Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Ross County 2–1 Hearts

Saturday 16 March 2024, 15:00 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 30 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Grant Irvine · Attendance 5,304

Ross County Murray 42', 49'

Hearts Oda 90+1'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountyHearts
Goals21
xG1.741.27
Expected Points1.770.94

Ross County 49%Draw 29%Hearts 22%

Most likely score 1–1, 17%. Final score 2–1, 14%.

Hearts goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+11%10%4%1%10%10%3%1%4%5%3%1%1%17%14%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTBrophy on for White, 46'Khela on for Dhanda, 77'Sims on for Murray, 84'Harmon on for Reid, 90+2'Lembikisa on for Atkinson and Grant on for Denholm, 57'Oda on for Cochrane, 82'Murray 42'Murray 49'Oda 90+1'Ross County 1.74Hearts 1.2700.511.520153045607590HTBrophy on for White, 46'Khela on for Dhanda, 77'Sims on for Murray, 84'Harmon on for Reid, 90+2'Lembikisa on for Atkinson and Grant on for Denholm, 57'Oda on for Cochrane, 82'Murray 42'Murray 49'Oda 90+1'1.741.27Ross CountyHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountyHearts

1.74 +0.89xG1.27 +0.02
11 +1.3Shots21 +7.6
3 −0.2Shots on target6 +1.6
4 +2.6Big chances0 −1.3
19 +2Touches in the opposition box49 +23
36% −8Possession64% +8
309 −30Passes534 +73
68% +2Pass accuracy79% +3
25% −19Field tilt75% +20
33 +2Final-third entries63 +20
9 +0.2Box entries28 +14.6
34.7 +20Passes per defensive action12.6 −1
2 −2.6Corners15 +8.4
13 −1Tackles18 +4
12 +2.5Interceptions1 −5.3
50 +24Clearances10 −12
5 +0.9Saves2 −0.9
7 −5Fouls6 −5
3 +1.6Offsides1 0.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

White 7', 0.95 xGEfete 26', 0.21 xGSheaf 5', 0.10 xGMurray 42', 0.08 xGSheaf 51', 0.05 xGDhanda 34', 0.03 xGSheaf 51', 0.03 xGMurray 1', 0.02 xGSheaf 61', 0.02 xGMurray 49', 0.18 xG, goalMurray 42', 0.07 xG, goal70%1.23 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.23 xG, 1 goal10%0.18 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.18 xG, 1 goal6%0.10 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals11%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Forrest 65', 0.21 xGKingsley 37', 0.15 xGForrest 65', 0.09 xGForrest 69', 0.09 xGShankland 10', 0.08 xGSibbick 24', 0.08 xGForrest 47', 0.06 xGKingsley 81', 0.06 xGShankland 64', 0.05 xGGrant 65', 0.05 xGOda 85', 0.04 xGOda 86', 0.04 xGShankland 89', 0.04 xGShankland 3', 0.03 xGVargas 39', 0.03 xGForrest 70', 0.03 xGVargas 81', 0.03 xGForrest 22', 0.02 xGForrest 39', 0.02 xGForrest 24', 0.01 xGOda 90+1', 0.08 xG, goal14%0.18 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals46%0.58 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.58 xG, 0 goals15%0.19 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.19 xG, 1 goal24%0.31 xGEdge of the box: 9 shots, 0.31 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountyHearts

1.47 8 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.96 16 shots, 1 goal
0.27 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.30 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
42 min (46%) · Ross County 1.47, Hearts 0.42 xG
Ross County ahead
50 min (54%) · Ross County 0.28, Hearts 0.85 xG

Line-ups

402454228121443102615WickensEfeteBaldwinLeakAyinaSheafLoturiReidDhandaWhiteMurrayYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoal90+2'77'46'84'Ross County 3-4-1-2Don Cowie2821153137761917922ClarkSibbickRowlesKingsleyAtkinsonVargasBaningimeCochraneForrestShanklandDenholmYellow card57'82'57'Hearts 3-5-2Steven Naismith

Ross County substitutes

  • 46' Brophy for White · 1 assist
  • 77' Khela for Dhanda
  • 84' Sims for Murray
  • 90+2' Harmon for Reid

Hearts substitutes

  • 57' Lembikisa for Atkinson
  • 57' Grant for Denholm · 1 assist
  • 82' Oda for Cochrane · goal 90+1'

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WickensGK900.000.0100.0542
EfeteCB900.210.0510.0725
BaldwinCB900.000.0100.04313
LeakCB900.000.0000.07515
AyinaRWB900.000.0100.05518
SheafCM900.200.0200.0525
Loturi CM900.000.0100.0435
ReidLWB900.000.2100.2147
Dhanda AM770.030.3330.2672
WhiteST460.950.010−0.0702
MurrayST8420.350.3810.0433
BrophyFW4410.000.011−0.0212
KhelaMF130.000.0000.0000
SimsMF60.000.0000.0111
HarmonDF00.000.0000.0001

