Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

St. Mirren 0–2 Kilmarnock

Saturday 22 April 2023, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 33 · Half-time 0–2 · Referee William Collum · Attendance 7,937

St. Mirren Small sent off 68'

Kilmarnock Donnelly 18', Doidge 35'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Goals02
xG0.512.32
Expected Points0.242.63

St. Mirren 4%Draw 13%Kilmarnock 83%

Most likely score 0–2, 20%. Final score 0–2, 20%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+2%12%7%2%1%7%11%9%4%1%2%3%2%20%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTSmall (St. Mirren), second yellow card 68'Kiltie on for Baccus and Small on for Tanser, 46'Greive on for Dunne, 63'Offord on for Watt, 81'Gallagher on for Gogic, 82'Lyons on for Doidge, 70'Robinson on for Vassell, 72'Jones on for McKenzie, 76'Donnelly 18'Doidge 35'Kilmarnock 2.32St. Mirren 0.5101230153045607590HTSmall (St. Mirren), second yellow card 68'Kiltie on for Baccus and Small on for Tanser, 46'Greive on for Dunne, 63'Offord on for Watt, 81'Gallagher on for Gogic, 82'Lyons on for Doidge, 70'Robinson on for Vassell, 72'Jones on for McKenzie, 76'Donnelly 18'Doidge 35'2.320.51St. MirrenKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenKilmarnock

0.51 −0.65xG2.32 +1.28
0.16 −0.88xG on target2.31 +1.56
6 −6Shots16 +4
1 −2.3Shots on target6 +2.9
1 −0.6Big chances3 +1.6
23 +3Touches in the opposition box22 +2
55% +17Possession45% +1
336 +60Passes289 −32
59% −3Pass accuracy53% −12
56% +17Field tilt44% +1
41 +10Final-third entries27 −6
9 −0.2Box entries13 +3.9
15.4 −1Passes per defensive action12.1 −3
5 −0.4Corners1 −3.5
14 −1Tackles18 +1
3 −5.9Interceptions9 −2.7
15 −8Clearances33 +14
4 +1.7Saves1 −2.2
12 −1Fouls11 −1
1 −0.3Offsides2 +0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Watt 42', 0.15 xGMain 22', 0.10 xGO'Hara 86', 0.10 xGBaccus 42', 0.08 xGGogic 11', 0.06 xGStrain 57', 0.03 xG41%0.21 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.21 xG, 0 goals37%0.19 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals16%0.08 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals6%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Armstrong 78', 0.75 xGMcKenzie 46', 0.50 xGWatson 1', 0.15 xGRobinson 78', 0.15 xGVassell 33', 0.11 xGDonnelly 46', 0.11 xGVassell 24', 0.04 xGDonnelly 4', 0.03 xGPower 54', 0.03 xGJones 83', 0.03 xGArmstrong 84', 0.03 xGVassell 14', 0.02 xGTaylor 26', 0.02 xGMcKenzie 69', 0.02 xGDonnelly 18', 0.20 xG, goalDoidge 35', 0.11 xG, goal32%0.75 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.75 xG, 0 goals51%1.18 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 1.18 xG, 2 goals10%0.24 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.24 xG, 0 goals5%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenKilmarnock

0.35 4 shots, 0 goalsOpen play2.13 12 shots, 2 goals
0.16 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.18 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
18 min (20%) · St. Mirren 0.06, Kilmarnock 0.41 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
73 min (80%) · St. Mirren 0.45, Kilmarnock 1.91 xG

Line-ups

12322418317136910CarsonStrainFraserShaughnessyDunneTanserBaccusGogicO'HaraWattMain63'46'46'82'81'St. Mirren 5-3-2Stephen Robinson202524114223472326WalkerMayoTaylorChambersArmstrongPowerDonnellyWatsonMcKenzieVassellDoidgeGoalGoal76'72'70'Kilmarnock 3-5-2Derek McInnes

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 46' Kiltie for Baccus · yellow card 90'
  • 46' Small for Tanser · yellow card 67', second yellow 68'
  • 63' Greive for Dunne
  • 81' Offord for Watt
  • 82' Gallagher for Gogic

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 70' Lyons for Doidge
  • 72' Robinson for Vassell
  • 76' Jones for McKenzie · yellow card 90+1'

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0000.0760
StrainRWB900.030.1010.2093
FraserCB900.000.1100.1557
ShaughnessyCB900.000.0200.0663
DunneCB630.000.0010.0331
TanserLWB460.000.1410.0221
BaccusCM460.080.010−0.0201
GogicCM820.060.091−0.3718
O'HaraCM900.100.0500.1133
WattST810.150.0100.0423
MainST900.100.1400.0700
Kiltie FW440.000.0710.0821
Small FW220.000.0000.0133
GreiveFW270.000.000−0.0100
OffordFW90.000.0000.0210
GallagherDF80.000.0100.0330

