Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Dundee United 1–0 Aberdeen

Sunday 29 December 2024, 17:15 · CalForth Construction Arena at Tannadice Park · Round 20 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 13,581

Dundee United Holt 90+4'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee UnitedAberdeen
Goals10
xG2.290.91
Expected Points2.310.50

Dundee United 71%Draw 19%Aberdeen 10%

Most likely score 2–1, 12%. Final score 1–0, 8%.

Aberdeen goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+2%2%1%8%4%6%1%4%1%4%5%2%1%2%10%11%12%9%9%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTDocherty on for Babunski, 46'Fotheringham on for Trapanovski, 72'van der Sande on for Strain, 83'Nisbet on for Sokler, 60'Duk on for Keskinen, 61'MacDonald on for Molloy, 78'Morris on for McGrath and Polvara on for Clarkson, 90+1'Holt 90+4'Dundee United 2.29Aberdeen 0.9101230153045607590HTDocherty on for Babunski, 46'Fotheringham on for Trapanovski, 72'van der Sande on for Strain, 83'Nisbet on for Sokler, 60'Duk on for Keskinen, 61'MacDonald on for Molloy, 78'Morris on for McGrath and Polvara on for Clarkson, 90+1'Holt 90+4'2.290.91Dundee UnitedAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee UnitedAberdeen

2.29 +0.85xG0.91 −0.38
2.45 +0.98xG on target1.02 −0.37
19 +8Shots9 −3
6 +2.0Shots on target2 −2.0
4 +1.9Big chances0 −2.0
23 −1Touches in the opposition box26 +1
40% −4Possession60% +8
320 −8Passes483 +63
74% +5Pass accuracy81% +4
46% +3Field tilt55% +4
21 −10Final-third entries49 +13
10 0Box entries14 +1
16.0 +1Passes per defensive action10.4 −2
9 +4.5Corners1 −4.3
17 −1Tackles13 −5
8 −0.3Interceptions3 −4.9
43 +9Clearances47 +16
3 +0.2Saves5 +2.3
12 0Fouls14 +3
0 −0.8Offsides0 −1.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee United

Stephenson 90+4', 0.60 xGFerry 26', 0.29 xGDalby 70', 0.27 xGHolt 70', 0.16 xGTrapanovski 37', 0.14 xGMiddleton 37', 0.13 xGTrapanovski 70', 0.10 xGMiddleton 45', 0.09 xGSevelj 76', 0.08 xGMiddleton 3', 0.06 xGHolt 55', 0.04 xGTrapanovski 26', 0.03 xGDocherty 58', 0.03 xGTrapanovski 15', 0.02 xGMiddleton 45', 0.02 xGDocherty 71', 0.02 xGMiddleton 4', 0.01 xGTrapanovski 69', 0.01 xGHolt 90+4', 0.18 xG, goal42%0.97 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.97 xG, 0 goals41%0.94 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.94 xG, 1 goal11%0.25 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.25 xG, 0 goals4%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

McGrath 79', 0.23 xGNilsen 20', 0.22 xGSokler 45+3', 0.12 xGSokler 13', 0.08 xGDevlin 68', 0.08 xGNisbet 68', 0.07 xGSokler 47', 0.04 xGRubezic 90+6', 0.04 xGDevlin 13', 0.03 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals97%0.88 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.88 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee UnitedAberdeen

1.41 10 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.46 7 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.23 1 shot, 0 goals
0.89 9 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.22 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
97 min (98%) · Dundee United 1.69, Aberdeen 0.87 xG
Dundee United ahead
2 min (2%) · Dundee United 0.60, Aberdeen 0.04 xG

Line-ups

12164117171051519WaltonStrainAdegboyegaHoltFerryTrapanovskiStephensonBabunskiSeveljMiddletonDalbyYellow cardGoalYellow cardYellow card83'72'46'Dundee United 4-5-1Jim Goodwin12332131867108119MitovDevlinRubezicMolloyMacKenziePalaversaNilsenMcGrathClarksonKeskinenSoklerYellow cardYellow card78'90+1'90+1'61'60'Aberdeen 4-2-3-1Jimmy Thelin

