Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Kilmarnock 1–1 Motherwell

Saturday 25 February 2023, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 27 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Alan James Muir · Attendance 6,512

Kilmarnock Robinson 17'

Motherwell Slattery 90'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockMotherwell
Goals11
xG0.751.24
Expected Points0.941.73

Kilmarnock 20%Draw 33%Motherwell 47%

Most likely score 1–1, 17%. Final score 1–1, 17%.

Motherwell goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+12%10%4%10%10%4%3%5%4%1%16%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTLyons on for Power, Wales on for Robinson, and Alebiosu on for Chambers, 84'Slattery on for Cornelius, 65'O'Donnell on for Johnston and Aitchison on for Goss, 79'Mugabi on for Furlong, 90+2'Robinson 17'Slattery 90'Motherwell 1.24Kilmarnock 0.7500.511.50153045607590HTLyons on for Power, Wales on for Robinson, and Alebiosu on for Chambers, 84'Slattery on for Cornelius, 65'O'Donnell on for Johnston and Aitchison on for Goss, 79'Mugabi on for Furlong, 90+2'Robinson 17'Slattery 90'1.240.75KilmarnockMotherwell

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockMotherwell

0.75 −0.21xG1.24 +0.05
1.41 +0.77xG on target2.01 +0.98
8 −4Shots13 +2
3 0.0Shots on target7 +3.8
2 +0.7Big chances2 +0.5
25 +5Touches in the opposition box16 0
49% +4Possession51% +2
347 +14Passes352 −7
57% −9Pass accuracy55% −12
48% +3Field tilt52% +3
39 +5Final-third entries30 −4
11 +1.7Box entries11 +2.8
9.5 −6Passes per defensive action13.2 0
4 −0.3Corners6 +1.0
20 +4Tackles15 −2
6 −5.6Interceptions3 −6.5
25 +6Clearances18 0
6 +2.7Saves2 −0.6
17 +5Fouls15 +1
2 +0.2Offsides2 +0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Doidge 28', 0.17 xGDoidge 43', 0.06 xGChambers 74', 0.05 xGWright 17', 0.04 xGArmstrong 5', 0.03 xGMcKenzie 32', 0.03 xGMcKenzie 58', 0.01 xGRobinson 17', 0.35 xG, goal47%0.35 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.35 xG, 1 goal37%0.28 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.28 xG, 0 goals11%0.08 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals5%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Motherwell

Furlong 64', 0.33 xGO'Donnell 89', 0.17 xGObika 48', 0.15 xGObika 89', 0.11 xGObika 22', 0.08 xGCasey 61', 0.08 xGSpittal 45+3', 0.06 xGAitchison 83', 0.06 xGvan Veen 71', 0.05 xGFurlong 83', 0.04 xGGoss 19', 0.02 xGMcGinn 81', 0.02 xGSlattery 90', 0.07 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals40%0.50 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.50 xG, 0 goals40%0.50 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.50 xG, 0 goals19%0.24 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.24 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockMotherwell

0.12 4 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.49 8 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.33 1 shot, 0 goals
0.62 4 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.42 4 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
19 min (20%) · Kilmarnock 0.42, Motherwell 0.00 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
76 min (80%) · Kilmarnock 0.33, Motherwell 1.24 xG

Line-ups

201952113142472616WalkerWrightTaylorMayoArmstrongPolworthPowerChambersMcKenzieDoidgeRobinsonYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal84'84'84'Kilmarnock 3-4-1-2Derek McInnes1166652221827247999KellyMcGinnButcherCaseyJohnstonCorneliusGossFurlongSpittalObikavan VeenYellow cardYellow card79'65'79'90+2'Motherwell 3-4-1-2Stuart Kettlewell

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 84' Lyons for Power
  • 84' Alebiosu for Chambers
  • 84' Wales for Robinson

Motherwell substitutes

  • 65' Slattery for Cornelius · goal 90', yellow card 90+1'
  • 79' O'Donnell for Johnston
  • 79' Aitchison for Goss
  • 90+2' Mugabi for Furlong

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WalkerGK900.000.0100.0450
WrightCB900.040.0200.04410
TaylorCB900.000.1210.2046
MayoCB900.000.010−0.0187
ArmstrongRWB900.030.1420.18114
Polworth CM900.000.0420.0146
PowerCM840.000.0200.0343
ChambersLWB840.050.0100.0144
McKenzie AM900.050.0600.0454
Doidge ST9010.230.0220.0316
RobinsonST8410.350.2410.0522
LyonsMF60.000.000−0.0102
AlebiosuMF60.000.0000.0000
WalesFW60.000.0000.0000

