Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Hearts 2–0 Motherwell

Saturday 17 February 2024, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 26 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Chris Graham · Attendance 18,748

Hearts Shankland 67', Vargas 90+2'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsMotherwell
Goals20
xG1.710.46
Expected Points2.290.48

Hearts 69%Draw 23%Motherwell 8%

Most likely score 1–0, 19%. Final score 2–0, 17%.

Motherwell goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+11%5%1%11%2%9%2%10%5%1%4%2%1%19%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTAtkinson on for Lembikisa and Vargas on for Baningime, 46'Tait on for Fraser and Oda on for Cochrane, 59'Devlin on for Nieuwenhof, 77'O'Donnell on for Gent, 62'Nicholson on for Miller, 74'Obika on for Vale and Ferrie on for Zdravkovski, 79'Shankland 67'Vargas 90+2'Hearts 1.71Motherwell 0.4600.511.520153045607590HTAtkinson on for Lembikisa and Vargas on for Baningime, 46'Tait on for Fraser and Oda on for Cochrane, 59'Devlin on for Nieuwenhof, 77'O'Donnell on for Gent, 62'Nicholson on for Miller, 74'Obika on for Vale and Ferrie on for Zdravkovski, 79'Shankland 67'Vargas 90+2'1.710.46HeartsMotherwell

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsMotherwell

1.71 +0.49xG0.46 −0.78
2.00 +0.67xG on target0.31 −1.07
22 +9Shots10 −1
7 +2.6Shots on target3 −0.9
2 +0.7Big chances0 −2.0
38 +13Touches in the opposition box21 +2
72% +16Possession28% −17
689 +237Passes263 −82
88% +14Pass accuracy72% +6
78% +23Field tilt22% −23
80 +38Final-third entries19 −12
23 +10.0Box entries7 −2.5
11.1 −2Passes per defensive action26.4 +11
9 +2.2Corners7 +2.7
5 −10Tackles12 −4
5 −1.4Interceptions7 −1.0
22 0Clearances28 +5
3 +0.4Saves6 +3.7
9 −2Fouls14 +2
0 −0.9Offsides0 −1.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Forrest 81', 0.27 xGVargas 74', 0.17 xGShankland 58', 0.15 xGForrest 41', 0.10 xGOda 84', 0.10 xGOda 62', 0.09 xGShankland 45+2', 0.08 xGFraser 26', 0.07 xGAtkinson 90+2', 0.07 xGVargas 60', 0.06 xGShankland 58', 0.05 xGVargas 71', 0.05 xGCochrane 7', 0.04 xGKent 30', 0.04 xGOda 72', 0.04 xGKent 82', 0.04 xGNieuwenhof 33', 0.03 xGForrest 58', 0.03 xGForrest 51', 0.02 xGForrest 84', 0.02 xGVargas 90+2', 0.17 xG, goalShankland 67', 0.02 xG, goal13%0.23 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals59%1.01 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 1.01 xG, 2 goals15%0.25 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.25 xG, 0 goals13%0.22 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Motherwell

Miller 47', 0.13 xGPaton 18', 0.12 xGMiller 37', 0.05 xGMcGinn 81', 0.04 xGBair 52', 0.03 xGPaton 79', 0.03 xGGent 50', 0.02 xGFerrie 80', 0.02 xGCasey 12', 0.01 xGCasey 19', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals60%0.27 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.27 xG, 0 goals7%0.03 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals31%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals2%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsMotherwell

0.88 12 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.29 7 shots, 0 goals
0.27 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.56 9 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.16 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
69 min (73%) · Hearts 0.78, Motherwell 0.37 xG
Hearts ahead
26 min (27%) · Hearts 0.93, Motherwell 0.09 xG

Line-ups

28321581829619917ClarkKingsleyKentRowlesLembikisaNieuwenhofFraserBaningimeCochraneShanklandForrestGoalYellow card46'77'59'46'59'Hearts 3-5-2Steven Naismith1165152138173122814KellyMcGinnMugabiCaseyDevineMillerZdravkovskiGentPatonValeBairYellow card74'79'62'79'Motherwell 3-4-1-2Stuart Kettlewell

Hearts substitutes

  • 46' Atkinson for Lembikisa
  • 46' Vargas for Baningime · goal 90+2'
  • 59' Tait for Fraser
  • 59' Oda for Cochrane
  • 77' Devlin for Nieuwenhof

Motherwell substitutes

  • 62' O'Donnell for Gent
  • 74' Nicholson for Miller · yellow card 88'
  • 79' Obika for Vale
  • 79' Ferrie for Zdravkovski

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0211
KingsleyCB900.000.0820.21215
KentCB900.080.0200.121211
RowlesCB900.000.0400.24117
LembikisaRWB460.000.4020.4371
NieuwenhofCM770.030.2120.2070
FraserCM590.070.091−0.0130
BaningimeCM460.000.040−0.0430
CochraneLWB590.040.0400.0021
Shankland ST9010.300.134−0.1541
ForrestST9010.430.1210.0732
AtkinsonDF440.070.0520.1784
VargasMF4410.450.1220.0820
TaitMF310.000.0400.0321
OdaFW310.240.0100.1051
DevlinMF130.000.0100.0001

