Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Ross County 0–1 Hearts

Saturday 30 September 2023, 15:00 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 7 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 4,773

Hearts Forrest 69'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountyHearts
Goals01
xG0.400.98
Expected Points0.791.83

Ross County 14%Draw 38%Hearts 48%

Most likely score 0–0, 25%. Final score 0–1, 25%.

Hearts goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+12%3%10%12%5%1%2%2%1%25%25%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTBrophy on for White and Murray on for Samuel, 46'Loturi on for Dhanda, 65'Allardice on for Turner, 66'Henderson on for Brown, 85'Forrest on for Offiah and Lowry on for Denholm, 56'Halliday on for Grant, 73'Boyce on for Vargas, 84'Forrest 69'Hearts 0.98Ross County 0.4000.511.50153045607590HTBrophy on for White and Murray on for Samuel, 46'Loturi on for Dhanda, 65'Allardice on for Turner, 66'Henderson on for Brown, 85'Forrest on for Offiah and Lowry on for Denholm, 56'Halliday on for Grant, 73'Boyce on for Vargas, 84'Forrest 69'0.980.40Ross CountyHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountyHearts

0.40 −0.71xG0.98 −0.17
0.15 −1.01xG on target1.59 +0.23
9 −2Shots17 +4
1 −2.8Shots on target4 +0.2
1 −1.3Big chances2 +0.5
23 +3Touches in the opposition box25 −4
37% −4Possession63% −2
307 0Passes530 +28
62% +1Pass accuracy77% −1
40% −6Field tilt60% −5
23 −7Final-third entries60 +13
12 +2.7Box entries19 +4.3
24.3 +9.5Passes per defensive action10.7 +0.8
5 −0.2Corners5 −4.3
13 −2Tackles11 −2
8 −2.8Interceptions7 −0.3
14 −7Clearances15 −2
3 −1.2Saves1 −2.3
15 +2Fouls10 −1
0 −2.7Offsides1 +0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

Randall 90+2', 0.11 xGNightingale 53', 0.09 xGPurrington 74', 0.07 xGBrophy 87', 0.04 xGBrown 10', 0.02 xGSamuel 40', 0.02 xGBrown 69', 0.02 xGBaldwin 77', 0.02 xGDhanda 42', 0.01 xG28%0.11 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.11 xG, 0 goals38%0.15 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals23%0.09 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals3%0.01 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals8%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Forrest 58', 0.23 xGShankland 63', 0.10 xGGrant 32', 0.07 xGLowry 88', 0.07 xGKingsley 20', 0.06 xGShankland 38', 0.06 xGGrant 28', 0.05 xGShankland 44', 0.05 xGVargas 60', 0.05 xGGrant 20', 0.04 xGDenholm 25', 0.04 xGOffiah 52', 0.04 xGKingsley 9', 0.02 xGGrant 59', 0.02 xGSibbick 49', 0.01 xGForrest 61', 0.01 xGForrest 69', 0.07 xG, goal23%0.23 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.23 xG, 0 goals29%0.28 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.28 xG, 1 goal19%0.19 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals28%0.27 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.27 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountyHearts

0.18 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.78 12 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.07 1 shot, 0 goals
0.22 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.13 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
69 min (73%) · Ross County 0.15, Hearts 0.92 xG
Hearts ahead
26 min (27%) · Ross County 0.24, Hearts 0.07 xG

Line-ups

1355424723252610LaidlawNightingaleBaldwinLeakBrownTurnerRandallPurringtonSamuelWhiteDhandaYellow cardYellow card85'66'46'46'65'Ross County 3-4-3Malky Mackay28212153298777229ClarkSibbickKentRowlesKingsleyOffiahNieuwenhofVargasGrantDenholmShanklandYellow card56'84'73'56'Hearts 4-2-3-1Steven Naismith

Ross County substitutes

  • 46' Brophy for White
  • 46' Murray for Samuel
  • 65' Loturi for Dhanda
  • 66' Allardice for Turner · yellow card 90+5'
  • 85' Henderson for Brown

Hearts substitutes

  • 56' Forrest for Offiah · goal 69'
  • 56' Lowry for Denholm · 1 assist
  • 73' Halliday for Grant · yellow card 90+1'
  • 84' Boyce for Vargas

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0000.0450
NightingaleCB900.090.0100.0435
BaldwinCB900.020.0300.0634
LeakCB900.000.0000.0544
BrownRWB850.030.0710.0132
Turner CM660.000.0100.0103
Randall CM900.110.0310.0234
PurringtonLWB900.070.0300.0737
SamuelRW460.020.010−0.0100
WhiteST460.000.0110.0323
DhandaLW650.010.162−0.0121
BrophyFW440.040.0200.0110
MurrayFW440.000.0000.0235
LoturiMF250.000.0200.0000
Allardice MF240.000.0110.0001
HendersonFW50.000.030−0.0101

