Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Hearts 6–1 Ross County

Saturday 22 April 2023, 12:30 · Tynecastle Park · Round 33 · Half-time 4–0 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 18,316

Hearts Cochrane 17', Ginnelly 22', 56', Shankland 28', 45+7' (pen), 59'

Ross County Edwards 85' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsRoss County
Goals61
xG3.681.59
Non-penalty xG2.900.80
Expected Points2.550.31

Hearts 81%Draw 13%Ross County 6%

Most likely score 3–2, 11%. Final score 6–1, 5%.

Ross County goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+3%3%1%6%2%2%2%2%2%1%6%7%1%5%6%1%8%9%11%9%10%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTHill on for Atkinson, 58'Humphrys on for Ginnelly and Kiomourtzoglou on for Devlin, 67'Halliday on for Haring, 75'Grant on for Shankland, 76'Stones on for Murray and Baldwin on for Cancola, 46'Watson on for Sims and Tillson on for Kenneh, 67'Edwards on for Smith, 72'Cochrane 17'Ginnelly 22'Shankland 28'Shankland 45+7' (pen)Ginnelly 56'Shankland 59'Edwards 85' (pen)Hearts 3.68Ross County 1.59012340153045607590HTHill on for Atkinson, 58'Humphrys on for Ginnelly and Kiomourtzoglou on for Devlin, 67'Halliday on for Haring, 75'Grant on for Shankland, 76'Stones on for Murray and Baldwin on for Cancola, 46'Watson on for Sims and Tillson on for Kenneh, 67'Edwards on for Smith, 72'Cochrane 17'Ginnelly 22'Shankland 28'Shankland 45+7' (pen)Ginnelly 56'Shankland 59'Edwards 85' (pen)3.681.59HeartsRoss County

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsRoss County

3.68 +2.22xG1.59 +0.72
2.90Non-penalty xG0.80
3.70 +2.47xG on target0.99 +0.23
30 +18.2Shots7 −2.3
12 +7.9Shots on target1 −1.8
4 +2.1Big chances2 +1.0
41 +19Touches in the opposition box17 −1
64% +8Possession36% −8
485 +42Passes272 −42
74% −2Pass accuracy57% −5
73% +25Field tilt27% −11
42 +8Final-third entries21 −8
23 +11.6Box entries9 +1.5
12.1 −2Passes per defensive action18.5 +3
8 +2.8Corners5 +1.3
8 −8Tackles21 +5
4 −3.8Interceptions8 −1.5
17 −2Clearances18 −6
0 −3.2Saves6 +2.7
7 −3Fouls10 −2
0 −1.2Offsides1 −1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Atkinson 43', 0.37 xGShankland 67', 0.28 xGRowles 66', 0.25 xGOda 11', 0.22 xGOda 59', 0.16 xGShankland 44', 0.12 xGDevlin 62', 0.11 xGGinnelly 61', 0.09 xGMcKay 44', 0.08 xGHalliday 90+3', 0.08 xGMcKay 14', 0.07 xGGinnelly 16', 0.07 xGDevlin 34', 0.07 xGMcKay 70', 0.07 xGOda 78', 0.07 xGGinnelly 62', 0.06 xGCochrane 2', 0.03 xGGinnelly 30', 0.03 xGHaring 36', 0.03 xGShankland 41', 0.03 xGHumphrys 90', 0.03 xGSibbick 70', 0.02 xGHumphrys 81', 0.02 xGShankland 30', 0.01 xGGinnelly 22', 0.16 xG, goalShankland 59', 0.16 xG, goalShankland 28', 0.14 xG, goalCochrane 17', 0.05 xG, goalGinnelly 57', 0.03 xG, goal21%0.62 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.62 xG, 0 goals48%1.40 xGCentral box: 12 shots, 1.40 xG, 3 goals20%0.57 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.57 xG, 0 goals10%0.29 xGEdge of the box: 9 shots, 0.29 xG, 2 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Ross County