Dundee United substitutes

  • 46' Docherty for Babunski · yellow card 63'
  • 72' Fotheringham for Trapanovski
  • 83' van der Sande for Strain

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 60' Nisbet for Sokler
  • 61' Duk for Keskinen
  • 78' MacDonald for Molloy
  • 90+1' Polvara for Clarkson · yellow card 90+3'
  • 90+1' Morris for McGrath

Players

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WaltonGK900.000.0000.0341
Strain RB830.000.0210.0218
AdegboyegaCB900.000.0000.03112
Holt CB9010.380.0100.05314
FerryLB9010.290.4640.22511
TrapanovskiRM720.310.0400.1572
StephensonCM900.600.022−0.0408
BabunskiCM460.000.0100.0111
Sevelj CM900.080.0110.0219
MiddletonLM900.310.4720.2950
DalbyST900.270.010−0.0301
Docherty MF440.050.0000.0101
FotheringhamMF180.000.0000.0014
van der SandeFW70.000.0000.0000

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MitovGK900.000.0000.0200
DevlinRB900.110.1300.1687
Rubezic CB900.040.0000.04210
MolloyCB780.000.0300.13815
MacKenzieLB900.000.0510.0857
PalaversaDM900.000.1400.1695
NilsenDM900.220.0600.0934
McGrathRW900.230.1620.2477
ClarksonAM900.000.2620.0763
KeskinenLW610.000.0100.0013
Sokler ST600.240.0100.0010
NisbetFW300.070.1110.0112
DukFW290.000.0810.1144
MacDonaldDF120.000.0000.0113
Polvara MF00.000.0000.0001
MorrisFW00.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee United

Walton and Ferry: 3 passesWalton and Dalby: 3 passesStrain and Stephenson: 3 passesFerry and Trapanovski: 3 passesSevelj and Babunski: 3 passesMiddleton and Dalby: 3 passesHolt and Sevelj: 4 passesFerry and Babunski: 4 passesSevelj and Trapanovski: 4 passesStephenson and Middleton: 4 passesFerry and Sevelj: 5 passesWalton and Holt: 6 passesTrapanovski and Dalby: 6 passesHolt and Babunski: 8 passesStrain and Middleton: 10 passesWalton and Adegboyega: 11 passesHolt and Ferry: 11 passesAdegboyega and Holt: 12 passesAdegboyega and Stephenson: 13 passesStrain and Adegboyega: 15 passesWalton: 14 completed passesStrain: 18 completed passesAdegboyega: 28 completed passesHolt: 23 completed passesFerry: 18 completed passesSevelj: 13 completed passesStephenson: 12 completed passesMiddleton: 6 completed passesBabunski: 11 completed passesTrapanovski: 4 completed passesDalby: 8 completed passes12164115171510719WaltonStrainAdegboyegaHoltFerrySeveljStephensonMiddletonBabunskiTrapanovskiDalbyStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Aberdeen

Molloy and McGrath: 5 passesMacKenzie and McGrath: 5 passesPalaversa and Keskinen: 5 passesClarkson and Sokler: 5 passesMcGrath and Sokler: 5 passesMacKenzie and Nilsen: 6 passesPalaversa and Sokler: 6 passesNilsen and Clarkson: 6 passesDevlin and Palaversa: 7 passesDevlin and Keskinen: 7 passesRubezic and Nilsen: 7 passesMacKenzie and Clarkson: 8 passesPalaversa and McGrath: 8 passesNilsen and McGrath: 8 passesClarkson and McGrath: 9 passesMacKenzie and Palaversa: 10 passesPalaversa and Clarkson: 10 passesRubezic and Palaversa: 11 passesMolloy and MacKenzie: 12 passesDevlin and Rubezic: 14 passesMitov and Rubezic: 17 passesMolloy and Palaversa: 17 passesMolloy and Nilsen: 18 passesMolloy and Rubezic: 20 passesMitov and Molloy: 25 passesPalaversa and Nilsen: 33 passesMitov: 30 completed passesDevlin: 21 completed passesMolloy: 52 completed passesRubezic: 40 completed passesMacKenzie: 23 completed passesPalaversa: 53 completed passesNilsen: 47 completed passesKeskinen: 8 completed passesClarkson: 22 completed passesMcGrath: 20 completed passesSokler: 7 completed passes12213331868110719MitovDevlinMolloyRubezicMacKenziePalaversaNilsenKeskinenClarksonMcGrathSoklerStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee United

