Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Motherwell 1–1 Kilmarnock

Saturday 3 February 2024, 15:00 · Fir Park · Round 24 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 5,867

Motherwell Bair 38'

Kilmarnock Mayo 13'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

MotherwellKilmarnock
Goals11
xG1.140.24
Expected Points2.250.45

Motherwell 65%Draw 29%Kilmarnock 5%

Most likely score 1–0, 38%. Final score 1–1, 11%.

Kilmarnock goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+18%4%11%17%5%4%1%38%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTMiller on for Halliday, 77'Nicholson on for Zdravkovski, 89'Stewart on for Vassell and McKenzie on for Armstrong, 68'Mackay-Steven on for Kennedy, van Veen on for Watkins, and Donnelly on for Polworth, 86'Bair 38'Mayo 13'Motherwell 1.14Kilmarnock 0.2400.511.50153045607590HTMiller on for Halliday, 77'Nicholson on for Zdravkovski, 89'Stewart on for Vassell and McKenzie on for Armstrong, 68'Mackay-Steven on for Kennedy, van Veen on for Watkins, and Donnelly on for Polworth, 86'Bair 38'Mayo 13'1.140.24MotherwellKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

MotherwellKilmarnock

1.14 +0.03xG0.24 −1.01
1.01 −0.18xG on target0.42 −0.78
11 +1Shots3 −10
4 +0.5Shots on target1 −2.6
1 −0.9Big chances1 −0.8
22 +3Touches in the opposition box9 −14
54% +9Possession46% 0
322 −26Passes276 −57
67% +2Pass accuracy62% −3
55% +9Field tilt45% −5
42 +12Final-third entries29 −5
12 +2.6Box entries5 −6.8
12.1 −3Passes per defensive action12.5 −2
6 +1.7Corners5 −1.5
22 +6Tackles12 −1
4 −3.9Interceptions6 −0.9
25 +3Clearances38 +18
0 −2.4Saves3 +0.1
11 −1Fouls15 +3
3 +1.8Offsides0 −1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Motherwell

O'Donnell 76', 0.11 xGSpittal 5', 0.07 xGSpittal 25', 0.07 xGBair 78', 0.07 xGHalliday 49', 0.04 xGSpittal 36', 0.03 xGPaton 73', 0.03 xGPaton 81', 0.03 xGGent 90+1', 0.03 xGGent 32', 0.02 xGBair 38', 0.65 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals78%0.89 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.89 xG, 1 goal4%0.05 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals18%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Mayo 74', 0.17 xGStewart 76', 0.04 xGMayo 13', 0.03 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals71%0.17 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.17 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals29%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

MotherwellKilmarnock

0.33 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.04 1 shot, 0 goals
0.65 1 shot, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.16 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.20 2 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
70 min (74%) · Motherwell 0.36, Kilmarnock 0.24 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
25 min (26%) · Motherwell 0.78, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG

Line-ups

12566163121711714KellyO'DonnellMugabiButcherMcGinnGentPatonZdravkovskiHallidaySpittalBairYellow cardYellow cardGoal89'77'Motherwell 5-4-1Stuart Kettlewell154171911123110239DennisMayoWrightFindlayDaviesArmstrongWatsonPolworthKennedyWatkinsVassellGoalYellow cardYellow cardYellow card68'86'86'86'68'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes

Motherwell substitutes

  • 77' Miller for Halliday
  • 89' Nicholson for Zdravkovski

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 68' Stewart for Vassell · yellow card 80'
  • 68' McKenzie for Armstrong
  • 86' Mackay-Steven for Kennedy
  • 86' Donnelly for Polworth
  • 86' van Veen for Watkins · yellow card 90+5'

Players

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0660
O'DonnellRWB900.110.0310.0378
MugabiCB900.000.0110.0439
Butcher CB900.000.0300.1298
McGinnCB900.000.0510.1143
GentLWB900.050.2300.20910
PatonRM900.050.0300.0166
ZdravkovskiCM890.000.0810.0923
HallidayCM770.040.0300.0522
Spittal LM9010.170.3620.0890
BairST9010.720.1020.0953
MillerMF130.000.0000.0000
NicholsonDF10.000.0000.0000

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0100.0761
MayoRB9010.200.0300.2073
Wright CB900.000.0000.01214
Findlay CB900.000.0000.03311
DaviesLB900.000.0100.0124
Armstrong RM680.000.0100.0131
WatsonCM900.000.0100.0007
PolworthCM860.000.0300.0745
KennedyLM860.000.0300.1064
WatkinsST860.000.041−0.0815
VassellST680.000.000−0.0300
Stewart MF220.040.0610.0010
McKenzieMF220.000.0000.0211
Mackay-StevenDF40.000.0000.0000
DonnellyMF40.000.0000.0113
van Veen FW40.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