White 53', 0.58 xGBaldwin 53', 0.10 xGIacovitti 83', 0.05 xGIacovitti 13', 0.02 xGIacovitti 74', 0.02 xGEdwards 77', 0.02 xG85%0.68 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.68 xG, 0 goals6%0.05 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals6%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsRoss County

2.40 26 shots, 4 goalsOpen play0.07 3 shots, 0 goals
0.25 2 shots, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.25 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.73 3 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
17 min (17%) · Hearts 0.43, Ross County 0.02 xG
Hearts ahead
85 min (83%) · Hearts 3.25, Ross County 1.56 xG

Line-ups

28122115191458891830ClarkAtkinsonSibbickRowlesCochraneDevlinHaringOdaShanklandMcKayGinnellyGoalGoalGoalGoalGoalGoal58'67'75'76'67'Hearts 4-2-3-1Steven Naismith123061714442162611LaidlawRandallSmithIacovittiMurrayLoturiCancolaKennehHarmonWhiteSimsYellow card72'46'46'67'67'Ross County 3-5-2Malky Mackay

Hearts substitutes

  • 58' Hill for Atkinson
  • 67' Kiomourtzoglou for Devlin · yellow card 90+5'
  • 67' Humphrys for Ginnelly
  • 75' Halliday for Haring
  • 76' Grant for Shankland

Ross County substitutes

  • 46' Baldwin for Cancola
  • 46' Stones for Murray · yellow card 55'
  • 67' Watson for Sims
  • 67' Tillson for Kenneh · yellow card 90+5'
  • 72' Edwards for Smith · goal 85' (pen)

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0000
AtkinsonRB580.370.0410.0321
SibbickCB900.020.0330.14132
RowlesCB900.250.0010.0425
CochraneLB90120.080.4340.4947
DevlinDM6710.180.2310.0343
HaringDM750.030.021−0.0813
OdaRW900.450.1830.2462
ShanklandAM7631.520.9150.1861
McKayLW900.220.3750.34172
GinnellyST67210.430.0610.1330
HillDF320.000.0110.0222
Kiomourtzoglou MF230.000.0210.0212
HumphrysFW230.050.0100.0010
HallidayMF150.080.000−0.0101
GrantMF140.000.0300.0410

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0000.0220
Randall CB900.000.0100.0133
SmithCB720.000.0000.0124
IacovittiCB900.100.3810.1749
MurrayRWB460.000.0000.0012
LoturiCM900.000.1400.0017
CancolaCM460.000.0100.0540
KennehCM670.000.0000.0005
HarmonLWB900.000.0610.0446
WhiteST900.580.0100.0003
SimsST670.000.0100.0324
BaldwinDF440.100.0720.0855
Stones FW440.000.000−0.0113
WatsonDF230.000.0600.1340
Tillson MF230.000.0100.0014
EdwardsFW1810.810.021−0.0210

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Cochrane and Ginnelly: 4 passesAtkinson and Haring: 5 passesRowles and Sibbick: 5 passesSibbick and Shankland: 5 passesDevlin and Shankland: 5 passesOda and Shankland: 5 passesShankland and McKay: 5 passesClark and Sibbick: 6 passesDevlin and Haring: 6 passesShankland and Ginnelly: 6 passesAtkinson and Sibbick: 7 passesSibbick and Devlin: 7 passesMcKay and Ginnelly: 7 passesAtkinson and Devlin: 9 passesRowles and McKay: 9 passesCochrane and Haring: 10 passesCochrane and Shankland: 11 passesCochrane and McKay: 11 passesAtkinson and Oda: 12 passesSibbick and Haring: 12 passesRowles and Cochrane: 14 passesAtkinson and Shankland: 20 passesClark: 9 completed passesAtkinson: 36 completed passesRowles: 22 completed passesSibbick: 26 completed passesCochrane: 33 completed passesDevlin: 23 completed passesHaring: 22 completed passesOda: 14 completed passesShankland: 23 completed passesMcKay: 20 completed passesGinnelly: 8 completed passes28121521191458891830ClarkAtkinsonRowlesSibbickCochraneDevlinHaringOdaShanklandMcKayGinnellyStarters until 58' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Ross County

