Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Hibernian 3–3 Aberdeen

Tuesday 26 November 2024, 19:45 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 11 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Calum Scott · Attendance 15,845

Hibernian Newell 40', N. Cadden 90+2', Bushiri 90+6'

Aberdeen McGrath 55', Devlin 76', Sokler 90+5'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianAberdeen
Goals33
xG2.211.61
Expected Points1.761.01

Hibernian 51%Draw 23%Aberdeen 26%

Most likely score 2–1, 10%. Final score 3–3, 3%.

Aberdeen goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+2%3%2%1%4%7%3%1%5%4%1%4%6%3%1%2%4%3%2%1%1%8%10%9%7%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTGayle on for Kukharevych, 64'Kwon on for Triantis and Campbell on for Hoilett, 75'Boyle on for Iredale, 84'Clarkson on for Nisbet, 46'Morris on for Keskinen, 54'Sokler on for Duk, 80'Milne on for Devlin, 83'Newell 40'N. Cadden 90+2'Bushiri 90+6'McGrath 55'Devlin 76'Sokler 90+5'Hibernian 2.21Aberdeen 1.6101230153045607590HTGayle on for Kukharevych, 64'Kwon on for Triantis and Campbell on for Hoilett, 75'Boyle on for Iredale, 84'Clarkson on for Nisbet, 46'Morris on for Keskinen, 54'Sokler on for Duk, 80'Milne on for Devlin, 83'Newell 40'N. Cadden 90+2'Bushiri 90+6'McGrath 55'Devlin 76'Sokler 90+5'2.211.61HibernianAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianAberdeen

2.21 +1.02xG1.61 +0.19
1.11 −0.03xG on target2.26 +0.64
21 +8Shots15 +2
4 +0.8Shots on target6 +1.7
2 +0.5Big chances0 −2.5
31 +10Touches in the opposition box30 +5
48% 0Possession52% −2
330 −9Passes355 −76
72% −1Pass accuracy74% −4
52% 0Field tilt48% −7
33 −3Final-third entries31 −6
10 +0.8Box entries17 +3.5
9.3 −6Passes per defensive action10.7 −2
9 +3.4Corners6 +0.3
15 +2Tackles23 +6
17 +10.5Interceptions9 +1.0
29 +3Clearances37 +6
4 +1.8Saves1 −2.1
14 +2Fouls10 −2
0 −1.5Offsides2 +0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

O'Hora 64', 0.28 xGBushiri 21', 0.23 xGCampbell 78', 0.13 xGHoilett 46', 0.12 xGYouan 61', 0.10 xGHoilett 69', 0.10 xGKukharevych 46', 0.09 xGHoilett 61', 0.09 xGN. Cadden 78', 0.09 xGNewell 90', 0.09 xGKukharevych 44', 0.08 xGNewell 46', 0.07 xGN. Cadden 50', 0.06 xGYouan 84', 0.05 xGYouan 13', 0.04 xGYouan 39', 0.04 xGNewell 40', 0.03 xGCampbell 85', 0.02 xGBushiri 90+6', 0.45 xG, goalNewell 40', 0.04 xG, goalN. Cadden 90+2', 0.04 xG, goal50%1.10 xGSix-yard box: 5 shots, 1.10 xG, 1 goal35%0.77 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.77 xG, 0 goals9%0.19 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals7%0.16 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.16 xG, 2 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

McGrath 12', 0.19 xGDuk 55', 0.17 xGNisbet 19', 0.14 xGDuk 55', 0.14 xGShinnie 63', 0.13 xGClarkson 72', 0.07 xGDevlin 19', 0.06 xGMcGrath 26', 0.06 xGMcGrath 52', 0.06 xGShinnie 73', 0.04 xGNisbet 45+4', 0.03 xGMacKenzie 73', 0.03 xGMcGrath 55', 0.30 xG, goalSokler 90+5', 0.12 xG, goalDevlin 76', 0.06 xG, goal9%0.14 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.14 xG, 0 goals67%1.09 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 1.09 xG, 3 goals2%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals22%0.36 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.36 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianAberdeen

