Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Hearts 4–1 Dundee United

Sunday 14 August 2022, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 3 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Colin Steven · Attendance 18,856

Hearts Shankland 1', McKay 48', Grant 62', Ginnelly 90+5'

Dundee United Fletcher 71' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsDundee United
Goals41
xG1.801.21
Non-penalty xG1.800.43
Expected Points1.820.87

Hearts 50%Draw 31%Dundee United 19%

Most likely score 2–1, 20%. Final score 4–1, 3%.

Dundee United goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+1%5%2%4%7%1%5%10%2%2%10%4%3%1%19%20%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTHaring on for Boyce, 57'Mackay-Steven on for Forrest, 58'Kingsley on for Cochrane, 76'Halliday on for Grant and Ginnelly on for McKay, 77'Sibbald on for Mulgrew and Fletcher on for Cudjoe, 52'Shankland 1'McKay 48'Grant 62'Ginnelly 90+5'Fletcher 71' (pen)Hearts 1.80Dundee United 1.2100.511.520153045607590HTHaring on for Boyce, 57'Mackay-Steven on for Forrest, 58'Kingsley on for Cochrane, 76'Halliday on for Grant and Ginnelly on for McKay, 77'Sibbald on for Mulgrew and Fletcher on for Cudjoe, 52'Shankland 1'McKay 48'Grant 62'Ginnelly 90+5'Fletcher 71' (pen)1.801.21HeartsDundee United

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsDundee United

1.80 +0.43xG1.21 +0.76
1.80Non-penalty xG0.43
3.03 +2.05xG on target1.34 +0.59
13 −0.5Shots10 +1.5
12 +7.0Shots on target3 −1.0
3 +1.0Big chances1 +1.0
17 −4Touches in the opposition box18
52% 0Possession48% −7
470 +68Passes439 +10
81% +12Pass accuracy76% +2
48% +2Field tilt52% +5
46 +12Final-third entries46 +9
12 −0.5Box entries11 +3.0
26.8 +12Passes per defensive action14.8 +1
3 −3.5Corners2 −4.5
18 +2Tackles16 +2
7 −0.5Interceptions17 +10.0
12 −4Clearances9 −12
2 0.0Saves8 +4.0
8 −1.5Fouls11 0.0
1 0.0Offsides0 −0.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Shankland 7', 0.11 xGForrest 6', 0.09 xGMcKay 9', 0.06 xGGrant 20', 0.05 xGForrest 10', 0.04 xGBoyce 22', 0.03 xGSmith 62', 0.03 xGDevlin 13', 0.02 xGShankland 78', 0.01 xGShankland 1', 0.61 xG, goalGrant 62', 0.52 xG, goalGinnelly 90+5', 0.20 xG, goalMcKay 48', 0.04 xG, goal40%0.72 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.72 xG, 1 goal29%0.52 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.52 xG, 1 goal19%0.35 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.35 xG, 1 goal8%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.14 xG, 1 goal4%0.07 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals

Dundee United

Harkes 90+1', 0.10 xGMiddleton 30', 0.08 xGCudjoe 31', 0.08 xGFletcher 90+1', 0.08 xGCudjoe 18', 0.03 xGCudjoe 51', 0.03 xGEdwards 39', 0.01 xGGraham 80', 0.01 xGEdwards 31', 0.00 xG19%0.08 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals42%0.18 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals35%0.15 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals5%0.02 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsDundee United

1.58 10 shots, 4 goalsOpen play0.39 8 shots, 0 goals
0.06 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.15 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.04 1 shot, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
1 min (1%) · Hearts 0.61, Dundee United 0.00 xG
Hearts ahead
95 min (99%) · Hearts 1.19, Dundee United 1.21 xG

Line-ups

12415191471710189GordonSmithHalkettRowlesCochraneDevlinGrantForrestBoyceMcKayShanklandGoalGoalGoal76'77'58'57'77'Hearts 4-2-3-1Robbie Neilson121261623418283215BirighittiSmithEdwardsGrahamBehichHarkesMulgrewMcGrathCudjoeWattMiddletonYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow card52'52'Dundee United 4-3-3Jack Ross

Hearts substitutes

  • 57' Haring for Boyce
  • 58' Mackay-Steven for Forrest
  • 76' Kingsley for Cochrane
  • 77' Halliday for Grant
  • 77' Ginnelly for McKay · goal 90+5'

Dundee United substitutes

  • 52' Sibbald for Mulgrew
  • 52' Fletcher for Cudjoe · goal 71' (pen)

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0231
SmithRB900.030.0210.0954
HalkettCB900.000.0100.0765
RowlesCB9010.000.3120.261011
CochraneLB760.000.0100.0665
DevlinDM9010.020.5410.1947
GrantDM7710.560.1500.1071
ForrestRW580.130.0100.0342
BoyceAM570.030.0800.0511
McKayLW7710.090.1620.23141
ShanklandST90110.720.0310.0140
HaringMF330.000.0000.0122
Mackay-StevenFW320.000.0000.0011
KingsleyDF140.000.0200.0321
HallidayMF130.000.0010.0110
GinnellyFW1310.200.0000.0210

