Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Ross County 0–3 Aberdeen

Tuesday 2 January 2024, 15:00 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 22 · Half-time 0–2 · Referee Matthew McDermid · Attendance 5,791

Ross County Baldwin sent off 90+1'

Aberdeen McGrath 24', 30', Miovski 80'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountyAberdeen
Goals03
xG0.141.72
Expected Points0.252.57

Ross County 2%Draw 18%Aberdeen 80%

Most likely score 0–1, 27%. Final score 0–3, 14%.

Aberdeen goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+14%14%5%1%2%4%4%2%27%25%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTBaldwin (Ross County), red card 90+1'Henderson on for Sims, 53'Samuel on for Murray, 66'Turner on for White and Harmon on for Sheaf, 79'Sokler on for Miovski, 88'Duncan on for Shinnie, 89'McGrath 24'McGrath 30'Miovski 80'Aberdeen 1.72Ross County 0.1400.511.520153045607590HTBaldwin (Ross County), red card 90+1'Henderson on for Sims, 53'Samuel on for Murray, 66'Turner on for White and Harmon on for Sheaf, 79'Sokler on for Miovski, 88'Duncan on for Shinnie, 89'McGrath 24'McGrath 30'Miovski 80'1.720.14Ross CountyAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountyAberdeen

0.14 −0.77xG1.72 +0.37
0.55 −0.29xG on target1.58 +0.34
5 −5Shots16 +4
3 −0.4Shots on target7 +3.3
0 −1.6Big chances1 −0.7
13 −4Touches in the opposition box33 +10
53% +9Possession47% −2
457 +132Passes404 +32
77% +13Pass accuracy75% +8
50% +6Field tilt50% +4
46 +17Final-third entries31 0
7 −2.2Box entries12 +1.6
9.8 −5Passes per defensive action16.3 +2
4 −0.9Corners5 +0.2
15 +1Tackles10 −7
7 −2.6Interceptions18 +10.3
19 −6Clearances16 −9
4 +0.2Saves3 −0.1
14 +2Fouls9 −2
2 +0.1Offsides3 +1.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

Leak 19', 0.05 xGMurray 40', 0.05 xGSims 32', 0.02 xGDhanda 14', 0.01 xGHenderson 73', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals36%0.05 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals36%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals29%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

Miovski 56', 0.14 xGMiovski 35', 0.11 xGMcGrath 56', 0.10 xGMcGrath 90+2', 0.10 xGMcGrath 90+2', 0.10 xGMiovski 34', 0.09 xGDevlin 47', 0.07 xGShinnie 61', 0.07 xGMcGrath 2', 0.06 xGMiovski 70', 0.05 xGBarron 76', 0.04 xGDuncan 90+6', 0.04 xGBarron 76', 0.01 xGMcGrath 30', 0.41 xG, goalMiovski 80', 0.20 xG, goalMcGrath 24', 0.14 xG, goal6%0.11 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.11 xG, 0 goals56%0.97 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.97 xG, 2 goals16%0.28 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.28 xG, 1 goal21%0.36 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.36 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountyAberdeen

0.08 3 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.05 8 shots, 2 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.25 2 shots, 1 goal
0.06 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.42 6 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
24 min (25%) · Ross County 0.06, Aberdeen 0.20 xG
Aberdeen ahead
72 min (75%) · Ross County 0.08, Aberdeen 1.52 xG

Line-ups

145423101214112615LaidlawBrownBaldwinLeakPurringtonDhandaSheafLoturiSimsWhiteMurrayYellow cardSent offYellow cardYellow cardYellow card79'53'79'66'Ross County 4-4-2Derek Adams242336384211079RoosDevlinRubezicGartenmannMacKenzieBarronShinniePolvaraClarksonMcGrathMiovskiYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoalGoal89'88'Aberdeen 4-2-3-1Barry Robson

Ross County substitutes

  • 53' Henderson for Sims · yellow card 85'
  • 66' Samuel for Murray
  • 79' Harmon for Sheaf
  • 79' Turner for White

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 88' Sokler for Miovski
  • 89' Duncan for Shinnie

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0000.0111
BrownRB900.000.1010.14125
Baldwin CB900.000.0100.09108
Leak CB900.050.0000.0426
Purrington LB900.000.0110.0689
Dhanda RM900.010.0400.0761
SheafCM790.000.0100.0454
LoturiCM900.000.0300.0672
SimsLM530.020.0210.0480
WhiteST790.000.0100.0016
MurrayST660.050.021−0.0123
Henderson FW370.010.0000.0331
SamuelFW240.000.0000.0000
HarmonMF110.000.0200.0431
TurnerMF110.000.0000.0101

