Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Ross County 2–1 Kilmarnock

Saturday 26 October 2024, 15:00 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 9 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Matthew McDermid · Attendance 3,419

Ross County White 61', Wright 82' (og)

Kilmarnock Ndaba 39' · Donnelly sent off 60'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountyKilmarnock
Goals21
xG0.820.72
Expected Points1.371.23

Ross County 33%Draw 39%Kilmarnock 28%

Most likely score 0–0, 19%. Final score 2–1, 6%.

Kilmarnock goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+5%5%6%6%2%1%1%19%17%16%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.7510153045607590HTDonnelly (Kilmarnock), second yellow card 60'Samuel on for Leak, 65'Allardice on for Denholm and Brophy on for Hale, 77'Efete on for Reid, 78'Nisbet on for Chilvers, 88'Wright on for Findlay, 46'Watson on for Vassell, 69'Burroughs on for Armstrong, 78'Anderson on for Kennedy, 88'White 61'Wright 82' (og)Ndaba 39'Ross County 0.82Kilmarnock 0.7200.250.50.7510153045607590HTDonnelly (Kilmarnock), second yellow card 60'Samuel on for Leak, 65'Allardice on for Denholm and Brophy on for Hale, 77'Efete on for Reid, 78'Nisbet on for Chilvers, 88'Wright on for Findlay, 46'Watson on for Vassell, 69'Burroughs on for Armstrong, 78'Anderson on for Kennedy, 88'White 61'Wright 82' (og)Ndaba 39'0.820.72Ross CountyKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountyKilmarnock

0.82 −0.14xG0.72 −0.68
0.53 −0.43xG on target1.04 −0.01
14 +4Shots9 −4
3 −0.7Shots on target2 −0.9
1 −0.2Big chances2 −0.1
19 +6Touches in the opposition box10 −9
58% +21Possession42% −1
433 +141Passes305 0
77% +13Pass accuracy67% 0
55% +23Field tilt45% +6
42 +12Final-third entries29 −3
10 +3.8Box entries7 −1.9
15.4 −1Passes per defensive action18.5 +2
5 +2.3Corners5 −0.4
12 −6Tackles16 +2
4 −7.6Interceptions9 +1.2
35 +5Clearances16 −15
1 −1.9Saves2 −1.0
10 −1Fouls10 −1
0 −1.2Offsides1 −0.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

Wright 61', 0.22 xGWhite 66', 0.10 xGChilvers 64', 0.05 xGChilvers 54', 0.04 xGChilvers 71', 0.04 xGChilvers 31', 0.03 xGChilvers 45', 0.03 xGHale 66', 0.03 xGChilvers 77', 0.03 xGAllardice 81', 0.03 xGHale 31', 0.02 xGDenholm 50', 0.02 xGLeak 22', 0.01 xGWhite 61', 0.18 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals63%0.52 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.52 xG, 1 goal2%0.02 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals34%0.28 xGEdge of the box: 8 shots, 0.28 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Watkins 29', 0.34 xGFindlay 38', 0.22 xGLyons 59', 0.03 xGArmstrong 51', 0.02 xGArmstrong 57', 0.02 xGArmstrong 60', 0.02 xGLyons 86', 0.02 xGLyons 26', 0.01 xGNdaba 39', 0.03 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals81%0.58 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.58 xG, 0 goals4%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals14%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.10 xG, 1 goal1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountyKilmarnock

0.36 10 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.38 8 shots, 1 goal
0.46 4 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.34 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
60 min (62%) · Ross County 0.34, Kilmarnock 0.61 xG
Ross County ahead
14 min (15%) · Ross County 0.00, Kilmarnock 0.02 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
22 min (23%) · Ross County 0.49, Kilmarnock 0.09 xG