Mugabi and Zdravkovski: 4 passesMugabi and Halliday: 4 passesButcher and McGinn: 4 passesButcher and Zdravkovski: 4 passesKelly and Mugabi: 5 passesO'Donnell and Spittal: 5 passesMcGinn and Spittal: 5 passesGent and Halliday: 5 passesKelly and O'Donnell: 6 passesO'Donnell and Bair: 6 passesButcher and Spittal: 6 passesMcGinn and Paton: 6 passesMcGinn and Bair: 6 passesGent and Paton: 6 passesZdravkovski and Spittal: 6 passesO'Donnell and Mugabi: 7 passesPaton and Spittal: 7 passesO'Donnell and Paton: 8 passesMcGinn and Gent: 8 passesHalliday and Spittal: 8 passesO'Donnell and Zdravkovski: 9 passesKelly and Butcher: 10 passesPaton and Bair: 11 passesGent and Spittal: 13 passesSpittal and Bair: 13 passesKelly: 14 completed passesO'Donnell: 23 completed passesMugabi: 12 completed passesButcher: 22 completed passesMcGinn: 21 completed passesGent: 23 completed passesPaton: 19 completed passesZdravkovski: 19 completed passesHalliday: 15 completed passesSpittal: 28 completed passesBair: 21 completed passes12566163121711714KellyO'DonnellMugabiButcherMcGinnGentPatonZdravkovskiHallidaySpittalBairStarters until 77' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Kilmarnock

Dennis and Watkins: 3 passesMayo and Wright: 3 passesDavies and Polworth: 3 passesDavies and Vassell: 3 passesPolworth and Watkins: 3 passesPolworth and Vassell: 3 passesWatson and Vassell: 3 passesKennedy and Watkins: 3 passesMayo and Polworth: 4 passesArmstrong and Watson: 4 passesDennis and Wright: 5 passesDennis and Vassell: 5 passesFindlay and Davies: 6 passesFindlay and Polworth: 6 passesArmstrong and Vassell: 6 passesPolworth and Watson: 6 passesPolworth and Kennedy: 6 passesDennis and Findlay: 7 passesWright and Findlay: 7 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 8 passesMayo and Armstrong: 9 passesMayo and Watkins: 9 passesDennis: 15 completed passesMayo: 18 completed passesWright: 12 completed passesFindlay: 16 completed passesDavies: 9 completed passesArmstrong: 10 completed passesPolworth: 22 completed passesWatson: 9 completed passesKennedy: 7 completed passesWatkins: 7 completed passesVassell: 9 completed passes154171911311210239DennisMayoWrightFindlayDaviesArmstrongPolworthWatsonKennedyWatkinsVassellStarters until 68' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Motherwell

FromToPasses
BairPaton10
PatonSpittal9
BairSpittal9
O'DonnellPaton8
GentSpittal8

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
MayoWatkins9
PolworthFindlay6
WrightFindlay5
FindlayPolworth5
PolworthKennedy5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Motherwell

4−0.96−1.112+4.75−0.912+5.14−3.08+1.112+5.35−0.31−4.53−0.92−3.410+2.64−1.44−0.11−2.02−1.21−3.50−2.120.01−0.22+0.44+1.21−0.10−0.50−0.80−0.60−0.810−5.71−6.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 22 matches

Kilmarnock

4−0.64−3.317+5.015+7.56+1.670.04−3.55−0.82−3.87+0.45−0.92−3.13−0.73−0.97+1.73−2.42−1.82−0.84+0.62−2.53−0.10−2.01+0.24+2.33+0.62+1.10−0.30−1.00−0.20−0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 23 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Motherwell

0.010.010.010.020.030.040.010.020.020.050.030.030.020.080.010.020.020.07−0.02−0.020.010.060.04−0.040.110.120.13LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.020.020.020.020.020.010.050.010.010.010.040.030.040.010.020.01−0.03−0.020.01−0.010.050.10LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.28AttackMotherwell1.11 → 1.13Kilmarnock1.17 → 1.14Defence (lower is better)Motherwell1.39 → 1.36Kilmarnock1.25 → 1.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
Top six9%7%−2
11th13%14%+1
Bottom4%4%0
Kilmarnock
Top six90%90%0
Ross County
11th33%32%−1
Bottom15%16%+1
Hibernian
Top six47%46%−1
11th3%2%−1

From the forecast before the match (3 February 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

MotherwellKilmarnock
Expected goals1.291.16
Win39%33%
Expected Points1.451.27
Clean sheet31%28%

Motherwell 39%Draw 29%Kilmarnock 33%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 50%.

