Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.
Match stats
HibernianHearts
0.99 −0.29xG0.89 −0.59
0.93 −0.23xG on target0.80 −0.44
11 −4Shots11 −1
3 −1.8Shots on target4 −0.1
1 −0.5Big chances0 −2.0
28 +6Touches in the opposition box25 +3
38% −17Possession62% +7
237 −172Passes406 −39
63% −13Pass accuracy75% −1
42% −15Field tilt58% +10
40 −4Final-third entries33 −1
13 +1Box entries15 +4
9.4 −2Passes per defensive action8.1 −6
5 −0.5Corners7 +1.8
24 +9Tackles20 +4
6 −2.8Interceptions4 −4.0
26 +6Clearances44 +26
4 +2.0Saves2 −1.3
14 +2Fouls8 −2
2 +0.3Offsides1 −0.2
The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.
Chance locations
Hibernian
Hearts
Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.
xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.
Game state
67'
0–01–0
0'HTFT
Level
70 min (72%) · Hibernian 0.93, Hearts 0.60 xG
Hibernian ahead
27 min (28%) · Hibernian 0.06, Hearts 0.28 xG
Line-ups
Hibernian substitutes
72'Campbell for Doyle-Hayes · yellow card 90+1'
75'Kukharevych for Nisbet
88'Miller for Newell
88'Henderson for Egan-Riley
Hearts substitutes
5'Atkinson for Smith · yellow card 77'
62'Humphrys for Forrest
74'Cochrane for Halliday
74'Kiomourtzoglou for Grant
Players
Hibernian
Player
Pos
Min
G
A
xG
xA
KP
xT
Prog
Def
Marshall
GK
90
0.00
0.00
0
0.05
6
1
Egan-Riley
RB
88
0.00
0.01
0
0.03
4
6
Fish
CB
90
0.00
0.03
1
0.05
2
7
Hanlon
CB
90
1
0.00
0.22
3
0.22
5
5
Stevenson
LB
90
0.00
0.02
0
0.07
6
4
Jeggo
DM
90
0.06
0.01
0
0.01
2
10
Cadden
RM
90
0.05
0.07
0
0.17
7
4
Doyle-Hayes
CM
72
0.04
0.04
0
0.08
6
2
Newell
CM
88
0.05
0.04
2
0.04
5
9
Youan
LM
90
0.40
0.00
0
0.09
5
4
Nisbet
ST
75
1
0.39
0.18
1
0.07
1
3
Campbell
MF
18
0.00
0.00
0
0.00
0
1
Kukharevych
FW
15
0.00
0.00
0
0.01
1
3
Miller
DF
2
0.00
0.00
0
0.01
1
2
Henderson
MF
2
0.00
0.00
0
0.00
0
1
Hearts
Player
Pos
Min
G
A
xG
xA
KP
xT
Prog
Def
Clark
GK
90
0.00
0.00
0
0.01
0
0
Smith
RB
5
0.00
0.00
0
0.00
0
0
Sibbick
CB
90
0.00
0.01
0
0.06
6
11
Rowles
CB
90
0.00
0.01
1
0.06
4
23
Kingsley
LB
90
0.13
0.03
0
0.07
3
4
Halliday
DM
74
0.11
0.08
1
0.04
2
4
Devlin
DM
90
0.00
0.01
0
0.04
0
3
Forrest
RW
62
0.14
0.02
1
0.01
3
1
Grant
AM
74
0.17
0.03
1
−0.02
1
6
McKay
LW
90
0.09
0.28
1
0.27
16
3
Shankland
ST
90
0.14
0.02
0
0.14
2
2
Atkinson
DF
85
0.00
0.06
1
0.11
6
12
Humphrys
FW
28
0.11
0.01
0
0.03
2
0
Cochrane
DF
16
0.00
0.00
0
0.01
0
0
Kiomourtzoglou
MF
16
0.00
0.00
0
0.01
0
0
Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.
Pass networks
Hibernian
Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.