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WalkerGK900.000.0000.0330
MayoCB900.000.0000.0129
TaylorCB900.020.0000.00112
ChambersCB900.000.0730.17119
ArmstrongRWB9010.780.2320.2486
PowerCM900.030.0000.0316
DonnellyCM9010.340.0100.0926
WatsonCM900.150.2330.2156
McKenzieLWB760.520.0000.0243
VassellST7210.170.3020.0932
DoidgeST7010.110.0100.0110
LyonsMF200.000.000−0.0103
RobinsonMF180.150.0010.0011
Jones MF140.030.0310.0660

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Carson and Strain: 3 passesStrain and Gogic: 3 passesShaughnessy and Watt: 3 passesDunne and Main: 3 passesFraser and Gogic: 3 passesO'Hara and Watt: 3 passesStrain and Watt: 4 passesTanser and O'Hara: 4 passesTanser and Watt: 4 passesCarson and Tanser: 5 passesStrain and Main: 5 passesShaughnessy and O'Hara: 5 passesStrain and Baccus: 7 passesCarson: 6 completed passesStrain: 13 completed passesShaughnessy: 13 completed passesDunne: 4 completed passesFraser: 8 completed passesTanser: 11 completed passesBaccus: 5 completed passesGogic: 7 completed passesO'Hara: 7 completed passesMain: 5 completed passesWatt: 6 completed passes12341822317136109CarsonStrainShaughnessyDunneFraserTanserBaccusGogicO'HaraMainWattStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Kilmarnock

Walker and Doidge: 3 passesChambers and Doidge: 3 passesChambers and Vassell: 3 passesTaylor and Doidge: 3 passesMayo and Power: 3 passesMayo and Watson: 3 passesMayo and Donnelly: 3 passesArmstrong and Power: 3 passesArmstrong and Doidge: 3 passesMcKenzie and Power: 3 passesMcKenzie and Doidge: 3 passesChambers and Power: 4 passesMcKenzie and Vassell: 4 passesPower and Watson: 4 passesWatson and Donnelly: 4 passesDoidge and Vassell: 4 passesMayo and Armstrong: 6 passesArmstrong and Watson: 6 passesArmstrong and Donnelly: 6 passesArmstrong and Vassell: 6 passesWalker: 6 completed passesChambers: 10 completed passesTaylor: 9 completed passesMayo: 10 completed passesArmstrong: 19 completed passesMcKenzie: 8 completed passesPower: 16 completed passesWatson: 12 completed passesDonnelly: 9 completed passesDoidge: 7 completed passesVassell: 10 completed passes202452117434222623WalkerChambersTaylorMayoArmstrongMcKenziePowerWatsonDonnellyDoidgeVassellStarters until 70' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
O'HaraShaughnessy8
ShaughnessyO'Hara6
StrainMain5
DunneMain4
StrainWatt4

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PowerChambers7
ChambersJones7
JonesChambers6
ArmstrongWatson4
TaylorDoidge3

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

5+0.24−3.410−3.67−0.98+3.89−0.25−2.23−1.89+2.48+1.111+4.650.02−1.23−1.48+1.54−0.52−1.94+1.70−3.55+1.22−0.72+0.32+1.12+0.22−0.10−1.00−0.71+0.20−0.51+0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 32 matches

Kilmarnock

1−4.313+5.923+9.76−1.16+1.29+1.410+2.47+1.315+8.211+3.27+0.16+0.13−0.93−2.78+3.28+2.94−0.32−0.22−1.75+0.91−1.51−1.110.03+1.21−1.63+1.60−0.90−0.80−0.40−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 32 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.020.010.010.010.020.010.010.050.020.080.030.040.070.030.020.010.020.03−0.010.01−0.16−0.05−0.080.010.120.10LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.020.010.040.020.020.060.010.040.030.100.100.030.15−0.050.11−0.030.010.25LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.26AttackSt. Mirren1.09 → 1.05Kilmarnock1.01 → 1.06Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.27 → 1.32Kilmarnock1.44 → 1.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six96%80%−16
Kilmarnock
11th33%29%−4
Bottom33%15%−18
Ross County
11th30%25%−5
Bottom44%54%+10
Livingston
Top six20%30%+10

From the forecast before the match (22 April 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Expected goals1.500.93
Win50%23%
Expected Points1.770.96
Clean sheet40%22%

St. Mirren 50%Draw 27%Kilmarnock 23%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 47%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+8%4%1%6%2%9%4%1%5%5%2%2%2%9%13%13%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 22 April 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawKilmarnock win
St. Mirren
Top six96%>99%>99%80%
Kilmarnock
11th33%33%35%29%
Bottom33%41%32%15%
Ross County
11th30%32%29%25%
Bottom44%40%44%54%
Livingston
Top six20%18%17%30%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L2–515 AprRangers (A)xG 0.30–3.67
  2. W2–08 AprHearts (A)xG 1.25–0.94
  3. W3–01 AprLivingston (H)xG 3.07–1.20
  4. D1–118 MarDundee United (A)xG 1.75–1.12
  5. L1–55 MarCeltic (H)xG 0.79–2.48
  6. D1–125 FebSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.59–0.39

