Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Ross County 1–2 Hearts

Sunday 30 October 2022, 15:00 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 13 · Half-time 1–2 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 4,438

Ross County White 11'

Hearts Shankland 15', Halliday 20'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountyHearts
Goals12
xG1.440.65
Expected Points2.000.72

Ross County 57%Draw 28%Hearts 14%

Most likely score 1–0, 18%. Final score 1–2, 4%.

Hearts goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+10%7%2%4%10%3%6%4%1%1%1%18%14%14%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTLoturi on for Cancola, 56'Olaigbe on for Hiwula-Mayifuila, 76'Sims on for Tillson and Samuel on for Harmon, 82'Watson on for Edwards, 83'Forrest on for C. Smith, 60'Neilson on for Halliday and Grant on for Ginnelly, 61'Henderson on for McKay, 75'White 11'Shankland 15'Halliday 20'Ross County 1.44Hearts 0.6500.511.520153045607590HTLoturi on for Cancola, 56'Olaigbe on for Hiwula-Mayifuila, 76'Sims on for Tillson and Samuel on for Harmon, 82'Watson on for Edwards, 83'Forrest on for C. Smith, 60'Neilson on for Halliday and Grant on for Ginnelly, 61'Henderson on for McKay, 75'White 11'Shankland 15'Halliday 20'1.440.65Ross CountyHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountyHearts

1.44 +0.78xG0.65 −0.81
1.91 +1.33xG on target0.92 −0.37
15 +7.2Shots11 −1.1
7 +5.1Shots on target3 −1.5
2 +1.3Big chances0 −2.2
29 +15Touches in the opposition box22 +3
47% +4Possession53% +3
427 +112Passes512 +112
79% +16Pass accuracy80% +8
54% +18Field tilt46% −1
42 +14Final-third entries38 +5
18 +11.0Box entries13 +2.5
17.2 +2Passes per defensive action13.6 −1
6 +2.6Corners1 −2.8
19 +3Tackles22 +4
11 +1.1Interceptions12 +3.0
6 −16Clearances23 +8
1 −2.2Saves6 +2.6
11 −1Fouls4 −7
1 −1.5Offsides1 +0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

Johnson 61', 0.37 xGTillson 45+1', 0.20 xGWhite 33', 0.08 xGWhite 90+3', 0.08 xGIacovitti 85', 0.06 xGWhite 31', 0.05 xGJohnson 26', 0.04 xGEdwards 31', 0.04 xGJohnson 6', 0.03 xGHiwula-Mayifuila 47', 0.03 xGDhanda 51', 0.03 xGLoturi 60', 0.03 xGDhanda 38', 0.02 xGSamuel 84', 0.02 xGWhite 11', 0.37 xG, goal52%0.75 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.75 xG, 1 goal33%0.48 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.48 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals13%0.19 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Forrest 70', 0.09 xGShankland 15', 0.06 xGShankland 41', 0.06 xGKiomourtzoglou 74', 0.04 xGGrant 79', 0.04 xGHenderson 82', 0.04 xGGinnelly 43', 0.03 xGForrest 78', 0.03 xGGinnelly 20', 0.02 xGHalliday 20', 0.16 xG, goalShankland 15', 0.07 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals52%0.34 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.34 xG, 2 goals33%0.22 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals15%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountyHearts

1.27 11 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.49 10 shots, 1 goal
0.18 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.16 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
16 min (17%) · Ross County 0.41, Hearts 0.19 xG
Ross County ahead
4 min (4%) · Ross County 0.00, Hearts 0.13 xG
Hearts ahead
74 min (79%) · Ross County 1.04, Hearts 0.33 xG

Line-ups

11256162241910726LaidlawJohnsonBaldwinIacovittiHarmonTillsonCancolaHiwula-MayifuilaDhandaEdwardsWhiteYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal82'82'56'76'83'Ross County 4-2-3-1Malky Mackay122119168302777189GordonM. SmithSibbickCochraneHallidayKiomourtzoglouGinnellyC. SmithSnodgrassMcKayShanklandYellow cardGoalGoalYellow card61'61'60'75'Hearts 4-1-4-1Robbie Neilson

