Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Hearts 2–2 Ross County

Saturday 30 December 2023, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 21 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Alan James Muir · Attendance 18,288

Hearts Vargas 71', Shankland 79'

Ross County Cochrane 55' (og), Dhanda 61'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsRoss County
Goals22
xG1.871.54
Expected Points1.581.15

Hearts 44%Draw 26%Ross County 30%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Final score 2–2, 10%.

Ross County goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+2%4%4%2%4%4%1%5%4%1%3%7%5%3%1%3%2%12%9%11%10%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTForrest on for Denholm and Oda on for Tagawa, 46'Kingsley on for Halkett, 61'Vargas on for Lowry, 62'Brophy on for Murray, 69'Harmon on for Purrington, 78'Turner on for White and Loturi on for Sims, 82'Vargas 71'Shankland 79'Cochrane 55' (og)Dhanda 61'Hearts 1.87Ross County 1.5400.511.520153045607590HTForrest on for Denholm and Oda on for Tagawa, 46'Kingsley on for Halkett, 61'Vargas on for Lowry, 62'Brophy on for Murray, 69'Harmon on for Purrington, 78'Turner on for White and Loturi on for Sims, 82'Vargas 71'Shankland 79'Cochrane 55' (og)Dhanda 61'1.871.54HeartsRoss County

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsRoss County

1.87 +0.79xG1.54 +0.67
1.34 +0.19xG on target1.02 +0.19
20 +7Shots14 +4
7 +3.0Shots on target4 +0.6
1 −0.1Big chances2 +0.5
32 +7Touches in the opposition box22 +6
63% +8Possession37% −7
522 +72Passes303 −24
81% +6Pass accuracy68% +4
58% +6Field tilt42% −3
57 +17Final-third entries24 −5
16 +3.9Box entries13 +4.0
13.7 +1Passes per defensive action16.3 +1
9 +1.9Corners5 +0.1
11 −4Tackles22 +9
5 −1.8Interceptions10 +0.5
16 −6Clearances26 +2
3 +0.3Saves5 +1.3
14 +2Fouls14 +2
2 +1.2Offsides2 +0.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Forrest 65', 0.27 xGTagawa 14', 0.22 xGKent 45+3', 0.11 xGKent 9', 0.10 xGShankland 68', 0.10 xGKent 64', 0.08 xGTagawa 9', 0.07 xGShankland 59', 0.07 xGCochrane 24', 0.06 xGForrest 49', 0.06 xGForrest 65', 0.05 xGShankland 36', 0.03 xGNieuwenhof 6', 0.02 xGLowry 8', 0.02 xGAtkinson 11', 0.02 xGShankland 66', 0.02 xGNieuwenhof 44', 0.01 xGCochrane 46', 0.01 xGVargas 71', 0.39 xG, goalShankland 79', 0.15 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals88%1.63 xGCentral box: 12 shots, 1.63 xG, 2 goals3%0.06 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals7%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Ross County

Murray 19', 0.56 xGLoturi 90+2', 0.18 xGWhite 12', 0.11 xGSims 19', 0.11 xGLeak 30', 0.11 xGWhite 29', 0.10 xGBrophy 83', 0.10 xGBrophy 74', 0.09 xGDhanda 19', 0.05 xGSheaf 23', 0.04 xGWhite 50', 0.03 xGDhanda 2', 0.01 xGSheaf 50', 0.01 xGDhanda 61', 0.04 xG, goal12%0.19 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals69%1.07 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 1.07 xG, 0 goals6%0.10 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.10 xG, 0 goals11%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.17 xG, 1 goal1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsRoss County

1.66 17 shots, 2 goalsOpen play1.28 10 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.10 1 shot, 0 goals
0.21 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.16 3 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
76 min (76%) · Hearts 0.73, Ross County 1.42 xG
Ross County ahead
24 min (24%) · Hearts 1.14, Ross County 0.12 xG