1.32 13 shots, 2 goalsOpen play1.48 13 shots, 2 goals
0.89 8 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.13 2 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
65 min (64%) · Hibernian 0.94, Aberdeen 1.04 xG
Hibernian ahead
19 min (19%) · Hibernian 0.41, Aberdeen 0.57 xG
Aberdeen ahead
17 min (17%) · Hibernian 0.86, Aberdeen 0.00 xG

Line-ups

1323351519112679923SmithMillerBushiriO'HoraIredaleN. CaddenNewellTriantisYouanKukharevychHoilettYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoalGoalYellow card84'75'64'75'Hibernian 4-3-3David Gray123321346817119MitovDevlinRubezicMolloyMacKenzieShinnieNilsenKeskinenMcGrathDukNisbetGoalYellow cardGoal83'54'80'46'Aberdeen 4-2-3-1Jimmy Thelin

Hibernian substitutes

  • 64' Gayle for Kukharevych · 1 assist
  • 75' Kwon for Triantis
  • 75' Campbell for Hoilett
  • 84' Boyle for Iredale

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 46' Clarkson for Nisbet
  • 54' Morris for Keskinen · 1 assist
  • 80' Sokler for Duk · goal 90+5'
  • 83' Milne for Devlin

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SmithGK900.000.0000.0222
Miller RB900.000.0910.07310
BushiriCB9010.680.0200.0439
O'HoraCB900.280.0000.0327
Iredale LB840.000.0600.12811
N. CaddenCM9010.180.3530.0467
NewellCM9010.220.0110.0677
TriantisCM750.000.0100.0019
YouanRW900.220.3220.2193
Kukharevych ST640.170.000−0.0102
HoilettLW750.300.0320.0721
GayleFW2610.000.4410.1000
KwonMF150.000.0710.1920
CampbellMF150.150.0100.0211
BoyleFW60.000.0000.0000

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MitovGK900.000.0000.0001
Devlin RB8310.130.1010.1069
RubezicCB900.000.0000.02215
MolloyCB900.000.0000.0668
MacKenzieLB900.030.2130.32137
ShinnieDM900.160.0100.0229
NilsenDM900.000.0320.0437
KeskinenRW540.000.0910.0842
McGrathAM9010.620.0510.0073
DukLW8010.310.0110.0123
NisbetST460.180.061−0.0613
ClarksonMF440.070.060−0.0142
MorrisFW3610.000.3320.3063
SoklerFW1010.120.000−0.0101
MilneDF70.000.0000.0123

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Iredale and Kukharevych: 3 passesBushiri and Newell: 3 passesBushiri and N. Cadden: 3 passesTriantis and N. Cadden: 3 passesNewell and Hoilett: 3 passesNewell and Kukharevych: 3 passesYouan and Kukharevych: 3 passesSmith and O'Hora: 4 passesIredale and Triantis: 4 passesO'Hora and Triantis: 4 passesO'Hora and Newell: 4 passesHoilett and Youan: 4 passesIredale and Youan: 5 passesMiller and Hoilett: 5 passesMiller and Triantis: 6 passesNewell and Youan: 7 passesN. Cadden and Youan: 7 passesNewell and N. Cadden: 9 passesBushiri and O'Hora: 10 passesIredale and Bushiri: 11 passesIredale and Newell: 12 passesO'Hora and Miller: 13 passesN. Cadden and Hoilett: 13 passesIredale and N. Cadden: 20 passesSmith: 6 completed passesIredale: 31 completed passesBushiri: 17 completed passesO'Hora: 24 completed passesMiller: 16 completed passesTriantis: 12 completed passesNewell: 24 completed passesN. Cadden: 33 completed passesHoilett: 10 completed passesYouan: 13 completed passesKukharevych: 2 completed passes1315335226111923799SmithIredaleBushiriO'HoraMillerTriantisNewellN. CaddenHoilettYouanKukharevychStarters until 64' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Aberdeen