Ross County substitutes

  • 56' Loturi for Cancola
  • 76' Olaigbe for Hiwula-Mayifuila
  • 82' Sims for Tillson
  • 82' Samuel for Harmon
  • 83' Watson for Edwards

Hearts substitutes

  • 60' Forrest for C. Smith
  • 61' Neilson for Halliday
  • 61' Grant for Ginnelly
  • 75' Henderson for McKay

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0000.0450
JohnsonRB900.440.0210.0366
Baldwin CB900.000.2110.2786
IacovittiCB900.060.0110.0399
HarmonLB820.000.1630.1594
Tillson DM820.200.0100.0111
Cancola DM560.000.0200.0450
Hiwula-MayifuilaRW760.030.0310.1141
DhandaAM9010.060.5040.2892
EdwardsLW830.040.0520.1095
WhiteST9010.580.010−0.0300
LoturiMF340.030.1300.0952
OlaigbeFW140.000.000−0.0100
SimsMF80.000.0910.0933
SamuelFW80.020.0000.0000
WatsonDF70.000.0000.0101

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0341
M. Smith RB900.000.0510.10812
SibbickCB900.000.0800.1866
CochraneCB900.000.0210.1076
HallidayLB6110.160.0000.0124
KiomourtzoglouDM900.040.0510.0539
GinnellyRM610.050.020−0.0274
C. SmithCM600.000.0310.0330
SnodgrassCM9010.000.1740.1126
McKayLM750.000.0600.0774
Shankland ST9010.190.052−0.0822
ForrestMF300.120.0200.0512
NeilsonDF290.000.0000.0313
GrantMF290.040.1100.1221
HendersonFW150.040.0000.0210

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Laidlaw and Baldwin: 4 passesJohnson and Baldwin: 4 passesJohnson and Cancola: 4 passesBaldwin and Iacovitti: 4 passesBaldwin and Hiwula-Mayifuila: 4 passesHarmon and White: 4 passesIacovitti and Tillson: 5 passesHarmon and Cancola: 5 passesHarmon and Tillson: 5 passesCancola and Hiwula-Mayifuila: 5 passesCancola and Edwards: 5 passesCancola and White: 5 passesTillson and Hiwula-Mayifuila: 5 passesTillson and Dhanda: 5 passesIacovitti and Harmon: 6 passesJohnson and Tillson: 7 passesJohnson and Hiwula-Mayifuila: 7 passesBaldwin and Dhanda: 7 passesDhanda and Edwards: 8 passesIacovitti and Cancola: 9 passesCancola and Dhanda: 9 passesJohnson and Dhanda: 10 passesHarmon and Edwards: 10 passesHiwula-Mayifuila and Dhanda: 10 passesLaidlaw and Iacovitti: 11 passesLaidlaw: 14 completed passesJohnson: 19 completed passesBaldwin: 17 completed passesIacovitti: 23 completed passesHarmon: 20 completed passesCancola: 24 completed passesTillson: 17 completed passesHiwula-Mayifuila: 15 completed passesDhanda: 27 completed passesEdwards: 12 completed passesWhite: 11 completed passes11256164221910726LaidlawJohnsonBaldwinIacovittiHarmonCancolaTillsonHiwula-MayifuilaDhandaEdwardsWhiteStarters until 56' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hearts

