Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Hearts 3–2 Motherwell

Sunday 6 November 2022, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 14 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Kevin Clancy · Attendance 18,806

Hearts Halliday 45', 47', Shankland 89' (pen) · Grant sent off 38'

Motherwell Moult 61' (pen), Spittal 79'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsMotherwell
Goals32
xG2.612.25
Non-penalty xG1.821.46
Expected Points1.621.12

Hearts 45%Draw 26%Motherwell 29%

Most likely score 2–2, 12%. Final score 3–2, 10%.

Motherwell goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+4%5%4%1%1%7%8%3%1%7%8%3%3%5%4%2%1%2%1%12%10%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTGrant (Hearts), red card 38'Atkinson on for Halliday and Neilson on for Ginnelly, 77'Rowles on for McKay, 90'O'Donnell on for McGinn, 20'Moult on for Shields, 55'Halliday 45'Halliday 47'Shankland 89' (pen)Moult 61' (pen)Spittal 79'Hearts 2.61Motherwell 2.2501230153045607590HTGrant (Hearts), red card 38'Atkinson on for Halliday and Neilson on for Ginnelly, 77'Rowles on for McKay, 90'O'Donnell on for McGinn, 20'Moult on for Shields, 55'Halliday 45'Halliday 47'Shankland 89' (pen)Moult 61' (pen)Spittal 79'2.612.25HeartsMotherwell

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsMotherwell

2.61 +1.22xG2.25 +0.88
1.82Non-penalty xG1.46
2.97 +1.71xG on target2.34 +1.20
15 +3Shots18 +6
7 +2.7Shots on target5 +1.5
2 0.0Big chances2 0.0
28 +8Touches in the opposition box19 +2
46% −4Possession54% +5
337 −73Passes377 +12
77% +4Pass accuracy80% +12
46% −1Field tilt54% +1
25 −8Final-third entries40 +4
10 −0.7Box entries10 +1.5
19.9 +5Passes per defensive action17.5 +5
6 +2.4Corners11 +6.4
16 −2Tackles14 −2
8 −1.2Interceptions6 −4.2
23 +7Clearances9 −7
3 −0.6Saves4 +1.6
8 −3Fouls15 +2
3 +2.2Offsides3 +1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Shankland 12', 0.63 xGHalliday 45', 0.28 xGDevlin 32', 0.22 xGDevlin 33', 0.17 xGHalliday 22', 0.10 xGShankland 53', 0.08 xGMcKay 4', 0.06 xGShankland 13', 0.04 xGGrant 24', 0.04 xGAtkinson 81', 0.04 xGDevlin 24', 0.03 xGShankland 13', 0.01 xGHalliday 45', 0.06 xG, goalHalliday 47', 0.06 xG, goal15%0.28 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.28 xG, 0 goals62%1.13 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 1.13 xG, 1 goal14%0.26 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.26 xG, 1 goal4%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals4%0.08 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals

Motherwell

Lamie 45+4', 0.16 xGMoult 75', 0.14 xGSlattery 36', 0.10 xGvan Veen 26', 0.09 xGLamie 90+3', 0.08 xGvan Veen 8', 0.07 xGvan Veen 72', 0.06 xGMcKinstry 51', 0.05 xGSpittal 52', 0.04 xGPenney 45+4', 0.03 xGvan Veen 78', 0.03 xGSlattery 90+2', 0.03 xGSlattery 3', 0.02 xGvan Veen 56', 0.02 xGMoult 90+2', 0.02 xGPenney 90+2', 0.02 xGSpittal 79', 0.50 xG, goal45%0.66 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.66 xG, 1 goal21%0.31 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.31 xG, 0 goals3%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals28%0.41 xGEdge of the box: 9 shots, 0.41 xG, 0 goals3%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsMotherwell

1.35 9 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.13 13 shots, 1 goal
0.08 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.39 4 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.34 4 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
55 min (57%) · Hearts 2.48, Motherwell 0.28 xG
Hearts ahead
42 min (43%) · Hearts 0.13, Motherwell 1.97 xG

Line-ups

122119161430777189GordonM. SmithSibbickCochraneHallidayDevlinGinnellyGrantSnodgrassMcKayShanklandYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoalSent offGoal77'77'90'Hearts 4-1-4-1Robbie Neilson11615424827297179KellyMcGinnJohansenLamiePenneySlatteryGossShieldsSpittalMcKinstryvan VeenYellow cardGoalYellow card20'55'Motherwell 4-2-3-1Steven Hammell

Hearts substitutes

  • 77' Neilson for Ginnelly
  • 77' Atkinson for Halliday
  • 90' Rowles for McKay

Motherwell substitutes

  • 20' O'Donnell for McGinn
  • 55' Moult for Shields · goal 61' (pen), yellow card 61'

