Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Kilmarnock 1–0 Hibernian

Saturday 12 November 2022, 15:00 · Rugby Park · Round 16 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 6,391

Kilmarnock Armstrong 53' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockHibernian
Goals10
xG0.960.85
Non-penalty xG0.170.85
Expected Points1.491.12

Kilmarnock 37%Draw 39%Hibernian 24%

Most likely score 1–1, 29%. Final score 1–0, 27%.

Hibernian goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%7%3%11%3%5%4%2%27%29%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.7510153045607590HTStokes on for Dorsett, 81'Taylor on for Murray, 84'Alston on for Polworth and Wales on for Cameron, 90+2'Henderson on for Cabraja and McKirdy on for Kenneh, 61'Armstrong 53' (pen)Kilmarnock 0.96Hibernian 0.8500.250.50.7510153045607590HTStokes on for Dorsett, 81'Taylor on for Murray, 84'Alston on for Polworth and Wales on for Cameron, 90+2'Henderson on for Cabraja and McKirdy on for Kenneh, 61'Armstrong 53' (pen)0.960.85KilmarnockHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockHibernian

0.96 +0.10xG0.85 −0.44
0.17Non-penalty xG0.85
0.99 +0.41xG on target0.04 −0.93
6 −6Shots15 −2
1 −1.9Shots on target1 −4.1
1 0.0Big chances0 −1.3
14 −3Touches in the opposition box27 +2
47% 0Possession53% −6
344 −2Passes377 −48
61% −7Pass accuracy70% −10
39% −8Field tilt61% −6
31 −3Final-third entries30 −21
9 +0.1Box entries14 −0.6
15.6 +2Passes per defensive action10.8 +1
0 −5.0Corners5 −1.9
13 −3Tackles13 −1
6 −4.9Interceptions7 −0.2
28 +10Clearances25 +8
1 −2.4Saves0 −1.7
12 −1Fouls13 0
2 +0.1Offsides2 +0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

McKenzie 21', 0.06 xGMurray 23', 0.04 xGMcKenzie 50', 0.04 xGCameron 75', 0.03 xGWright 15', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals53%0.09 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals47%0.08 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

McKirdy 78', 0.16 xGHanlon 49', 0.15 xGMelkersen 48', 0.09 xGHanlon 76', 0.08 xGHenderson 82', 0.08 xGMelkersen 74', 0.07 xGMcKirdy 90+5', 0.06 xGStevenson 22', 0.04 xGKukharevych 9', 0.03 xGKukharevych 41', 0.02 xGMcKirdy 74', 0.02 xGHanlon 86', 0.02 xGCampbell 80', 0.01 xGStevenson 80', 0.01 xGPorteous 90+6', 0.01 xG8%0.07 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 0 goals67%0.57 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 0.57 xG, 0 goals22%0.19 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.02 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockHibernian

0.16 4 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.59 11 shots, 0 goals
0.01 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.27 4 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
53 min (55%) · Kilmarnock 0.93, Hibernian 0.33 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
43 min (45%) · Kilmarnock 0.03, Hibernian 0.53 xG

Line-ups

202193112247312715WalkerMayoWrightDorsettArmstrongDonnellyPowerMcKenziePolworthCameronMurrayGoalYellow cardYellow card81'90+2'90+2'84'Kilmarnock 3-4-3Derek McInnes11254332116162099MarshallCaddenPorteousHanlonCabrajaCampbellNewellKennehStevensonMelkersenKukharevychYellow cardYellow cardYellow card61'61'Hibernian 4-4-2Lee Johnson

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 81' Stokes for Dorsett
  • 84' Taylor for Murray
  • 90+2' Alston for Polworth
  • 90+2' Wales for Cameron

Hibernian substitutes

  • 61' Henderson for Cabraja
  • 61' McKirdy for Kenneh

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WalkerGK900.000.0100.0874
MayoCB900.000.0200.12145
WrightCB900.010.0000.0017
DorsettCB810.000.0000.0117
ArmstrongRWB9010.790.0620.1233
DonnellyCM900.000.0100.0014
Power CM900.000.0200.0327
McKenzie LWB900.090.0200.0242
PolworthRW900.000.0210.0563
CameronST900.030.0300.0413
MurrayLW840.040.0610.1223
StokesDF90.000.0000.0000
TaylorDF60.000.0000.0005
AlstonMF00.000.0000.0000
WalesFW00.000.0000.0310

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0000.0561
Cadden RB900.000.2110.3189
Porteous CB900.010.2120.1765
HanlonCB900.250.0610.1478
Cabraja LB610.000.0000.0035
CampbellRM900.010.0610.1035
NewellCM900.000.1320.0331
KennehCM610.000.0100.0102
StevensonLM900.050.091−0.0486
MelkersenST900.160.1210.0522
KukharevychST900.050.021−0.0521
HendersonMF290.080.1220.1531
McKirdyFW290.250.0100.0610