Line-ups

1420321581043926LaidlawWrightLopataLeakBrownDenholmRandallChilversReidHaleWhiteYellow cardGoal65'77'88'78'77'Ross County 3-5-2Don Cowie20561731182210923McCrorieMayoDeasFindlayNdabaArmstrongLyonsDonnellyKennedyVassellWatkinsGoalYellow cardYellow cardSent off, second yellow46'78'88'69'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes

Ross County substitutes

  • 65' Samuel for Leak
  • 77' Allardice for Denholm
  • 77' Brophy for Hale
  • 78' Efete for Reid
  • 88' Nisbet for Chilvers

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Wright for Findlay · own goal 82', yellow card 90+6'
  • 69' Watson for Vassell
  • 78' Burroughs for Armstrong
  • 88' Anderson for Kennedy

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0000.0330
WrightCB900.220.0100.03311
LopataCB900.000.2310.07910
LeakCB650.010.0100.0558
BrownRWB900.000.0620.1262
DenholmCM770.020.0100.0042
Randall CM900.000.0220.0048
ChilversCM880.220.2200.0873
ReidLWB780.000.0620.0854
HaleST770.050.0200.0110
WhiteST9010.280.0710.0134
SamuelFW250.000.040−0.0700
AllardiceMF130.030.1100.2542
BrophyFW130.000.020−0.0310
EfeteMF120.000.010−0.0100
NisbetMF20.000.000−0.0101

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrorieGK900.000.0100.0441
MayoRB900.000.0100.0668
DeasCB900.000.0300.07511
FindlayCB460.220.0000.0832
NdabaLB9010.030.0100.0231
ArmstrongRM780.060.2410.2640
Lyons CM900.070.0110.0016
Donnelly CM600.000.0210.0121
KennedyLM880.000.1020.1563
VassellST690.000.000−0.0201
WatkinsST900.340.010−0.0311
Wright DF440.000.0000.0828
WatsonMF210.000.011−0.0302
BurroughsDF120.000.0000.0112
AndersonFW20.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Lopata and Randall: 4 passesLopata and White: 4 passesWright and White: 4 passesLeak and White: 4 passesDenholm and White: 4 passesRandall and White: 5 passesReid and Chilvers: 5 passesLaidlaw and Lopata: 6 passesLaidlaw and Leak: 6 passesLopata and Denholm: 7 passesWright and Randall: 7 passesBrown and Chilvers: 7 passesReid and Hale: 7 passesWright and Denholm: 8 passesLeak and Randall: 8 passesLaidlaw and Wright: 9 passesBrown and Denholm: 10 passesWright and Brown: 13 passesLeak and Denholm: 13 passesLopata and Wright: 16 passesLopata and Leak: 17 passesLeak and Reid: 17 passesLaidlaw: 16 completed passesLopata: 30 completed passesWright: 31 completed passesLeak: 37 completed passesBrown: 21 completed passesRandall: 19 completed passesDenholm: 24 completed passesReid: 22 completed passesChilvers: 15 completed passesHale: 7 completed passesWhite: 9 completed passes1204328154310926LaidlawLopataWrightLeakBrownRandallDenholmReidChilversHaleWhiteStarters until 65' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Kilmarnock

Mayo and Vassell: 3 passesDeas and Lyons: 3 passesDeas and Donnelly: 3 passesNdaba and Watkins: 3 passesNdaba and Vassell: 3 passesLyons and Kennedy: 3 passesMcCrorie and Findlay: 4 passesMcCrorie and Deas: 4 passesMcCrorie and Donnelly: 4 passesMayo and Findlay: 4 passesMayo and Donnelly: 4 passesFindlay and Donnelly: 4 passesNdaba and Kennedy: 4 passesLyons and Donnelly: 4 passesMcCrorie and Mayo: 5 passesMayo and Armstrong: 6 passesMayo and Lyons: 6 passesFindlay and Deas: 6 passesArmstrong and Kennedy: 6 passesArmstrong and Lyons: 7 passesArmstrong and Watkins: 9 passesArmstrong and Donnelly: 12 passesMcCrorie: 8 completed passesMayo: 19 completed passesFindlay: 13 completed passesDeas: 12 completed passesNdaba: 11 completed passesArmstrong: 16 completed passesLyons: 19 completed passesDonnelly: 19 completed passesKennedy: 8 completed passesWatkins: 8 completed passesVassell: 2 completed passes20517631182210239McCrorieMayoFindlayDeasNdabaArmstrongLyonsDonnellyKennedyWatkinsVassellStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
WrightLopata15
LopataLeak11
WrightBrown10
LopataWright10
BrownDenholm9

