6 April 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawRoss County win
Ross County
11th60%65%60%41%
Bottom3%3%2%1%
St. Johnstone
11th35%30%35%53%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. D1–130 MarHearts (A)xG 1.55–1.61
  2. W5–216 MarSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.91–0.74
  3. D2–22 MarDundee FC (A)xG 1.56–1.53
  4. L1–228 FebRangers (H)xG 1.36–0.73
  5. W2–024 FebAberdeen (H)xG 1.94–0.48
  6. D1–117 FebCeltic (A)xG 0.95–1.49

Ross County

  1. L1–230 MarAberdeen (A)xG 0.82–0.71
  2. W2–116 MarHearts (H)xG 1.74–1.27
  3. D2–213 MarHibernian (H)xG 1.14–1.33
  4. L0–22 MarHibernian (A)xG 0.35–1.27
  5. D1–127 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.02–0.67
  6. W3–224 FebLivingston (H)xG 1.06–1.13

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockRoss County
Position4th11th
Played3131
Won, drawn, lost11–⁠12–⁠86–⁠9–⁠16
Points45 (1.45 per game)27 (0.87 per game)
Expected Points per game1.430.98
Goals40–⁠3429–⁠53
xG per game1.26–⁠1.130.88–⁠1.56
Home: points, xG per game1.94, 1.34–⁠0.901.27, 0.94–⁠1.21
Away: points, xG per game0.93, 1.16–⁠1.370.50, 0.82–⁠1.90
ManagerDerek McInnes (69)Don Cowie (8)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackKilmarnock1.24, 4thRoss County0.98, 10thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.20, 3rdRoss County1.54, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarKilmarnock attack: 1.24Ross County attack: 0.981.240.98Ross CountyKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarKilmarnock defence: 1.20Ross County defence: 1.541.541.20

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockRoss County
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−18%−22%−20%+25%
Counter-attacks−5%+19%−49%+50%
Set pieces+23%−6%−38%−6%
Penalties−18%−35%−100%−18%
Headers+33%−14%−26%−21%
Left side−5%−29%−14%+21%
Centre−8%−12%−34%+25%
Right side−5%−5%−26%+5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdRoss County concededLeft side−5%+5%Centre−8%+25%Right side−5%+21%Open play−18%+25%Counter-attacks−5%+50%Set pieces+23%−6%Headers+33%−21%

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−14%−5%Centre−34%−12%Right side−26%−29%Open play−20%−22%Counter-attacks−49%+19%Set pieces−38%−6%Headers−26%−14%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockRoss County

1.26xG0.88
1.13xG against1.56
46%Possession44%
12.9Shots9.7
12.2Shots against15.6
4.1Shots on target3.2
2.1Big chances1.5
22.4Touches in the opposition box17.1
332Passes339
64%Pass accuracy66%
6.3Corners4.6
49%Field tilt43%
32.9Final-third entries31.6
12.1Box entries8.9
14.4Passes per defensive action15.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.071.08
Ahead191.281.22
Behind251.571.15

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level471.011.22
Ahead150.891.68
Behind280.652.09

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.154–5
16–300.200.146–4
31–450.210.244–11
46–600.240.076–5
61–750.180.2210–4
76–900.290.3110–5

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.142–4
16–300.150.246–8
31–450.140.363–9
46–600.140.217–8
61–750.120.244–6
76–900.150.387–18

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 30O'Hara 1Mayo 29Watson 1Wright 21Deas 13Findlay 29Armstro… 30ArmstrongMayo 1Watson 20Davies 2Watkins 1Polworth 14Ndaba 6Deas 5Lyons 20Donnelly 12Magennis 7Kennedy 19Ndaba 9Deas 1Watkins 26Kennedy 4Vassell 26Ndaba 2Findlay 13-5-2 in 12 of 31 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (12), 4-4-2 (11), 4-1-4-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Ross County

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLaidlaw 19Wickens 12Nightingale 14Ayina 9Efete 5Baldwin 23Leak 26Borthwick-Jacks… 2Borthwick-JacksonHarmon 1Brown 24Efete 3Randall 1Randall 17Sheaf 4Jenks 4Loturi 13Allardice 10King 5Purrington 11Reid 10Harmon 6Dhanda 16Sims 4Loturi 4White 22Sims 2Murray 28Brophy 7Dhanda 33-4-1-2 in 14 of 31 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (14), 4-4-2 (6), 3-5-2 (2), 4-5-1 (2), 4-3-1-2 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
25 November 2023Ross County0–0KilmarnockxG 0.88–0.65
2 September 2023Kilmarnock0–1Ross CountyxG 1.42–0.72
28 May 2023Kilmarnock3–1Ross CountyxG 1.46–1.25
28 January 2023Ross County3–0KilmarnockxG 1.74–1.38
22 October 2022Kilmarnock1–0Ross CountyxG 1.10–0.70
20 August 2022Ross County1–0KilmarnockxG 0.65–0.70

10 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 3, Ross County won 4, and 3 were drawn. Goals 13–14 and xG 1.23–1.21 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong312,6016100.270.29
Kennedy242,233330.160.17
Vassell262,150720.260.06
Watson212,010520.150.10

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Sims8789200.300.05
Murray292,3381040.240.10
White221,890420.270.04
Dhanda262,022340.050.20

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.