Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Kilmarnock 2–1 Aberdeen

Wednesday 28 December 2022, 19:45 · Rugby Park · Round 19 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 6,171

Kilmarnock Robinson 31', Wright 42'

Aberdeen Kennedy 90+1'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockAberdeen
Goals21
xG1.910.42
Expected Points2.440.37

Kilmarnock 75%Draw 19%Aberdeen 6%

Most likely score 2–0, 19%. Final score 2–1, 9%.

Aberdeen goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%3%9%2%9%2%12%5%1%5%2%1%18%19%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTMurray on for Robinson, 86'Stokes on for McKenzie, 87'Alston on for Polworth, 89'Besuijen on for Coulson, 38'Ramirez on for Duncan, 56'Watkins on for Barron, 77'Robinson 31'Wright 42'Kennedy 90+1'Kilmarnock 1.91Aberdeen 0.4200.511.520153045607590HTMurray on for Robinson, 86'Stokes on for McKenzie, 87'Alston on for Polworth, 89'Besuijen on for Coulson, 38'Ramirez on for Duncan, 56'Watkins on for Barron, 77'Robinson 31'Wright 42'Kennedy 90+1'1.910.42KilmarnockAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockAberdeen

1.91 +1.06xG0.42 −1.01
0.81 +0.18xG on target0.59 −0.99
17 +6Shots9 −3
4 +1.2Shots on target2 −2.2
4 +2.8Big chances0 −2.4
29 +12Touches in the opposition box13 −7
39% −7Possession61% +12
272 −70Passes444 +76
61% −6Pass accuracy73% 0
62% +16Field tilt38% −1
33 0Final-third entries35 −1
10 +1.6Box entries6 −3.9
15.2 +1Passes per defensive action12.9 −3
2 −2.3Corners6 +1.7
17 +1Tackles11 −3
18 +7.1Interceptions4 −4.9
20 +1Clearances19 −5
1 −2.1Saves2 −1.5
12 −1.1Fouls11 +1.2
2 +0.1Offsides0 −1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Taylor 15', 0.43 xGMayo 74', 0.22 xGArmstrong 54', 0.19 xGDoidge 20', 0.16 xGWright 24', 0.15 xGDoidge 37', 0.12 xGRobinson 8', 0.09 xGMcKenzie 24', 0.07 xGArmstrong 80', 0.07 xGDoidge 8', 0.06 xGDoidge 13', 0.04 xGMcKenzie 18', 0.04 xGMcKenzie 29', 0.04 xGDoidge 36', 0.04 xGWright 3', 0.02 xGWright 42', 0.10 xG, goalRobinson 31', 0.07 xG, goal42%0.81 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.81 xG, 0 goals48%0.91 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 0.91 xG, 2 goals4%0.08 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals6%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

Miovski 90+3', 0.09 xGMiovski 69', 0.06 xGRamirez 77', 0.05 xGMiovski 88', 0.05 xGRamadani 17', 0.04 xGRamirez 71', 0.04 xGDuncan 23', 0.03 xGScales 69', 0.03 xGKennedy 90+1', 0.04 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals40%0.17 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals12%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals40%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals9%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 1 goal

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockAberdeen

1.02 12 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.31 6 shots, 0 goals
0.07 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.81 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.11 3 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
31 min (33%) · Kilmarnock 1.17, Aberdeen 0.07 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
63 min (67%) · Kilmarnock 0.74, Aberdeen 0.35 xG

Line-ups

2019521172231332616WalkerWrightTaylorMayoArmstrongMcKenzieDonnellyPolworthChriseneDoidgeRobinsonYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoal87'89'86'Kilmarnock 3-5-2Derek McInnes24243338162322911RoosMcCrorieScalesMacKenzieKennedyBarronRamadaniDuncanCoulsonMiovskiDukYellow cardGoalYellow card77'56'38'Aberdeen 3-5-2Jim Goodwin

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 86' Murray for Robinson
  • 87' Stokes for McKenzie
  • 89' Alston for Polworth

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 38' Besuijen for Coulson
  • 56' Ramirez for Duncan
  • 77' Watkins for Barron

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Walker GK900.000.0100.0770
WrightCB9010.260.0200.05513
TaylorCB9010.430.0820.09310
Mayo CB900.220.0000.0333
ArmstrongRWB900.260.5040.47137
McKenzieCM870.150.0920.1233
DonnellyCM900.000.0810.0015
PolworthCM890.000.1010.0236
ChriseneLWB900.000.0320.1057
DoidgeST900.420.0510.0334
RobinsonST8610.160.051−0.0301
MurrayMF40.000.0000.0000
StokesDF30.000.0000.0010
AlstonMF10.000.0000.0000