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0100.0651
McGinnCB900.040.0300.06311
MugabiCB900.000.0000.0127
CaseyCB900.020.0710.07211
DevineRWB900.000.020−0.0115
MillerCM740.180.0200.0655
Zdravkovski CM790.000.0300.0724
GentLWB620.020.0900.0123
PatonAM900.140.0440.0751
ValeST790.000.0400.0221
BairST900.030.5210.2052
O'DonnellDF280.000.0300.0631
Nicholson DF160.000.000−0.0111
ObikaFW110.000.000−0.0200
FerrieFW110.020.0000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Rowles and Shankland: 5 passesKent and Fraser: 5 passesBaningime and Fraser: 5 passesFraser and Shankland: 5 passesKent and Cochrane: 6 passesKent and Baningime: 6 passesBaningime and Shankland: 6 passesLembikisa and Shankland: 7 passesLembikisa and Nieuwenhof: 13 passesRowles and Kingsley: 14 passesKent and Lembikisa: 14 passesCochrane and Fraser: 14 passesRowles and Fraser: 16 passesKingsley and Nieuwenhof: 18 passesKingsley and Baningime: 19 passesRowles and Baningime: 24 passesRowles and Cochrane: 27 passesRowles and Kent: 42 passesKent and Kingsley: 45 passesKingsley and Lembikisa: 45 passesClark: 8 completed passesRowles: 67 completed passesKent: 65 completed passesKingsley: 82 completed passesLembikisa: 43 completed passesCochrane: 30 completed passesNieuwenhof: 22 completed passesBaningime: 42 completed passesFraser: 25 completed passesForrest: 12 completed passesShankland: 14 completed passes28152381198629179ClarkRowlesKentKingsleyLembikisaCochraneNieuwenhofBaningimeFraserForrestShanklandStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Motherwell

Casey and Paton: 3 passesMiller and Paton: 3 passesMiller and Bair: 3 passesPaton and Bair: 3 passesCasey and Mugabi: 4 passesCasey and McGinn: 4 passesCasey and Gent: 4 passesMcGinn and Vale: 4 passesDevine and Vale: 4 passesMiller and Gent: 4 passesKelly and McGinn: 5 passesMugabi and McGinn: 5 passesDevine and Miller: 5 passesGent and Paton: 5 passesVale and Bair: 5 passesMcGinn and Devine: 6 passesZdravkovski and Paton: 7 passesMiller and Vale: 7 passesCasey and Zdravkovski: 8 passesZdravkovski and Gent: 10 passesKelly: 8 completed passesCasey: 15 completed passesMugabi: 8 completed passesMcGinn: 17 completed passesDevine: 10 completed passesZdravkovski: 16 completed passesMiller: 15 completed passesGent: 12 completed passesPaton: 13 completed passesVale: 9 completed passesBair: 8 completed passes1155162117383122814KellyCaseyMugabiMcGinnDevineZdravkovskiMillerGentPatonValeBairStarters until 62' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
KentRowles30
RowlesKent26
KingsleyKent25
KingsleyLembikisa24
KentKingsley22

Motherwell

FromToPasses
MillerVale7
CaseyKelly6
CaseyMcGinn5
GentZdravkovski5
ZdravkovskiPaton5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

4−1.67−0.818+2.93−3.71−3.43−4.93−2.63−1.44−2.66+0.43−2.16+1.35−0.66−0.11−3.00−3.90−2.94+0.70−4.73+1.22+0.40−1.21−0.32−0.40−0.80−0.83+2.41+0.31+0.31−6.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Motherwell

7+2.49+1.924+8.210+2.45−0.85−1.98+1.25−2.19+1.87−0.46+0.46+0.82−1.94−1.315+7.51−4.42−2.01−2.01−2.23−1.60−2.01−0.90−1.10−1.50−2.80−1.01+0.60−0.81+0.50−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.020.020.020.030.030.010.040.100.050.080.040.100.020.040.060.080.210.17−0.05−0.030.07−0.03−0.100.050.030.40LessMore

Motherwell

0.010.010.020.010.010.020.010.020.020.010.020.010.040.040.080.03−0.01−0.010.080.050.05−0.020.15LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackHearts1.32 → 1.34Motherwell1.22 → 1.19Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.21 → 1.18Motherwell1.32 → 1.34

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
Top six13%7%−6
11th3%4%+1
Aberdeen
Top six39%41%+2
Dundee FC
Top six39%41%+2

From the forecast before the match (17 February 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsMotherwell
Expected goals1.591.06
Win49%25%
Expected Points1.741.00
Clean sheet35%20%

Hearts 49%Draw 26%Motherwell 25%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Motherwell goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%7%4%1%6%2%9%5%2%5%5%3%2%2%1%11%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 17 February 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawMotherwell win
Motherwell
Top six13%7%13%24%
11th3%4%2%1%
Aberdeen
Top six39%41%39%35%
Dundee FC
Top six39%41%37%37%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W1–07 FebSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.70–0.45
  2. W3–23 FebDundee FC (A)xG 1.76–1.69
  3. W2–027 JanAberdeen (H)xG 1.58–0.93
  4. W3–223 JanDundee FC (H)xG 2.21–0.69
  5. W2–12 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.94–1.66
  6. D2–230 DecRoss County (H)xG 1.87–1.54