Passing combinations
Hibernian
From
To
Passes
Doyle-Hayes
Cadden
11
Stevenson
Youan
6
Cadden
Doyle-Hayes
6
Stevenson
Newell
5
Egan-Riley
Fish
4
Hearts
From
To
Passes
Sibbick
Rowles
15
Kingsley
McKay
14
Rowles
Sibbick
14
Clark
Rowles
11
Atkinson
Forrest
10
The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.
Defensive actions
Hibernian
Against its average of 31 matches
Hearts
Against its average of 31 matches
Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.
Threat
Hibernian
Hearts
Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.
Ratings
The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.
League probabilities
Chance
Before
With this result
Change
Hibernian
Top six
76%
93%
+17
Livingston
Top six
24%
8%
−16
From the forecast before the match (15 April 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.
Pre-match
As things stood before kick-off.
Forecast
Measure
Hibernian
Hearts
Expected goals
1.53
1.11
Win
46%
27%
Expected Points
1.66
1.07
Clean sheet
33%
22%
Hibernian 46%Draw 27%Hearts 27%
Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.
From the forecast as it stood on 15 April 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.
League probabilities by result
Chance
Now
Hibernian win
Draw
Hearts win
Hibernian
Top six
76%
93%
67%
55%
Livingston
Top six
24%
8%
33%
43%
Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.
The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.
Season to date
Measure
Hibernian
Hearts
Position
6th
4th
Played
31
31
Won, drawn, lost
12–4–15
13–6–12
Points
40 (1.29 per game)
45 (1.45 per game)
Expected Points per game
1.40
1.28
Goals
47–51
50–47
xG per game
1.28–1.33
1.48–1.64
Home: points, xG per game
1.60, 1.43–1.27
2.07, 1.93–1.58
Away: points, xG per game
1.00, 1.13–1.39
0.88, 1.06–1.70
Manager
Lee Johnson (31)
Steven Naismith (0)
League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.
Ratings
This season
The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.
Strengths and weaknesses
Chances
Hibernian
Hearts
Created
Conceded
Created
Conceded
Open play
−4%
−12%
+12%
+30%
Counter-attacks
+53%
+31%
+37%
−59%
Set pieces
+7%
−12%
−8%
+35%
Penalties
−34%
+82%
+49%
−1%
Headers
+1%
−19%
−15%
+43%
Left side
−1%
−27%
−12%
+17%
Centre
−9%
−5%
+11%
+35%
Right side
+18%
average
+21%
+27%
xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.
Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.
Season averages
HibernianHearts
1.28xG1.48
1.33xG against1.64
55%Possession55%
14.7Shots11.8
12.0Shots against14.4
4.8Shots on target4.1
1.5Big chances2.0
22.0Touches in the opposition box21.7
410Passes445
76%Pass accuracy76%
5.5Corners5.2
57%Field tilt48%
44.2Final-third entries33.9
12.4Box entries11.3
11.6Passes per defensive action14.2
Per league match this season before kick-off.
Game state this season
Hibernian
State
Minutes per game
xG per 90
xG against per 90
Level
33
1.11
1.40
Ahead
23
1.57
1.26
Behind
34
1.23
1.30
Hearts
State
Minutes per game
xG per 90
xG against per 90
Level
32
1.82
1.38
Ahead
29
1.47
2.02
Behind
30
1.14
1.57
xG by period
Hibernian
Minutes
xG per game
xG against
Goals
1–15
0.18
0.15
5–12
16–30
0.11
0.18
5–5
31–45
0.27
0.22
10–6
46–60
0.25
0.29
7–11
61–75
0.21
0.17
11–6
76–90
0.26
0.31
9–11
Hearts
Minutes
xG per game
xG against
Goals
1–15
0.23
0.17
7–9
16–30
0.18
0.21
9–7
31–45
0.31
0.31
8–3
46–60
0.20
0.31
6–12
61–75
0.21
0.28
8–6
76–90
0.35
0.37
12–10
Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.
This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.
Digressive Celts