FromToPasses
StrainMiddleton12
WaltonAdegboyega11
AdegboyegaStephenson10
AdegboyegaStrain10
FerryHolt10

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
MitovMolloy21
NilsenPalaversa21
PalaversaNilsen16
MolloyMitov15
RubezicMitov14

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee United

6+1.612+4.119+1.610+0.79+3.38+0.96−0.58−0.14−3.73−2.42−2.02−2.14−1.67+1.45+1.84+1.12−0.33+0.65+1.52−0.30−1.31−0.11−0.14+2.43+1.70−0.21+0.30−0.40−0.70−6.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Aberdeen

6+1.24−2.726+7.612+3.46+0.12−4.73−2.24−0.79+1.68+1.15−0.82−1.53−0.64−2.22−3.96+1.71−1.71−1.93−0.44−0.34+1.92+0.74+2.60−1.911+8.51+0.30−0.31+0.60−0.51+0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee United

0.010.020.010.010.010.010.010.010.020.010.010.010.010.020.020.010.010.050.040.03−0.030.070.230.17LessMore

Aberdeen

0.010.010.010.020.010.020.010.030.070.030.090.030.050.030.010.090.11−0.010.030.07−0.050.040.070.150.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackDundee United1.23 → 1.26Aberdeen1.24 → 1.21Defence (lower is better)Dundee United1.36 → 1.32Aberdeen1.43 → 1.45

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee United
Top six86%92%+6
Aberdeen
Top six98%97%−1
Dundee FC
Top six5%4%−1
11th24%25%+1
Bottom19%19%0

From the forecast before the match (29 December 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee UnitedAberdeen
Expected goals1.551.12
Win47%27%
Expected Points1.661.07
Clean sheet33%21%

Dundee United 47%Draw 26%Aberdeen 27%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Aberdeen goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+8%7%4%2%7%3%8%5%2%4%5%3%1%2%2%1%10%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 29 December 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee United winDrawAberdeen win
Dundee United
Top six86%92%84%78%
Aberdeen
Top six98%97%98%>99%
Dundee FC
Top six5%4%5%5%
11th24%25%22%24%
Bottom19%19%20%18%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee United

  1. W2–126 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.27–0.58
  2. D0–022 DecCeltic (H)xG 0.10–1.00
  3. L3–414 DecMotherwell (A)xG 2.02–2.09
  4. D1–17 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 2.38–1.62
  5. W2–030 NovSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.22–0.35
  6. D1–123 NovRangers (A)xG 0.78–2.60

Aberdeen

  1. L0–426 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 0.50–4.02
  2. L1–321 DecHibernian (H)xG 1.90–1.44
  3. D1–17 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.70–1.35
  4. L0–14 DecCeltic (H)xG 0.88–1.62
  5. D1–11 DecHearts (A)xG 0.62–1.15
  6. D3–326 NovHibernian (A)xG 1.61–2.21