Nilsen and Shinnie: 3 passesNilsen and McGrath: 3 passesMitov and Devlin: 4 passesDevlin and Nilsen: 4 passesMolloy and Shinnie: 4 passesMolloy and Duk: 4 passesShinnie and Keskinen: 4 passesDevlin and Nisbet: 5 passesMolloy and Rubezic: 5 passesMolloy and Nilsen: 5 passesMacKenzie and Nilsen: 5 passesMacKenzie and McGrath: 5 passesMacKenzie and Nisbet: 5 passesDevlin and Rubezic: 6 passesMacKenzie and Shinnie: 6 passesMitov and Molloy: 7 passesMitov and Rubezic: 7 passesDevlin and Shinnie: 10 passesMacKenzie and Duk: 11 passesMolloy and MacKenzie: 12 passesMitov: 12 completed passesDevlin: 17 completed passesMolloy: 19 completed passesRubezic: 12 completed passesMacKenzie: 24 completed passesNilsen: 12 completed passesShinnie: 17 completed passesKeskinen: 4 completed passesMcGrath: 8 completed passesDuk: 9 completed passesNisbet: 6 completed passes122133364817119MitovDevlinMolloyRubezicMacKenzieNilsenShinnieKeskinenMcGrathDukNisbetStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
N. CaddenIredale13
MillerO'Hora10
N. CaddenHoilett10
O'HoraBushiri9
BushiriIredale9

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
MolloyMacKenzie12
RubezicMitov10
MacKenzieDuk9
ShinnieMolloy9
NilsenShinnie9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

9+4.910+4.519+3.811+3.56+1.74−2.63−1.54−2.08+2.24−2.46+0.86+2.95+1.64−0.59+4.35+1.03−0.54+1.53−0.35+0.42+0.13+2.02+1.21+0.15+2.92+1.50−0.30−1.10−0.20−0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

Aberdeen

9+5.210+3.724+6.65−0.514+8.38+2.95+0.63−4.45−2.35−1.27+3.73−0.74−2.06+0.25+1.12−0.93−0.15+1.87+2.93+1.02+0.81+0.10−2.10−2.81+0.43+2.91+0.60−0.61+0.51−8.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.020.010.020.030.010.020.040.030.030.01−0.010.030.120.08−0.010.040.030.050.060.170.16LessMore

Aberdeen

0.010.010.010.010.020.020.030.010.060.010.08−0.010.010.060.060.110.050.060.01−0.150.230.20LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHibernian1.18 → 1.20Aberdeen1.34 → 1.34Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.43 → 1.43Aberdeen1.31 → 1.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six8%6%−2
11th19%20%+1
Bottom27%28%+1
St. Johnstone
Top six10%11%+1
11th19%20%+1
Bottom22%21%−1
Ross County
Top six12%12%0
11th19%19%0
Bottom20%20%0

From the forecast before the match (26 November 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianAberdeen
Expected goals1.361.29
Win38%35%
Expected Points1.411.32
Clean sheet28%26%

Hibernian 38%Draw 27%Aberdeen 35%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Aberdeen goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+8%9%6%3%9%8%3%1%7%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 26 November 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawAberdeen win
Hibernian
Top six8%12%6%4%
11th19%17%20%21%
Bottom27%19%28%34%
St. Johnstone
Top six10%9%11%10%
11th19%20%20%18%
Bottom22%25%21%19%
Ross County
Top six12%12%12%13%
11th19%19%19%20%
Bottom20%22%20%19%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L1–423 NovDundee FC (A)xG 0.76–2.22
  2. L1–29 NovSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.28–2.18
  3. D1–13 NovDundee United (H)xG 1.09–1.31
  4. D0–030 OctRoss County (A)xG 0.50–0.50
  5. D1–127 OctHearts (H)xG 1.97–1.17
  6. L2–319 OctDundee United (A)xG 0.71–1.79

Aberdeen

  1. L1–223 NovSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.38–1.56
  2. W4–19 NovDundee FC (H)xG 1.81–1.89
  3. W2–130 OctRangers (H)xG 2.78–1.92
  4. W1–026 OctDundee United (H)xG 1.41–0.38
  5. D2–219 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.10–3.21
  6. W3–26 OctHearts (H)xG 0.69–2.02