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0000
SibbickCB900.080.0800.18132
RowlesCB900.000.042−0.04115
KingsleyCB900.210.0410.0756
AtkinsonRWB570.000.0400.09122
VargasCM900.050.1620.0940
BaningimeCM900.000.1700.26511
CochraneCM820.000.5730.0740
ForrestLWB900.530.1000.15101
Shankland ST900.200.3510.0732
DenholmST570.000.1320.2161
LembikisaDF330.000.0810.18101
GrantMF3310.050.1940.1251
OdaFW810.160.0000.0310

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Wickens and Leak: 4 passesEfete and White: 4 passesEfete and Murray: 4 passesBaldwin and Leak: 4 passesBaldwin and Reid: 4 passesLeak and Dhanda: 4 passesAyina and Sheaf: 4 passesSheaf and Dhanda: 4 passesReid and Murray: 4 passesLeak and Reid: 5 passesSheaf and Loturi: 5 passesSheaf and White: 5 passesDhanda and White: 5 passesEfete and Ayina: 6 passesBaldwin and Dhanda: 6 passesDhanda and Murray: 6 passesBaldwin and Loturi: 7 passesReid and Dhanda: 7 passesEfete and Sheaf: 9 passesBaldwin and Ayina: 9 passesLoturi and Dhanda: 11 passesWickens: 7 completed passesEfete: 14 completed passesBaldwin: 18 completed passesLeak: 12 completed passesAyina: 17 completed passesSheaf: 13 completed passesLoturi: 18 completed passesReid: 13 completed passesDhanda: 27 completed passesWhite: 9 completed passesMurray: 7 completed passes402454228121443102615WickensEfeteBaldwinLeakAyinaSheafLoturiReidDhandaWhiteMurrayStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hearts

Sibbick and Shankland: 5 passesKingsley and Shankland: 5 passesForrest and Denholm: 5 passesRowles and Baningime: 6 passesSibbick and Forrest: 6 passesKingsley and Atkinson: 6 passesKingsley and Baningime: 6 passesKingsley and Denholm: 6 passesAtkinson and Baningime: 6 passesBaningime and Cochrane: 6 passesBaningime and Denholm: 6 passesShankland and Denholm: 7 passesKingsley and Forrest: 8 passesKingsley and Cochrane: 9 passesAtkinson and Vargas: 9 passesAtkinson and Denholm: 9 passesRowles and Cochrane: 12 passesAtkinson and Shankland: 13 passesRowles and Sibbick: 15 passesSibbick and Kingsley: 15 passesSibbick and Atkinson: 25 passesRowles and Kingsley: 33 passesClark: 7 completed passesRowles: 42 completed passesSibbick: 42 completed passesKingsley: 45 completed passesAtkinson: 41 completed passesForrest: 12 completed passesBaningime: 23 completed passesVargas: 12 completed passesCochrane: 24 completed passesShankland: 16 completed passesDenholm: 19 completed passes2815213131767719922ClarkRowlesSibbickKingsleyAtkinsonForrestBaningimeVargasCochraneShanklandDenholmStarters until 57' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
LoturiDhanda8
EfeteSheaf8
DhandaMurray6
BaldwinLoturi6
DhandaLoturi6

Hearts

FromToPasses
KingsleyRowles23
RowlesKingsley19
SibbickRowles16
SibbickAtkinson15
KingsleySibbick11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

4−0.27−0.531+15.314+4.95−0.36−1.79+2.017+11.014+6.65−4.64−1.04−1.23−0.65+0.15−1.31−3.70−4.21−1.24+0.47+2.00−2.80−1.74+3.11−0.72−0.21−0.20−0.51+0.31+0.61+0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

Hearts

2−3.35−2.63−3.710+6.08+0.56+0.26+1.79+2.49+2.75−0.32−3.33−1.64−1.52−3.93−0.71−2.82−0.74+0.64−0.72+0.23+1.52+0.93+1.81−1.20−0.81+0.30−0.71+0.30−0.79−6.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.020.030.010.020.020.010.020.010.020.050.010.010.030.070.040.01−0.010.010.070.03−0.120.10−0.010.130.130.15LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.060.020.020.030.020.020.070.030.060.040.060.12−0.010.050.070.16−0.020.060.190.120.13−0.290.030.030.41LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackRoss County0.94 → 0.97Hearts1.31 → 1.29Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.58 → 1.55Hearts1.24 → 1.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
11th62%57%−5
Bottom13%6%−7
St. Johnstone
11th16%23%+7
Livingston
11th13%7%−6
Bottom84%91%+7

From the forecast before the match (16 March 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountyHearts
Expected goals1.091.43
Win28%44%
Expected Points1.121.60
Clean sheet24%34%

Ross County 28%Draw 28%Hearts 44%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

Hearts goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+9%8%4%1%8%9%4%2%5%7%5%2%2%2%2%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 16 March 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawHearts win
Ross County
11th62%57%62%65%
Bottom13%6%14%18%
St. Johnstone
11th16%23%15%11%
Livingston
11th13%7%14%17%
Bottom84%91%84%80%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. D2–213 MarHibernian (H)xG 1.14–1.33
  2. L0–22 MarHibernian (A)xG 0.35–1.27
  3. D1–127 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.02–0.67
  4. W3–224 FebLivingston (H)xG 1.06–1.13
  5. L0–217 FebDundee FC (A)xG 0.73–0.94
  6. L1–314 FebRangers (A)xG 0.54–4.94