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0340
SibbickRB900.010.0310.13104
KentCB900.000.0500.1683
RowlesCB900.000.0500.2499
KingsleyLB900.070.5010.2177
Offiah DM560.040.0500.0011
NieuwenhofDM900.000.0700.0884
VargasRW840.050.2120.1420
GrantAM730.180.2720.20121
DenholmLW560.040.0210.0833
ShanklandST900.210.072−0.0211
ForrestMF3410.310.0610.0421
LowryMF3410.070.2720.1840
Halliday MF170.000.000−0.0103
BoyceFW60.000.0010.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Laidlaw and Leak: 3 passesLaidlaw and Brown: 3 passesLaidlaw and Purrington: 3 passesBaldwin and Randall: 3 passesLeak and Purrington: 3 passesBrown and Randall: 3 passesPurrington and White: 3 passesPurrington and Dhanda: 3 passesBaldwin and Dhanda: 4 passesNightingale and Dhanda: 4 passesLeak and White: 4 passesBrown and Turner: 4 passesPurrington and Turner: 4 passesRandall and White: 4 passesRandall and Dhanda: 4 passesBrown and White: 5 passesTurner and White: 5 passesSamuel and Dhanda: 5 passesBrown and Dhanda: 6 passesTurner and Dhanda: 8 passesLaidlaw: 10 completed passesBaldwin: 10 completed passesNightingale: 9 completed passesLeak: 10 completed passesBrown: 14 completed passesPurrington: 8 completed passesRandall: 11 completed passesTurner: 17 completed passesSamuel: 4 completed passesWhite: 9 completed passesDhanda: 16 completed passes1535424327252610LaidlawBaldwinNightingaleLeakBrownPurringtonRandallTurnerSamuelWhiteDhandaStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Clark and Sibbick: 6 passesRowles and Nieuwenhof: 6 passesRowles and Vargas: 6 passesKent and Offiah: 6 passesNieuwenhof and Vargas: 6 passesNieuwenhof and Denholm: 6 passesVargas and Shankland: 6 passesGrant and Shankland: 6 passesClark and Rowles: 7 passesClark and Kent: 7 passesKent and Kingsley: 7 passesNieuwenhof and Offiah: 7 passesSibbick and Grant: 8 passesNieuwenhof and Grant: 8 passesOffiah and Shankland: 9 passesSibbick and Rowles: 10 passesSibbick and Nieuwenhof: 10 passesRowles and Kingsley: 10 passesKingsley and Grant: 10 passesOffiah and Grant: 10 passesKent and Nieuwenhof: 13 passesKingsley and Denholm: 17 passesSibbick and Offiah: 24 passesRowles and Kent: 24 passesSibbick and Kent: 27 passesClark: 14 completed passesSibbick: 50 completed passesRowles: 38 completed passesKent: 52 completed passesKingsley: 28 completed passesNieuwenhof: 34 completed passesOffiah: 31 completed passesVargas: 16 completed passesGrant: 28 completed passesDenholm: 20 completed passesShankland: 14 completed passes28211523829777229ClarkSibbickRowlesKentKingsleyNieuwenhofOffiahVargasGrantDenholmShanklandStarters until 56' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
DhandaTurner6
BrownDhanda5
LaidlawMurray5
TurnerDhanda4
LeakWhite4

Hearts

FromToPasses
KentSibbick21
RowlesKent15
KentRowles14
SibbickOffiah13
SibbickKent13

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

11+6.86−0.712+0.77−3.24−0.77−3.09+3.88+2.710+2.511+0.84−2.33−3.22−1.040.02−3.22−3.84−1.30−3.83−1.04−1.72−2.01−1.81−0.25+3.00−2.34+2.51+0.310.01+0.71+0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Hearts

6−1.512+4.58−1.011+5.29+4.23−2.22−1.78+2.24−2.77+0.53−1.82−2.21−3.56−0.72−2.74−0.82−0.86+2.24−2.22+0.51−0.71−0.51−0.52+0.31+0.20−1.20−0.80−0.72+1.03−7.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.010.020.010.010.010.010.010.040.030.02−0.040.040.020.010.010.050.07LessMore

Hearts

0.010.020.010.010.010.040.010.030.030.020.050.030.070.100.020.080.060.090.020.040.14−0.020.100.11−0.100.100.230.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackRoss County1.05 → 1.03Hearts1.28 → 1.28Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.53 → 1.52Hearts1.31 → 1.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
Top six20%14%−6
11th16%19%+3
Bottom12%15%+3
Hearts
Top six56%67%+11
11th4%2%−2
Bottom2%1%−1
St. Johnstone
Top six7%7%0
11th22%23%+1
Bottom35%34%−1

From the forecast before the match (30 September 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountyHearts
Expected goals1.281.33
Win35%37%
Expected Points1.331.40
Clean sheet26%28%

