Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Hearts 0–1 Dundee United

Sunday 1 September 2024, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 4 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 18,648

Dundee United Graham 76'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsDundee United
Goals01
xG0.631.26
Expected Points0.831.86

Hearts 17%Draw 32%Dundee United 51%

Most likely score 0–1, 19%. Final score 0–1, 19%.

Dundee United goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+12%5%1%9%9%3%3%4%3%14%19%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTMcKay on for Spittal and Dhanda on for Vargas, 58'Devlin on for Penrice and Oyegoke on for Grant, 69'Forrest on for Oda, 80'Sevelj on for Holt, 40'Moult on for Trapanovski, Dalby on for van der Sande, and Docherty on for Babunski, 65'Graham 76'Dundee United 1.26Hearts 0.6300.511.50153045607590HTMcKay on for Spittal and Dhanda on for Vargas, 58'Devlin on for Penrice and Oyegoke on for Grant, 69'Forrest on for Oda, 80'Sevelj on for Holt, 40'Moult on for Trapanovski, Dalby on for van der Sande, and Docherty on for Babunski, 65'Graham 76'1.260.63HeartsDundee United

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsDundee United

0.63 −0.52xG1.26 −0.06
0.35 −0.26xG on target0.49 −1.27
14 0Shots12 +2
2 −1.0Shots on target4 −0.3
0 −1.3Big chances3 +1.3
33 +4Touches in the opposition box20 0
66% +11Possession34% −9
574 +152Passes301 +19
81% +5Pass accuracy68% +6
73% +19Field tilt27% −20
55 +17Final-third entries24 −3
16 +3.0Box entries9 +0.3
7.7 −4Passes per defensive action28.1 +13
6 −2.3Corners4 0.0
20 −5Tackles23 +4
9 −0.3Interceptions10 +2.7
17 −7Clearances43 +17
2 −1.3Saves2 −0.3
15 +1Fouls6 −6
2 +0.3Offsides1 0.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Shankland 59', 0.17 xGShankland 83', 0.09 xGPenrice 6', 0.06 xGPenrice 34', 0.04 xGShankland 34', 0.04 xGOda 53', 0.04 xGShankland 85', 0.04 xGOyegoke 90+2', 0.04 xGSpittal 15', 0.03 xGOda 17', 0.03 xGOda 5', 0.02 xGBoateng 45+3', 0.02 xGGrant 54', 0.01 xGMcKay 61', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals57%0.36 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.36 xG, 0 goals27%0.17 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals10%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals6%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Dundee United

Stephenson 24', 0.28 xGTrapanovski 46', 0.18 xGvan der Sande 14', 0.16 xGTrapanovski 46', 0.15 xGSibbald 88', 0.11 xGGraham 50', 0.09 xGAdegboyega 3', 0.07 xGGraham 68', 0.06 xGFerry 66', 0.05 xGTrapanovski 57', 0.04 xGFerry 45', 0.02 xGGraham 76', 0.07 xG, goal29%0.36 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.36 xG, 0 goals46%0.58 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.58 xG, 0 goals7%0.09 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals18%0.23 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.23 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsDundee United

0.42 12 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.61 6 shots, 1 goal
0.17 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.32 2 shots, 0 goals
0.04 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.33 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
79 min (82%) · Hearts 0.47, Dundee United 1.15 xG
Dundee United ahead
17 min (18%) · Hearts 0.16, Dundee United 0.11 xG

Line-ups

1342297181611977GordonKingsleyHalkettKentPenriceGrantBoatengSpittalOdaShanklandVargasYellow card69'69'58'80'58'Hearts 4-3-3Steven Naismith116316174141110720WaltonAdegboyegaGallagherGrahamStephensonHoltSibbaldFerryBabunskiTrapanovskivan der SandeYellow cardGoalYellow cardYellow cardYellow card40'65'65'65'Dundee United 3-4-2-1Jim Goodwin

Hearts substitutes

  • 58' Dhanda for Vargas · yellow card 90+3'
  • 58' McKay for Spittal
  • 69' Devlin for Penrice
  • 69' Oyegoke for Grant
  • 80' Forrest for Oda

Dundee United substitutes

  • 40' Sevelj for Holt
  • 65' Docherty for Babunski
  • 65' Moult for Trapanovski
  • 65' Dalby for van der Sande

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0100
KingsleyRB900.000.0300.0537
HalkettCB900.000.0510.22811
KentCB900.000.0300.16107
PenriceLB690.100.0210.0743
GrantCM690.010.0200.0124
BoatengCM900.020.0910.14410
SpittalCM580.030.1310.0961
OdaRW800.090.011−0.0102
Shankland ST900.330.042−0.0111
VargasLW580.000.0910.0810
Dhanda MF320.000.0500.0622
McKayFW320.010.0900.15111
DevlinMF210.000.070−0.0210
OyegokeMF210.040.0100.0112
ForrestMF100.000.0000.0000

