Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Hearts 1–1 Ross County

Saturday 28 September 2024, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 6 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Iain Snedden · Attendance 18,399

Hearts Shankland 90+6'

Ross County Hale 35'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsRoss County
Goals11
xG1.940.84
Expected Points2.140.64

Hearts 64%Draw 23%Ross County 14%

Most likely score 2–0, 12%. Final score 1–1, 12%.

Ross County goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+5%4%2%4%1%5%1%8%7%3%3%3%1%1%11%12%12%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTSpittal on for Devlin and McKay on for Vargas, 58'Dhanda on for Forrest, 67'Boyce on for Grant and Oyegoke on for Forrester, 90+2'Loturi on for Chilvers, 58'Brown on for Efete and Samuel on for Hale, 68'Telfer on for Randall and Grieves on for White, 88'Shankland 90+6'Hale 35'Hearts 1.94Ross County 0.8401230153045607590HTSpittal on for Devlin and McKay on for Vargas, 58'Dhanda on for Forrest, 67'Boyce on for Grant and Oyegoke on for Forrester, 90+2'Loturi on for Chilvers, 58'Brown on for Efete and Samuel on for Hale, 68'Telfer on for Randall and Grieves on for White, 88'Shankland 90+6'Hale 35'1.940.84HeartsRoss County

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsRoss County

1.94 +1.09xG0.84 −0.25
2.34 +1.74xG on target1.19 +0.13
21 +9Shots13 +2
8 +5.3Shots on target2 −2.2
6 +5.2Big chances1 −0.5
48 +21Touches in the opposition box23 +9
70% +16Possession30% −12
577 +150Passes261 −54
84% +9Pass accuracy66% +2
76% +24Field tilt24% −16
68 +29Final-third entries36 +3
23 +10.8Box entries9 +2.2
8.9 −2Passes per defensive action18.0 +3
11 +4.7Corners5 +2.5
18 −5Tackles20 +1
6 −3.2Interceptions18 +8.0
12 −9Clearances50 +23
1 −1.7Saves6 +4.0
8 −5Fouls8 −4
2 +0.2Offsides3 +1.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Devlin 3', 0.39 xGShankland 90+6', 0.30 xGShankland 43', 0.12 xGShankland 59', 0.10 xGGrant 86', 0.10 xGBaningime 53', 0.09 xGKingsley 77', 0.08 xGShankland 23', 0.07 xGDevlin 32', 0.06 xGMcKay 63', 0.06 xGVargas 3', 0.05 xGDevlin 6', 0.05 xGForrest 13', 0.05 xGMcKay 65', 0.05 xGForrest 63', 0.04 xGKingsley 64', 0.04 xGBaningime 85', 0.04 xGVargas 3', 0.03 xGForrester 55', 0.02 xGDhanda 73', 0.02 xGShankland 90+6', 0.20 xG, goal36%0.70 xGSix-yard box: 4 shots, 0.70 xG, 1 goal44%0.84 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.84 xG, 0 goals8%0.16 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals11%0.21 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.21 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Ross County

Wright 79', 0.20 xGWhite 5', 0.12 xGHale 40', 0.12 xGEfete 5', 0.07 xGEfete 33', 0.05 xGChilvers 5', 0.04 xGNisbet 7', 0.04 xGChilvers 4', 0.03 xGHale 26', 0.03 xGChilvers 50', 0.03 xGHale 25', 0.02 xGHale 32', 0.01 xGHale 35', 0.07 xG, goal38%0.32 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.32 xG, 0 goals39%0.33 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.33 xG, 0 goals14%0.12 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals8%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsRoss County

1.50 15 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.10 4 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.19 2 shots, 1 goal
0.45 6 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.55 7 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
36 min (37%) · Hearts 0.70, Ross County 0.49 xG
Ross County ahead
61 min (63%) · Hearts 1.25, Ross County 0.35 xG

Line-ups

1352153146777179GordonForresterKentRowlesKingsleyDevlinBaningimeVargasGrantForrestShanklandYellow cardGoal90+2'58'58'90+2'67'Hearts 4-2-3-1Lee Wallace12043248231926109LaidlawLopataWrightLeakEfeteRandallNisbetCampbellWhiteChilversHaleYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card68'88'88'58'68'Ross County 3-4-3Don Cowie

Hearts substitutes

  • 58' Spittal for Devlin
  • 58' McKay for Vargas
  • 67' Dhanda for Forrest · 1 assist
  • 90+2' Oyegoke for Forrester
  • 90+2' Boyce for Grant

Ross County substitutes

  • 58' Loturi for Chilvers
  • 68' Brown for Efete
  • 68' Samuel for Hale
  • 88' Telfer for Randall
  • 88' Grieves for White

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0220
ForresterRB900.020.0920.2577
KentCB900.000.2110.0754
RowlesCB900.000.5300.3667
KingsleyLB900.120.2510.2791
DevlinDM580.500.1410.0002
BaningimeDM900.120.030−0.0147
Vargas RW580.090.010−0.0222
GrantAM900.100.1820.1546
ForrestLW670.080.3430.2081
ShanklandST9010.780.0920.0212
SpittalMF320.000.1010.1262
McKayFW320.110.1210.1692
DhandaMF2310.020.2610.1120
OyegokeMF00.000.0000.0100
BoyceFW00.000.0010.0000