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Walker and Wright: 4 passesWalker and Mayo: 4 passesWalker and Cameron: 4 passesDorsett and Mayo: 4 passesDorsett and McKenzie: 4 passesDorsett and Donnelly: 4 passesDorsett and Murray: 4 passesArmstrong and Murray: 4 passesPolworth and Cameron: 4 passesWright and Power: 5 passesMayo and Donnelly: 5 passesArmstrong and Power: 6 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 6 passesWalker and Dorsett: 7 passesPower and Donnelly: 7 passesPower and Polworth: 7 passesWright and Dorsett: 8 passesDorsett and Polworth: 8 passesMayo and Power: 8 passesMayo and Cameron: 8 passesMcKenzie and Murray: 9 passesMayo and Polworth: 10 passesPolworth and Murray: 11 passesMayo and Armstrong: 13 passesWright and Mayo: 16 passesWalker: 10 completed passesWright: 23 completed passesDorsett: 23 completed passesMayo: 43 completed passesArmstrong: 14 completed passesMcKenzie: 12 completed passesPower: 25 completed passesDonnelly: 17 completed passesPolworth: 28 completed passesCameron: 7 completed passesMurray: 17 completed passes201932117422312715WalkerWrightDorsettMayoArmstrongMcKenziePowerDonnellyPolworthCameronMurrayStarters until 81' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hibernian

Hanlon and Campbell: 4 passesHanlon and Newell: 4 passesCabraja and Melkersen: 4 passesStevenson and Melkersen: 4 passesMarshall and Kukharevych: 5 passesCadden and Newell: 5 passesPorteous and Campbell: 5 passesPorteous and Newell: 5 passesHanlon and Kenneh: 5 passesKenneh and Newell: 5 passesStevenson and Kukharevych: 5 passesMarshall and Cadden: 6 passesCadden and Campbell: 6 passesHanlon and Cabraja: 6 passesCabraja and Kenneh: 6 passesPorteous and Hanlon: 7 passesHanlon and Stevenson: 7 passesCabraja and Stevenson: 9 passesMarshall and Porteous: 10 passesMarshall and Hanlon: 10 passesCadden and Porteous: 10 passesMarshall: 22 completed passesCadden: 20 completed passesPorteous: 23 completed passesHanlon: 26 completed passesCabraja: 20 completed passesCampbell: 11 completed passesKenneh: 16 completed passesNewell: 18 completed passesStevenson: 16 completed passesMelkersen: 11 completed passesKukharevych: 6 completed passes11254332611162099MarshallCaddenPorteousHanlonCabrajaCampbellKennehNewellStevensonMelkersenKukharevychStarters until 61' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
WrightMayo11
MayoCameron9
MayoArmstrong8
MayoPower7
PolworthMurray7

Hibernian

FromToPasses
PorteousCadden8
CaddenPorteous8
NewellPorteous7
HanlonStevenson7
PorteousCampbell7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

10+4.916+9.916+4.18+0.51−4.77+0.29+3.35−1.69+2.95−2.04−2.68+2.82−2.16+0.96+0.84−0.94−0.10−2.71−3.45+0.52−0.41−0.22+1.32−0.11−1.72+0.50−0.80−0.50−0.60−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 15 matches

Hibernian

7+3.79+3.99−0.56−0.510+3.35+0.54−2.12−2.48+3.07−0.78+3.13−2.33+0.67+1.715+7.73−0.24−0.21−1.85+0.76+1.31−1.54+1.90−1.01−1.14+1.51+0.30−1.01−0.20−0.61−0.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 15 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.080.050.010.020.040.030.010.030.050.010.01−0.02−0.020.010.09−0.02−0.020.120.13LessMore

Hibernian

0.020.020.010.010.020.010.030.050.010.010.020.120.060.04−0.010.030.140.030.030.120.06−0.27−0.090.080.250.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.22AttackKilmarnock0.97 → 0.98Hibernian1.18 → 1.16Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.35 → 1.32Hibernian1.11 → 1.11

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six3%6%+3
11th24%22%−2
Bottom31%22%−9
Hibernian
Top six68%59%−9
11th1%2%+1
Bottom<1%1%+1
Ross County
Top six3%4%+1
11th25%24%−1
Bottom30%33%+3
Dundee United
Top six3%4%+1
11th23%22%−1
Bottom25%29%+4

From the forecast before the match (12 November 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockHibernian
Expected goals1.061.18
Win32%38%
Expected Points1.261.44
Clean sheet31%35%

Kilmarnock 32%Draw 30%Hibernian 38%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 46%.

