Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Hearts 3–1 Dundee United

Saturday 4 February 2023, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 25 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 18,279

Hearts Shankland 71', Cochrane 77', Humphrys 90+8' · Ginnelly sent off 90+6'

Dundee United Fletcher 9' · Edwards sent off 29'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsDundee United
Goals31
xG1.011.22
Expected Points1.151.53

Hearts 28%Draw 32%Dundee United 40%

Most likely score 1–1, 18%. Final score 3–1, 2%.

Dundee United goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+9%9%2%8%10%3%4%8%5%1%1%2%1%14%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTEdwards (Dundee United), red card 29'Ginnelly (Hearts), second yellow card 90+6'Humphrys on for Forrest, 46'Grant on for Halliday, 61'Kuol on for Hill and Cochrane on for Rowles, 69'Neilson on for Kingsley, 88'Djoum on for Pawlett, 52'Freeman on for Sibbald, 74'MacLeod on for Niskanen, 85'Shankland 71'Cochrane 77'Humphrys 90+8'Fletcher 9'Dundee United 1.22Hearts 1.0100.511.50153045607590HTEdwards (Dundee United), red card 29'Ginnelly (Hearts), second yellow card 90+6'Humphrys on for Forrest, 46'Grant on for Halliday, 61'Kuol on for Hill and Cochrane on for Rowles, 69'Neilson on for Kingsley, 88'Djoum on for Pawlett, 52'Freeman on for Sibbald, 74'MacLeod on for Niskanen, 85'Shankland 71'Cochrane 77'Humphrys 90+8'Fletcher 9'1.221.01HeartsDundee United

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsDundee United

1.01 −0.64xG1.22 +0.39
1.62 +0.24xG on target0.58 −0.30
18 +6.2Shots10 +0.3
7 +2.8Shots on target2 −1.6
0 −2.4Big chances3 +2.2
42 +21Touches in the opposition box16 0
65% +11Possession35% −10
489 +54Passes271 −90
82% +6Pass accuracy70% 0
63% +15Field tilt37% −7
51 +18Final-third entries32 −3
25 +14.2Box entries9 +0.3
8.3 −6Passes per defensive action15.2 −2
10 +5.3Corners3 −1.7
10 −6Tackles17 +2
9 +0.7Interceptions13 +4.2
12 −7Clearances37 +13
1 −2.7Saves4 +0.8
13 +2.7Fouls11 +1.1
1 −0.3Offsides1 −0.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Shankland 84', 0.20 xGRowles 45+3', 0.08 xGHumphrys 49', 0.08 xGHumphrys 89', 0.07 xGHill 45+1', 0.06 xGSnodgrass 50', 0.05 xGRowles 38', 0.04 xGHalliday 60', 0.04 xGGinnelly 64', 0.04 xGHumphrys 84', 0.04 xGShankland 23', 0.03 xGHumphrys 47', 0.03 xGShankland 65', 0.03 xGGinnelly 10', 0.02 xGShankland 82', 0.02 xGShankland 71', 0.07 xG, goalCochrane 77', 0.06 xG, goalHumphrys 90+8', 0.05 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals54%0.55 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.55 xG, 1 goal23%0.23 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.23 xG, 1 goal18%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals5%0.05 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 1 goal

Dundee United

Pawlett 45', 0.22 xGFletcher 42', 0.12 xGMiddleton 16', 0.09 xGMiddleton 45', 0.09 xGFletcher 11', 0.06 xGNiskanen 8', 0.04 xGMiddleton 16', 0.03 xGFletcher 45+4', 0.03 xGDjoum 78', 0.03 xGFletcher 9', 0.52 xG, goal42%0.52 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.52 xG, 1 goal26%0.32 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.32 xG, 0 goals7%0.09 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.09 xG, 0 goals24%0.30 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.30 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsDundee United