Hearts

  1. W2–03 MarCeltic (H)xG 1.65–2.45
  2. D1–128 FebHibernian (H)xG 1.70–2.66
  3. L0–524 FebRangers (A)xG 0.60–1.47
  4. W2–017 FebMotherwell (H)xG 1.71–0.46
  5. W1–07 FebSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.70–0.45
  6. W3–23 FebDundee FC (A)xG 1.76–1.69

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountyHearts
Position11th3rd
Played2929
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠9–⁠1517–⁠4–⁠8
Points24 (0.83 per game)55 (1.90 per game)
Expected Points per game0.941.31
Goals26–⁠5038–⁠28
xG per game0.85–⁠1.601.25–⁠1.44
Home: points, xG per game1.14, 0.89–⁠1.211.87, 1.42–⁠1.38
Away: points, xG per game0.53, 0.82–⁠1.971.93, 1.06–⁠1.51
ManagerDon Cowie (6)Steven Naismith (25)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackRoss County0.94, 12thHearts1.31, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.58, 12thHearts1.24, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarRoss County attack: 0.94Hearts attack: 1.311.310.94HeartsRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarRoss County defence: 1.58Hearts defence: 1.241.581.24

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountyHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−22%+28%−12%+6%
Counter-attacks−45%+60%average−36%
Set pieces−41%−3%−14%+14%
Penalties−100%−15%+18%+18%
Headers−25%−17%−33%+5%
Left side−14%+22%−9%−7%
Centre−37%+32%−24%+3%
Right side−25%+4%+9%+22%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdHearts concededLeft side−14%+22%Centre−37%+3%Right side−25%−7%Open play−22%+6%Counter-attacks−45%−36%Set pieces−41%+14%Headers−25%+5%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdRoss County concededLeft side−9%+4%Centre−24%+32%Right side+9%+22%Open play−12%+28%Counter-attacksaverage+60%Set pieces−14%−3%Headers−33%−17%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountyHearts

0.85xG1.25
1.60xG against1.44
44%Possession56%
9.7Shots13.4
15.7Shots against13.8
3.2Shots on target4.4
1.4Big chances1.3
16.7Touches in the opposition box25.8
339Passes461
65%Pass accuracy76%
4.6Corners6.6
44%Field tilt55%
31.2Final-third entries43.0
8.8Box entries13.4
15.0Passes per defensive action13.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level470.961.24
Ahead140.931.69
Behind280.642.16

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.291.27
Ahead260.901.65
Behind191.621.58

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.142–3
16–300.150.265–8
31–450.140.372–9
46–600.130.226–8
61–750.110.234–6
76–900.160.397–16

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.193–3
16–300.160.255–5
31–450.160.213–4
46–600.230.288–5
61–750.290.1610–5
76–900.280.359–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLaidlaw 19Wickens 10Nightingale 14Ayina 8Dhanda 3Baldwin 21Leak 24Efete 4Borthwick-Jacks… 2Borthwick-JacksonBrown 24Efete 2Randall 1Randall 16Jenks 4Turner 4Loturi 11Allardice 10King 5Purrington 11Reid 8Harmon 6Dhanda 14Sims 4Loturi 4White 21Murray 26Brophy 7Dhanda 33-4-1-2 in 12 of 29 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (12), 4-4-2 (6), 3-5-2 (2), 4-5-1 (2), 4-3-1-2 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTClark 29Kingsley 16Sibbick 6Atkinson 6Kent 28Halkett 4Rowles 23Oda 7Atkinson 6Forrest 5Nieuwen… 21NieuwenhofDevlin 8Denholm 6Baningime 18Fraser 3Boyce 3Grant 10Lowry 7Haring 5Cochrane 16Forrest 5Vargas 3Shankland 27Kingsley 6Cochrane 6Vargas 63-5-2 in 15 of 29 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (15), 4-2-3-1 (12), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
30 December 2023Hearts2–2Ross CountyxG 1.87–1.54
30 September 2023Ross County0–1HeartsxG 0.40–0.98
22 April 2023Hearts6–1Ross CountyxG 3.68–1.59
30 October 2022Ross County1–2HeartsxG 1.44–0.65
30 July 2022Hearts2–1Ross CountyxG 1.78–1.54
30 April 2022Hearts0–0Ross CountyxG 1.46–0.27

9 league meetings since 2020/21: Ross County won 0, Hearts won 5, and 4 were drawn. Goals 9–18 and xG 1.32–1.68 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Sims7737200.320.05
Murray272,164740.230.09
White211,800420.230.04
Brophy8816310.190.06

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland292,5992010.470.13
Boyce7631130.360.20
Grant10965230.220.15
Lowry10733010.110.23

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.