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianAberdeen
Position12th2nd
Played1312
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠5–⁠710–⁠1–⁠1
Points8 (0.62 per game)31 (2.58 per game)
Expected Points per game1.171.34
Goals12–⁠2225–⁠12
xG per game1.19–⁠1.511.42–⁠1.48
Home: points, xG per game0.86, 1.33–⁠1.373.00, 1.69–⁠1.37
Away: points, xG per game0.33, 1.02–⁠1.672.00, 1.05–⁠1.63
ManagerDavid Gray (15)Jimmy Thelin (12)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHibernian1.18, 7thAberdeen1.34, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.43, 8thAberdeen1.31, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovHibernian attack: 1.18Aberdeen attack: 1.341.341.18AberdeenHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovHibernian defence: 1.43Aberdeen defence: 1.311.431.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−36%−10%+15%−6%
Counter-attacks−76%+140%−37%−49%
Set pieces+32%+15%+2%+34%
Penalties+44%−4%−48%+56%
Headers−20%+14%+19%+33%
Left side−21%−9%+30%+4%
Centre−24%+20%+3%+5%
Right side−13%+8%−4%−11%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdAberdeen concededLeft side−21%−11%Centre−24%+5%Right side−13%+4%Open play−36%−6%Counter-attacks−76%−49%Set pieces+32%+34%Headers−20%+33%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdHibernian concededLeft side+30%+8%Centre+3%+20%Right side−4%−9%Open play+15%−10%Counter-attacks−37%+140%Set pieces+2%+15%Headers+19%+14%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianAberdeen

1.19xG1.42
1.51xG against1.48
48%Possession54%
12.6Shots13.1
12.2Shots against13.7
3.2Shots on target4.3
1.5Big chances2.5
21.1Touches in the opposition box25.3
339Passes432
73%Pass accuracy78%
5.6Corners5.7
52%Field tilt55%
35.8Final-third entries37.3
9.2Box entries13.5
15.1Passes per defensive action12.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.121.25
Ahead170.991.76
Behind301.391.72

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level471.331.39
Ahead371.351.60
Behind62.471.37

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.211–2
16–300.130.251–4
31–450.270.153–4
46–600.150.222–2
61–750.310.174–0
76–900.210.491–10

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.192–0
16–300.170.133–3
31–450.260.403–3
46–600.250.156–0
61–750.210.255–3
76–900.320.366–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBursik 13Miller 10C. Cadden 3Ekpiteta 12Bushiri 1O'Hora 13Obita 13Kwon 9Campbell 2Moriah-Welsh 1Newell 9Triantis 5Boyle 8C. Cadden 3Youan 1Triantis 4Molotnikov 3Campbell 2Hoilett 5N. Cadden 3Molotnikov 3Kukharevych 7Youan 2Campbell 14-2-3-1 in 7 of 13 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 4-3-3 (4), 4-4-2 (2)

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMitov 12Devlin 12Rubezic 12Molloy 12MacKenzie 12Shinnie 10Palaversa 3Keskinen 1Nilsen 10Keskinen 8Morris 3McGrath 1Clarkson 5Gueye 4Sokler 1McGrath 10Duk 2Sokler 7Nisbet 4Miovski 14-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
12 May 2024Hibernian0–4AberdeenxG 1.03–2.33
17 February 2024Aberdeen2–2HibernianxG 2.93–1.46
3 December 2023Hibernian2–0AberdeenxG 1.73–3.86
3 September 2023Aberdeen0–2HibernianxG 0.98–1.23
13 May 2023Aberdeen0–0HibernianxG 0.30–1.95
28 January 2023Hibernian6–0AberdeenxG 2.60–0.52

16 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 7, Aberdeen won 6, and 3 were drawn. Goals 22–19 and xG 1.33–1.34 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kukharevych10823200.400.02
Boyle8768210.290.07
Hoilett7592100.090.25
C. Cadden6525010.110.07

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McGrath11861360.310.29
Sokler8630110.320.05
Keskinen9629320.130.05
Shinnie10925130.050.08

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.