Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Motherwell 1–2 Hearts

Saturday 11 November 2023, 15:00 · Fir Park · Round 13 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee David Munro · Attendance 5,884

Motherwell Spittal 78' (pen)

Hearts Shankland 27', 71'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

MotherwellHearts
Goals12
xG1.102.08
Non-penalty xG0.312.08
Expected Points0.632.10

Motherwell 12%Draw 27%Hearts 61%

Most likely score 1–2, 21%. Final score 1–2, 21%.

Hearts goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+1%4%5%3%1%4%13%5%1%1%5%7%4%2%18%21%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTSpencer on for Bair, 46'Obika on for Wilkinson and Shaw on for Biereth, 72'Gent on for O'Donnell, 78'Mugabi on for Slattery, 90+1'Sibbick on for Forrest, 56'Grant on for Lowry, 75'Vargas on for Boyce, 83'Spittal 78' (pen)Shankland 27'Shankland 71'Hearts 2.08Motherwell 1.1001230153045607590HTSpencer on for Bair, 46'Obika on for Wilkinson and Shaw on for Biereth, 72'Gent on for O'Donnell, 78'Mugabi on for Slattery, 90+1'Sibbick on for Forrest, 56'Grant on for Lowry, 75'Vargas on for Boyce, 83'Spittal 78' (pen)Shankland 27'Shankland 71'2.081.10MotherwellHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

MotherwellHearts

1.10 −0.10xG2.08 +0.99
0.31Non-penalty xG2.08
0.99 −0.20xG on target1.68 +0.43
8 −3Shots14 0
1 −2.8Shots on target3 −1.5
1 −0.7Big chances1 −0.1
21 0Touches in the opposition box27 −1
40% −6Possession60% +1
321 −40Passes485 +2
66% −1Pass accuracy77% +1
42% −5Field tilt58% −1
26 −7Final-third entries33 −13
10 −1Box entries12 −3
37.3 +23Passes per defensive action13.6 +1
4 −0.9Corners10 +2.3
14 −3Tackles8 −5
7 −1.0Interceptions4 −2.9
18 −6Clearances28 +10
1 −1.4Saves0 −2.5
13 0Fouls12 0
0 −1.3Offsides1 +0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Motherwell

Shaw 76', 0.13 xGSpittal 88', 0.06 xGBair 4', 0.05 xGBlaney 25', 0.03 xGCasey 47', 0.03 xGSlattery 7', 0.01 xGCasey 44', 0.01 xG41%0.13 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.13 xG, 0 goals25%0.08 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals9%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals22%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals3%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Shankland 49', 0.26 xGBoyce 17', 0.17 xGKingsley 49', 0.12 xGShankland 20', 0.09 xGLowry 74', 0.09 xGShankland 20', 0.08 xGShankland 69', 0.07 xGLowry 20', 0.06 xGKent 27', 0.05 xGBoyce 70', 0.05 xGLowry 2', 0.03 xGRowles 81', 0.01 xGShankland 27', 0.71 xG, goalShankland 71', 0.28 xG, goal47%0.96 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.96 xG, 1 goal42%0.86 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.86 xG, 1 goal2%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals5%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals4%0.09 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.09 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

MotherwellHearts

0.07 3 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.83 8 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.09 1 shot, 0 goals
0.24 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces1.15 5 shots, 1 goal
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
27 min (30%) · Motherwell 0.08, Hearts 1.19 xG
Hearts ahead
64 min (70%) · Motherwell 1.02, Hearts 0.89 xG

Line-ups

115662028127992414KellyCaseyButcherBlaneyO'DonnellSlatteryPatonSpittalWilkinsonBierethBairYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal78'90+1'72'72'46'Motherwell 3-4-3Stuart Kettlewell28321517865119910ClarkKingsleyKentRowlesForrestNieuwenhofBaningimeLowryCochraneShanklandBoyceYellow cardGoalGoal56'75'83'Hearts 3-5-2Steven Naismith

Motherwell substitutes

  • 46' Spencer for Bair
  • 72' Obika for Wilkinson
  • 72' Shaw for Biereth
  • 78' Gent for O'Donnell · yellow card 89'
  • 90+1' Mugabi for Slattery

Hearts substitutes

  • 56' Sibbick for Forrest · yellow card 86'
  • 75' Grant for Lowry
  • 83' Vargas for Boyce

Players

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0230
CaseyCB900.040.0100.02411
Butcher CB900.000.0100.0433
BlaneyCB900.030.3600.2047
O'DonnellRWB780.000.0700.1265
Slattery CM900.010.0900.0633
Paton CM900.000.0100.0433
SpittalLWB9010.850.1510.1447
WilkinsonRW720.000.0310.0112
BierethST720.000.061−0.0410
BairLW460.050.030−0.0420
SpencerDF440.000.0100.0660
ObikaFW180.000.0000.0110
ShawFW180.130.001−0.0100
Gent DF120.000.0700.0713
MugabiDF00.000.0000.0000