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0210.11100
LopataCB900.000.0010.03412
WrightCB900.200.0000.01116
Leak CB900.000.3910.04516
EfeteRWB680.120.0200.0325
Randall CM880.000.0110.0668
NisbetCM900.040.0510.0719
Campbell LWB900.000.1220.03410
WhiteRW880.120.032−0.0125
ChilversST580.100.0400.0444
Hale LW6810.260.0000.0920
LoturiMF320.000.0000.0121
BrownDF220.000.2200.2245
SamuelFW220.000.0000.0112
TelferMF20.000.0000.0000
GrievesMF20.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Gordon and Forrester: 5 passesRowles and Grant: 5 passesKent and Forrest: 5 passesKingsley and Shankland: 5 passesForrester and Devlin: 6 passesRowles and Baningime: 6 passesKent and Baningime: 6 passesBaningime and Grant: 6 passesVargas and Grant: 6 passesForrester and Vargas: 7 passesForrester and Shankland: 7 passesKingsley and Baningime: 7 passesForrester and Rowles: 8 passesKent and Devlin: 8 passesForrester and Grant: 9 passesKent and Grant: 9 passesRowles and Devlin: 10 passesRowles and Forrest: 10 passesDevlin and Forrest: 10 passesKingsley and Devlin: 11 passesForrester and Kent: 12 passesKingsley and Forrest: 17 passesRowles and Kent: 28 passesRowles and Kingsley: 29 passesGordon: 15 completed passesForrester: 26 completed passesRowles: 54 completed passesKent: 43 completed passesKingsley: 41 completed passesDevlin: 30 completed passesBaningime: 21 completed passesVargas: 9 completed passesGrant: 22 completed passesForrest: 23 completed passesShankland: 9 completed passes1351523146777179GordonForresterRowlesKentKingsleyDevlinBaningimeVargasGrantForrestShanklandStarters until 58' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Ross County

Laidlaw and Wright: 3 passesLopata and Nisbet: 3 passesWright and Chilvers: 3 passesEfete and Hale: 3 passesRandall and Chilvers: 3 passesHale and White: 3 passesLaidlaw and Leak: 4 passesLopata and Leak: 4 passesLeak and Randall: 4 passesLeak and Chilvers: 4 passesLeak and Hale: 4 passesRandall and Campbell: 4 passesRandall and Hale: 4 passesRandall and White: 4 passesChilvers and Hale: 4 passesLopata and Wright: 5 passesLeak and White: 5 passesEfete and Nisbet: 5 passesCampbell and Chilvers: 5 passesCampbell and Hale: 5 passesNisbet and Chilvers: 6 passesChilvers and White: 6 passesLaidlaw and White: 11 passesLaidlaw: 16 completed passesLopata: 8 completed passesWright: 11 completed passesLeak: 17 completed passesEfete: 8 completed passesNisbet: 12 completed passesRandall: 16 completed passesCampbell: 12 completed passesChilvers: 16 completed passesHale: 9 completed passesWhite: 13 completed passes12043242381910926LaidlawLopataWrightLeakEfeteNisbetRandallCampbellChilversHaleWhiteStarters until 58' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
RowlesKingsley28
KentRowles23
RowlesKent17
KingsleyForrest14
KingsleyRowles14

Ross County

FromToPasses
LaidlawWhite16
WhiteChilvers6
LeakWhite5
CampbellHale5
RandallLeak4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

3−2.06−0.212−1.56−1.710+4.34−3.39+3.25−1.72−4.85−2.24−0.20−3.27+2.28+2.82−3.02−0.84+0.82−1.22−2.21−1.81−1.20−0.50−1.31−0.20−0.70−0.53+2.01+0.73+2.02−6.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Ross County

10+4.817+12.236+19.713+5.33−3.28+0.313+7.05−0.73−4.04−3.36−0.72−2.71−2.26+3.213+7.31−2.86+2.72−0.53−0.23+0.30−3.21−1.20−1.30−1.21−1.51+0.30−0.50−0.700.010.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.010.010.020.010.030.040.020.020.040.060.050.030.040.060.060.140.130.020.060.090.18−0.03−0.10−0.030.160.270.30LessMore

Ross County

0.040.050.010.010.040.010.040.010.040.060.040.040.010.02−0.010.040.01−0.01−0.010.28LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackHearts1.29 → 1.30Ross County1.06 → 1.06Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.33 → 1.32Ross County1.52 → 1.53

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six33%29%−4
11th9%10%+1
Bottom7%7%0
Ross County
Top six18%20%+2
11th16%16%0
Bottom15%14%−1

From the forecast before the match (28 September 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsRoss County
Expected goals1.690.97
Win54%21%
Expected Points1.860.88
Clean sheet38%18%

Hearts 54%Draw 25%Ross County 21%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 51%.