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee UnitedAberdeen
Position4th3rd
Played1818
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠7–⁠410–⁠4–⁠4
Points28 (1.56 per game)34 (1.89 per game)
Expected Points per game1.381.18
Goals27–⁠2031–⁠25
xG per game1.44–⁠1.371.29–⁠1.64
Home: points, xG per game1.67, 1.53–⁠1.182.20, 1.53–⁠1.40
Away: points, xG per game1.44, 1.34–⁠1.561.50, 1.00–⁠1.94
ManagerJim Goodwin (30)Jimmy Thelin (18)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackDundee United1.23, 6thAberdeen1.24, 5thDefence (lower is better)Dundee United1.36, 4thAberdeen1.43, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecDundee United attack: 1.23Aberdeen attack: 1.241.241.23AberdeenDundee UnitedDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecDundee United defence: 1.36Aberdeen defence: 1.431.431.36

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee UnitedAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−6%+4%+11%+13%
Counter-attacks+30%−43%−35%−66%
Set pieces−18%−14%−27%+45%
Penalties+73%+4%−65%+4%
Headers+30%−1%−1%+20%
Left side−19%+3%+4%+9%
Centre+8%−8%−4%+25%
Right side−25%−7%−11%+2%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdAberdeen concededLeft side−19%+2%Centre+8%+25%Right side−25%+9%Open play−6%+13%Counter-attacks+30%−66%Set pieces−18%+45%Headers+30%+20%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdDundee United concededLeft side+4%−7%Centre−4%−8%Right side−11%+3%Open play+11%+4%Counter-attacks−35%−43%Set pieces−27%−14%Headers−1%−1%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee UnitedAberdeen

1.44xG1.29
1.37xG against1.64
44%Possession52%
11.4Shots12.1
13.7Shots against14.1
4.0Shots on target4.0
2.1Big chances2.0
23.7Touches in the opposition box24.6
328Passes420
69%Pass accuracy77%
4.5Corners5.3
42%Field tilt51%
30.7Final-third entries35.7
10.2Box entries13.3
15.2Passes per defensive action12.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level551.271.30
Ahead181.551.80
Behind171.831.10

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level491.131.57
Ahead271.271.74
Behind141.851.71

xG by period

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.142–2
16–300.220.203–3
31–450.170.272–4
46–600.240.176–2
61–750.160.272–5
76–900.440.3112–4

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.183–0
16–300.140.213–6
31–450.200.334–5
46–600.250.188–2
61–750.220.325–4
76–900.300.438–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee United

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTWalton 18Adegboyega 15Dalby 1Fotheringham 1Gallagher 18Holt 13Graham 6Strain 8Stephenson 8Sevelj 2Babunski 10Sibbald 7Holt 2Sevelj 7Ferry 6Docherty 2Ferry 9Stephenson 4Fotheringham 2Trapanovski 7Sevelj 5Thomson 3Middleton 7Moult 3Ferry 2Dalby 11van der Sande 6Babunski 13-4-2-1 in 7 of 18 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (7), 3-4-3 (6), 3-5-2 (3), 4-4-1-1 (1), 4-4-2 (1)

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMitov 15Doohan 3Devlin 17Milne 1Rubezic 17MacDonald 2Molloy 17MacKenzie 15McGarry 3Shinnie 15Palaversa 4Keskinen 1Nilsen 16Keskinen 11Morris 5McGrath 1Clarkson 8Gueye 4McGrath 3McGrath 13Duk 4Keskinen 1Sokler 9Nisbet 7Ambrose 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
26 October 2024Aberdeen1–0Dundee UnitedxG 1.41–0.38
4 March 2023Dundee United1–3AberdeenxG 2.02–0.78
12 November 2022Aberdeen1–0Dundee UnitedxG 1.18–0.32
8 October 2022Dundee United4–0AberdeenxG 2.25–0.89
26 February 2022Aberdeen1–1Dundee UnitedxG 0.91–0.94
20 November 2021Dundee United1–0AberdeenxG 0.58–0.69

10 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee United won 3, Aberdeen won 4, and 3 were drawn. Goals 8–8 and xG 0.83–0.91 per game.

Key players

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Dalby131,139900.530.05
Trapanovski7575110.340.19
Babunski151,157110.150.15
Graham6507200.220.05

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McGrath171,383460.260.22
Duk6640020.240.21
Clarkson8688210.210.22
Morris5642150.150.25

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.