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0230
KingsleyCB900.120.0200.11103
KentCB9010.050.0510.04410
RowlesCB900.010.0400.16810
ForrestRWB560.000.1010.07100
NieuwenhofCM900.000.0200.0314
Baningime CM9010.000.2220.0434
LowryCM750.180.4640.0920
CochraneLWB900.000.0910.0674
ShanklandST9021.490.0110.1612
BoyceST830.220.0200.0103
Sibbick DF340.000.0100.0460
GrantMF150.000.051−0.0100
VargasMF70.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

Kelly and O'Donnell: 3 passesCasey and Slattery: 3 passesButcher and Paton: 3 passesO'Donnell and Slattery: 3 passesO'Donnell and Wilkinson: 3 passesSpittal and Paton: 3 passesPaton and Bair: 3 passesSlattery and Bair: 3 passesCasey and Butcher: 4 passesBiereth and Bair: 4 passesSpittal and Slattery: 5 passesSpittal and Bair: 5 passesKelly and Spittal: 8 passesCasey and O'Donnell: 8 passesKelly: 12 completed passesCasey: 14 completed passesBlaney: 3 completed passesButcher: 5 completed passesO'Donnell: 12 completed passesSpittal: 13 completed passesPaton: 7 completed passesSlattery: 10 completed passesWilkinson: 6 completed passesBiereth: 6 completed passesBair: 8 completed passes115206627128992414KellyCaseyBlaneyButcherO'DonnellSpittalPatonSlatteryWilkinsonBierethBairStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Rowles and Forrest: 4 passesRowles and Lowry: 4 passesKent and Nieuwenhof: 4 passesKingsley and Lowry: 4 passesForrest and Baningime: 4 passesLowry and Shankland: 4 passesRowles and Kingsley: 5 passesKent and Baningime: 5 passesKingsley and Baningime: 5 passesNieuwenhof and Baningime: 5 passesLowry and Boyce: 5 passesClark and Kent: 6 passesClark and Kingsley: 6 passesRowles and Shankland: 6 passesForrest and Shankland: 6 passesCochrane and Lowry: 6 passesKent and Forrest: 7 passesKent and Cochrane: 7 passesRowles and Baningime: 9 passesKingsley and Nieuwenhof: 10 passesRowles and Cochrane: 14 passesForrest and Nieuwenhof: 18 passesKingsley and Forrest: 26 passesRowles and Kent: 28 passesKent and Kingsley: 32 passesClark: 11 completed passesRowles: 40 completed passesKent: 48 completed passesKingsley: 50 completed passesForrest: 32 completed passesCochrane: 19 completed passesNieuwenhof: 25 completed passesBaningime: 20 completed passesLowry: 16 completed passesShankland: 8 completed passesBoyce: 3 completed passes28152317198651910ClarkRowlesKentKingsleyForrestCochraneNieuwenhofBaningimeLowryShanklandBoyceStarters until 56' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Motherwell

FromToPasses
CaseyO'Donnell8
KellySpittal7
ButcherCasey7
SpencerSpittal6
O'DonnellCasey5

Hearts

FromToPasses
KentRowles21
KingsleyKent20
KentKingsley16
KingsleyForrest15
RowlesCochrane12

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Motherwell

4−0.96−1.715−1.85−2.311+4.95−2.39+2.46−2.35−1.88+1.89+4.85−0.210+3.28+2.25+0.430.06+2.82−2.20−2.50−2.30−1.61−0.41−1.210.00−0.70−0.81+0.20−0.93−5.32−4.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Hearts

7−0.815+2.47−0.54−1.010+4.15+1.310+2.95−1.611+4.96+0.55+1.26+0.44−2.73−1.34−0.96+2.93−0.62−3.41−0.41−0.60−1.21−0.30−2.40−0.610.00−0.61+0.310.02−4.04−4.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Motherwell

0.010.020.030.010.020.030.030.010.030.010.020.010.060.04−0.010.070.030.07−0.01−0.100.070.28LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.020.020.010.010.010.020.030.020.020.040.050.040.040.020.040.070.010.070.060.010.100.11LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackMotherwell1.16 → 1.13Hearts1.25 → 1.28Defence (lower is better)Motherwell1.38 → 1.41Hearts1.33 → 1.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
Top six33%22%−11
11th8%10%+2
Bottom4%7%+3
Hearts
Top six66%78%+12
11th2%1%−1
Bottom1%<1%−1

From the forecast before the match (11 November 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

MotherwellHearts
Expected goals1.411.20
Win41%31%
Expected Points1.511.21
Clean sheet30%24%

Motherwell 41%Draw 27%Hearts 31%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hearts goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%7%9%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 November 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowMotherwell winDrawHearts win
Motherwell
Top six33%42%30%22%
11th8%5%8%10%
Bottom4%2%4%7%
Hearts
Top six66%57%66%78%
11th2%3%2%1%
Bottom1%1%1%<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Motherwell