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Gordon GK900.000.0000.0241
M. SmithRB900.000.0200.0746
Sibbick CB900.000.0010.0115
CochraneCB900.000.0100.07212
HallidayLB7720.500.0200.0124
DevlinDM900.420.0100.0126
GinnellyRM770.000.0210.0332
Grant CM380.040.0300.0014
SnodgrassCM9010.000.8260.2047
McKayLM900.060.0700.17133
ShanklandST9011.540.1800.0633
NeilsonDF130.000.0000.0000
AtkinsonDF130.040.0000.0000
RowlesDF00.000.0000.0114

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0210
McGinnRB200.000.0110.0231
JohansenCB900.000.0000.0326
Lamie CB900.240.0210.0767
PenneyLB900.050.0900.0832
SlatteryDM900.150.0700.1382
GossDM900.000.0600.20136
ShieldsRW550.000.000−0.0100
SpittalAM9010.530.5140.1041
McKinstry LW9010.050.8430.4072
van VeenST900.280.0100.0211
O'DonnellDF700.000.0210.0453
Moult FW3510.950.021−0.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Gordon and M. Smith: 3 passesM. Smith and Snodgrass: 3 passesSibbick and Ginnelly: 3 passesCochrane and Snodgrass: 3 passesGinnelly and Grant: 3 passesGrant and Snodgrass: 3 passesGrant and McKay: 3 passesM. Smith and Shankland: 4 passesCochrane and Devlin: 4 passesHalliday and Snodgrass: 4 passesGrant and Shankland: 4 passesSnodgrass and Shankland: 4 passesDevlin and Snodgrass: 5 passesGordon and Sibbick: 6 passesSibbick and Devlin: 6 passesM. Smith and Grant: 8 passesSibbick and Cochrane: 8 passesDevlin and Grant: 8 passesHalliday and McKay: 9 passesM. Smith and Devlin: 10 passesM. Smith and Ginnelly: 10 passesSnodgrass and McKay: 10 passesM. Smith and Sibbick: 13 passesGordon: 11 completed passesM. Smith: 29 completed passesSibbick: 22 completed passesCochrane: 11 completed passesHalliday: 12 completed passesDevlin: 20 completed passesGinnelly: 8 completed passesGrant: 16 completed passesSnodgrass: 18 completed passesMcKay: 9 completed passesShankland: 8 completed passes122119161430777189GordonM. SmithSibbickCochraneHallidayDevlinGinnellyGrantSnodgrassMcKayShanklandStarters until 38' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
SnodgrassMcKay13
M. SmithGinnelly11
M. SmithShankland10
SibbickM. Smith10
HallidayMcKay8

Motherwell

FromToPasses
JohansenLamie14
LamieGoss13
LamieJohansen13
PenneyLamie11
SpittalGoss10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

2−2.98+1.717+5.510+4.26+2.48+0.22−4.22−4.49+0.95−2.36+0.61−4.15+1.46+0.74−1.41−3.31−2.50−2.92−0.75+0.30−4.12+0.10−0.81−0.22−0.10−0.51+0.71+0.50−0.21+0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Motherwell

5−0.17+2.47+0.82−3.23−3.45−0.85−1.25−2.35−2.53−4.05−0.51−1.92−4.96−0.84−0.86+2.25+1.32−1.57+1.52−1.00−1.010.00−2.11−2.71−0.13+2.52+1.10−0.40−1.55−7.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.040.010.050.050.030.020.010.050.040.04−0.010.040.05−0.010.20LessMore

Motherwell

0.010.030.030.020.010.020.040.010.060.060.040.060.010.090.010.020.01−0.010.010.050.150.190.15LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.22AttackHearts1.22 → 1.25Motherwell1.07 → 1.08Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.30 → 1.30Motherwell1.29 → 1.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six75%83%+8
11th1%1%0
Motherwell
Top six38%31%−7
11th4%5%+1
Bottom2%2%0

From the forecast before the match (6 November 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsMotherwell
Expected goals1.551.03
Win49%25%
Expected Points1.721.01
Clean sheet36%21%

Hearts 49%Draw 27%Motherwell 25%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

Motherwell goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%7%4%1%6%2%9%5%2%5%5%2%2%2%1%11%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 6 November 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawMotherwell win
Hearts
Top six75%83%72%64%
11th1%1%1%1%
Motherwell
Top six38%31%38%53%
11th4%5%4%2%
Bottom2%2%1%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W2–130 OctRoss County (A)xG 0.65–1.44
  2. L3–422 OctCeltic (H)xG 2.90–2.82
  3. L0–216 OctAberdeen (A)xG 1.36–1.73
  4. D2–29 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 1.17–1.68
  5. L0–41 OctRangers (H)xG 0.41–1.85
  6. W3–018 SepMotherwell (A)xG 1.92–2.83