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0220
McGinnCB900.020.0100.0345
ButcherCB900.000.0810.1058
Casey CB900.080.0100.0685
JohnstonRWB790.000.0700.0946
CorneliusCM650.000.0310.0531
GossCM790.020.0200.0435
FurlongLWB900.370.1100.1453
SpittalAM900.060.1720.0951
ObikaST900.340.0220.0412
van Veen ST900.050.010−0.0202
Slattery MF2510.070.0000.0101
O'DonnellDF110.170.0100.0310
AitchisonMF110.060.041−0.0110
MugabiDF00.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Walker and Doidge: 4 passesMayo and McKenzie: 4 passesArmstrong and Power: 4 passesPolworth and Chambers: 4 passesChambers and McKenzie: 4 passesChambers and Robinson: 4 passesWalker and Wright: 5 passesWalker and Mayo: 5 passesTaylor and Doidge: 5 passesWright and Doidge: 5 passesMayo and Power: 5 passesMayo and Chambers: 5 passesArmstrong and McKenzie: 5 passesPower and McKenzie: 5 passesMcKenzie and Doidge: 5 passesRobinson and Doidge: 5 passesTaylor and Wright: 7 passesArmstrong and Doidge: 7 passesPower and Polworth: 7 passesWright and Polworth: 8 passesMayo and Polworth: 8 passesPower and Chambers: 9 passesWright and Armstrong: 11 passesPolworth and McKenzie: 11 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 16 passesWalker: 12 completed passesTaylor: 20 completed passesWright: 24 completed passesMayo: 19 completed passesArmstrong: 18 completed passesPower: 27 completed passesPolworth: 32 completed passesChambers: 15 completed passesMcKenzie: 18 completed passesRobinson: 6 completed passesDoidge: 11 completed passes205192114312471626WalkerTaylorWrightMayoArmstrongPowerPolworthChambersMcKenzieRobinsonDoidgeStarters until 84' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Motherwell

Casey and Goss: 3 passesCasey and Obika: 3 passesButcher and McGinn: 3 passesButcher and Cornelius: 3 passesMcGinn and Spittal: 3 passesCornelius and Furlong: 3 passesCasey and Cornelius: 4 passesMcGinn and Goss: 4 passesCasey and Furlong: 5 passesJohnston and Goss: 5 passesCornelius and van Veen: 5 passesKelly and Casey: 6 passesCasey and Spittal: 6 passesGoss and Furlong: 6 passesSpittal and van Veen: 6 passesKelly and Butcher: 7 passesGoss and Spittal: 7 passesFurlong and Obika: 7 passesKelly and McGinn: 8 passesMcGinn and Cornelius: 8 passesFurlong and Spittal: 8 passesMcGinn and Johnston: 10 passesJohnston and Cornelius: 11 passesKelly: 13 completed passesCasey: 20 completed passesButcher: 11 completed passesMcGinn: 21 completed passesJohnston: 16 completed passesGoss: 18 completed passesCornelius: 17 completed passesFurlong: 18 completed passesSpittal: 16 completed passesvan Veen: 6 completed passesObika: 3 completed passes1526616222718247999KellyCaseyButcherMcGinnJohnstonGossCorneliusFurlongSpittalvan VeenObikaStarters until 65' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PolworthArmstrong11
WrightArmstrong9
PolworthMcKenzie6
PowerChambers6
WalkerDoidge6

Motherwell

FromToPasses
FurlongSpittal8
FurlongObika7
JohnstonCornelius6
McGinnJohnston6
KellyCasey6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

4−1.614+1.611+4.23−1.98+0.410+3.09+3.28+1.34−3.812+5.34−1.83−0.66+0.64−0.93−1.89+4.93+0.93−0.78+4.02−0.56+4.22+1.12+0.23+0.31−0.40−0.93+2.41+0.61+0.30−7.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 26 matches

Motherwell

3−2.06+0.416+4.18+1.45−0.78+0.67+0.83−2.89+2.310+2.35−2.03−2.51−2.36+0.310+2.94−1.33−1.04+0.73−1.23−2.31−1.72+0.43+2.13+0.71−2.20−1.10−0.51+0.20−0.40−1.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 26 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.030.010.020.010.010.010.020.030.010.040.020.030.04−0.050.04−0.01−0.010.080.090.080.10LessMore

Motherwell

0.010.010.010.010.010.020.020.020.010.020.010.010.020.040.060.010.010.03−0.020.01−0.02−0.020.070.110.120.09LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.24AttackKilmarnock0.97 → 0.96Motherwell1.02 → 1.02Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.42 → 1.42Motherwell1.38 → 1.36

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
11th30%32%+2
Bottom23%25%+2
Motherwell
Top six1%<1%−1
11th11%10%−1
Bottom4%4%0
Ross County
11th28%27%−1
Bottom47%45%−2
Dundee United
11th29%29%0
Bottom26%25%−1

From the forecast before the match (25 February 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockMotherwell
Expected goals1.321.04
Win42%29%
Expected Points1.561.15
Clean sheet35%27%

Kilmarnock 42%Draw 29%Motherwell 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 48%.