Ross County goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%6%3%1%6%2%5%2%6%5%3%2%2%1%11%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 28 September 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawRoss County win
Hearts
Top six33%39%29%22%
11th9%7%10%13%
Bottom7%4%7%11%
Ross County
Top six18%13%20%29%
11th16%19%16%11%
Bottom15%19%14%8%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. L1–221 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.39–1.17
  2. L0–214 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.65–2.88
  3. L0–11 SepDundee United (H)xG 0.63–1.26
  4. L1–325 AugMotherwell (A)xG 0.62–2.54
  5. L1–310 AugDundee FC (A)xG 1.52–1.53
  6. D0–03 AugRangers (H)xG 1.32–0.75

Ross County

  1. D3–321 SepSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.28–0.55
  2. W2–014 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.43–0.66
  3. L0–131 AugAberdeen (H)xG 1.05–0.35
  4. L0–624 AugRangers (A)xG 0.24–3.76
  5. D1–110 AugDundee United (H)xG 2.23–1.34
  6. D0–03 AugMotherwell (A)xG 0.31–1.20

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsRoss County
Position12th8th
Played66
Won, drawn, lost0–⁠1–⁠51–⁠3–⁠2
Points1 (0.17 per game)6 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game0.831.47
Goals3–⁠116–⁠11
xG per game0.85–⁠1.691.09–⁠1.31
Home: points, xG per game0.50, 0.98–⁠1.001.25, 1.50–⁠0.73
Away: points, xG per game0.00, 0.80–⁠2.030.50, 0.28–⁠2.48
ManagerLee Wallace (0)Don Cowie (21)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackHearts1.29, 4thRoss County1.06, 10thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.33, 4thRoss County1.52, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepHearts attack: 1.29Ross County attack: 1.061.291.06Ross CountyHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepHearts defence: 1.33Ross County defence: 1.521.521.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsRoss County
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−43%+10%−43%+2%
Counter-attacks−55%+29%−51%+76%
Set pieces+20%+37%−34%−2%
Penalties−100%+137%+256%−100%
Headers+11%+90%−17%−8%
Left side−30%+42%−32%−14%
Centre−25%+8%−45%+31%
Right side−34%+17%−46%−12%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdRoss County concededLeft side−30%−12%Centre−25%+31%Right side−34%−14%Open play−43%+2%Counter-attacks−55%+76%Set pieces+20%−2%Headers+11%−8%

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdHearts concededLeft side−32%+17%Centre−45%+8%Right side−46%+42%Open play−43%+10%Counter-attacks−51%+29%Set pieces−34%+37%Headers−17%+90%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsRoss County

0.85xG1.09
1.69xG against1.31
54%Possession42%
12.0Shots10.5
12.5Shots against11.0
2.7Shots on target4.2
0.8Big chances1.5
26.7Touches in the opposition box13.7
427Passes316
75%Pass accuracy65%
6.3Corners2.5
52%Field tilt40%
38.6Final-third entries33.0
12.2Box entries6.8
11.2Passes per defensive action14.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level480.692.12
Ahead0––
Behind421.051.18

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level481.070.93
Ahead181.160.73
Behind241.092.50

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.330–1
16–300.120.301–2
31–450.040.450–3
46–600.080.410–2
61–750.150.072–0
76–900.330.130–3

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.141–0
16–300.170.351–1
31–450.320.151–2
46–600.040.200–3
61–750.190.250–2
76–900.270.233–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 4Clark 2Taylor 4Kingsley 2Halkett 3Kent 3Rowles 4Kingsley 2Penrice 3Grant 1Spittal 1Boateng 3Devlin 2Penrice 1Grant 3Spittal 1Taylor 1Vargas 1Kent 1Shankland 1Boateng 1Baningime 1Vargas 2Penrice 1Spittal 1Shankland 5Vargas 14-2-3-1 in 2 of 6 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Ross County

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTLaidlaw 6Wright 6Efete 2Lopata 3Leak 3Nightingale 3Campbell 1Brown 4Denholm 1Grieves 1Nisbet 3Loturi 2Denholm 1Randall 6Harmon 2Chilvers 2Grieves 1Allardice 1Harmon 3Campbell 1Denholm 1White 4Brophy 2Hale 63-5-2 in 3 of 6 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
16 March 2024Ross County2–1HeartsxG 1.74–1.27
30 December 2023Hearts2–2Ross CountyxG 1.87–1.54
30 September 2023Ross County0–1HeartsxG 0.40–0.98
22 April 2023Hearts6–1Ross CountyxG 3.68–1.59
30 October 2022Ross County1–2HeartsxG 1.44–0.65
30 July 2022Hearts2–1Ross CountyxG 1.78–1.54

10 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 5, Ross County won 1, and 4 were drawn. Goals 19–11 and xG 1.64–1.36 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland6531010.220.11

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Hale6502200.400.01
Wright6540200.060.01
Randall6521000.030.02
Laidlaw6540000.000.01

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.