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–416 AprCeltic (H)xG 1.73–2.56
  2. L0–28 AprAberdeen (A)xG 1.09–2.20
  3. W2–11 AprHearts (H)xG 2.72–0.68
  4. D1–118 MarSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.31–0.57
  5. L1–34 MarRangers (A)xG 0.79–3.55
  6. D1–125 FebMotherwell (H)xG 0.75–1.24

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Position5th11th
Played3232
Won, drawn, lost12–⁠8–⁠127–⁠7–⁠18
Points44 (1.38 per game)28 (0.88 per game)
Expected Points per game1.241.14
Goals38–⁠4727–⁠58
xG per game1.16–⁠1.361.04–⁠1.45
Home: points, xG per game1.94, 1.29–⁠1.071.62, 1.38–⁠1.15
Away: points, xG per game0.81, 1.04–⁠1.650.12, 0.69–⁠1.75
ManagerStephen Robinson (25)Derek McInnes (32)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.26AttackSt. Mirren1.09, 7thKilmarnock1.01, 8thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.27, 5thKilmarnock1.44, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprSt. Mirren attack: 1.09Kilmarnock attack: 1.011.091.01KilmarnockSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprSt. Mirren defence: 1.27Kilmarnock defence: 1.441.441.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−24%−4%−31%+9%
Counter-attacks−26%−12%−48%+13%
Set pieces+3%−15%+34%+18%
Penalties+24%+70%−69%−7%
Headers+13%−4%+14%−15%
Left side−16%−1%average−2%
Centre−17%−7%−26%+18%
Right side−20%−15%−14%+12%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−16%+12%Centre−17%+18%Right side−20%−2%Open play−24%+9%Counter-attacks−26%+13%Set pieces+3%+18%Headers+13%−15%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Mirren concededLeft sideaverage−15%Centre−26%−7%Right side−14%−1%Open play−31%−4%Counter-attacks−48%−12%Set pieces+34%−15%Headers+14%−4%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenKilmarnock

1.16xG1.04
1.36xG against1.45
38%Possession44%
12.0Shots11.6
12.2Shots against12.9
3.3Shots on target3.1
1.6Big chances1.4
19.8Touches in the opposition box19.5
276Passes321
62%Pass accuracy65%
5.4Corners4.5
39%Field tilt43%
31.3Final-third entries33.2
9.2Box entries9.1
16.6Passes per defensive action14.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.111.33
Ahead241.421.21
Behind241.001.56

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level301.181.12
Ahead181.011.21
Behind420.951.79

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.176–6
16–300.150.183–6
31–450.220.258–6
46–600.200.219–8
61–750.190.204–9
76–900.260.358–12

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.213–13
16–300.170.284–14
31–450.230.237–7
46–600.270.216–7
61–750.130.194–8
76–900.120.323–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTCarson 32Strain 29Fraser 2Flynn 1Fraser 25Gallagher 19Gogic 11Shaughne… 9ShaughnessyDunne 29R. Taylor 3Tanser 16Tait 7O'Hara 5Baccus 26Kiltie 13Tanser 3Erhahon 20Gogic 7O'Hara 23Flynn 2Ayunga 16Greive 10Watt 6Main 30Brophy 15-3-2 in 25 of 32 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (25), 3-5-2 (7)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTWalker 22Hemming 10Mayo 14Alebiosu 11Armstrong 4Taylor 20Wright 21Mayo 10Dorsett 7Chrisene 7Chambers 6McInroy 6Armstrong 14McKenzie 5Jones 3Polworth 12Armstrong 4Watson 4Power 21Donnelly 10Alston 4McKenzie 12Jones 8Taylor 3Doidge 15Lafferty 8Cameron 5Vassell 9Robinson 5Shaw 54-4-2 in 9 of 32 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (9), 3-5-2 (4), 3-4-2-1 (4), 5-3-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-5-1-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 4-5-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-3-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
2 January 2023Kilmarnock0–0St. MirrenxG 0.70–0.35
15 October 2022St. Mirren0–0KilmarnockxG 0.68–1.13
12 May 2021Kilmarnock3–3St. MirrenxG 1.33–1.21
6 February 2021St. Mirren2–0KilmarnockxG 1.56–0.49
2 January 2021Kilmarnock1–1St. MirrenxG 0.97–0.52
26 September 2020St. Mirren0–1KilmarnockxG 0.49–0.65

6 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 1, Kilmarnock won 1, and 4 were drawn. Goals 6–5 and xG 0.80–0.88 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ayunga161,288320.420.04
O'Hara282,3611010.290.07
Greive10937300.330.02
Watt6512100.260.05

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong252,236750.200.23
Vassell9752010.280.09
Robinson5525200.250.08
Shaw7628000.250.02

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.