Randall and Smith: 3 passesRandall and Kenneh: 3 passesSmith and Loturi: 3 passesMurray and Sims: 3 passesHarmon and Loturi: 3 passesLaidlaw and Smith: 4 passesHarmon and Sims: 4 passesCancola and Sims: 4 passesCancola and White: 4 passesCancola and Loturi: 6 passesLaidlaw: 6 completed passesRandall: 7 completed passesIacovitti: 6 completed passesSmith: 8 completed passesMurray: 1 completed passesHarmon: 4 completed passesCancola: 10 completed passesKenneh: 2 completed passesLoturi: 10 completed passesSims: 7 completed passesWhite: 7 completed passes126301716442141126LaidlawRandallIacovittiSmithMurrayHarmonCancolaKennehLoturiSimsWhiteStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
RowlesCochrane14
McKayCochrane12
AtkinsonShankland11
CochraneShankland11
RowlesMcKay10

Ross County

FromToPasses
LoturiCancola5
CancolaSims4
LoturiHarmon4
IacovittiWhite4
TillsonWatson4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

4−1.19+2.29+1.54−0.35−2.42−4.92−4.04−4.66−1.22−3.49+4.25+1.73−1.612+6.04+0.32−1.11−1.530.03−0.70−2.81−1.07+6.31−0.20−1.90−0.61+0.70−0.50−0.30−0.65−8.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 32 matches

Ross County

8−0.717+0.89+1.16−0.29+0.46−1.48+1.311+3.711+3.35−0.86+2.35+1.68+3.35+1.26+1.45+1.74+1.630.03−1.02−1.31−0.83+2.31−0.67+4.80−1.10−0.40−0.70−0.31+0.41−4.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 32 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.020.010.020.010.010.010.020.020.030.010.050.030.050.070.050.010.140.020.050.160.170.140.010.05−0.050.160.34LessMore

Ross County

0.010.020.010.040.010.020.020.020.050.02−0.020.010.010.040.04−0.010.04−0.02−0.010.020.110.10LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.26AttackHearts1.22 → 1.28Ross County0.95 → 0.94Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.34 → 1.31Ross County1.42 → 1.48

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
11th30%29%−1
Bottom44%53%+9
Kilmarnock
11th33%36%+3
Bottom33%28%−5
Dundee United
11th29%28%−1
Bottom21%18%−3

From the forecast before the match (22 April 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsRoss County
Expected goals1.640.92
Win54%20%
Expected Points1.870.87
Clean sheet40%19%

Hearts 54%Draw 26%Ross County 20%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

Ross County goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%6%3%1%5%2%4%1%6%5%2%2%2%1%12%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 22 April 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawRoss County win
Ross County
11th30%29%30%30%
Bottom44%53%41%26%
Kilmarnock
11th33%36%32%27%
Bottom33%28%34%44%
Dundee United
11th29%28%29%32%
Bottom21%18%22%26%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. L0–115 AprHibernian (A)xG 0.89–0.99
  2. L0–28 AprSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.94–1.25
  3. L1–21 AprKilmarnock (A)xG 0.68–2.72
  4. L0–318 MarAberdeen (A)xG 0.52–2.03
  5. L1–38 MarCeltic (A)xG 0.62–2.08
  6. W3–04 MarSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.63–1.19

Ross County

  1. L0–114 AprAberdeen (H)xG 0.94–0.65
  2. W2–08 AprSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.91–0.86
  3. L0–22 AprCeltic (H)xG 0.40–3.30
  4. L1–218 MarLivingston (A)xG 1.29–0.66
  5. L0–24 MarMotherwell (H)xG 1.19–1.42
  6. W4–025 FebDundee United (H)xG 2.57–0.60

