Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Motherwell 2–0 Hearts

Sunday 19 February 2023, 12:00 · Fir Park · Round 26 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 6,968

Motherwell Obika 40', Spittal 46'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

MotherwellHearts
Goals20
xG1.330.94
Expected Points1.661.03

Motherwell 45%Draw 31%Hearts 24%

Most likely score 1–1, 16%. Final score 2–0, 9%.

Hearts goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+9%9%4%1%7%2%9%10%5%1%4%4%2%14%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTSlattery on for Cornelius, 80'O'Donnell on for Goss, 83'Mugabi on for Butcher and Danzaki on for Spittal, 89'Grant on for Devlin, 46'Forrest on for Smith, 59'Atkinson on for Hill and Kuol on for Humphrys, 60'Oda on for Cochrane, 78'Obika 40'Spittal 46'Motherwell 1.33Hearts 0.9400.511.50153045607590HTSlattery on for Cornelius, 80'O'Donnell on for Goss, 83'Mugabi on for Butcher and Danzaki on for Spittal, 89'Grant on for Devlin, 46'Forrest on for Smith, 59'Atkinson on for Hill and Kuol on for Humphrys, 60'Oda on for Cochrane, 78'Obika 40'Spittal 46'1.330.94MotherwellHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

MotherwellHearts

1.33 +0.15xG0.94 −0.69
1.13 +0.10xG on target0.25 −1.14
13 +2Shots13 +1
3 −0.2Shots on target3 −1.3
2 +0.5Big chances2 −0.3
19 +3Touches in the opposition box21 −1
33% −16Possession67% +12
282 −80Passes592 +155
66% −1Pass accuracy82% +6
40% −10Field tilt60% +11
28 −7Final-third entries49 +15
7 −1.3Box entries13 +1.7
16.2 +3Passes per defensive action16.8 +2
5 0.0Corners9 +4.1
20 +4Tackles5 −11
13 +3.6Interceptions4 −4.4
24 +6Clearances19 +1
3 +0.4Saves1 −2.6
14 0Fouls8 −2
4 +2.2Offsides1 −0.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Motherwell

Johnston 65', 0.14 xGObika 65', 0.11 xGvan Veen 87', 0.11 xGSpittal 29', 0.07 xGGoss 39', 0.05 xGvan Veen 66', 0.05 xGButcher 11', 0.04 xGGoss 40', 0.04 xGSpittal 46', 0.04 xGSpittal 58', 0.04 xGCornelius 52', 0.02 xGObika 40', 0.37 xG, goalSpittal 46', 0.26 xG, goal36%0.48 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.48 xG, 1 goal50%0.66 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.66 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals14%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Kingsley 51', 0.27 xGShankland 32', 0.14 xGKingsley 45', 0.09 xGSibbick 56', 0.07 xGShankland 48', 0.06 xGAtkinson 66', 0.06 xGGrant 74', 0.06 xGDevlin 2', 0.04 xGKuol 90+6', 0.04 xGHumphrys 21', 0.03 xGDevlin 37', 0.03 xGHill 56', 0.03 xGCochrane 77', 0.03 xG36%0.34 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.34 xG, 0 goals18%0.17 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals7%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals35%0.33 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.33 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

MotherwellHearts

0.77 9 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.44 8 shots, 0 goals
0.56 4 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.50 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
40 min (42%) · Motherwell 0.57, Hearts 0.24 xG
Motherwell ahead
56 min (58%) · Motherwell 0.76, Hearts 0.70 xG

Line-ups

1166652222718247999KellyMcGinnButcherCaseyJohnstonGossCorneliusFurlongSpittalObikavan VeenYellow cardGoalGoal89'83'80'89'Motherwell 3-4-1-2Stuart Kettlewell2872211921477329189ClarkHillSibbickCochraneSmithDevlinSnodgrassKingsleyHumphrysMcKayShankland60'78'59'46'60'Hearts 3-4-2-1Robbie Neilson

