Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Dundee United 2–2 Hearts

Saturday 24 December 2022, 14:00 · Tannadice Park · Round 18 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee Colin Steven · Attendance 10,224

Dundee United Fletcher 20', Levitt 47'

Hearts M. Smith 41', Shankland 90+4' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee UnitedHearts
Goals22
xG0.791.72
Non-penalty xG0.790.93
Expected Points0.622.12

Dundee United 12%Draw 25%Hearts 62%

Most likely score 1–1, 16%. Final score 2–2, 5%.

Hearts goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+4%6%2%3%6%2%1%5%5%2%1%1%16%14%16%13%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTWatt on for Fletcher, 76'Graham on for Behich, 89'Sibbald on for Levitt, 90+5'Rowles on for Halkett, 6'Sibbick on for Kingsley, 39'Clark on for Gordon, 76'Grant on for Halliday and Forrest on for Devlin, 77'Fletcher 20'Levitt 47'M. Smith 41'Shankland 90+4' (pen)Hearts 1.72Dundee United 0.7900.511.520153045607590HTWatt on for Fletcher, 76'Graham on for Behich, 89'Sibbald on for Levitt, 90+5'Rowles on for Halkett, 6'Sibbick on for Kingsley, 39'Clark on for Gordon, 76'Grant on for Halliday and Forrest on for Devlin, 77'Fletcher 20'Levitt 47'M. Smith 41'Shankland 90+4' (pen)1.720.79Dundee UnitedHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee UnitedHearts

0.79 −0.08xG1.72 +0.15
0.79Non-penalty xG0.93
1.36 +0.45xG on target2.04 +0.67
11 +1Shots14 +2
6 +2.3Shots on target3 −1.4
1 +0.1Big chances3 +0.8
9 −10Touches in the opposition box30 +9
33% −14Possession67% +15
217 −158Passes454 +33
63% −9Pass accuracy81% +6
36% −9Field tilt64% +16
23 −14Final-third entries41 +8
7 −2.3Box entries15 +4.0
13.4 −3Passes per defensive action13.7 −1
6 +0.6Corners9 +4.5
11 −4Tackles7 −11
15 +6.1Interceptions2 −7.2
23 +1Clearances16 −1
1 −2.1Saves4 +0.2
15 +5Fouls8 −2
3 +1.7Offsides3 +1.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee United

Fletcher 58', 0.27 xGFletcher 27', 0.10 xGFletcher 32', 0.08 xGHarkes 33', 0.07 xGMiddleton 10', 0.06 xGMiddleton 23', 0.04 xGBehich 45+12', 0.03 xGFreeman 53', 0.02 xGDjoum 83', 0.02 xGLevitt 47', 0.08 xG, goalFletcher 20', 0.04 xG, goal9%0.07 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 0 goals56%0.45 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.45 xG, 0 goals4%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals26%0.21 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.21 xG, 2 goals5%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Sibbick 86', 0.23 xGDevlin 34', 0.11 xGMcKay 7', 0.10 xGShankland 54', 0.07 xGMcKay 18', 0.05 xGForrest 90', 0.05 xGGinnelly 90+1', 0.05 xGGinnelly 31', 0.04 xGM. Smith 45+4', 0.03 xGGinnelly 82', 0.03 xGShankland 86', 0.03 xGCochrane 57', 0.02 xGM. Smith 41', 0.11 xG, goal25%0.23 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.23 xG, 0 goals43%0.40 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.40 xG, 1 goal8%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals25%0.23 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee UnitedHearts

0.58 6 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.58 9 shots, 1 goal
0.21 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.35 4 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
39 min (36%) · Dundee United 0.20, Hearts 0.18 xG
Dundee United ahead
68 min (64%) · Dundee United 0.59, Hearts 1.54 xG

Line-ups

121232210191623159BirighittiSmithEdwardsMcMannFreemanDjoumLevittBehichHarkesMiddletonFletcherYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoal90+5'89'76'Dundee United 3-4-2-1Liam Fox14319214771630918GordonHalkettKingsleyCochraneM. SmithDevlinSnodgrassHallidayGinnellyShanklandMcKayGoalYellow cardYellow cardGoal76'6'39'77'77'Hearts 3-4-3Robbie Neilson

Dundee United substitutes

  • 76' Watt for Fletcher · yellow card 84'
  • 89' Graham for Behich
  • 90+5' Sibbald for Levitt

Hearts substitutes

  • 6' Rowles for Halkett
  • 39' Sibbick for Kingsley
  • 76' Clark for Gordon
  • 77' Forrest for Devlin
  • 77' Grant for Halliday

Players

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Birighitti GK900.000.0100.0412
SmithCB900.000.0200.0757
EdwardsCB900.000.0000.01110
McMann CB900.000.0000.0219
Freeman RWB900.020.0100.0312
DjoumCM900.020.0000.0106
LevittCM9010.080.2020.2944
BehichLWB8910.030.0620.1373
HarkesAM900.070.0000.0112
MiddletonAM9010.090.6130.2142
FletcherST7610.490.0200.0113
Watt FW140.000.000−0.0102
GrahamDF10.000.0000.0001
SibbaldMF00.000.0000.0000