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
DonnellyArmstrong8
ArmstrongDonnelly7
LyonsArmstrong7
MayoArmstrong7
ArmstrongWatkins7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

9+4.113+4.98+2.27+0.28+0.68+1.37+0.29+2.75−1.14−0.15+1.92−1.32−5.04+0.75+1.61−1.13−0.10−3.12−0.61−0.80−1.31−0.320.01+0.30−0.32+1.400.00−0.81−5.613−6.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Kilmarnock

4+0.55−4.414−4.24−3.87+1.92−2.56+0.860.011+5.65−0.16+1.83−0.14−0.24−0.54+1.05+1.42+0.43−1.02−1.81−0.91−0.60−1.00−0.84+1.51+0.52+1.60−0.40−0.51+0.42−6.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.010.010.010.030.040.010.010.010.010.040.020.030.030.070.090.070.010.01−0.03−0.01−0.100.23LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.030.020.010.030.010.010.050.020.020.020.040.020.010.050.060.020.02−0.040.070.24LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackRoss County1.03 → 1.03Kilmarnock1.23 → 1.22Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.58 → 1.56Kilmarnock1.38 → 1.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
Top six7%11%+4
11th22%21%−1
Bottom30%21%−9
Kilmarnock
Top six49%40%−9
11th5%7%+2
Bottom3%5%+2
Hearts
Top six41%42%+1
Bottom3%4%+1
St. Johnstone
Top six7%8%+1
11th22%20%−2
Bottom29%31%+2

From the forecast before the match (26 October 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountyKilmarnock
Expected goals1.241.31
Win34%38%
Expected Points1.311.41
Clean sheet27%29%

Ross County 34%Draw 28%Kilmarnock 38%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Kilmarnock goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+8%7%3%1%9%8%4%1%6%8%5%2%2%3%2%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 26 October 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawKilmarnock win
Ross County
Top six7%11%6%4%
11th22%21%22%22%
Bottom30%21%32%37%
Kilmarnock
Top six49%40%46%60%
11th5%7%5%3%
Bottom3%5%3%1%
Hearts
Top six41%42%43%39%
Bottom3%4%3%3%
St. Johnstone
Top six7%8%7%7%
11th22%20%22%24%
Bottom29%31%28%27%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. L0–319 OctSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.26–3.16
  2. L1–26 OctCeltic (H)xG 0.97–1.51
  3. D1–128 SepHearts (A)xG 0.84–1.94
  4. D3–321 SepSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.28–0.55
  5. W2–014 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.43–0.66
  6. L0–131 AugAberdeen (H)xG 1.05–0.35

Kilmarnock

  1. W1–020 OctRangers (H)xG 0.63–1.14
  2. W3–25 OctDundee FC (A)xG 2.72–0.62
  3. D3–328 SepDundee United (H)xG 2.31–2.73
  4. D2–214 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.59–1.53
  5. D1–11 SepHibernian (H)xG 2.54–0.44
  6. L0–225 AugAberdeen (A)xG 0.43–1.66