0.75 13 shots, 3 goalsOpen play1.19 9 shots, 1 goal
0.07 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.19 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.03 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
15 min (15%) · Hearts 0.06, Dundee United 0.56 xG
Hearts ahead
22 min (21%) · Hearts 0.38, Dundee United 0.03 xG
Dundee United ahead
66 min (64%) · Hearts 0.58, Dundee United 0.63 xG

Line-ups

28722115171677391830ClarkHillSibbickRowlesForrestHallidaySnodgrassKingsleyShanklandMcKayGinnellyYellow cardGoalYellow cardSent off, second yellow69'69'46'61'88'Hearts 3-4-2-1Robbie Neilson112432141978159BirighittiEdwardsMulgrewMcMannSmithSibbaldLevittNiskanenPawlettMiddletonFletcherSent offYellow cardYellow cardGoal74'85'52'Dundee United 3-4-2-1Liam Fox

Hearts substitutes

  • 46' Humphrys for Forrest · yellow card 48', goal 90+8'
  • 61' Grant for Halliday
  • 69' Cochrane for Rowles · goal 77'
  • 69' Kuol for Hill · yellow card 90+6'
  • 88' Neilson for Kingsley

Dundee United substitutes

  • 52' Djoum for Pawlett
  • 74' Freeman for Sibbald
  • 85' MacLeod for Niskanen

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0231
HillCB690.060.2800.0754
SibbickCB900.000.1810.1232
RowlesCB690.120.0200.1284
ForrestRWB460.000.0110.0044
HallidayCM610.040.0100.0001
SnodgrassCM900.050.0510.0875
Kingsley LWB880.000.5210.3572
ShanklandAM9010.350.0000.0214
McKayAM9010.000.2240.35241
Ginnelly ST900.060.010−0.0203
Humphrys FW4410.270.0100.0520
GrantMF290.000.0100.0221
CochraneDF2110.060.0400.0311
Kuol FW210.000.0010.0121
NeilsonDF20.000.0000.0001

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BirighittiGK900.000.0110.0541
Edwards CB290.000.010−0.0212
MulgrewCB900.000.0100.05513
McMannCB900.000.0100.04512
SmithRWB900.000.0200.0958
Sibbald CM740.000.0100.0328
LevittCM900.000.0900.1142
NiskanenLWB8510.040.4420.23412
Pawlett AM520.220.0210.0222
MiddletonAM900.200.0510.0314
FletcherST9010.730.0630.0514
DjoumMF380.030.0000.0105
FreemanMF160.000.0100.0010
MacLeodFW50.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Rowles and Ginnelly: 3 passesHill and Shankland: 3 passesHill and Ginnelly: 3 passesKingsley and Halliday: 3 passesRowles and Hill: 4 passesSibbick and Forrest: 4 passesKingsley and Snodgrass: 4 passesSnodgrass and McKay: 4 passesRowles and Halliday: 5 passesSibbick and McKay: 5 passesHalliday and Snodgrass: 5 passesClark and Rowles: 6 passesHill and McKay: 6 passesHalliday and McKay: 6 passesRowles and McKay: 7 passesKingsley and McKay: 7 passesSibbick and Snodgrass: 11 passesHill and Snodgrass: 11 passesHill and Forrest: 14 passesRowles and Kingsley: 15 passesRowles and Snodgrass: 16 passesSibbick and Hill: 23 passesRowles and Sibbick: 26 passesClark: 5 completed passesRowles: 45 completed passesSibbick: 38 completed passesHill: 32 completed passesForrest: 11 completed passesKingsley: 18 completed passesHalliday: 11 completed passesSnodgrass: 28 completed passesMcKay: 18 completed passesShankland: 2 completed passesGinnelly: 4 completed passes28152172173167718930ClarkRowlesSibbickHillForrestKingsleyHallidaySnodgrassMcKayShanklandGinnellyStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Dundee United