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Walton GK900.000.0000.0110
AdegboyegaCB900.070.0000.0326
GallagherCB900.000.0000.0225
GrahamCB9010.210.0100.03310
StephensonRWB900.280.0500.0759
HoltCM400.000.000−0.0105
Sibbald CM900.110.0220.0646
Ferry LWB9010.070.1220.04316
BabunskiAM650.000.2420.0663
Trapanovski AM650.360.2610.3062
van der SandeST650.160.0320.0114
SeveljMF500.000.0100.03110
DochertyMF250.000.0000.0002
MoultFW250.000.0000.0211
DalbyFW250.000.0000.0013

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Penrice and Vargas: 5 passesKent and Boateng: 6 passesBoateng and Grant: 6 passesGordon and Penrice: 7 passesPenrice and Shankland: 7 passesKingsley and Grant: 8 passesKent and Grant: 8 passesHalkett and Grant: 8 passesBoateng and Shankland: 8 passesSpittal and Shankland: 8 passesKingsley and Kent: 10 passesHalkett and Spittal: 10 passesGordon and Kent: 11 passesHalkett and Boateng: 12 passesSpittal and Vargas: 12 passesBoateng and Spittal: 13 passesPenrice and Boateng: 15 passesKingsley and Boateng: 18 passesKent and Spittal: 18 passesPenrice and Spittal: 19 passesKingsley and Halkett: 24 passesKent and Penrice: 26 passesKent and Halkett: 32 passesGordon: 16 completed passesKingsley: 36 completed passesKent: 62 completed passesHalkett: 52 completed passesPenrice: 41 completed passesBoateng: 42 completed passesGrant: 22 completed passesSpittal: 41 completed passesOda: 5 completed passesShankland: 15 completed passesVargas: 11 completed passes1324291871611977GordonKingsleyKentHalkettPenriceBoatengGrantSpittalOdaShanklandVargasStarters until 58' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Dundee United

Walton and Adegboyega: 3 passesWalton and Graham: 3 passesAdegboyega and Gallagher: 3 passesAdegboyega and Stephenson: 3 passesAdegboyega and van der Sande: 3 passesGallagher and Stephenson: 3 passesGallagher and Babunski: 3 passesTrapanovski and van der Sande: 3 passesGallagher and Holt: 4 passesGraham and Holt: 4 passesStephenson and van der Sande: 4 passesFerry and Trapanovski: 4 passesHolt and Sibbald: 4 passesBabunski and Trapanovski: 4 passesGallagher and Graham: 5 passesFerry and Sibbald: 6 passesAdegboyega and Babunski: 7 passesGraham and Ferry: 7 passesBabunski and van der Sande: 7 passesAdegboyega and Holt: 8 passesStephenson and Babunski: 9 passesWalton: 8 completed passesAdegboyega: 14 completed passesGallagher: 16 completed passesGraham: 12 completed passesStephenson: 11 completed passesFerry: 12 completed passesHolt: 12 completed passesSibbald: 9 completed passesBabunski: 18 completed passesTrapanovski: 5 completed passesvan der Sande: 9 completed passes116316171141410720WaltonAdegboyegaGallagherGrahamStephensonFerryHoltSibbaldBabunskiTrapanovskivan der SandeStarters until 40' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
KentHalkett24
HalkettKent24
KentPenrice20
HalkettKingsley16
KingsleyHalkett12

Dundee United

FromToPasses
FerryGraham8
BabunskiStephenson7
SibbaldFerry6
van der SandeBabunski6
BabunskiAdegboyega5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

7+3.08+2.711−5.08+0.74−4.74−3.06−1.06−2.36−3.09+6.02−1.38+4.04−1.750.02−0.76+3.35+2.36+3.72−1.04+1.71+0.73+1.71+0.30−1.31+0.70−1.01+0.71−0.32−7.31−8.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 3 matches

Dundee United

3−0.710+2.724+9.316+9.07−1.09+3.311+5.311+5.310+5.77−2.31−6.34−0.71−2.311+6.34−2.33−1.73+0.71−1.76+4.03−1.00−3.300.01+0.310.01−1.02+0.71+1.00−1.01+1.02+1.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 3 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.020.040.010.020.020.070.040.030.010.020.040.080.030.050.050.01−0.040.020.120.120.110.10LessMore

Dundee United

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.020.010.020.010.040.040.010.010.010.120.010.060.040.02−0.01−0.020.010.21LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHearts1.38 → 1.34Dundee United1.05 → 1.07Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.28 → 1.29Dundee United1.63 → 1.55

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six64%51%−13
11th3%4%+1
Bottom1%2%+1
Dundee United
Top six19%31%+12
11th17%13%−4
Bottom22%12%−10
St. Johnstone
Top six10%10%0
11th20%22%+2
Bottom23%26%+3

From the forecast before the match (1 September 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsDundee United
Expected goals1.920.93
Win60%17%
Expected Points2.030.74
Clean sheet40%15%

Hearts 60%Draw 23%Dundee United 17%

Most likely score 1–1, 11%. Both sides score 52%.