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RoosGK900.000.0000.0560
McCrorieCB900.000.0100.0455
ScalesCB900.030.0000.04413
MacKenzie CB900.000.0100.0685
KennedyRWB9010.040.0510.0831
BarronCM770.000.0520.0331
RamadaniCM900.040.0100.0353
DuncanCM560.030.0200.0510
Coulson LWB380.000.0100.0243
MiovskiST900.200.010−0.0111
DukST900.000.0110.0062
BesuijenFW520.000.0000.0112
RamirezMF340.090.010−0.0100
WatkinsFW130.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Wright and Polworth: 4 passesWright and Donnelly: 4 passesMayo and Robinson: 4 passesArmstrong and Chrisene: 4 passesArmstrong and Doidge: 4 passesPolworth and Robinson: 4 passesRobinson and Doidge: 4 passesWalker and Doidge: 5 passesWright and McKenzie: 5 passesWright and Doidge: 5 passesArmstrong and Donnelly: 5 passesChrisene and Robinson: 5 passesTaylor and Polworth: 6 passesChrisene and McKenzie: 6 passesMcKenzie and Doidge: 6 passesArmstrong and Robinson: 7 passesMcKenzie and Robinson: 7 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 8 passesMcKenzie and Polworth: 8 passesArmstrong and McKenzie: 9 passesWright and Armstrong: 11 passesChrisene and Polworth: 12 passesWalker: 12 completed passesWright: 27 completed passesTaylor: 15 completed passesMayo: 12 completed passesArmstrong: 20 completed passesChrisene: 17 completed passesMcKenzie: 20 completed passesPolworth: 26 completed passesDonnelly: 13 completed passesRobinson: 14 completed passesDoidge: 11 completed passes2019521133731221626WalkerWrightTaylorMayoArmstrongChriseneMcKenziePolworthDonnellyRobinsonDoidgeStarters until 86' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Aberdeen

Scales and Kennedy: 3 passesMacKenzie and Coulson: 3 passesRoos and McCrorie: 4 passesKennedy and Coulson: 4 passesKennedy and Ramadani: 4 passesDuncan and Ramadani: 4 passesDuncan and Duk: 4 passesMacKenzie and Duncan: 5 passesMcCrorie and Kennedy: 5 passesMcCrorie and Barron: 5 passesKennedy and Barron: 5 passesCoulson and Ramadani: 5 passesScales and Ramadani: 6 passesMacKenzie and Ramadani: 6 passesRoos and Scales: 7 passesRoos and MacKenzie: 7 passesScales and MacKenzie: 9 passesScales and McCrorie: 9 passesRoos: 12 completed passesScales: 21 completed passesMacKenzie: 18 completed passesMcCrorie: 13 completed passesKennedy: 16 completed passesCoulson: 7 completed passesBarron: 8 completed passesDuncan: 9 completed passesRamadani: 19 completed passesMiovski: 6 completed passesDuk: 5 completed passes24432332282316911RoosScalesMacKenzieMcCrorieKennedyCoulsonBarronDuncanRamadaniMiovskiDukStarters until 38' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
WrightArmstrong10
ArmstrongMcKenzie8
PolworthChrisene7
RobinsonArmstrong6
PolworthArmstrong6

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
McCrorieKennedy17
KennedyMcCrorie11
ScalesMacKenzie11
MacKenzieScales11
ScalesMcCrorie11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

1−4.37+0.115+2.35−2.62−3.44−2.911+5.29+2.83−3.710+2.410+3.86+0.48+4.114+8.65−0.37+2.25+0.72−0.66+1.94−0.25+2.75+3.40−0.71−1.23+0.12+0.51+0.21+0.61+0.51+0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Aberdeen

6+1.44−2.716−1.97−2.73−3.110+4.43−3.13−3.25−1.613+7.02−2.810+5.42−1.45+0.78+2.55+1.62−2.42−0.80−3.93−0.32+0.70−1.52+1.21−0.21−0.90−0.80−0.31+0.61+0.91+0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.030.020.010.010.010.020.020.050.010.010.010.07−0.010.040.030.100.02−0.01−0.01−0.010.140.050.130.22LessMore

Aberdeen

0.010.010.020.010.030.010.020.010.040.030.030.010.020.020.03−0.020.010.010.030.02−0.020.020.05LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackKilmarnock0.96 → 1.01Aberdeen1.15 → 1.12Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.38 → 1.33Aberdeen1.29 → 1.32

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six2%4%+2
11th27%24%−3
Bottom21%14%−7
Aberdeen
Top six76%67%−9
11th1%1%0
Ross County
11th27%25%−2
Bottom45%50%+5
Livingston
Top six59%62%+3
11th2%3%+1

From the forecast before the match (28 December 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockAberdeen
Expected goals1.221.15
Win37%34%
Expected Points1.401.30
Clean sheet32%30%

Kilmarnock 37%Draw 29%Aberdeen 34%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 49%.