Ginnelly and Snodgrass: 5 passesSnodgrass and McKay: 5 passesSnodgrass and Shankland: 5 passesM. Smith and Cochrane: 6 passesSibbick and C. Smith: 6 passesHalliday and C. Smith: 6 passesHalliday and McKay: 6 passesGordon and Cochrane: 7 passesSibbick and Kiomourtzoglou: 9 passesKiomourtzoglou and Ginnelly: 9 passesGordon and Sibbick: 10 passesM. Smith and Kiomourtzoglou: 10 passesSibbick and Snodgrass: 10 passesM. Smith and Snodgrass: 11 passesM. Smith and C. Smith: 11 passesM. Smith and Shankland: 11 passesCochrane and Snodgrass: 11 passesCochrane and McKay: 13 passesSibbick and Ginnelly: 16 passesCochrane and Halliday: 19 passesSibbick and Cochrane: 20 passesM. Smith and Sibbick: 36 passesM. Smith and Ginnelly: 39 passesGordon: 15 completed passesM. Smith: 65 completed passesSibbick: 57 completed passesCochrane: 43 completed passesHalliday: 20 completed passesKiomourtzoglou: 27 completed passesGinnelly: 36 completed passesSnodgrass: 25 completed passesC. Smith: 15 completed passesMcKay: 16 completed passesShankland: 12 completed passes122119168307727189GordonM. SmithSibbickCochraneHallidayKiomourtzoglouGinnellySnodgrassC. SmithMcKayShanklandStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
BaldwinLoturi10
LaidlawIacovitti9
JohnsonDhanda9
HarmonIacovitti8
DhandaJohnson7

Hearts

FromToPasses
SibbickM. Smith25
GinnellyM. Smith21
M. SmithGinnelly18
M. SmithSibbick14
M. SmithShankland13

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

3−3.27−1.54−4.08+2.27+1.04−3.23−3.29+1.28+1.75−1.28+4.23−0.59+4.35+0.51−3.46+2.63−0.27+4.08+3.83+0.81−0.70−0.90−1.94+2.50−0.80−0.42+1.20−0.30−0.76−9.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Hearts

8+3.45−1.519+8.27+1.46+2.64−4.211+5.26−0.58−0.17−0.45−0.52−3.44+0.52−3.65−0.53−1.53−0.53+0.12−0.72−2.911+7.55+3.41+0.23+1.93+1.00−0.61+0.70−0.60−0.20−0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.010.020.010.020.020.030.030.090.030.060.020.020.030.030.030.020.100.130.06−0.020.040.140.170.01−0.06−0.110.26LessMore

Hearts

0.020.010.040.080.010.020.030.010.020.010.040.020.040.020.020.060.040.07−0.060.080.070.07−0.120.060.010.16LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.20AttackRoss County0.84 → 0.86Hearts1.22 → 1.21Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.53 → 1.50Hearts1.28 → 1.29

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
Top six1%1%0
11th24%23%−1
Bottom53%60%+7
Hearts
Top six68%77%+9
11th2%1%−1
Bottom<1%<1%0
Dundee United
Top six2%2%0
11th28%30%+2
Bottom25%22%−3
Motherwell
Top six39%37%−2
Bottom2%1%−1

From the forecast before the match (30 October 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountyHearts
Expected goals1.081.41
Win28%44%
Expected Points1.131.59
Clean sheet24%34%

Ross County 28%Draw 28%Hearts 44%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

Hearts goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+9%8%4%1%8%9%4%1%5%7%5%2%2%2%2%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 30 October 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawHearts win
Ross County
Top six1%2%1%1%
11th24%25%25%23%
Bottom53%42%53%60%
Hearts
Top six68%58%65%77%
11th2%3%2%1%
Bottom<1%1%<1%<1%
Dundee United
Top six2%2%3%2%
11th28%26%28%30%
Bottom25%30%24%22%
Motherwell
Top six39%42%41%37%
Bottom2%2%1%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. L0–122 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 0.70–1.10
  2. D1–115 OctDundee United (H)xG 0.35–1.64
  3. W1–08 OctLivingston (A)xG 0.53–1.73
  4. L0–54 OctMotherwell (H)xG 0.52–2.58
  5. L0–21 OctHibernian (H)xG 0.66–1.66
  6. D0–017 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.39–0.82

Hearts

  1. L3–422 OctCeltic (H)xG 2.90–2.82
  2. L0–216 OctAberdeen (A)xG 1.36–1.73
  3. D2–29 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 1.17–1.68
  4. L0–41 OctRangers (H)xG 0.41–1.85
  5. W3–018 SepMotherwell (A)xG 1.92–2.83
  6. L0–13 SepLivingston (A)xG 0.69–1.19