Line-ups

282415132251819930ClarkKentHalkettRowlesAtkinsonDenholmLowryNieuwenhofCochraneShanklandTagawaYellow cardOwn goalGoal61'46'62'46'Hearts 3-5-2Steven Naismith14542310126112615LaidlawBrownBaldwinLeakPurringtonDhandaSheafAllardiceSimsWhiteMurrayYellow cardGoalYellow card78'82'82'69'Ross County 4-4-2Derek Adams

Hearts substitutes

  • 46' Forrest for Denholm · yellow card 51'
  • 46' Oda for Tagawa
  • 61' Kingsley for Halkett
  • 62' Vargas for Lowry · goal 71'

Ross County substitutes

  • 69' Brophy for Murray
  • 78' Harmon for Purrington
  • 82' Turner for White
  • 82' Loturi for Sims

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0110
KentCB900.290.1510.10109
HalkettCB610.000.0100.0639
RowlesCB900.000.0200.1085
Atkinson RWB900.020.0710.14124
DenholmCM460.000.0100.0001
LowryCM620.020.0420.0862
NieuwenhofCM9010.030.1730.2171
CochraneLWB900.070.3640.25122
ShanklandST9010.380.2410.1052
TagawaST460.290.131−0.0100
Forrest MF440.380.0200.2020
OdaFW440.000.0500.1241
KingsleyDF290.000.1810.0841
VargasMF2810.390.1010.0010

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0100.0340
BrownRB900.000.2000.2037
BaldwinCB900.000.0000.03510
Leak CB900.110.0000.0237
PurringtonLB780.000.0410.0835
DhandaRM9010.100.2040.18133
SheafCM900.050.0000.0305
AllardiceCM900.000.0100.02410
Sims LM820.110.1900.0148
WhiteST820.240.0110.1237
MurrayST690.560.0330.0211
BrophyFW210.190.1910.1600
HarmonDF120.000.1010.1611
TurnerMF80.000.0100.0310
LoturiMF80.180.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Rowles and Halkett: 5 passesRowles and Nieuwenhof: 5 passesHalkett and Cochrane: 5 passesAtkinson and Denholm: 5 passesCochrane and Nieuwenhof: 5 passesNieuwenhof and Lowry: 5 passesRowles and Denholm: 6 passesCochrane and Denholm: 6 passesKent and Halkett: 7 passesAtkinson and Cochrane: 7 passesCochrane and Lowry: 7 passesCochrane and Shankland: 7 passesNieuwenhof and Denholm: 7 passesLowry and Shankland: 7 passesClark and Halkett: 8 passesKent and Nieuwenhof: 8 passesHalkett and Nieuwenhof: 8 passesAtkinson and Lowry: 8 passesAtkinson and Shankland: 8 passesKent and Atkinson: 9 passesRowles and Cochrane: 11 passesKent and Cochrane: 11 passesAtkinson and Nieuwenhof: 14 passesClark: 15 completed passesRowles: 20 completed passesKent: 25 completed passesHalkett: 20 completed passesAtkinson: 28 completed passesCochrane: 32 completed passesNieuwenhof: 33 completed passesLowry: 19 completed passesDenholm: 14 completed passesTagawa: 5 completed passesShankland: 14 completed passes281524131985122309ClarkRowlesKentHalkettAtkinsonCochraneNieuwenhofLowryDenholmTagawaShanklandStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Ross County