Motherwell goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+9%5%2%7%2%8%9%4%2%4%4%2%1%1%10%12%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 25 February 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawMotherwell win
Kilmarnock
11th30%25%32%35%
Bottom23%13%25%34%
Motherwell
Top six1%<1%<1%2%
11th11%16%10%4%
Bottom4%7%4%1%
Ross County
11th28%26%27%31%
Bottom47%50%45%43%
Dundee United
11th29%30%29%29%
Bottom26%29%25%23%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–218 FebHibernian (A)xG 0.82–2.94
  2. L1–34 FebLivingston (A)xG 1.12–1.45
  3. W1–01 FebDundee United (H)xG 2.71–1.37
  4. L0–328 JanRoss County (A)xG 1.38–1.74
  5. L2–318 JanRangers (H)xG 0.79–1.49
  6. L0–27 JanCeltic (A)xG 0.08–3.48

Motherwell

  1. W2–019 FebHearts (H)xG 1.33–0.94
  2. W2–115 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.48–0.46
  3. L1–34 FebAberdeen (A)xG 0.85–1.94
  4. L0–21 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.31–1.00
  5. L0–128 JanSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.40–0.60
  6. D1–114 JanRoss County (H)xG 0.82–1.23

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockMotherwell
Position10th9th
Played2626
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠5–⁠157–⁠5–⁠14
Points23 (0.88 per game)26 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.131.23
Goals21–⁠4631–⁠39
xG per game0.96–⁠1.371.19–⁠1.34
Home: points, xG per game1.75, 1.30–⁠1.110.92, 1.19–⁠0.99
Away: points, xG per game0.14, 0.66–⁠1.591.08, 1.19–⁠1.70
ManagerDerek McInnes (26)Stuart Kettlewell (2)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.24AttackKilmarnock0.97, 9thMotherwell1.02, 8thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.42, 10thMotherwell1.38, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebKilmarnock attack: 0.97Motherwell attack: 1.021.020.97MotherwellKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebKilmarnock defence: 1.42Motherwell defence: 1.381.421.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockMotherwell
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−32%+6%−18%+11%
Counter-attacks−38%−13%+16%+22%
Set pieces+19%+19%−4%−1%
Penalties−80%−19%+21%−39%
Headers+14%−7%−19%+21%
Left side+5%−4%+4%−4%
Centre−37%+12%−20%+24%
Right side−16%+15%−16%−5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdMotherwell concededLeft side+5%−5%Centre−37%+24%Right side−16%−4%Open play−32%+11%Counter-attacks−38%+22%Set pieces+19%−1%Headers+14%+21%

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+4%+15%Centre−20%+12%Right side−16%−4%Open play−18%+6%Counter-attacks+16%−13%Set pieces−4%+19%Headers−19%−7%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockMotherwell

0.96xG1.19
1.37xG against1.34
45%Possession49%
11.5Shots11.4
12.8Shots against11.8
3.0Shots on target3.2
1.3Big chances1.5
19.6Touches in the opposition box16.3
334Passes359
66%Pass accuracy67%
4.3Corners5.0
44%Field tilt50%
34.3Final-third entries34.3
9.3Box entries8.2
15.0Passes per defensive action13.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level331.041.14
Ahead161.151.17
Behind410.811.63

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.271.64
Ahead201.080.99
Behind321.161.19

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.203–8
16–300.130.252–11
31–450.200.224–6
46–600.280.195–6
61–750.120.184–7
76–900.120.323–8

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.242–5
16–300.150.255–6
31–450.230.235–5
46–600.220.229–6
61–750.280.194–11
76–900.230.226–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTWalker 16Hemming 10Mayo 11Alebiosu 11Armstrong 2Taylor 17Wright 17Mayo 9Stokes 6Chrisene 7McInroy 6Chambers 3Armstrong 11McKenzie 5Jones 3Polworth 10Armstrong 4Alston 4Power 20Donnelly 8Jones 1McKenzie 10Jones 6Taylor 3Doidge 9Cameron 5Robinson 4Lafferty 8Vassell 6Shaw 54-4-2 in 8 of 26 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (8), 3-4-2-1 (4), 5-3-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-4-3 (2), 4-5-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-3-3-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1)

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTKelly 26McGinn 17O'Donnell 5Johnston 4Johansen 18McGinn 3Mugabi 3Lamie 22Casey 2Penney 16O'Donnell 5Cornelius 2Slattery 12Cornelius 8Maguire 4Goss 19Tierney 1Morris 1Shields 10Spittal 4McGinn 2Spittal 7Goss 5Slattery 5Spittal 10McKinstry 8Goss 2van Veen 20Obika 2Shields 24-2-3-1 in 11 of 26 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (11), 4-3-3 (8), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
23 December 2022Motherwell2–2KilmarnockxG 1.33–0.34
27 August 2022Kilmarnock2–1MotherwellxG 1.52–0.70
1 May 2021Motherwell2–0KilmarnockxG 1.00–0.93
20 March 2021Kilmarnock4–1MotherwellxG 1.86–1.33
10 February 2021Kilmarnock0–1MotherwellxG 1.00–0.95
30 December 2020Motherwell0–2KilmarnockxG 0.40–1.78

6 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 3, Motherwell won 2, and 1 was a draw. Goals 10–7 and xG 1.24–0.95 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Vassell6482010.280.13
Armstrong191,725640.180.21
Shaw7628000.250.02
Jones11840000.090.16

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
van Veen242,1021110.500.08
McKinstry101,045410.160.16
Tierney4555200.200.10
Spittal241,823440.110.19

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.