Motherwell substitutes

  • 80' Slattery for Cornelius
  • 83' O'Donnell for Goss
  • 89' Mugabi for Butcher
  • 89' Danzaki for Spittal

Hearts substitutes

  • 46' Grant for Devlin
  • 59' Forrest for Smith
  • 60' Atkinson for Hill · yellow card 85'
  • 60' Kuol for Humphrys
  • 78' Oda for Cochrane

Players

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0111
McGinnCB900.000.0100.0425
ButcherCB890.040.0100.03212
CaseyCB900.000.0000.0339
JohnstonRWB900.140.0000.0347
GossCM8310.090.0110.0344
CorneliusCM800.020.010−0.0105
Furlong LWB900.000.1410.2292
SpittalAM8910.400.1610.0544
ObikaST9010.490.043−0.0302
van VeenST900.160.0920.0763
SlatteryMF100.000.0000.0003
O'DonnellDF70.000.0000.0001
MugabiDF10.000.0000.0001
DanzakiMF10.000.0000.0000

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0320
HillCB600.030.0010.0325
SibbickCB900.070.0200.14169
CochraneCB780.030.0420.0622
SmithRWB590.000.0210.0642
DevlinCM460.070.0500.0641
SnodgrassCM900.000.3420.1252
KingsleyLWB900.350.0410.1594
HumphrysAM600.030.0100.0112
McKayAM900.000.1110.16120
ShanklandST900.190.231−0.1100
GrantMF440.060.2500.2243
ForrestMF310.000.0300.0431
Atkinson DF300.060.0100.0311
KuolFW300.040.0000.0311
OdaFW120.000.000−0.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

Kelly and McGinn: 3 passesCasey and McGinn: 3 passesCornelius and van Veen: 3 passesvan Veen and Obika: 3 passesKelly and Butcher: 4 passesFurlong and van Veen: 4 passesButcher and McGinn: 5 passesGoss and Obika: 5 passesJohnston and Obika: 6 passesCornelius and Obika: 6 passesCasey and Furlong: 7 passesFurlong and Obika: 7 passesMcGinn and Johnston: 8 passesGoss and Spittal: 8 passesSpittal and van Veen: 8 passesCasey and Goss: 10 passesMcGinn and Goss: 10 passesMcGinn and Cornelius: 10 passesSpittal and Obika: 10 passesCasey and Butcher: 12 passesGoss and Furlong: 14 passesFurlong and Spittal: 15 passesKelly: 6 completed passesCasey: 20 completed passesButcher: 14 completed passesMcGinn: 25 completed passesJohnston: 11 completed passesGoss: 27 completed passesCornelius: 14 completed passesFurlong: 26 completed passesSpittal: 19 completed passesvan Veen: 12 completed passesObika: 19 completed passes1526616222718247999KellyCaseyButcherMcGinnJohnstonGossCorneliusFurlongSpittalvan VeenObikaStarters until 80' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Clark and Hill: 5 passesSibbick and Shankland: 5 passesKingsley and McKay: 5 passesDevlin and Shankland: 5 passesClark and Smith: 6 passesSibbick and Cochrane: 6 passesHill and Snodgrass: 6 passesKingsley and Devlin: 6 passesCochrane and McKay: 6 passesDevlin and McKay: 6 passesSnodgrass and Shankland: 6 passesSmith and Shankland: 8 passesCochrane and Snodgrass: 8 passesSnodgrass and McKay: 8 passesSmith and Devlin: 9 passesKingsley and Snodgrass: 10 passesSmith and Snodgrass: 10 passesSibbick and Kingsley: 11 passesHill and Smith: 12 passesSibbick and Devlin: 14 passesDevlin and Snodgrass: 14 passesSibbick and Snodgrass: 16 passesKingsley and Cochrane: 20 passesSibbick and Hill: 22 passesClark: 13 completed passesSibbick: 41 completed passesHill: 31 completed passesKingsley: 37 completed passesSmith: 27 completed passesCochrane: 25 completed passesDevlin: 28 completed passesSnodgrass: 39 completed passesHumphrys: 7 completed passesMcKay: 12 completed passesShankland: 14 completed passes2821723219147729189ClarkSibbickHillKingsleySmithCochraneDevlinSnodgrassHumphrysMcKayShanklandStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Motherwell