Laidlaw and Purrington: 4 passesBrown and Dhanda: 4 passesBrown and Sheaf: 4 passesBrown and Murray: 4 passesSheaf and Allardice: 4 passesAllardice and White: 4 passesLaidlaw and Leak: 5 passesBaldwin and Dhanda: 5 passesLeak and Allardice: 5 passesPurrington and White: 5 passesPurrington and Murray: 5 passesSims and Murray: 5 passesDhanda and Allardice: 6 passesDhanda and White: 6 passesAllardice and Sims: 6 passesPurrington and Allardice: 7 passesBaldwin and Allardice: 8 passesLeak and Purrington: 8 passesPurrington and Sims: 8 passesBrown and Baldwin: 9 passesDhanda and Sims: 9 passesDhanda and Murray: 10 passesLaidlaw: 15 completed passesBrown: 16 completed passesBaldwin: 18 completed passesLeak: 14 completed passesPurrington: 26 completed passesDhanda: 21 completed passesSheaf: 9 completed passesAllardice: 25 completed passesSims: 18 completed passesWhite: 11 completed passesMurray: 11 completed passes14542310126112615LaidlawBrownBaldwinLeakPurringtonDhandaSheafAllardiceSimsWhiteMurrayStarters until 69' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
KentAtkinson12
KentRowles11
NieuwenhofAtkinson10
ClarkHalkett10
CochraneKent10

Ross County

FromToPasses
SimsDhanda5
BrownBaldwin5
MurrayDhanda5
DhandaMurray5
LaidlawWhite5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

8+2.89+1.315−0.86−1.73−1.79+1.35−0.65+0.54−3.16+0.55−0.26+1.39+3.41−5.42−2.02−2.52−1.35+1.70−5.20−1.52+0.44+3.02+0.93+0.60−0.90−0.92+1.41+0.20−0.80−7.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Ross County

4−0.712+4.320+7.38−2.64−1.312+4.08+1.79+3.55−2.86−4.22−3.050.09+5.96+1.610+4.16+0.84−0.25+2.72−2.35+0.10−2.93+1.31+0.33+1.44+1.70−1.50−0.50−1.10−0.51+0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.020.020.040.030.060.050.060.040.050.090.030.010.090.050.070.100.140.100.110.08−0.02−0.050.26LessMore

Ross County

0.010.030.010.020.010.010.010.030.020.030.010.040.020.030.01−0.010.040.030.190.060.050.030.01−0.030.010.110.36LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.26AttackHearts1.20 → 1.22Ross County0.97 → 0.99Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.27 → 1.28Ross County1.47 → 1.48

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six99%98%−1
Ross County
Top six6%7%+1
11th21%21%0
Bottom17%15%−2
Livingston
11th23%22%−1
Bottom46%47%+1
Motherwell
Top six5%4%−1
11th21%22%+1
Bottom16%17%+1

From the forecast before the match (30 December 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsRoss County
Expected goals1.680.88
Win56%19%
Expected Points1.920.82
Clean sheet42%19%

Hearts 56%Draw 25%Ross County 19%

Most likely score 1–0, 12%. Both sides score 48%.

Ross County goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%6%3%5%1%4%1%6%5%2%3%2%1%12%12%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 30 December 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawRoss County win
Hearts
Top six99%99%98%97%
Ross County
Top six6%4%7%12%
11th21%23%21%16%
Bottom17%20%15%9%
Livingston
11th23%23%22%22%
Bottom46%45%47%51%
Motherwell
Top six5%5%4%5%
11th21%19%22%23%
Bottom16%16%17%17%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W1–027 DecHibernian (A)xG 1.30–1.85
  2. W2–023 DecSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.20–0.64
  3. W2–016 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.34–1.60
  4. L1–29 DecAberdeen (A)xG 0.33–1.74
  5. L0–16 DecRangers (H)xG 1.03–2.53
  6. W1–02 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 0.73–1.16

Ross County

  1. L0–116 DecDundee FC (H)xG 0.90–2.43
  2. L0–29 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.62–0.94
  3. W3–05 DecMotherwell (H)xG 1.43–1.18
  4. W1–028 NovSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.66–0.24
  5. D0–025 NovKilmarnock (H)xG 0.88–0.65
  6. L0–111 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.21–0.69