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK760.000.0000.0222
HalkettCB60.000.0000.0000
KingsleyCB390.000.0100.0210
CochraneCB900.020.0910.2395
M. SmithRWB9010.140.0710.20132
DevlinCM7710.110.3130.1053
Snodgrass CM900.000.3010.0641
Halliday LWB770.000.041−0.0110
GinnellyRW900.130.0420.0961
ShanklandST9010.890.051−0.1524
McKayLW900.150.2610.3032
RowlesDF840.000.0000.0524
SibbickDF510.230.0000.0421
ClarkGK140.000.0000.0000
ForrestMF130.050.020−0.0300
GrantMF130.000.0100.0211

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee United

Birighitti and Behich: 3 passesEdwards and McMann: 3 passesEdwards and Levitt: 3 passesSmith and Freeman: 3 passesSmith and Harkes: 3 passesSmith and Middleton: 3 passesFreeman and Djoum: 3 passesDjoum and Levitt: 3 passesMcMann and Behich: 4 passesFreeman and Levitt: 4 passesFreeman and Middleton: 4 passesDjoum and Fletcher: 4 passesLevitt and Fletcher: 4 passesHarkes and Fletcher: 4 passesBirighitti and Fletcher: 5 passesEdwards and Smith: 5 passesLevitt and Harkes: 5 passesMiddleton and Fletcher: 7 passesFreeman and Harkes: 8 passesBehich and Levitt: 8 passesBehich and Fletcher: 8 passesMcMann and Levitt: 9 passesBehich and Middleton: 12 passesBirighitti: 10 completed passesEdwards: 9 completed passesMcMann: 9 completed passesSmith: 12 completed passesFreeman: 11 completed passesBehich: 17 completed passesDjoum: 9 completed passesLevitt: 19 completed passesHarkes: 11 completed passesMiddleton: 13 completed passesFletcher: 13 completed passes112322216101923159BirighittiEdwardsMcMannSmithFreemanBehichDjoumLevittHarkesMiddletonFletcherStarters until 76' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee United

FromToPasses
MiddletonBehich7
LevittBehich6
FletcherMiddleton6
McMannLevitt6
FreemanHarkes5

Hearts

FromToPasses
SnodgrassCochrane14
CochraneSnodgrass11
RowlesSibbick11
DevlinSnodgrass10
SnodgrassDevlin10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee United

8+1.817+2.310+3.95−1.16+1.14−1.28+0.57+0.49+3.05+0.23−2.15+1.12−2.74−2.110+5.330.04+2.32−1.86+3.31−0.60−1.20−1.10−1.81−0.41+0.40−0.21+0.40−0.43+2.00−4.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 16 matches

Hearts

3−1.72−4.09−3.63−3.95+0.84−3.64−2.44−2.28−0.45−1.04−0.65+1.53−2.12−3.11−3.12−1.42−0.73+0.11−3.54+0.41−0.90−0.80−1.23+0.91+0.60−0.30−0.62+1.91+0.41−6.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 16 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee United

0.040.010.010.020.020.030.010.020.100.040.010.010.010.05−0.030.03−0.020.060.200.17LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.010.010.020.010.010.010.060.020.010.020.020.090.050.080.040.010.040.130.020.08−0.01−0.190.190.16LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackDundee United0.98 → 0.97Hearts1.29 → 1.31Defence (lower is better)Dundee United1.42 → 1.44Hearts1.27 → 1.26

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee United
Top six2%2%0
11th26%27%+1
Bottom26%26%0
Hearts
Top six89%87%−2
Ross County
11th26%25%−1
Bottom44%45%+1
Kilmarnock
Top six2%2%0
11th27%28%+1
Bottom22%21%−1

From the forecast before the match (24 December 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee UnitedHearts
Expected goals1.231.35
Win33%39%
Expected Points1.271.45
Clean sheet26%29%

Dundee United 33%Draw 28%Hearts 39%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hearts goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+8%7%3%1%9%9%4%1%6%8%5%2%2%3%2%1%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 24 December 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee United winDrawHearts win
Dundee United
Top six2%4%2%1%
11th26%24%27%28%
Bottom26%17%26%33%
Hearts
Top six89%84%87%93%
Ross County
11th26%26%25%28%
Bottom44%48%45%41%
Kilmarnock
Top six2%2%2%2%
11th27%28%28%26%
Bottom22%26%21%19%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee United

  1. L0–112 NovAberdeen (A)xG 0.32–1.18
  2. W4–09 NovKilmarnock (H)xG 0.83–0.85
  3. L2–45 NovCeltic (A)xG 1.05–3.07
  4. L0–129 OctMotherwell (H)xG 0.75–0.92
  5. L1–222 OctSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.70–1.29
  6. D1–115 OctRoss County (A)xG 1.64–0.35