Motherwell

  1. W1–029 OctDundee United (A)xG 0.92–0.75
  2. L1–222 OctAberdeen (H)xG 0.71–1.11
  3. L1–216 OctRangers (H)xG 0.17–1.16
  4. L0–18 OctHibernian (A)xG 0.34–0.67
  5. W5–04 OctRoss County (A)xG 2.58–0.52
  6. L1–21 OctCeltic (A)xG 0.35–3.50

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsMotherwell
Position8th9th
Played1213
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠2–⁠55–⁠1–⁠7
Points17 (1.42 per game)16 (1.23 per game)
Expected Points per game1.121.43
Goals20–⁠2116–⁠16
xG per game1.39–⁠1.761.37–⁠1.25
Home: points, xG per game1.80, 1.93–⁠1.640.67, 1.51–⁠0.95
Away: points, xG per game1.14, 1.01–⁠1.851.71, 1.25–⁠1.52
ManagerRobbie Neilson (50)Steven Hammell (13)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.22AttackHearts1.22, 3rdMotherwell1.07, 6thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.30, 7thMotherwell1.29, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovHearts attack: 1.22Motherwell attack: 1.071.221.07MotherwellHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovHearts defence: 1.30Motherwell defence: 1.291.301.29

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+18%+64%−6%+18%
Counter-attacks−71%−46%+134%−15%
Set pieces−28%+11%−13%−15%
Penalties+60%−47%+97%−100%
Headers−25%+41%−31%+35%
Left side+8%+38%+7%−16%
Centre+4%+61%−14%+42%
Right side+1%+39%+10%−16%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdMotherwell concededLeft side+8%−16%Centre+4%+42%Right side+1%−16%Open play+18%+18%Counter-attacks−71%−15%Set pieces−28%−15%Headers−25%+35%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdHearts concededLeft side+7%+39%Centre−14%+61%Right side+10%+38%Open play−6%+64%Counter-attacks+134%−46%Set pieces−13%+11%Headers−31%+41%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsMotherwell

1.39xG1.37
1.76xG against1.25
50%Possession49%
12.0Shots12.5
14.2Shots against11.8
4.3Shots on target3.5
2.0Big chances2.0
19.6Touches in the opposition box17.1
410Passes365
73%Pass accuracy68%
3.6Corners4.6
47%Field tilt52%
33.4Final-third entries36.1
10.7Box entries8.5
14.6Passes per defensive action12.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level292.071.86
Ahead311.111.93
Behind301.011.49

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.561.60
Ahead241.191.01
Behind261.250.95

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.222–5
16–300.240.194–2
31–450.290.272–0
46–600.210.364–5
61–750.210.283–2
76–900.230.435–7

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.231–2
16–300.170.193–2
31–450.250.252–1
46–600.280.196–3
61–750.300.191–5
76–900.280.213–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 11Stewart 1M. Smith 7Sibbick 2Atkinson 2Rowles 5Sibbick 4Neilson 4Kingsley 6Cochrane 2Cochrane 8Halliday 3Kiomourtzoglou 1Devlin 6Haring 4Kiomourtzoglou 3Halliday 4Snodgrass 4Grant 2Forrest 4Ginnelly 3McKay 2Boyce 3Kiomourtzoglou 2McKay 2McKay 6Mackay-Steven 3Forrest 2Shankland 7Humphrys 3Ginnelly 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 12 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-1-4-1 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTKelly 13McGinn 13Johansen 13Mugabi 2Lamie 11Penney 8O'Donnell 4Carroll 1Slattery 7Maguire 4Goss 10Cornelius 3Tierney 1Shields 5Spittal 2Morris 2Spittal 3Tierney 3Goss 2Spittal 7Shields 2McKinstry 2van Veen 11Shields 1Efford 14-2-3-1 in 7 of 13 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 4-3-3 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
18 September 2022Motherwell0–3HeartsxG 2.83–1.92
11 May 2022Motherwell2–1HeartsxG 1.42–1.31
29 January 2022Hearts2–0MotherwellxG 1.65–0.76
20 November 2021Motherwell2–0HeartsxG 2.16–0.30
2 October 2021Hearts2–0MotherwellxG 2.16–1.12

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 3, Motherwell won 2, and 0 were drawn. Goals 8–4 and xG 1.47–1.66 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland8802820.690.05
Forrest8685300.280.07
McKay10879210.110.15
Devlin6454010.080.12

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
van Veen131,126700.680.10
Shields9687020.120.16
Spittal12862120.100.14
Goss131,138010.090.09

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.