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsRoss County
Position3rd10th
Played1917
Won, drawn, lost10–⁠2–⁠74–⁠5–⁠8
Points32 (1.68 per game)17 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.210.99
Goals20–⁠1515–⁠24
xG per game1.08–⁠1.470.87–⁠1.52
Home: points, xG per game1.56, 1.18–⁠1.331.22, 0.94–⁠1.28
Away: points, xG per game1.80, 0.98–⁠1.590.75, 0.79–⁠1.79
ManagerSteven Naismith (15)Derek Adams (5)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.26AttackHearts1.20, 3rdRoss County0.97, 10thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.27, 4thRoss County1.47, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHearts attack: 1.20Ross County attack: 0.971.200.97Ross CountyHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHearts defence: 1.27Ross County defence: 1.471.471.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsRoss County
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%+1%−21%+12%
Counter-attacks−23%−13%−62%+59%
Set pieces−11%+16%−36%+8%
Penalties−70%+52%−100%+2%
Headers−35%−3%−21%−11%
Left side−11%−2%−22%−2%
Centre−22%−6%−40%+25%
Right side−3%+33%−10%+9%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdRoss County concededLeft side−11%+9%Centre−22%+25%Right side−3%−2%Open play−15%+12%Counter-attacks−23%+59%Set pieces−11%+8%Headers−35%−11%

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdHearts concededLeft side−22%+33%Centre−40%−6%Right side−10%−2%Open play−21%+1%Counter-attacks−62%−13%Set pieces−36%+16%Headers−21%−3%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsRoss County

1.08xG0.87
1.47xG against1.52
55%Possession44%
12.7Shots10.0
13.8Shots against14.9
4.0Shots on target3.4
1.1Big chances1.5
25.2Touches in the opposition box16.3
450Passes326
75%Pass accuracy64%
7.1Corners4.9
52%Field tilt44%
39.9Final-third entries29.3
12.1Box entries9.0
12.8Passes per defensive action15.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.221.14
Ahead300.801.64
Behind161.222.01

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level550.831.14
Ahead131.561.73
Behind220.542.36

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.213–2
16–300.210.255–2
31–450.080.201–1
46–600.150.322–2
61–750.270.156–3
76–900.250.333–5

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.091–0
16–300.120.261–5
31–450.090.341–4
46–600.200.205–5
61–750.110.263–4
76–900.190.374–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTClark 19Kingsley 8Atkinson 5Sibbick 4Kent 19Halkett 1Rowles 19Forrest 5Oda 5Atkinson 4Nieuwen… 11NieuwenhofDenholm 4Oda 1Baningime 11Boyce 3Shankland 2Devlin 7Grant 6Lowry 6Cochrane 10Lowry 3Vargas 3Shankland 17Forrest 2Tagawa 2Kingsley 6Vargas 4Boyce 43-5-2 in 9 of 19 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (9), 4-2-3-1 (8), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Ross County

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLaidlaw 17Nightingale 10Smith 2Loturi 2Baldwin 17Leak 16Harmon 1Brown 16Randall 1Randall 15Turner 4Allardice 9Loturi 4Dhanda 2Purrington 9Harmon 4Reid 3Dhanda 11Sims 2Loturi 2White 14Brophy 2Murray 16Dhanda 1Sims 13-4-1-2 in 10 of 17 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (10), 4-4-2 (3), 4-3-1-2 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
30 September 2023Ross County0–1HeartsxG 0.40–0.98
22 April 2023Hearts6–1Ross CountyxG 3.68–1.59
30 October 2022Ross County1–2HeartsxG 1.44–0.65
30 July 2022Hearts2–1Ross CountyxG 1.78–1.54
30 April 2022Hearts0–0Ross CountyxG 1.46–0.27
2 April 2022Ross County1–1HeartsxG 2.62–1.80

8 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 5, Ross County won 0, and 3 were drawn. Goals 16–7 and xG 1.66–1.29 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyce7631130.360.20
Shankland191,7101100.400.14
Lowry9671010.110.25
Cochrane121,080030.060.24

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murray161,257410.230.07
White141,101300.210.04
Loturi8673100.180.05
Brown161,354120.080.15

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.