Edwards and Mulgrew: 3 passesSmith and Middleton: 3 passesSibbald and Levitt: 3 passesSibbald and Middleton: 3 passesLevitt and Pawlett: 3 passesSmith and Pawlett: 4 passesPawlett and Fletcher: 5 passesMcMann and Levitt: 6 passesBirighitti: 2 completed passesEdwards: 5 completed passesMulgrew: 7 completed passesMcMann: 7 completed passesSmith: 6 completed passesNiskanen: 3 completed passesSibbald: 6 completed passesLevitt: 11 completed passesMiddleton: 4 completed passesPawlett: 7 completed passesFletcher: 5 completed passes112432714191589BirighittiEdwardsMulgrewMcMannSmithNiskanenSibbaldLevittMiddletonPawlettFletcherStarters until 29' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
SibbickRowles20
SibbickHill18
RowlesSibbick18
HillSibbick15
KingsleyMcKay15

Dundee United

FromToPasses
McMannLevitt11
LevittMcMann8
BirighittiFletcher7
LevittSmith7
McMannMulgrew5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

6+1.37+0.610−3.21−3.35−1.86+0.18−0.75−2.43−2.66+1.24+0.83−1.85−0.33−0.94+0.85+2.59+6.33−1.01−2.13+1.13+2.31−0.11−1.02+1.52+1.71+0.50−0.30−0.62−5.22−5.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 24 matches

Dundee United

4−0.311+5.129+13.313+6.43−3.05−0.59+3.82−5.76−0.75−1.35+0.36+1.35+1.36+0.75−1.22−2.97+3.70−2.42−1.51−2.20−1.80−1.310.04+2.40−1.41+0.30−0.20−0.50−0.40−1.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 23 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.010.020.010.010.050.010.010.030.030.020.040.090.030.080.140.010.060.010.07−0.01−0.040.190.040.30LessMore

Dundee United

0.040.020.010.010.020.020.020.030.020.050.040.060.020.050.05−0.010.04−0.020.040.010.20LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackHearts1.38 → 1.38Dundee United0.93 → 0.94Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.20 → 1.21Dundee United1.47 → 1.46

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee United
Top six1%1%0
11th24%26%+2
Bottom23%27%+4
Ross County
11th26%27%+1
Bottom43%42%−1
Kilmarnock
Top six1%1%0
11th22%21%−1
Bottom14%13%−1

From the forecast before the match (4 February 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsDundee United
Expected goals1.990.82
Win64%14%
Expected Points2.150.64
Clean sheet44%14%

Hearts 64%Draw 22%Dundee United 14%

Most likely score 2–0, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

Dundee United goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%4%2%4%1%4%1%8%6%3%4%3%1%2%1%12%10%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 4 February 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawDundee United win
Dundee United
Top six1%1%1%3%
11th24%26%25%16%
Bottom23%27%20%11%
Ross County
11th26%27%26%25%
Bottom43%42%44%48%
Kilmarnock
Top six1%1%1%1%
11th22%21%21%26%
Bottom14%13%15%18%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. L0–31 FebRangers (H)xG 0.86–3.07
  2. D0–029 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.63–0.34
  3. W5–018 JanAberdeen (H)xG 3.54–1.02
  4. W1–013 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.68–1.41
  5. D1–17 JanSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.99–0.66
  6. W3–02 JanHibernian (H)xG 1.76–1.19

Dundee United

  1. L0–11 FebKilmarnock (A)xG 1.37–2.71
  2. L0–229 JanCeltic (H)xG 0.33–2.91
  3. D2–214 JanHibernian (A)xG 0.87–0.80
  4. L0–28 JanRangers (H)xG 0.46–1.60
  5. W1–02 JanSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.54–0.63
  6. W3–028 DecRoss County (H)xG 0.85–0.98

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsDundee United
Position3rd12th
Played2423
Won, drawn, lost11–⁠6–⁠75–⁠5–⁠13
Points39 (1.62 per game)20 (0.87 per game)
Expected Points per game1.410.91
Goals42–⁠3425–⁠40
xG per game1.65–⁠1.630.83–⁠1.65
Home: points, xG per game2.08, 2.12–⁠1.671.08, 0.84–⁠1.68
Away: points, xG per game1.17, 1.18–⁠1.590.64, 0.82–⁠1.62
ManagerRobbie Neilson (62)Liam Fox (18)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackHearts1.38, 3rdDundee United0.93, 11thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.20, 4thDundee United1.47, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebHearts attack: 1.38Dundee United attack: 0.931.380.93Dundee UnitedHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebHearts defence: 1.20Dundee United defence: 1.471.471.20