Aberdeen goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+6%2%8%3%7%8%5%2%3%3%2%1%10%10%11%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 28 December 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawAberdeen win
Kilmarnock
Top six2%4%1%1%
11th27%24%29%30%
Bottom21%14%22%29%
Aberdeen
Top six76%67%76%86%
11th1%1%1%<1%
Ross County
11th27%25%28%28%
Bottom45%50%43%40%
Livingston
Top six59%62%59%56%
11th2%3%2%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. D2–223 DecMotherwell (A)xG 0.34–1.33
  2. L1–317 DecHearts (A)xG 1.09–2.40
  3. W1–012 NovHibernian (H)xG 0.96–0.85
  4. L0–49 NovDundee United (A)xG 0.85–0.83
  5. L2–34 NovLivingston (H)xG 1.04–1.68
  6. L0–129 OctSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.38–0.39

Aberdeen

  1. L1–324 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.98–3.27
  2. L2–320 DecRangers (H)xG 0.54–1.58
  3. L0–117 DecCeltic (H)xG 0.06–2.36
  4. W1–012 NovDundee United (H)xG 1.18–0.32
  5. L1–28 NovLivingston (A)xG 3.34–1.29
  6. W4–14 NovHibernian (H)xG 1.69–1.50

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockAberdeen
Position10th3rd
Played1818
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠4–⁠108–⁠1–⁠9
Points16 (0.89 per game)25 (1.39 per game)
Expected Points per game1.101.30
Goals15–⁠3232–⁠30
xG per game0.85–⁠1.241.43–⁠1.68
Home: points, xG per game1.75, 1.19–⁠1.212.00, 1.81–⁠1.31
Away: points, xG per game0.20, 0.58–⁠1.270.78, 1.06–⁠2.04
ManagerDerek McInnes (18)Jim Goodwin (3)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackKilmarnock0.96, 11thAberdeen1.15, 5thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.38, 10thAberdeen1.29, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecKilmarnock attack: 0.96Aberdeen attack: 1.151.150.96AberdeenKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecKilmarnock defence: 1.38Aberdeen defence: 1.291.381.29

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−42%−12%−5%+14%
Counter-attacks−52%−50%+67%+6%
Set pieces+16%+36%−16%+27%
Penalties−73%−19%+117%+117%
Headers−1%−7%+23%−3%
Left side−12%−2%−25%+23%
Centre−40%−9%−1%−2%
Right side−30%+9%+9%+38%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdAberdeen concededLeft side−12%+38%Centre−40%−2%Right side−30%+23%Open play−42%+14%Counter-attacks−52%+6%Set pieces+16%+27%Headers−1%−3%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−25%+9%Centre−1%−9%Right side+9%−2%Open play−5%−12%Counter-attacks+67%−50%Set pieces−16%+36%Headers+23%−7%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockAberdeen

0.85xG1.43
1.24xG against1.68
46%Possession49%
10.8Shots11.8
12.8Shots against15.1
2.8Shots on target4.2
1.2Big chances2.4
16.6Touches in the opposition box19.6
342Passes368
67%Pass accuracy73%
4.3Corners4.3
46%Field tilt39%
33.3Final-third entries36.4
8.4Box entries9.9
14.3Passes per defensive action16.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level321.021.05
Ahead160.811.24
Behind410.741.40

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.221.67
Ahead291.701.24
Behind241.462.24

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.172–5
16–300.130.242–8
31–450.160.221–5
46–600.280.134–2
61–750.100.194–5
76–900.110.282–7

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.183–3
16–300.180.234–4
31–450.390.308–5
46–600.260.306–6
61–750.240.326–5
76–900.270.355–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTWalker 9Hemming 9Alebiosu 9Mayo 7Taylor 1Taylor 12Wright 11Mayo 6Stokes 4McInroy 6Chrisene 5Polworth 2Armstrong 6McKenzie 4Chrisene 3Power 16Armstrong 4Alston 4Donnelly 6Polworth 4Alebiosu 1Jones 6McKenzie 4Taylor 2Lafferty 8Doidge 4Armstrong 2Cameron 5Shaw 5Wright 34-4-2 in 4 of 18 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (4), 3-4-2-1 (4), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-4-3 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-3-3-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1)

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTRoos 18McCrorie 12Richardson 9Stewart 18Scales 14MacKenzie 1Kennedy 6Besuijen 4Barron 3Ramadani 18Barron 6Hayes 9McCrorie 6Kennedy 1Clarkson 10MacKenzie 2Coulson 1Coulson 7Clarkson 3Richardson 3Miovski 18Duk 10Coulson 5Besuijen 23-5-2 in 6 of 18 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (6), 4-2-3-1 (6), 3-1-4-2 (3), 4-4-2 (3)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
1 October 2022Aberdeen4–1KilmarnockxG 2.33–0.47
20 February 2021Aberdeen1–0KilmarnockxG 1.14–0.88
20 December 2020Kilmarnock0–2AberdeenxG 0.36–1.03
12 September 2020Aberdeen1–0KilmarnockxG 1.76–0.49

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 0, Aberdeen won 4, and 0 were drawn. Goals 1–8 and xG 0.55–1.56 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong131,203530.200.17
Shaw7628000.250.02
Stokes5453100.210.05
McInroy7533000.090.14

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miovski181,4661100.680.03
Duk10933720.400.04
Besuijen9766300.220.20
Kennedy7589110.100.22

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.