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RoosGK900.000.0000.0461
Devlin RB900.070.1410.0964
RubezicCB900.000.0110.0677
GartenmannCB900.000.1110.2237
MacKenzieLB900.000.0200.0524
Barron DM9010.040.052−0.0355
ShinnieDM890.070.2810.0774
Polvara RW900.000.1100.0547
ClarksonAM9010.000.4720.1521
McGrathLW9020.910.0310.0443
MiovskiST88110.590.2510.1362
SoklerFW20.000.0200.0500
DuncanFW10.040.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Brown and Loturi: 5 passesBaldwin and Purrington: 5 passesBaldwin and Sheaf: 5 passesPurrington and Loturi: 5 passesPurrington and White: 5 passesSheaf and Sims: 5 passesLeak and Sheaf: 6 passesPurrington and Dhanda: 6 passesDhanda and Sheaf: 6 passesDhanda and Loturi: 6 passesSims and Murray: 6 passesLeak and Purrington: 7 passesLeak and Loturi: 7 passesDhanda and Murray: 7 passesLaidlaw and Baldwin: 8 passesBrown and Sheaf: 8 passesBaldwin and Sims: 8 passesPurrington and Sims: 8 passesSheaf and Loturi: 8 passesBaldwin and Dhanda: 10 passesBrown and Baldwin: 11 passesBrown and Dhanda: 11 passesBaldwin and Leak: 11 passesDhanda and Sims: 12 passesBaldwin and Loturi: 17 passesLaidlaw: 12 completed passesBrown: 23 completed passesBaldwin: 44 completed passesLeak: 23 completed passesPurrington: 26 completed passesDhanda: 27 completed passesSheaf: 21 completed passesLoturi: 31 completed passesSims: 20 completed passesMurray: 11 completed passesWhite: 9 completed passes145423101214111526LaidlawBrownBaldwinLeakPurringtonDhandaSheafLoturiSimsMurrayWhiteStarters until 53' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Aberdeen

Rubezic and Polvara: 6 passesMcGrath and Miovski: 6 passesDevlin and Rubezic: 7 passesDevlin and Barron: 7 passesMacKenzie and Clarkson: 7 passesShinnie and Polvara: 7 passesBarron and Clarkson: 7 passesPolvara and Miovski: 7 passesGartenmann and Shinnie: 8 passesRubezic and Shinnie: 8 passesMacKenzie and Barron: 8 passesMacKenzie and McGrath: 8 passesShinnie and McGrath: 8 passesRoos and Devlin: 9 passesShinnie and Miovski: 9 passesBarron and Polvara: 9 passesRubezic and Barron: 10 passesRoos and Gartenmann: 11 passesGartenmann and MacKenzie: 11 passesMacKenzie and Shinnie: 12 passesClarkson and McGrath: 12 passesDevlin and Polvara: 13 passesGartenmann and Barron: 13 passesRoos and Rubezic: 15 passesShinnie and Barron: 15 passesRoos: 24 completed passesDevlin: 34 completed passesGartenmann: 34 completed passesRubezic: 26 completed passesMacKenzie: 25 completed passesShinnie: 41 completed passesBarron: 44 completed passesPolvara: 26 completed passesClarkson: 18 completed passesMcGrath: 21 completed passesMiovski: 16 completed passes242633348211079RoosDevlinGartenmannRubezicMacKenzieShinnieBarronPolvaraClarksonMcGrathMiovskiStarters until 88' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
BaldwinLoturi11
LeakBaldwin10
BrownDhanda9
LeakPurrington9
LeakLoturi9

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
DevlinPolvara10
RubezicRoos10
ShinnieBarron8
GartenmannRoos8
BarronRubezic7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

2−2.63−4.922+8.97−3.45−0.34−4.29+2.64−1.76−1.610+5.27+2.06+2.66+1.55−1.13−2.21−3.24+1.66+1.814+9.10−2.80−1.80−0.73+1.34+1.60−1.42+1.50−1.02+1.62+1.32−8.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Aberdeen

8+3.010+1.97−0.46+1.56−2.370.06−0.115+5.510+1.77+0.85−1.57+3.38+2.74−1.91−3.66+3.12−0.13−1.34−0.80−2.52+0.41+0.30−1.51−1.54+2.83+2.70−0.40−0.20−0.56−10.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.010.010.010.030.010.010.030.050.030.040.040.030.030.030.050.02−0.010.010.02−0.01−0.02−0.010.020.070.08LessMore

Aberdeen

0.010.010.050.010.030.040.020.010.050.010.030.020.060.030.020.030.050.060.01−0.010.020.07−0.06−0.020.070.31LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.27AttackRoss County0.99 → 0.96Aberdeen1.17 → 1.22Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.48 → 1.51Aberdeen1.37 → 1.32

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
Top six6%3%−3
11th22%26%+4
Bottom14%20%+6
Aberdeen
Top six39%52%+13
11th5%2%−3
Bottom2%1%−1
St. Mirren
Top six61%58%−3
Livingston
11th21%22%+1
Bottom58%55%−3

From the forecast before the match (2 January 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountyAberdeen
Expected goals1.281.23
Win37%35%
Expected Points1.391.33
Clean sheet29%28%