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsDundee United
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+20%+33%−38%+37%
Counter-attacks+48%−51%−25%+141%
Set pieces+4%+25%−47%−4%
Penalties+87%+4%−13%−13%
Headers−14%+42%−45%+19%
Left side−4%+23%−28%+61%
Centre+25%+38%−42%+20%
Right side+25%+15%−46%+18%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdDundee United concededLeft side−4%+18%Centre+25%+20%Right side+25%+61%Open play+20%+37%Counter-attacks+48%+141%Set pieces+4%−4%Headers−14%+19%

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdHearts concededLeft side−28%+15%Centre−42%+38%Right side−46%+23%Open play−38%+33%Counter-attacks−25%−51%Set pieces−47%+25%Headers−45%+42%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsDundee United

1.65xG0.83
1.63xG against1.65
54%Possession45%
11.8Shots9.7
14.3Shots against15.4
4.2Shots on target3.6
2.4Big chances0.8
20.8Touches in the opposition box16.5
435Passes361
76%Pass accuracy70%
4.7Corners4.7
48%Field tilt44%
33.4Final-third entries34.8
10.8Box entries8.7
14.8Passes per defensive action17.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level332.091.33
Ahead321.491.94
Behind251.301.63

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level350.711.57
Ahead210.811.28
Behind330.971.97

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.280.175–7
16–300.210.158–3
31–450.340.298–1
46–600.210.316–8
61–750.200.305–6
76–900.410.4010–9

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.235–5
16–300.130.174–2
31–450.140.353–11
46–600.110.353–11
61–750.170.205–1
76–900.140.365–10

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 16Clark 7Stewart 1Smith 13Sibbick 5Atkinson 3Kingsley 10Sibbick 9Neilson 4Rowles 14Cochrane 8Cochrane 10Halliday 8Snodgrass 3Devlin 14Kiomourtzoglou 5Halliday 5Snodgrass 12Grant 2Smith 1Ginnelly 9Forrest 4Hill 3Shankland 4Smith 3Boyce 3McKay 15Mackay-Steven 3Forrest 2Shankland 15Ginnelly 4Humphrys 34-2-3-1 in 7 of 24 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-4-3 (6), 3-4-2-1 (4), 4-1-4-1 (4), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Dundee United

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTBirighitti 14Eriksson 9Smith 15Middleton 2Cudjoe 2Edwards 23Mulgrew 6McMann 11Graham 10Freeman 14Smith 8Niskanen 1Levitt 19Djoum 6Mulgrew 1Sibbald 12McGrath 3Harkes 3Behich 17McMann 4Middleton 1McGrath 11Harkes 11Sibbald 1Middleton 14Watt 5Fletcher 3Fletcher 13Watt 7McGrath 13-4-2-1 in 10 of 23 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (10), 5-3-2 (4), 4-3-3 (3), 3-4-1-2 (2), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
24 December 2022Dundee United2–2HeartsxG 0.79–1.72
14 August 2022Hearts4–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.80–1.21
24 April 2022Dundee United2–3HeartsxG 2.07–3.00
5 March 2022Dundee United2–2HeartsxG 1.28–0.77
6 November 2021Hearts5–2Dundee UnitedxG 2.14–0.85
28 August 2021Dundee United0–2HeartsxG 0.40–2.25

6 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 4, Dundee United won 0, and 2 were drawn. Goals 18–9 and xG 1.95–1.10 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland201,8821640.840.09
Grant5579110.360.18
Humphrys6557200.470.04
Ginnelly151,259520.200.20

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Fletcher161,316420.420.07
Watt121,018410.240.08
Middleton181,523220.120.15
McGrath151,276220.090.15

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.