FromToPasses
FurlongSpittal9
GossFurlong8
CorneliusMcGinn7
CaseyButcher7
SpittalFurlong7

Hearts

FromToPasses
KingsleyCochrane18
HillSibbick15
SnodgrassSibbick15
CochraneKingsley14
SibbickKingsley13

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Motherwell

4−1.07+1.414+2.210+3.65−0.716+9.04−2.311+5.44−2.83−4.810+3.13−2.63−0.37+1.410+3.08+2.87+3.12−1.31−3.38+2.82−0.72+0.42+1.26+3.86+2.92+0.90−0.50−0.80−0.41−0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Hearts

4−0.713+6.612−1.13−4.03−1.210+2.69+2.26+0.18−0.76−1.34−1.58+3.11−2.24−0.74−1.32−1.81−2.23+0.45+2.11−3.02−1.01−0.91+0.22+0.94+2.01+0.50−0.40−0.50−0.30−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Motherwell

0.020.010.010.010.010.030.040.040.01−0.010.030.03−0.010.020.07−0.070.010.23LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.010.010.020.060.030.020.010.030.070.020.060.050.030.010.060.050.090.090.160.02−0.11−0.020.25LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.24AttackMotherwell1.00 → 1.02Hearts1.38 → 1.35Defence (lower is better)Motherwell1.41 → 1.38Hearts1.21 → 1.23

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
Top six<1%1%+1
11th17%12%−5
Bottom10%5%−5
Kilmarnock
11th27%30%+3
Bottom21%21%0
Dundee United
11th27%27%0
Bottom25%28%+3

From the forecast before the match (19 February 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

MotherwellHearts
Expected goals1.191.41
Win31%41%
Expected Points1.211.52
Clean sheet24%31%

Motherwell 31%Draw 27%Hearts 41%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hearts goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+8%7%3%1%8%9%4%1%5%7%5%2%2%3%2%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 19 February 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowMotherwell winDrawHearts win
Motherwell
Top six<1%1%<1%<1%
11th17%12%17%21%
Bottom10%5%9%14%
Kilmarnock
11th27%30%26%26%
Bottom21%21%22%19%
Dundee United
11th27%27%28%25%
Bottom25%28%24%24%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Motherwell

  1. W2–115 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.48–0.46
  2. L1–34 FebAberdeen (A)xG 0.85–1.94
  3. L0–21 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.31–1.00
  4. L0–128 JanSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.40–0.60
  5. D1–114 JanRoss County (H)xG 0.82–1.23
  6. L2–38 JanHibernian (H)xG 1.64–1.73

Hearts

  1. W3–14 FebDundee United (H)xG 1.01–1.22
  2. L0–31 FebRangers (H)xG 0.86–3.07
  3. D0–029 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.63–0.34
  4. W5–018 JanAberdeen (H)xG 3.54–1.02
  5. W1–013 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.68–1.41
  6. D1–17 JanSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.99–0.66

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellHearts
Position9th3rd
Played2525
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠5–⁠1412–⁠6–⁠7
Points23 (0.92 per game)42 (1.68 per game)
Expected Points per game1.211.40
Goals29–⁠3945–⁠35
xG per game1.18–⁠1.361.63–⁠1.61
Home: points, xG per game0.75, 1.18–⁠0.992.15, 2.03–⁠1.64
Away: points, xG per game1.08, 1.19–⁠1.701.17, 1.18–⁠1.59
ManagerStuart Kettlewell (1)Robbie Neilson (63)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.24AttackMotherwell1.00, 8thHearts1.38, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.41, 9thHearts1.21, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMotherwell attack: 1.00Hearts attack: 1.381.381.00HeartsMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMotherwell defence: 1.41Hearts defence: 1.211.411.21