Hibernian goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%3%8%3%6%7%4%2%2%2%1%11%12%11%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 12 November 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawHibernian win
Kilmarnock
Top six3%6%2%1%
11th24%22%25%24%
Bottom31%22%32%39%
Hibernian
Top six68%59%67%78%
11th1%2%1%<1%
Bottom<1%1%<1%<1%
Ross County
Top six3%4%3%3%
11th25%24%24%26%
Bottom30%33%30%27%
Dundee United
Top six3%4%4%3%
11th23%22%23%23%
Bottom25%29%25%22%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–49 NovDundee United (A)xG 0.85–0.83
  2. L2–34 NovLivingston (H)xG 1.04–1.68
  3. L0–129 OctSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.38–0.39
  4. W1–022 OctRoss County (H)xG 1.10–0.70
  5. D0–015 OctSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.13–0.68
  6. D2–29 OctHearts (H)xG 1.68–1.17

Hibernian

  1. L0–28 NovRoss County (H)xG 1.14–0.70
  2. L1–44 NovAberdeen (A)xG 1.50–1.69
  3. W3–029 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.87–0.82
  4. L1–221 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.88–0.85
  5. L1–615 OctCeltic (A)xG 0.44–2.74
  6. L0–111 OctDundee United (A)xG 1.31–0.56

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockHibernian
Position12th8th
Played1515
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠3–⁠96–⁠2–⁠7
Points12 (0.80 per game)20 (1.33 per game)
Expected Points per game1.151.60
Goals11–⁠2718–⁠22
xG per game0.86–⁠1.181.29–⁠0.99
Home: points, xG per game1.57, 1.22–⁠1.261.75, 1.38–⁠0.79
Away: points, xG per game0.12, 0.55–⁠1.110.86, 1.19–⁠1.23
ManagerDerek McInnes (15)Lee Johnson (15)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.22AttackKilmarnock0.97, 9thHibernian1.18, 5thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.35, 9thHibernian1.11, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovKilmarnock attack: 0.97Hibernian attack: 1.181.180.97HibernianKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovKilmarnock defence: 1.35Hibernian defence: 1.111.351.11

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−36%−12%−1%−31%
Counter-attacks−48%−46%+18%+113%
Set pieces+19%+28%+21%−15%
Penalties−100%−27%−27%−27%
Headers+5%−25%+2%−29%
Left side−12%−13%+21%−25%
Centre−32%−10%−24%−20%
Right side−24%+13%+33%−21%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHibernian concededLeft side−12%−21%Centre−32%−20%Right side−24%−25%Open play−36%−31%Counter-attacks−48%+113%Set pieces+19%−15%Headers+5%−29%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+21%+13%Centre−24%−10%Right side+33%−13%Open play−1%−12%Counter-attacks+18%−46%Set pieces+21%+28%Headers+2%−25%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockHibernian

0.86xG1.29
1.18xG against0.99
47%Possession60%
11.5Shots17.4
12.5Shots against9.4
2.9Shots on target5.1
1.0Big chances1.3
17.1Touches in the opposition box25.0
346Passes425
68%Pass accuracy79%
5.0Corners6.9
47%Field tilt66%
33.9Final-third entries51.3
8.9Box entries14.6
14.0Passes per defensive action10.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level321.061.08
Ahead170.911.23
Behind410.691.25

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.021.13
Ahead171.520.63
Behind361.471.03

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.202–5
16–300.140.202–5
31–450.180.241–5
46–600.240.113–1
61–750.080.201–5
76–900.120.242–6

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.101–5
16–300.080.160–3
31–450.270.193–3
46–600.310.184–3
61–750.250.136–3
76–900.240.234–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTHemming 9Walker 6Wright 11Shaw 2Jones 1Taylor 14Dorsett 2Mayo 8Stokes 4Alebiosu 10Mayo 4Armstrong 1Power 14Polworth 4Armstrong 1Alston 4Donnelly 3McInroy 1Chrisene 5McInroy 4Jones 2McKenzie 8Chrisene 2Donnelly 1Armstrong 6Jones 5Shaw 3Lafferty 6Cameron 4Doidge 23-4-2-1 in 4 of 15 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (4), 4-4-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 5-3-2 (2), 3-3-3-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMarshall 15Cadden 11Porteous 4Porteous 10Bushiri 7Hanlon 13Cabraja 9Kukharevych 3Melkersen 1Kenneh 12Campbell 5Henderson 3Newell 7Boyle 6Cadden 4Melkersen 3Newell 4Campbell 4Cabraja 3Youan 6Newell 3Henderson 2Kukharevych 6Youan 4Boyle 34-2-3-1 in 7 of 15 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (3), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
3 September 2022Hibernian1–0KilmarnockxG 1.44–0.39
16 January 2021Hibernian2–0KilmarnockxG 0.68–0.64
24 October 2020Kilmarnock0–1HibernianxG 0.97–1.50
1 August 2020Hibernian2–1KilmarnockxG 1.18–0.70

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 0, Hibernian won 4, and 0 were drawn. Goals 1–6 and xG 0.68–1.20 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong10945420.180.18
Shaw7628000.250.02
McInroy6487000.100.14
Lafferty8576100.180.01

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kukharevych9654310.440.15
Boyle10936510.330.13
Youan10872130.210.14
Henderson8603120.200.09

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.