Motherwell

  1. D3–314 FebAberdeen (A)xG 2.56–1.44
  2. W5–06 FebRoss County (H)xG 2.91–1.05
  3. D1–13 FebKilmarnock (H)xG 1.14–0.24
  4. D1–127 JanSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.87–0.82
  5. D2–22 JanHibernian (A)xG 1.55–0.72
  6. W3–130 DecLivingston (H)xG 1.48–0.94

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsMotherwell
Position3rd7th
Played2525
Won, drawn, lost15–⁠3–⁠75–⁠11–⁠9
Points48 (1.92 per game)26 (1.04 per game)
Expected Points per game1.341.27
Goals33–⁠2235–⁠39
xG per game1.22–⁠1.391.24–⁠1.42
Home: points, xG per game1.75, 1.36–⁠1.261.23, 1.35–⁠1.30
Away: points, xG per game2.08, 1.09–⁠1.520.83, 1.13–⁠1.54
ManagerSteven Naismith (21)Stuart Kettlewell (39)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackHearts1.32, 3rdMotherwell1.22, 4thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.21, 3rdMotherwell1.32, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebHearts attack: 1.32Motherwell attack: 1.221.321.22MotherwellHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebHearts defence: 1.21Motherwell defence: 1.321.321.21

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−11%−2%−7%+8%
Counter-attacks−10%−34%+31%−28%
Set pieces−13%+16%−27%+7%
Penalties+2%+22%+2%+2%
Headers−29%+6%−19%+31%
Left side−8%−11%−21%+27%
Centre−22%−5%+10%average
Right side+6%+26%−37%−10%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdMotherwell concededLeft side−8%−10%Centre−22%averageRight side+6%+27%Open play−11%+8%Counter-attacks−10%−28%Set pieces−13%+7%Headers−29%+31%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdHearts concededLeft side−21%+26%Centre+10%−5%Right side−37%−11%Open play−7%−2%Counter-attacks+31%−34%Set pieces−27%+16%Headers−19%+6%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsMotherwell

1.22xG1.24
1.39xG against1.42
56%Possession45%
13.2Shots10.7
13.4Shots against13.1
4.4Shots on target3.9
1.3Big chances2.0
25.4Touches in the opposition box19.0
452Passes345
75%Pass accuracy66%
6.8Corners4.3
54%Field tilt45%
42.2Final-third entries30.8
13.0Box entries9.5
12.9Passes per defensive action15.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.291.14
Ahead280.821.63
Behind181.691.67

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level460.981.35
Ahead141.421.74
Behind301.561.35

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.183–2
16–300.170.265–4
31–450.100.181–2
46–600.240.277–4
61–750.310.149–4
76–900.270.378–6

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.124–5
16–300.180.216–10
31–450.220.225–4
46–600.100.311–6
61–750.250.255–7
76–900.360.2914–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTClark 25Kingsley 12Sibbick 5Atkinson 5Kent 25Halkett 4Rowles 20Oda 7Forrest 5Atkinson 5Nieuwen… 17NieuwenhofDevlin 7Denholm 6Baningime 15Boyce 3Shankland 2Grant 8Lowry 7Haring 5Cochrane 13Forrest 4Vargas 3Shankland 23Kingsley 6Vargas 5Cochrane 53-5-2 in 12 of 25 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (12), 4-2-3-1 (11), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Motherwell

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWKelly 25McGinn 15O'Donnell 5Mugabi 21Butcher 7Casey 16Blaney 11O'Donnell 17Spencer 5McGinn 1Paton 14Slattery 9Wilkinson 2Spittal 10Zdravkovski 6Miller 5Spencer 10Gent 5Paton 2Slattery 8Gent 4Paton 3Bair 10Biereth 6Wilkinson 3Bair 8Spittal 8Biereth 43-4-3 in 6 of 25 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (6), 3-5-2 (5), 3-4-2-1 (5), 3-1-4-2 (3), 5-4-1 (2), 3-5-1-1 (2), 5-3-2 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
11 November 2023Motherwell1–2HeartsxG 1.10–2.08
3 September 2023Hearts0–1MotherwellxG 1.51–1.14
19 February 2023Motherwell2–0HeartsxG 1.33–0.94
6 November 2022Hearts3–2MotherwellxG 2.61–2.25
18 September 2022Motherwell0–3HeartsxG 2.83–1.92
11 May 2022Motherwell2–1HeartsxG 1.42–1.31

9 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 5, Motherwell won 4, and 0 were drawn. Goals 13–10 and xG 1.61–1.57 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland252,2501710.470.13
Boyce7631130.360.20
Lowry10733010.110.23
Grant8779130.170.16

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Biereth111,022650.360.22
Bair181,4811030.460.08
Spittal252,250580.170.24
Wilkinson7648310.160.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.