Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Kilmarnock 1–0 Motherwell

Saturday 4 November 2023, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 12 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Matthew McDermid · Attendance 5,553

Kilmarnock Cameron 49'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockMotherwell
Goals10
xG1.950.61
Expected Points2.350.45

Kilmarnock 72%Draw 20%Motherwell 8%

Most likely score 2–0, 17%. Final score 1–0, 15%.

Motherwell goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+5%3%11%3%11%4%10%7%2%4%3%1%15%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTCameron on for Vassell, 16'McKenzie on for Kennedy, 79'Slattery on for Biereth, 72'O'Donnell on for McGinn and Shaw on for Bair, 79'Cameron 49'Kilmarnock 1.95Motherwell 0.6101230153045607590HTCameron on for Vassell, 16'McKenzie on for Kennedy, 79'Slattery on for Biereth, 72'O'Donnell on for McGinn and Shaw on for Bair, 79'Cameron 49'1.950.61KilmarnockMotherwell

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockMotherwell

1.95 +0.61xG0.61 −0.51
2.71 +1.43xG on target0.27 −0.92
20 +5Shots11 0
8 +4.1Shots on target1 −2.9
5 +3.2Big chances0 −1.6
30 +6Touches in the opposition box21 0
52% +4Possession48% +3
343 −1Passes328 −32
62% −4Pass accuracy56% −12
54% +2Field tilt46% −3
42 +7Final-third entries32 −1
13 0Box entries10 −1
11.4 −4Passes per defensive action13.3 −2
9 +2.5Corners3 −1.9
8 −4Tackles14 −3
7 −0.1Interceptions5 −3.7
22 +5Clearances39 +17
1 −1.9Saves7 +4.9
9 −3Fouls12 −1
0 −0.5Offsides0 −1.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Watson 49', 0.27 xGCameron 60', 0.19 xGLyons 47', 0.09 xGWatkins 53', 0.08 xGArmstrong 65', 0.08 xGCameron 80', 0.08 xGDeas 84', 0.08 xGWatkins 49', 0.06 xGDeas 66', 0.06 xGArmstrong 9', 0.05 xGKennedy 32', 0.04 xGLyons 37', 0.04 xGArmstrong 44', 0.04 xGKennedy 45+2', 0.04 xGLyons 33', 0.03 xGFindlay 37', 0.03 xGArmstrong 24', 0.02 xGWatson 60', 0.02 xGArmstrong 73', 0.01 xGCameron 49', 0.62 xG, goal16%0.31 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.31 xG, 0 goals56%1.09 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 1.09 xG, 1 goal18%0.34 xGWide in the box: 7 shots, 0.34 xG, 0 goals10%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Motherwell

McGinn 59', 0.16 xGBiereth 45+3', 0.10 xGSpencer 14', 0.08 xGBair 2', 0.05 xGBiereth 8', 0.05 xGWilkinson 45+1', 0.05 xGSpittal 5', 0.03 xGSpencer 19', 0.03 xGSpittal 64', 0.03 xGPaton 27', 0.02 xGBair 51', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals77%0.47 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.47 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals20%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals3%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockMotherwell

1.57 12 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.40 9 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.21 2 shots, 0 goals
0.37 8 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
52 min (53%) · Kilmarnock 1.35, Motherwell 0.40 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
46 min (47%) · Kilmarnock 0.60, Motherwell 0.21 xG

Line-ups

1451761112810239DennisWrightMayoFindlayDeasArmstrongWatsonLyonsKennedyWatkinsVassellYellow cardYellow card79'16'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes11566201671222991424KellyCaseyButcherBlaneyMcGinnSpittalPatonSpencerWilkinsonBairBierethYellow card79'79'72'Motherwell 3-4-2-1Stuart Kettlewell

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 16' Cameron for Vassell · goal 49'
  • 79' McKenzie for Kennedy

Motherwell substitutes

  • 72' Slattery for Biereth
  • 79' O'Donnell for McGinn
  • 79' Shaw for Bair

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0560
WrightRB900.000.0100.0676
MayoCB900.000.0100.0676
FindlayCB900.030.0000.0775
DeasLB900.130.0230.0756
ArmstrongRM900.220.1230.27142
Watson CM9010.290.2740.1965
Lyons CM900.160.0400.0276
KennedyLM790.080.1740.2470
WatkinsST900.140.0310.2321
VassellST160.000.000−0.0500
CameronFW7410.890.0000.0912
McKenzieMF110.000.0000.0010