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BirighittiGK900.000.0000.0100
SmithRB900.000.0310.0754
Edwards CB900.010.0400.24125
Graham CB900.010.0210.1186
BehichLB900.000.1810.15210
HarkesCM900.100.0110.0434
MulgrewCM520.000.0100.0335
McGrath CM900.000.1300.1034
Cudjoe RW520.150.0100.0011
WattST900.000.0500.0950
MiddletonLW900.080.0120.0331
SibbaldMF380.000.0100.0122
FletcherFW3810.870.0100.0101

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Rowles and McKay: 5 passesForrest and Boyce: 5 passesForrest and McKay: 5 passesSmith and Forrest: 6 passesDevlin and McKay: 6 passesSmith and Rowles: 7 passesSmith and McKay: 7 passesHalkett and Grant: 7 passesMcKay and Shankland: 7 passesGordon and Halkett: 8 passesGordon and Rowles: 9 passesGrant and McKay: 9 passesDevlin and Forrest: 11 passesHalkett and Devlin: 14 passesSmith and Devlin: 15 passesRowles and Grant: 16 passesDevlin and Grant: 16 passesRowles and Devlin: 19 passesSmith and Halkett: 22 passesRowles and Cochrane: 25 passesRowles and Halkett: 28 passesGordon: 18 completed passesSmith: 38 completed passesRowles: 58 completed passesHalkett: 49 completed passesCochrane: 23 completed passesDevlin: 45 completed passesGrant: 31 completed passesForrest: 12 completed passesBoyce: 10 completed passesMcKay: 20 completed passesShankland: 12 completed passes12154191471710189GordonSmithRowlesHalkettCochraneDevlinGrantForrestBoyceMcKayShanklandStarters until 57' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Dundee United

Birighitti and Behich: 3 passesSmith and Graham: 3 passesEdwards and McGrath: 3 passesEdwards and Cudjoe: 3 passesEdwards and Watt: 3 passesMcGrath and Mulgrew: 3 passesBirighitti and Smith: 4 passesEdwards and Mulgrew: 4 passesGraham and Harkes: 4 passesSmith and Mulgrew: 5 passesMcGrath and Middleton: 5 passesHarkes and Mulgrew: 6 passesMulgrew and Middleton: 6 passesBirighitti and Edwards: 7 passesEdwards and Harkes: 7 passesHarkes and Cudjoe: 7 passesMulgrew and Watt: 7 passesBirighitti and Graham: 8 passesSmith and Harkes: 9 passesGraham and Mulgrew: 9 passesSmith and Edwards: 10 passesBehich and Middleton: 10 passesGraham and McGrath: 12 passesGraham and Behich: 14 passesSmith and Cudjoe: 15 passesEdwards and Graham: 23 passesBirighitti: 16 completed passesSmith: 31 completed passesEdwards: 31 completed passesGraham: 36 completed passesBehich: 17 completed passesMcGrath: 13 completed passesHarkes: 18 completed passesMulgrew: 24 completed passesCudjoe: 14 completed passesWatt: 7 completed passesMiddleton: 16 completed passes121261618234283215BirighittiSmithEdwardsGrahamBehichMcGrathHarkesMulgrewCudjoeWattMiddletonStarters until 52' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
RowlesHalkett16
HalkettRowles16
RowlesCochrane16
HalkettSmith14
CochraneRowles13

Dundee United

FromToPasses
EdwardsGraham17
GrahamEdwards17
GrahamBehich13
BirighittiGraham10
BehichGraham10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

60.08+3.59−2.05−0.52−2.55−2.050.06+2.511+5.08+3.56+1.06−2.03−0.56+1.02−1.52−2.04+1.530.01−0.51+0.50−1.01+0.51−0.50−1.50−0.510.000.000.05−5.01−4.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 2 matches

Dundee United

4+0.53−3.57−3.55−3.03−0.53−2.010+3.03−2.53−4.04+0.56+2.57+3.05−1.08−1.08+1.55+2.05+1.51−3.58+6.00−2.00−1.51+0.54+4.020.000.000.010.00−0.50−1.54−6.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 2 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.060.030.100.020.010.090.030.100.030.050.080.020.03−0.040.05−0.010.020.020.020.200.20LessMore

Dundee United

0.010.030.030.010.010.040.050.030.020.020.030.050.040.04−0.020.030.020.03−0.010.030.140.120.15LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.18AttackHearts1.20 → 1.24Dundee United0.98 → 0.98Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.19 → 1.18Dundee United1.31 → 1.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six75%81%+6
11th2%1%−1
Bottom1%<1%−1
Dundee United
Top six24%20%−4
11th13%15%+2
Bottom10%12%+2

From the forecast before the match (14 August 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsDundee United
Expected goals1.610.89
Win54%20%
Expected Points1.870.87
Clean sheet41%20%

Hearts 54%Draw 26%Dundee United 20%

Most likely score 1–0, 13%. Both sides score 48%.