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsRoss County
Position4th12th
Played3232
Won, drawn, lost13–⁠6–⁠137–⁠6–⁠19
Points45 (1.41 per game)27 (0.84 per game)
Expected Points per game1.281.02
Goals50–⁠4827–⁠46
xG per game1.46–⁠1.620.87–⁠1.43
Home: points, xG per game2.07, 1.93–⁠1.580.88, 0.92–⁠1.42
Away: points, xG per game0.82, 1.05–⁠1.660.80, 0.80–⁠1.44
ManagerSteven Naismith (1)Malky Mackay (70)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.26AttackHearts1.22, 3rdRoss County0.95, 11thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.34, 7thRoss County1.42, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprHearts attack: 1.22Ross County attack: 0.951.220.95Ross CountyHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprHearts defence: 1.34Ross County defence: 1.421.421.34

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsRoss County
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+9%+28%−38%+20%
Counter-attacks+33%−51%−5%+122%
Set pieces−6%+34%−3%−2%
Penalties+42%−5%−84%−68%
Headers−15%+38%−4%+8%
Left side−12%+19%−27%+8%
Centre+9%+32%−21%+17%
Right side+19%+25%−41%+32%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdRoss County concededLeft side−12%+32%Centre+9%+17%Right side+19%+8%Open play+9%+20%Counter-attacks+33%+122%Set pieces−6%−2%Headers−15%+8%

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdHearts concededLeft side−27%+25%Centre−21%+32%Right side−41%+19%Open play−38%+28%Counter-attacks−5%−51%Set pieces−3%+34%Headers−4%+38%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsRoss County

1.46xG0.87
1.62xG against1.43
56%Possession44%
11.8Shots9.3
14.3Shots against16.5
4.1Shots on target2.8
1.9Big chances1.0
21.8Touches in the opposition box17.6
443Passes314
76%Pass accuracy62%
5.2Corners3.7
48%Field tilt38%
33.9Final-third entries29.0
11.4Box entries7.5
14.0Passes per defensive action15.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level331.751.37
Ahead281.472.02
Behind291.141.53

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level470.821.34
Ahead121.081.57
Behind300.851.51

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.230.177–9
16–300.180.219–7
31–450.300.308–3
46–600.200.306–12
61–750.200.288–7
76–900.350.3512–10

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.155–4
16–300.130.171–5
31–450.130.323–8
46–600.180.266–8
61–750.140.207–9
76–900.150.345–12

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 16Clark 14Stewart 2Smith 17Sibbick 5Hill 3Sibbick 15Neilson 4Halkett 3Rowles 21Kingsley 11Cochrane 9Cochrane 12Halliday 8Snodgrass 5Devlin 18Halliday 8Kiomourtzoglou 8Snodgrass 14Grant 4Smith 1Ginnelly 10Forrest 6Hill 5Shankland 5Smith 5Grant 3McKay 20Forrest 3Grant 3Shankland 19Ginnelly 7Humphrys 34-2-3-1 in 9 of 32 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (9), 3-4-3 (8), 3-4-2-1 (6), 4-1-4-1 (4), 3-5-2 (2), 4-3-3 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Ross County

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTLaidlaw 32Johnson 14Randall 13Watson 3Baldwin 22Watson 7Smith 3Iacovitti 31Harmon 13Purrington 11Kenneh 4Loturi 13Callachan 8Harmon 6Cancola 16Tillson 12Kenneh 5Edwards 8Watson 5Sims 4Dhanda 11Callachan 8Tillson 4Edwards 6White 5Dhanda 4White 21Hiwula-Mayifuila 5Brophy 44-2-3-1 in 21 of 32 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (21), 3-4-1-2 (6), 3-5-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
30 October 2022Ross County1–2HeartsxG 1.44–0.65
30 July 2022Hearts2–1Ross CountyxG 1.78–1.54
30 April 2022Hearts0–0Ross CountyxG 1.46–0.27
2 April 2022Ross County1–1HeartsxG 2.62–1.80
26 December 2021Hearts2–1Ross CountyxG 1.73–1.00
18 September 2021Ross County2–2HeartsxG 1.44–1.21

6 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 3, Ross County won 0, and 3 were drawn. Goals 9–6 and xG 1.44–1.39 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland272,5121840.680.09
Humphrys7757300.410.04
Ginnelly201,628820.240.17
Grant101,100220.230.14

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Brophy8536320.370.08
Sims8684000.200.17
White272,424720.260.07
Edwards151,447220.120.08

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.