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0100.0452
Casey CB900.000.1010.2488
ButcherCB900.000.0000.0223
BlaneyCB900.000.0000.03215
McGinnRWB790.160.2410.4169
SpittalCM900.060.1600.0313
PatonCM900.020.0820.2147
SpencerLWB900.110.0000.0124
WilkinsonAM900.050.020−0.0114
BairAM790.060.0430.0017
BierethST720.150.0110.0130
SlatteryMF180.000.0100.0010
O'DonnellDF110.000.0100.0111
ShawFW110.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

Casey and Butcher: 4 passesCasey and Bair: 4 passesMcGinn and Spittal: 4 passesSpencer and Bair: 4 passesKelly and McGinn: 5 passesBlaney and Spittal: 5 passesBlaney and Bair: 5 passesButcher and Spittal: 5 passesSpencer and Paton: 5 passesSpencer and Biereth: 5 passesPaton and Bair: 5 passesCasey and McGinn: 6 passesSpittal and Bair: 6 passesWilkinson and Biereth: 6 passesBair and Biereth: 6 passesCasey and Spittal: 7 passesMcGinn and Wilkinson: 7 passesMcGinn and Paton: 11 passesKelly: 8 completed passesBlaney: 12 completed passesCasey: 18 completed passesButcher: 10 completed passesMcGinn: 22 completed passesSpencer: 12 completed passesPaton: 16 completed passesSpittal: 19 completed passesWilkinson: 11 completed passesBair: 17 completed passesBiereth: 8 completed passes12015661622127991424KellyBlaneyCaseyButcherMcGinnSpencerPatonSpittalWilkinsonBairBierethStarters until 72' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
DeasKennedy10
WrightArmstrong9
KennedyDeas9
LyonsDeas7
DennisMayo6

Motherwell

FromToPasses
BairBiereth6
McGinnPaton6
CaseySpittal6
SpittalCasey6
BierethWilkinson5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

2−2.213+5.77−3.99+1.88+3.66−1.14−2.811+4.370.04−1.54−1.91−3.05−0.44−1.58+3.52−1.64+1.13−0.16+1.74+1.84+1.80−0.82+0.42+0.10−0.40−0.31+0.20−0.41+0.43−5.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Motherwell

5−0.280.024+7.614+7.612+6.45−3.03−4.310+1.76−2.316+10.26−0.37+0.94−0.33−2.28+1.73−2.92−2.930.00−3.82−2.66+4.03+1.12+0.40−1.73+1.30−1.22+1.40−0.80−0.90−1.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.020.010.010.010.010.020.030.030.050.010.040.020.090.020.020.030.080.150.07−0.030.020.080.060.160.060.22LessMore

Motherwell

0.020.010.010.020.030.020.010.030.050.010.020.010.020.050.030.010.010.120.060.01−0.010.170.04−0.030.27LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackKilmarnock1.19 → 1.21Motherwell1.15 → 1.12Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.33 → 1.29Motherwell1.39 → 1.41

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six54%63%+9
11th4%3%−1
Bottom2%1%−1
Motherwell
Top six40%32%−8
11th7%9%+2
Bottom4%6%+2

From the forecast before the match (4 November 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockMotherwell
Expected goals1.501.06
Win47%26%
Expected Points1.671.05
Clean sheet35%22%

Kilmarnock 47%Draw 27%Motherwell 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

Motherwell goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%8%4%2%6%2%9%9%5%2%4%5%2%2%2%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 4 November 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawMotherwell win
Kilmarnock
Top six54%63%51%42%
11th4%3%4%7%
Bottom2%1%2%3%
Motherwell
Top six40%32%41%54%
11th7%9%6%4%
Bottom4%6%4%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–21 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.30–1.74
  2. W2–029 OctAberdeen (H)xG 1.85–0.29
  3. W3–121 OctLivingston (H)xG 1.21–1.13
  4. L1–37 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.54–2.75
  5. D1–130 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.73–0.79
  6. D2–223 SepDundee FC (A)xG 3.56–1.49