  1. D2–27 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.58–0.93
  2. L0–14 NovKilmarnock (A)xG 0.61–1.95
  3. L2–41 NovAberdeen (H)xG 1.44–2.24
  4. D3–328 OctRoss County (H)xG 2.34–1.92
  5. L0–27 OctLivingston (A)xG 0.06–2.59
  6. L1–230 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.82–1.68

Hearts

  1. W1–01 NovLivingston (H)xG 1.91–0.21
  2. L1–229 OctRangers (A)xG 0.24–4.03
  3. L1–422 OctCeltic (H)xG 0.73–4.01
  4. D2–27 OctHibernian (H)xG 1.25–1.32
  5. W1–030 SepRoss County (A)xG 0.98–0.40
  6. L0–123 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.19–1.59

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellHearts
Position9th5th
Played1211
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠3–⁠64–⁠2–⁠5
Points12 (1.00 per game)14 (1.27 per game)
Expected Points per game1.181.29
Goals14–⁠1910–⁠11
xG per game1.20–⁠1.491.09–⁠1.49
Home: points, xG per game1.17, 1.42–⁠1.381.33, 1.16–⁠1.32
Away: points, xG per game0.83, 0.98–⁠1.601.20, 1.01–⁠1.70
ManagerStuart Kettlewell (26)Steven Naismith (7)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackMotherwell1.16, 7thHearts1.25, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.38, 7thHearts1.33, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovMotherwell attack: 1.16Hearts attack: 1.251.251.16HeartsMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovMotherwell defence: 1.38Hearts defence: 1.331.381.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−9%+11%−7%+6%
Counter-attacks−46%+31%−37%−36%
Set pieces−22%−5%−21%+1%
Penalties+3%+3%−100%+69%
Headers−27%+26%−34%−9%
Left side−24%+50%−28%−7%
Centre+5%−14%−16%+3%
Right side−47%+10%+6%+8%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdHearts concededLeft side−24%+8%Centre+5%+3%Right side−47%−7%Open play−9%+6%Counter-attacks−46%−36%Set pieces−22%+1%Headers−27%−9%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdMotherwell concededLeft side−28%+10%Centre−16%−14%Right side+6%+50%Open play−7%+11%Counter-attacks−37%+31%Set pieces−21%−5%Headers−34%+26%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellHearts

1.20xG1.09
1.49xG against1.49
46%Possession59%
10.9Shots14.2
14.2Shots against12.9
3.8Shots on target4.5
1.7Big chances1.1
21.0Touches in the opposition box28.2
361Passes483
67%Pass accuracy76%
4.9Corners7.7
47%Field tilt59%
32.8Final-third entries46.3
11.1Box entries14.8
14.6Passes per defensive action12.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level500.891.14
Ahead90.502.69
Behind311.911.71

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.141.01
Ahead220.792.12
Behind231.301.80

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.040.120–1
16–300.140.181–4
31–450.170.161–1
46–600.100.361–3
61–750.280.283–6
76–900.470.398–4

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.060.222–2
16–300.120.301–2
31–450.080.170–0
46–600.180.411–1
61–750.320.094–3
76–900.330.302–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWKelly 12McGinn 9Mugabi 10Butcher 2Casey 12Blaney 3O'Donnell 11McGinn 1Paton 7Slattery 4Wilkinson 1Spittal 6Miller 5Spencer 1Spencer 8Souaré 2Paton 1Slattery 6Miller 3Paton 1Bair 4Wilkinson 3Slattery 1Bair 6Spittal 4Wilkinson 13-4-3 in 5 of 12 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (5), 3-5-2 (4), 3-4-2-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTClark 11Atkinson 5Sibbick 4Kingsley 1Kent 11Rowles 11Kingsley 7Cochrane 2Boyce 1Devlin 7Lowry 2Baningime 1Nieuwenhof 5Haring 4Grant 1Oda 5Forrest 3Devlin 1Boyce 3Shankland 2Baningime 2Vargas 4Lowry 3Cochrane 2Shankland 9Vargas 1Tagawa 14-2-3-1 in 8 of 11 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (8), 3-5-2 (2), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
3 September 2023Hearts0–1MotherwellxG 1.51–1.14
19 February 2023Motherwell2–0HeartsxG 1.33–0.94
6 November 2022Hearts3–2MotherwellxG 2.61–2.25
18 September 2022Motherwell0–3HeartsxG 2.83–1.92
11 May 2022Motherwell2–1HeartsxG 1.42–1.31
29 January 2022Hearts2–0MotherwellxG 1.65–0.76

8 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 4, Hearts won 4, and 0 were drawn. Goals 9–11 and xG 1.63–1.55 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Spittal121,080120.150.20
Wilkinson5491210.170.14
Bair10806200.250.04
Slattery11916100.180.09

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland11990300.300.19
Lowry6470010.120.25
Forrest4468200.180.16
Vargas7629100.150.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.