Dundee United goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+9%7%3%1%5%2%4%1%6%5%2%2%2%13%12%11%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 14 August 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawDundee United win
Hearts
Top six75%81%72%65%
11th2%1%2%3%
Bottom1%<1%1%1%
Dundee United
Top six24%20%24%35%
11th13%15%13%9%
Bottom10%12%9%5%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. D1–17 AugHibernian (A)xG 0.96–1.50
  2. W2–130 JulRoss County (H)xG 1.78–1.54
  3. L1–314 MayRangers (H)xG 0.62–1.22
  4. L1–211 MayMotherwell (A)xG 1.31–1.42
  5. L1–47 MayCeltic (A)xG 0.71–3.57
  6. D0–030 AprRoss County (H)xG 1.46–0.27

Dundee United

  1. L0–17 AugLivingston (H)xG 0.51–0.90
  2. D1–130 JulKilmarnock (A)xG 0.38–1.24
  3. W2–114 MayRoss County (A)xG 2.93–0.52
  4. D1–111 MayCeltic (H)xG 0.87–1.30
  5. L0–28 MayRangers (A)xG 0.06–2.45
  6. W1–030 AprMotherwell (H)xG 0.38–0.77

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsDundee United
Position5th10th
Played22
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠1–⁠00–⁠1–⁠1
Points4 (2.00 per game)1 (0.50 per game)
Expected Points per game1.240.79
Goals3–⁠21–⁠2
xG per game1.37–⁠1.520.45–⁠1.07
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 1.78–⁠1.540.00, 0.51–⁠0.90
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.96–⁠1.501.00, 0.38–⁠1.24
ManagerRobbie Neilson (40)Jack Ross (2)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.18AttackHearts1.20, 3rdDundee United0.98, 9thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.19, 5thDundee United1.31, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugHearts attack: 1.20Dundee United attack: 0.981.200.98Dundee UnitedHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugHearts defence: 1.19Dundee United defence: 1.311.311.19

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsDundee United
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+21%+27%−32%+20%
Counter-attacks+32%+146%−23%−62%
Set pieces−16%−10%−24%+2%
Penaltiesaverage−75%−50%−37%
Headers−22%+6%−22%−1%
Left side+20%+31%−34%−4%
Centre+4%+7%−25%+15%
Right side+30%+29%−35%+21%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdDundee United concededLeft side+20%+21%Centre+4%+15%Right side+30%−4%Open play+21%+20%Counter-attacks+32%−62%Set pieces−16%+2%Headers−22%−1%

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdHearts concededLeft side−34%+29%Centre−25%+7%Right side−35%+31%Open play−32%+27%Counter-attacks−23%+146%Set pieces−24%−10%Headers−22%+6%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsDundee United

1.37xG0.45
1.52xG against1.07
52%Possession55%
13.5Shots8.5
12.0Shots against14.5
5.0Shots on target4.0
2.0Big chances0.0
402Passes430
69%Pass accuracy74%
6.5Corners6.5
46%Field tilt46%
34.5Final-third entries37.0
12.5Box entries8.0
15.0Passes per defensive action13.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.901.58
Ahead500.951.47
Behind0––

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level460.201.32
Ahead240.420.90
Behind201.030.68

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.020.200–0
16–300.100.471–0
31–450.500.200–0
46–600.590.001–0
61–750.040.020–0
76–900.130.631–2

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.020.200–0
16–300.040.220–0
31–450.040.111–0
46–600.150.190–1
61–750.150.180–0
76–900.050.170–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 2Smith 1Sibbick 1Halkett 2Rowles 2Cochrane 2Haring 2Smith 1Grant 1Forrest 1McKay 1Boyce 1Atkinson 1McKay 1Forrest 1Shankland 24-2-3-1 in 1 of 2 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

Dundee United

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBirighitti 2Smith 2Edwards 2Graham 1Mulgrew 1McMann 2Sibbald 2Levitt 1Harkes 1Middleton 1Cudjoe 1Levitt 1McGrath 1Watt 2Fletcher 24-2-3-1 in 1 of 2 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
24 April 2022Dundee United2–3HeartsxG 2.07–3.00
5 March 2022Dundee United2–2HeartsxG 1.28–0.77
6 November 2021Hearts5–2Dundee UnitedxG 2.14–0.85
28 August 2021Dundee United0–2HeartsxG 0.40–2.25

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 3, Dundee United won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 12–6 and xG 2.04–1.15 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyce302,5751030.490.11
McKay322,8123110.150.28
Smith211,690210.130.11
Devlin231,897120.090.07

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Clark262,443820.370.09
Watt171,452120.100.20
Niskanen252,297140.070.13
Levitt252,209610.070.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.