Motherwell

  1. L2–41 NovAberdeen (H)xG 1.44–2.24
  2. D3–328 OctRoss County (H)xG 2.34–1.92
  3. L0–27 OctLivingston (A)xG 0.06–2.59
  4. L1–230 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.82–1.68
  5. L0–124 SepRangers (A)xG 0.72–1.00
  6. L0–116 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.18–0.55

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockMotherwell
Position5th8th
Played1110
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠4–⁠43–⁠2–⁠5
Points13 (1.18 per game)11 (1.10 per game)
Expected Points per game1.411.11
Goals14–⁠1412–⁠16
xG per game1.34–⁠1.251.12–⁠1.50
Home: points, xG per game1.83, 1.09–⁠0.871.17, 1.42–⁠1.38
Away: points, xG per game0.40, 1.64–⁠1.701.00, 0.67–⁠1.68
ManagerDerek McInnes (49)Stuart Kettlewell (24)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackKilmarnock1.19, 6thMotherwell1.15, 7thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.33, 5thMotherwell1.39, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovKilmarnock attack: 1.19Motherwell attack: 1.151.191.15MotherwellKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovKilmarnock defence: 1.33Motherwell defence: 1.391.391.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−17%−30%−11%+11%
Counter-attacks−45%−17%−57%+57%
Set pieces+36%+34%−45%−17%
Penalties+11%+11%+22%+22%
Headers+51%−16%−56%+28%
Left side+17%−64%−23%+57%
Centre−17%+3%−15%−25%
Right side+1%+15%−38%+19%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdMotherwell concededLeft side+17%+19%Centre−17%−25%Right side+1%+57%Open play−17%+11%Counter-attacks−45%+57%Set pieces+36%−17%Headers+51%+28%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−23%+15%Centre−15%+3%Right side−38%−64%Open play−11%−30%Counter-attacks−57%−17%Set pieces−45%+34%Headers−56%−16%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockMotherwell

1.34xG1.12
1.25xG against1.50
48%Possession45%
14.7Shots10.9
12.0Shots against14.1
3.9Shots on target3.9
1.8Big chances1.6
23.9Touches in the opposition box21.3
344Passes360
65%Pass accuracy68%
6.5Corners4.9
52%Field tilt49%
35.3Final-third entries32.9
12.5Box entries11.3
15.9Passes per defensive action15.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.111.04
Ahead191.151.44
Behind251.901.48

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level520.951.01
Ahead110.502.69
Behind281.681.94

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.161–3
16–300.260.203–2
31–450.270.202–3
46–600.170.102–3
61–750.240.164–0
76–900.310.422–3

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.030.140–1
16–300.170.151–2
31–450.140.171–1
46–600.100.301–2
61–750.120.321–6
76–900.560.428–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 11Mayo 10Wright 7Deas 6Findlay 10Armstrong 10Mayo 1Watson 8Watkins 1Armstrong 1Lyons 11Deas 1Magennis 7Polworth 3Kennedy 1Kennedy 5Ndaba 5Davies 1Vassell 8Kennedy 4Watkins 8Findlay 1Cameron 13-5-2 in 7 of 11 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (7), 3-1-4-2 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Motherwell

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWKelly 10McGinn 9Mugabi 10Casey 10Blaney 1O'Donnell 10Paton 6Slattery 4Miller 5Spittal 4Spencer 1Spencer 7Souaré 2Miller 1Slattery 5Miller 3Paton 1Bair 4Wilkinson 2Slattery 1Bair 5Spittal 4Wilkinson 13-4-3 in 5 of 10 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (5), 3-5-2 (3), 5-3-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
26 August 2023Motherwell2–1KilmarnockxG 2.15–1.05
6 May 2023Motherwell2–0KilmarnockxG 1.67–0.43
25 February 2023Kilmarnock1–1MotherwellxG 0.75–1.24
23 December 2022Motherwell2–2KilmarnockxG 1.33–0.34
27 August 2022Kilmarnock2–1MotherwellxG 1.52–0.70
1 May 2021Motherwell2–0KilmarnockxG 1.00–0.93

9 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 3, Motherwell won 4, and 2 were drawn. Goals 12–12 and xG 1.07–1.20 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong11963340.340.40
Vassell8753500.380.09
Kennedy10907010.170.18
Watson8756110.100.13

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Spittal10900120.170.21
Slattery10837100.190.09
Bair9683200.180.04
Spencer8698010.070.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.