Kilmarnock goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+9%9%6%2%8%3%7%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 3 February 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowMotherwell winDrawKilmarnock win
Motherwell
Top six9%15%7%4%
11th13%8%14%17%
Bottom4%2%4%5%
Kilmarnock
Top six90%84%90%96%
Ross County
11th33%35%32%30%
Bottom15%15%16%15%
Hibernian
Top six47%49%46%45%
11th3%3%2%3%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Motherwell

  1. D1–127 JanSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.87–0.82
  2. D2–22 JanHibernian (A)xG 1.55–0.72
  3. W3–130 DecLivingston (H)xG 1.48–0.94
  4. L0–224 DecRangers (H)xG 0.34–1.37
  5. D0–016 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.00–1.25
  6. D1–19 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.21–1.33

Kilmarnock

  1. D2–227 JanHibernian (H)xG 1.69–1.58
  2. L1–32 JanRangers (A)xG 1.55–2.27
  3. D2–230 DecDundee FC (H)xG 0.69–0.53
  4. W1–027 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.81–0.46
  5. W2–123 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.37–1.37
  6. D0–016 DecLivingston (A)xG 0.88–1.14

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellKilmarnock
Position9th4th
Played2223
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠9–⁠98–⁠8–⁠7
Points21 (0.95 per game)32 (1.39 per game)
Expected Points per game1.131.40
Goals26–⁠3526–⁠25
xG per game1.11–⁠1.481.25–⁠1.15
Home: points, xG per game1.09, 1.23–⁠1.421.83, 1.29–⁠0.98
Away: points, xG per game0.82, 1.00–⁠1.550.91, 1.20–⁠1.35
ManagerStuart Kettlewell (36)Derek McInnes (61)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.28AttackMotherwell1.11, 7thKilmarnock1.17, 5thDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.39, 8thKilmarnock1.25, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanMotherwell attack: 1.11Kilmarnock attack: 1.171.171.11KilmarnockMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanMotherwell defence: 1.39Kilmarnock defence: 1.251.391.25

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−10%+13%−16%−19%
Counter-attacks−40%−19%−13%+3%
Set pieces−22%+8%+25%+1%
Penalties−28%+19%−31%−31%
Headers−10%+36%+30%−14%
Left side−21%+34%+3%−25%
Centre−1%+5%−11%−12%
Right side−41%−10%+1%+2%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−21%+2%Centre−1%−12%Right side−41%−25%Open play−10%−19%Counter-attacks−40%+3%Set pieces−22%+1%Headers−10%−14%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdMotherwell concededLeft side+3%−10%Centre−11%+5%Right side+1%+34%Open play−16%+13%Counter-attacks−13%−19%Set pieces+25%+8%Headers+30%+36%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellKilmarnock

1.11xG1.25
1.48xG against1.15
45%Possession46%
10.4Shots13.4
13.6Shots against12.1
3.5Shots on target3.6
1.9Big chances1.8
18.8Touches in the opposition box22.5
348Passes333
65%Pass accuracy64%
4.3Corners6.5
46%Field tilt50%
30.3Final-third entries33.6
9.4Box entries11.8
15.2Passes per defensive action14.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level460.981.47
Ahead110.461.80
Behind331.511.40

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.071.05
Ahead201.301.30
Behind241.561.24

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.132–4
16–300.120.233–10
31–450.170.203–2
46–600.090.341–5
61–750.280.255–7
76–900.360.3312–7

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.132–3
16–300.260.156–3
31–450.200.212–8
46–600.250.085–3
61–750.150.245–3
76–900.290.356–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWKelly 22McGinn 12O'Donnell 5Mugabi 18Butcher 4Casey 16Blaney 11O'Donnell 15Spencer 5McGinn 1Paton 13Slattery 9Wilkinson 2Spittal 9Miller 5Zdravkovski 3Spencer 10Gent 3Paton 2Slattery 8Spittal 3Gent 3Bair 8Biereth 6Wilkinson 3Bair 7Spittal 6Biereth 43-4-3 in 6 of 22 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (6), 3-4-2-1 (4), 3-5-2 (4), 3-1-4-2 (3), 3-5-1-1 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 5-4-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 22O'Hara 1Mayo 22Wright 13Deas 12Findlay 22Armstro… 22ArmstrongMayo 1Lyons 20Watkins 1Armstrong 1Watson 18Donnelly 6Deas 3Polworth 7Magennis 7McKenzie 3Kennedy 12Ndaba 9Deas 1Watkins 18Kennedy 4Vassell 18Ndaba 2Findlay 13-5-2 in 12 of 23 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (12), 4-4-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (2), 4-5-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
4 November 2023Kilmarnock1–0MotherwellxG 1.95–0.61
26 August 2023Motherwell2–1KilmarnockxG 2.15–1.05
6 May 2023Motherwell2–0KilmarnockxG 1.67–0.43
25 February 2023Kilmarnock1–1MotherwellxG 0.75–1.24
23 December 2022Motherwell2–2KilmarnockxG 1.33–0.34
27 August 2022Kilmarnock2–1MotherwellxG 1.52–0.70

10 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 4, Kilmarnock won 4, and 2 were drawn. Goals 12–13 and xG 1.14–1.16 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Biereth111,022650.360.22
Spittal221,980360.170.22
Bair151,220620.260.07
Wilkinson7648310.160.12

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong231,977480.260.31
Vassell181,571500.310.07
Kennedy171,576230.190.18
Watson181,702320.120.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.