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountyKilmarnock
Position10th7th
Played98
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠4–⁠42–⁠3–⁠3
Points7 (0.78 per game)9 (1.12 per game)
Expected Points per game1.161.22
Goals8–⁠1710–⁠17
xG per game0.96–⁠1.611.40–⁠1.63
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.39–⁠0.881.25, 1.80–⁠1.52
Away: points, xG per game0.50, 0.41–⁠2.521.00, 0.99–⁠1.73
ManagerDon Cowie (24)Derek McInnes (84)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackRoss County1.03, 11thKilmarnock1.23, 6thDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.58, 12thKilmarnock1.38, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctRoss County attack: 1.03Kilmarnock attack: 1.231.231.03KilmarnockRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctRoss County defence: 1.58Kilmarnock defence: 1.381.581.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountyKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−57%+45%−17%+29%
Counter-attacks−46%+31%−81%−98%
Set pieces−40%−7%+82%−6%
Penalties+196%−100%−17%+150%
Headers−35%−4%+31%−41%
Left side−36%−14%−17%−21%
Centre−54%+43%+11%+19%
Right side−59%+45%+9%+12%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−36%+12%Centre−54%+19%Right side−59%−21%Open play−57%+29%Counter-attacks−46%−98%Set pieces−40%−6%Headers−35%−41%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdRoss County concededLeft side−17%+45%Centre+11%+43%Right side+9%−14%Open play−17%+45%Counter-attacks−81%+31%Set pieces+82%−7%Headers+31%−4%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountyKilmarnock

0.96xG1.40
1.61xG against1.63
37%Possession43%
10.1Shots12.6
14.2Shots against15.4
3.7Shots on target2.9
1.2Big chances2.1
13.2Touches in the opposition box19.0
292Passes305
64%Pass accuracy66%
2.7Corners5.4
32%Field tilt39%
30.5Final-third entries32.3
6.2Box entries8.9
16.9Passes per defensive action16.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.121.31
Ahead220.841.21
Behind240.792.50

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.171.67
Ahead42.653.70
Behind491.441.41

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.271–0
16–300.130.311–2
31–450.340.203–3
46–600.030.230–3
61–750.130.200–2
76–900.220.393–7

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.230.181–2
16–300.040.290–4
31–450.130.370–3
46–600.130.272–2
61–750.340.152–1
76–900.520.365–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTLaidlaw 9Wright 9Efete 2Lopata 6Leak 6Nightingale 3Campbell 1Brown 4Efete 3Denholm 1Randall 9Loturi 2Denholm 1Chilvers 3Allardice 2Harmon 2Nisbet 6Grieves 1Campbell 4Harmon 3Denholm 1White 4Brophy 3Chilvers 1Hale 9Denholm 13-5-2 in 4 of 9 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (4), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMcCrorie 4O'Hara 4Lyons 2Armstrong 2Mayo 2Mayo 4Deas 2Wright 2Findlay 7Ndaba 1Ndaba 4Lyons 2Deas 1Armstrong 5Watson 1Wright 1Watson 4Lyons 2Watkins 1Polworth 4Donnelly 3Kennedy 7Murray 1Vassell 7Cameron 1Watkins 4Donnelly 1Deas 14-4-2 in 4 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (4), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
6 April 2024Kilmarnock1–0Ross CountyxG 0.98–0.47
25 November 2023Ross County0–0KilmarnockxG 0.88–0.65
2 September 2023Kilmarnock0–1Ross CountyxG 1.42–0.72
28 May 2023Kilmarnock3–1Ross CountyxG 1.46–1.25
28 January 2023Ross County3–0KilmarnockxG 1.74–1.38
22 October 2022Kilmarnock1–0Ross CountyxG 1.10–0.70

11 league meetings since 2020/21: Ross County won 4, Kilmarnock won 4, and 3 were drawn. Goals 14–14 and xG 1.14–1.20 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Hale9725400.420.01
White5521100.240.02
Brown4460000.000.13
Leak6615000.040.08

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kennedy7612210.200.36
Watkins5457300.480.04
Vassell7523000.370.05
Armstrong7565020.060.14

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.