Hearts

  1. W3–117 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 2.40–1.09
  2. D1–112 NovLivingston (H)xG 2.95–1.84
  3. L0–19 NovRangers (A)xG 0.50–1.82
  4. W3–26 NovMotherwell (H)xG 2.61–2.25
  5. W2–130 OctRoss County (A)xG 0.65–1.44
  6. L3–422 OctCeltic (H)xG 2.90–2.82

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee UnitedHearts
Position12th4th
Played1616
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠3–⁠107–⁠3–⁠6
Points12 (0.75 per game)24 (1.50 per game)
Expected Points per game0.961.24
Goals17–⁠3127–⁠26
xG per game0.87–⁠1.671.57–⁠1.76
Home: points, xG per game1.12, 0.96–⁠1.622.00, 2.20–⁠1.67
Away: points, xG per game0.38, 0.78–⁠1.711.00, 0.94–⁠1.84
ManagerLiam Fox (11)Robbie Neilson (54)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackDundee United0.98, 8thHearts1.29, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Dundee United1.42, 11thHearts1.27, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecDundee United attack: 0.98Hearts attack: 1.291.290.98HeartsDundee UnitedDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecDundee United defence: 1.42Hearts defence: 1.271.421.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee UnitedHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−36%+34%+25%+51%
Counter-attacks−21%+259%−64%−55%
Set pieces−43%+11%−1%+25%
Penalties−3%−36%+61%−3%
Headers−51%+17%−14%+42%
Left side−22%+75%+7%+26%
Centre−40%+30%+16%+53%
Right side−46%+6%+25%+40%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdHearts concededLeft side−22%+40%Centre−40%+53%Right side−46%+26%Open play−36%+51%Counter-attacks−21%−55%Set pieces−43%+25%Headers−51%+42%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdDundee United concededLeft side+7%+6%Centre+16%+30%Right side+25%+75%Open play+25%+34%Counter-attacks−64%+259%Set pieces−1%+11%Headers−14%+17%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee UnitedHearts

0.87xG1.57
1.67xG against1.76
46%Possession52%
10.1Shots12.2
15.2Shots against14.9
3.7Shots on target4.4
0.9Big chances2.2
19.0Touches in the opposition box21.4
376Passes421
71%Pass accuracy75%
5.4Corners4.5
45%Field tilt48%
37.4Final-third entries32.9
9.3Box entries11.0
16.6Passes per defensive action14.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level340.671.84
Ahead160.841.17
Behind401.051.72

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level342.001.62
Ahead301.292.06
Behind261.331.60

xG by period

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.263–5
16–300.080.172–1
31–450.160.413–9
46–600.100.322–7
61–750.220.174–1
76–900.150.333–8

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.220.192–5
16–300.250.176–2
31–450.310.263–0
46–600.220.345–6
61–750.180.353–5
76–900.380.448–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee United

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTEriksson 9Birighitti 7Smith 10Middleton 2Cudjoe 2Edwards 16Graham 8McMann 6Mulgrew 4Freeman 9Smith 6Niskanen 1Levitt 13Djoum 3Mulgrew 1Sibbald 7McGrath 3Harkes 3Behich 12McMann 2Sibbald 1McGrath 10Harkes 5Sibbald 1Middleton 7Watt 5Fletcher 3Fletcher 7Watt 6McGrath 13-4-2-1 in 4 of 16 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (4), 5-3-2 (3), 4-3-3 (3), 3-4-1-2 (2), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 15Stewart 1M. Smith 10Sibbick 2Atkinson 2Sibbick 7Neilson 4Halkett 3Kingsley 7Rowles 7Cochrane 4Cochrane 10Halliday 5Kiomourtzoglou 1Devlin 9Halliday 4Kiomourtzoglou 4Snodgrass 8Grant 2M. Smith 1Ginnelly 6Forrest 4McKay 2Boyce 3McKay 2Kiomourtzoglou 2McKay 9Mackay-Steven 3Forrest 2Shankland 10Humphrys 3Ginnelly 24-2-3-1 in 7 of 16 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 4-1-4-1 (4), 3-4-3 (3), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
14 August 2022Hearts4–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.80–1.21
24 April 2022Dundee United2–3HeartsxG 2.07–3.00
5 March 2022Dundee United2–2HeartsxG 1.28–0.77
6 November 2021Hearts5–2Dundee UnitedxG 2.14–0.85
28 August 2021Dundee United0–2HeartsxG 0.40–2.25

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee United won 0, Hearts won 4, and 1 was a draw. Goals 7–16 and xG 1.16–1.99 per game.

Key players

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Fletcher10837310.400.08
Watt11890310.230.08
Middleton11948110.160.11
McGrath141,171220.100.14

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland121,1621120.870.06
Ginnelly8701320.170.21
Forrest8735300.260.07
Snodgrass8782040.040.24

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.