Dundee United goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+6%5%2%5%1%5%1%7%6%3%3%3%1%1%1%11%11%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 1 September 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawDundee United win
Hearts
Top six64%70%58%51%
11th3%2%3%4%
Bottom1%1%2%2%
Dundee United
Top six19%14%22%31%
11th17%18%16%13%
Bottom22%26%17%12%
St. Johnstone
Top six10%10%10%10%
11th20%19%20%22%
Bottom23%22%22%26%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. L1–325 AugMotherwell (A)xG 0.62–2.54
  2. L1–310 AugDundee FC (A)xG 1.52–1.53
  3. D0–03 AugRangers (H)xG 1.32–0.75
  4. D3–318 MayRangers (H)xG 2.06–1.99
  5. D2–215 MaySt. Mirren (A)xG 0.83–1.72
  6. W3–011 MayDundee FC (H)xG 2.41–1.03

Dundee United

  1. W2–024 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.41–1.58
  2. D1–110 AugRoss County (A)xG 1.34–2.23
  3. D2–24 AugDundee FC (H)xG 2.21–2.42
  4. L2–328 MayMotherwell (A)xG 2.81–2.15
  5. L0–324 MayKilmarnock (H)xG 0.99–1.90
  6. L1–220 MayLivingston (A)xG 1.17–1.06

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsDundee United
Position10th6th
Played33
Won, drawn, lost0–⁠1–⁠21–⁠2–⁠0
Points1 (0.33 per game)5 (1.67 per game)
Expected Points per game1.120.77
Goals2–⁠65–⁠3
xG per game1.15–⁠1.611.32–⁠2.08
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.32–⁠0.752.00, 1.31–⁠2.00
Away: points, xG per game0.00, 1.07–⁠2.041.00, 1.34–⁠2.23
ManagerSteven Naismith (37)Jim Goodwin (15)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHearts1.38, 3rdDundee United1.05, 10thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.28, 3rdDundee United1.63, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02 Aug31 AugHearts attack: 1.38Dundee United attack: 1.051.381.05Dundee UnitedHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02 Aug31 AugHearts defence: 1.28Dundee United defence: 1.631.631.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsDundee United
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−23%−5%+2%+19%
Counter-attacks−30%−14%+23%+1%
Set pieces+50%+31%−12%−11%
Penalties−41%+99%−50%+243%
Headers+35%+98%−15%−4%
Left side−6%−31%+10%−25%
Centre−10%+22%+1%+32%
Right side−3%−3%−9%−4%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdDundee United concededLeft side−6%−4%Centre−10%+32%Right side−3%−25%Open play−23%+19%Counter-attacks−30%+1%Set pieces+50%−11%Headers+35%−4%

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdHearts concededLeft side+10%−3%Centre+1%+22%Right side−9%−31%Open play+2%−5%Counter-attacks+23%−14%Set pieces−12%+31%Headers−15%+98%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsDundee United

1.15xG1.32
1.61xG against2.08
55%Possession43%
14.0Shots10.0
11.3Shots against15.0
3.0Shots on target4.3
1.3Big chances1.7
29.0Touches in the opposition box20.3
422Passes282
76%Pass accuracy62%
8.3Corners4.0
55%Field tilt47%
37.6Final-third entries27.4
13.0Box entries8.7
11.3Passes per defensive action15.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.011.76
Ahead0––
Behind441.321.43

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.642.23
Ahead461.021.93
Behind0––

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.320–0
16–300.200.420–2
31–450.030.460–2
46–600.080.280–1
61–750.280.092–0
76–900.380.040–1

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.380.021–0
16–300.210.571–1
31–450.090.560–0
46–600.370.132–0
61–750.160.140–0
76–900.110.661–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTClark 2Gordon 1Dhanda 1Oyegoke 1Kent 3Kingsley 1Rowles 3Taylor 3Grant 2Devlin 1Boateng 1Spittal 1Penrice 1Salazar 1Devlin 1Penrice 1McKay 2Dhanda 1Shankland 1Forrest 1Vargas 1Shankland 2Vargas 13-4-2-1 in 2 of 3 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1)

Dundee United

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTWalton 3Graham 2Gallagher 3Adegboyega 2Holt 2Sevelj 2Stephenson 1Sibbald 3Babunski 2Ferry 1Ferry 2Babunski 1Thomson 2Holt 1Trapanovski 3van der Sande 33-4-2-1 in 2 of 3 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
4 February 2023Hearts3–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.01–1.22
24 December 2022Dundee United2–2HeartsxG 0.79–1.72
14 August 2022Hearts4–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.80–1.21
24 April 2022Dundee United2–3HeartsxG 2.07–3.00
5 March 2022Dundee United2–2HeartsxG 1.28–0.77
6 November 2021Hearts5–2Dundee UnitedxG 2.14–0.85

7 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 5, Dundee United won 0, and 2 were drawn. Goals 21–10 and xG 1.81–1.12 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland393,5302450.450.18
Boyce7682130.340.19
Grant171,504440.350.15
McKay6545020.050.40

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.