Ross County 35%Draw 28%Hearts 37%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Hearts goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+8%9%7%3%1%9%8%4%1%6%8%5%2%3%3%2%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 30 September 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawHearts win
Ross County
Top six20%28%19%14%
11th16%12%16%19%
Bottom12%8%12%15%
Hearts
Top six56%46%55%67%
11th4%5%3%2%
Bottom2%2%2%1%
St. Johnstone
Top six7%7%6%7%
11th22%22%21%23%
Bottom35%38%35%34%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. L0–424 SepAberdeen (A)xG 0.85–3.33
  2. D1–116 SepLivingston (H)xG 0.87–0.17
  3. W1–02 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 0.72–1.42
  4. L0–226 AugRangers (H)xG 0.48–1.96
  5. W2–012 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.60–0.49
  6. L2–45 AugCeltic (A)xG 1.13–4.15

Hearts

  1. L0–123 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.19–1.59
  2. W2–016 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.18–0.53
  3. L0–13 SepMotherwell (H)xG 1.51–1.14
  4. L0–127 AugDundee FC (A)xG 0.86–1.52
  5. D0–013 AugKilmarnock (H)xG 0.39–0.73
  6. W2–05 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.77–0.94

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountyHearts
Position7th6th
Played66
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠1–⁠32–⁠1–⁠3
Points7 (1.17 per game)7 (1.17 per game)
Expected Points per game1.001.39
Goals6–⁠114–⁠3
xG per game1.11–⁠1.921.15–⁠1.07
Home: points, xG per game1.33, 1.32–⁠0.871.33, 1.03–⁠0.80
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.90–⁠2.971.00, 1.27–⁠1.35
ManagerMalky Mackay (82)Steven Naismith (2)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackRoss County1.05, 9thHearts1.28, 4thDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.53, 11thHearts1.31, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepRoss County attack: 1.05Hearts attack: 1.281.281.05HeartsRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepRoss County defence: 1.53Hearts defence: 1.311.531.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountyHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−6%+17%−2%−25%
Counter-attacks−93%+265%+6%−42%
Set pieces+2%+16%−22%+27%
Penalties−100%+124%−100%−100%
Headers−2%−14%−14%+7%
Left side+25%−9%−27%−17%
Centre−24%+73%+4%−20%
Right side−14%+2%−8%+7%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdHearts concededLeft side+25%+7%Centre−24%−20%Right side−14%−17%Open play−6%−25%Counter-attacks−93%−42%Set pieces+2%+27%Headers−2%+7%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdRoss County concededLeft side−27%+2%Centre+4%+73%Right side−8%−9%Open play−2%+17%Counter-attacks+6%+265%Set pieces−22%+16%Headers−14%−14%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountyHearts

1.11xG1.15
1.92xG against1.07
42%Possession65%
11.5Shots12.5
14.5Shots against11.2
3.8Shots on target3.8
2.3Big chances1.5
20.0Touches in the opposition box28.7
307Passes502
61%Pass accuracy78%
5.2Corners9.3
46%Field tilt65%
29.7Final-third entries47.3
9.3Box entries14.7
14.8Passes per defensive action9.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level381.411.17
Ahead171.441.31
Behind350.623.03

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level460.721.46
Ahead151.730.56
Behind281.560.72

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.260.130–0
16–300.180.420–5
31–450.100.571–2
46–600.270.274–2
61–750.120.210–2
76–900.180.321–0

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.040.291–1
16–300.090.220–1
31–450.050.070–0
46–600.250.290–0
61–750.390.052–1
76–900.340.141–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLaidlaw 6Nightingale 4Dhanda 1Sims 1Baldwin 6Leak 5Harmon 1Brown 6Randall 5Turner 3Dhanda 2Loturi 2Reid 3Harmon 2Dhanda 1Dhanda 2Sims 2Randall 1White 6Murray 63-4-1-2 in 3 of 6 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 3-5-2 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTClark 6Atkinson 5Offiah 1Kent 6Rowles 6Kingsley 5Cochrane 1Devlin 4Baningime 1Lowry 1Haring 4Nieuwenhof 1Denholm 1Oda 5Devlin 1Boyce 3Nieuwenhof 1Shankland 1Vargas 3Lowry 2Forrest 1Shankland 5Tagawa 14-2-3-1 in 5 of 6 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
22 April 2023Hearts6–1Ross CountyxG 3.68–1.59
30 October 2022Ross County1–2HeartsxG 1.44–0.65
30 July 2022Hearts2–1Ross CountyxG 1.78–1.54
30 April 2022Hearts0–0Ross CountyxG 1.46–0.27
2 April 2022Ross County1–1HeartsxG 2.62–1.80
26 December 2021Hearts2–1Ross CountyxG 1.73–1.00

7 league meetings since 2020/21: Ross County won 0, Hearts won 4, and 3 were drawn. Goals 7–15 and xG 1.41–1.76 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
White6516100.300.04
Brown6540100.030.12
Baldwin6540000.040.08
Randall6540100.040.02

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland6540100.320.18
Kingsley5450000.050.12
Kent6540000.070.03
Rowles6514000.040.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.