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountyHearts
Position11th9th
Played1211
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠3–⁠74–⁠2–⁠5
Points9 (0.75 per game)14 (1.27 per game)
Expected Points per game0.801.16
Goals6–⁠2018–⁠20
xG per game0.66–⁠1.501.46–⁠1.79
Home: points, xG per game0.83, 0.66–⁠1.531.80, 1.93–⁠1.64
Away: points, xG per game0.67, 0.67–⁠1.480.83, 1.06–⁠1.91
ManagerMalky Mackay (50)Robbie Neilson (49)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.20AttackRoss County0.84, 12thHearts1.22, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.53, 12thHearts1.28, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctRoss County attack: 0.84Hearts attack: 1.221.220.84HeartsRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctRoss County defence: 1.53Hearts defence: 1.281.531.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountyHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−54%+24%+23%+65%
Counter-attacks−44%+117%−69%−42%
Set pieces−5%+13%−26%+18%
Penalties−100%−44%+83%−39%
Headers−21%+5%−21%+44%
Left side−22%+6%+12%+46%
Centre−43%+35%+9%+58%
Right side−61%+32%+5%+42%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdHearts concededLeft side−22%+42%Centre−43%+58%Right side−61%+46%Open play−54%+65%Counter-attacks−44%−42%Set pieces−5%+18%Headers−21%+44%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdRoss County concededLeft side+12%+32%Centre+9%+35%Right side+5%+6%Open play+23%+24%Counter-attacks−69%+117%Set pieces−26%+13%Headers−21%+5%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountyHearts

0.66xG1.46
1.50xG against1.79
43%Possession50%
7.8Shots12.1
16.7Shots against14.2
1.9Shots on target4.5
0.7Big chances2.2
14.2Touches in the opposition box19.4
315Passes400
63%Pass accuracy72%
3.4Corners3.8
36%Field tilt47%
28.5Final-third entries33.0
7.0Box entries10.5
14.9Passes per defensive action14.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level590.651.39
Ahead40.003.10
Behind280.771.53

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level312.121.84
Ahead271.272.06
Behind320.991.50

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.050.190–0
16–300.140.220–3
31–450.110.301–1
46–600.060.371–8
61–750.140.181–1
76–900.150.243–7

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.210.201–4
16–300.240.203–2
31–450.310.262–0
46–600.230.394–5
61–750.220.273–2
76–900.240.465–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTLaidlaw 12Johnson 8Watson 2Randall 2Baldwin 11Watson 1Iacovitti 12Purrington 11Harmon 1Callachan 6Paton 2Loturi 1Cancola 10Tillson 5Edwards 3Hiwula-Mayifuila 3Sims 2Callachan 5Dhanda 3Samuel 3Edwards 4Olaigbe 3Sims 2White 7Hiwula-Mayifuila 54-2-3-1 in every start

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 10Stewart 1M. Smith 6Sibbick 2Atkinson 2Rowles 5Neilson 4Sibbick 3Kingsley 6Cochrane 1Cochrane 8Halliday 2Kiomourtzoglou 1Devlin 6Haring 4Kiomourtzoglou 2Halliday 4Snodgrass 3Grant 2Forrest 4McKay 2Ginnelly 2Boyce 3Kiomourtzoglou 2McKay 2McKay 5Mackay-Steven 3Forrest 2Shankland 6Humphrys 3Ginnelly 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 11 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 3-4-3 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
30 July 2022Hearts2–1Ross CountyxG 1.78–1.54
30 April 2022Hearts0–0Ross CountyxG 1.46–0.27
2 April 2022Ross County1–1HeartsxG 2.62–1.80
26 December 2021Hearts2–1Ross CountyxG 1.73–1.00
18 September 2021Ross County2–2HeartsxG 1.44–1.21

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Ross County won 0, Hearts won 2, and 3 were drawn. Goals 5–7 and xG 1.37–1.60 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
White7674100.200.07
Edwards7704210.170.09
Johnson8759000.060.07
Olaigbe4483000.080.04

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland7712720.750.05
Forrest8655300.270.07
McKay9804210.120.16
Devlin6454010.080.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.