Ross County 37%Draw 28%Aberdeen 35%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Aberdeen goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+9%9%6%3%8%3%1%7%8%5%2%3%3%2%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 January 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawAberdeen win
Ross County
Top six6%9%4%3%
11th22%17%23%26%
Bottom14%9%15%20%
Aberdeen
Top six39%29%38%52%
11th5%7%4%2%
Bottom2%3%2%1%
St. Mirren
Top six61%64%61%58%
Livingston
11th21%21%21%22%
Bottom58%60%58%55%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. D2–230 DecHearts (A)xG 1.54–1.87
  2. L0–116 DecDundee FC (H)xG 0.90–2.43
  3. L0–29 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.62–0.94
  4. W3–05 DecMotherwell (H)xG 1.43–1.18
  5. W1–028 NovSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.66–0.24
  6. D0–025 NovKilmarnock (H)xG 0.88–0.65

Aberdeen

  1. L0–330 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.03–2.73
  2. W2–120 DecLivingston (H)xG 1.00–1.53
  3. W2–19 DecHearts (H)xG 1.74–0.33
  4. L0–16 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 1.14–0.64
  5. L0–23 DecHibernian (A)xG 3.86–1.73
  6. D1–126 NovRangers (H)xG 0.60–2.64

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountyAberdeen
Position11th9th
Played1817
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠6–⁠85–⁠4–⁠8
Points18 (1.00 per game)19 (1.12 per game)
Expected Points per game1.001.18
Goals17–⁠2619–⁠29
xG per game0.91–⁠1.541.35–⁠1.73
Home: points, xG per game1.22, 0.94–⁠1.281.22, 1.40–⁠1.47
Away: points, xG per game0.78, 0.87–⁠1.801.00, 1.29–⁠2.02
ManagerDerek Adams (6)Barry Robson (32)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.27AttackRoss County0.99, 10thAberdeen1.17, 4thDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.48, 12thAberdeen1.37, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecRoss County attack: 0.99Aberdeen attack: 1.171.170.99AberdeenRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecRoss County defence: 1.48Aberdeen defence: 1.371.481.37

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountyAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−17%+17%−10%+21%
Counter-attacks−58%+50%+81%−1%
Set pieces−36%+6%+17%+37%
Penalties−100%−5%−33%+68%
Headers−22%−11%average+59%
Left side−15%+6%−10%+21%
Centre−36%+26%+22%+38%
Right side−13%+9%−18%−2%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdAberdeen concededLeft side−15%−2%Centre−36%+38%Right side−13%+21%Open play−17%+21%Counter-attacks−58%−1%Set pieces−36%+37%Headers−22%+59%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdRoss County concededLeft side−10%+9%Centre+22%+26%Right side−18%+6%Open play−10%+17%Counter-attacks+81%+50%Set pieces+17%+6%Headersaverage−11%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountyAberdeen

0.91xG1.35
1.54xG against1.73
44%Possession48%
10.2Shots11.6
15.2Shots against13.2
3.4Shots on target3.7
1.6Big chances1.7
16.8Touches in the opposition box23.2
325Passes372
64%Pass accuracy67%
4.9Corners4.8
44%Field tilt46%
28.9Final-third entries31.1
9.2Box entries10.4
15.1Passes per defensive action14.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level560.911.13
Ahead141.451.98
Behind210.542.36

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level420.981.31
Ahead181.902.16
Behind301.542.07

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.111–0
16–300.170.251–5
31–450.080.331–4
46–600.190.206–5
61–750.110.294–5
76–900.190.364–7

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.241–4
16–300.180.373–5
31–450.310.165–1
46–600.180.213–1
61–750.230.234–5
76–900.340.513–13

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLaidlaw 18Nightingale 10Dhanda 2Smith 2Baldwin 18Leak 17Harmon 1Brown 17Randall 1Randall 15Turner 4Sheaf 1Allardice 10Loturi 4Dhanda 2Purrington 10Harmon 4Reid 3Dhanda 11Sims 3Loturi 2White 15Brophy 2Murray 17Dhanda 1Sims 13-4-1-2 in 10 of 18 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (10), 4-4-2 (4), 4-3-1-2 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTRoos 17Gartenmann 13Devlin 3Rubezic 14MacDonald 4Jensen 14MacKenzie 3Devlin 14Morris 2Milne 1Clarkson 10Barron 4McGrath 2Shinnie 17McGarry 6Hayes 5MacKenzie 4McGrath 7Polvara 6Clarkson 3Miovski 16Sokler 3Duk 11McGrath 3Hayes 13-4-1-2 in 9 of 17 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (9), 3-5-2 (3), 5-4-1 (3), 5-3-2 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
24 September 2023Aberdeen4–0Ross CountyxG 3.33–0.85
14 April 2023Ross County0–1AberdeenxG 0.94–0.65
2 January 2023Aberdeen0–0Ross CountyxG 2.08–0.44
3 September 2022Ross County1–1AberdeenxG 1.36–0.83
9 April 2022Aberdeen0–1Ross CountyxG 1.06–0.92
1 February 2022Ross County1–1AberdeenxG 0.32–0.74

10 league meetings since 2020/21: Ross County won 2, Aberdeen won 4, and 4 were drawn. Goals 8–14 and xG 0.82–1.84 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murray171,326410.260.07
Sims5480000.260.06
Loturi8681100.200.05
White151,183300.210.04

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miovski171,438810.450.11
McGrath12992410.310.16
Duk11982240.290.15
Clarkson131,263110.070.26

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.