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−18%+13%+19%+33%
Counter-attacks+20%+26%+53%−51%
Set pieces−7%−4%+3%+20%
Penalties+25%−37%+88%+4%
Headers−18%+19%−14%+40%
Left side−1%−4%−5%+23%
Centre−19%+25%+23%+34%
Right side−17%−2%+26%+18%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdHearts concededLeft side−1%+18%Centre−19%+34%Right side−17%+23%Open play−18%+33%Counter-attacks+20%−51%Set pieces−7%+20%Headers−18%+40%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdMotherwell concededLeft side−5%−2%Centre+23%+25%Right side+26%−4%Open play+19%+13%Counter-attacks+53%+26%Set pieces+3%−4%Headers−14%+19%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellHearts

1.18xG1.63
1.36xG against1.61
49%Possession55%
11.3Shots12.0
11.7Shots against14.2
3.2Shots on target4.3
1.5Big chances2.3
16.2Touches in the opposition box21.6
362Passes437
67%Pass accuracy76%
5.0Corners4.9
50%Field tilt48%
34.7Final-third entries34.1
8.3Box entries11.3
12.9Passes per defensive action14.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level381.271.69
Ahead181.050.97
Behind331.161.19

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level322.061.36
Ahead311.501.91
Behind271.251.57

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.252–5
16–300.150.265–6
31–450.220.234–5
46–600.210.218–6
61–750.280.194–11
76–900.230.226–6

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.270.195–8
16–300.210.158–3
31–450.340.308–1
46–600.210.306–8
61–750.200.296–6
76–900.410.3912–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTKelly 25McGinn 17O'Donnell 5Johnston 3Johansen 18McGinn 3Mugabi 3Lamie 22Casey 1Penney 16O'Donnell 5McGinn 1Slattery 12Cornelius 8Maguire 4Goss 18Tierney 1Morris 1Shields 10Spittal 4McKinstry 2Spittal 6Goss 5Slattery 5Spittal 10McKinstry 8Goss 2van Veen 20Shields 2Obika 14-2-3-1 in 11 of 25 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (11), 4-3-3 (8), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 16Clark 8Stewart 1Smith 13Sibbick 5Atkinson 3Sibbick 10Neilson 4Halkett 3Rowles 15Kingsley 10Cochrane 8Cochrane 10Halliday 8Snodgrass 4Devlin 14Halliday 6Kiomourtzoglou 5Snodgrass 12Grant 2Smith 1Ginnelly 9Forrest 4Hill 4Shankland 5Smith 3Boyce 3McKay 16Mackay-Steven 3Forrest 2Shankland 15Ginnelly 5Humphrys 34-2-3-1 in 7 of 25 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-4-3 (6), 3-4-2-1 (5), 4-1-4-1 (4), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
6 November 2022Hearts3–2MotherwellxG 2.61–2.25
18 September 2022Motherwell0–3HeartsxG 2.83–1.92
11 May 2022Motherwell2–1HeartsxG 1.42–1.31
29 January 2022Hearts2–0MotherwellxG 1.65–0.76
20 November 2021Motherwell2–0HeartsxG 2.16–0.30
2 October 2021Hearts2–0MotherwellxG 2.16–1.12

6 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 2, Hearts won 4, and 0 were drawn. Goals 6–11 and xG 1.76–1.66 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
van Veen232,0121110.510.08
McKinstry101,045410.160.16
Tierney4555200.200.10
Spittal231,734340.100.19

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland211,9721740.810.08
Grant5608110.340.17
Humphrys6601300.480.03
Ginnelly161,349520.190.19

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.