Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Motherwell 2–1 Kilmarnock

Saturday 26 August 2023, 15:00 · Fir Park · Round 3 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Chris Graham · Attendance 5,758

Motherwell Casey 59', Paton 90+8'

Kilmarnock Watkins 12'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

MotherwellKilmarnock
Goals21
xG2.151.05
Non-penalty xG1.361.05
Expected Points2.180.60

Motherwell 65%Draw 22%Kilmarnock 13%

Most likely score 2–1, 14%. Final score 2–1, 14%.

Kilmarnock goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+2%2%8%5%1%8%2%8%9%5%2%3%3%2%11%11%14%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTPaton on for Efford, 46'McKenzie on for Armstrong, 78'Cameron on for Vassell, 90+1'Casey 59'Paton 90+8'Watkins 12'Motherwell 2.15Kilmarnock 1.0501230153045607590HTPaton on for Efford, 46'McKenzie on for Armstrong, 78'Cameron on for Vassell, 90+1'Casey 59'Paton 90+8'Watkins 12'2.151.05MotherwellKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

MotherwellKilmarnock

2.15 +1.47xG1.05 +0.43
1.36Non-penalty xG1.05
3.45 +2.54xG on target1.94 +1.05
13 +2Shots12 0
7 +4.0Shots on target3 −0.5
4 +3.0Big chances3 +2.5
20Touches in the opposition box29 +9
51% −2Possession49% +15
380 +5Passes361 +80
66% −5Pass accuracy64% +2
45% −17Field tilt55% +19
37 +9Final-third entries31 −2
7 −1.5Box entries14 +3.0
11.7 +1Passes per defensive action11.3 −8
1 −7.5Corners6 +2.5
18 0Tackles8 −10
13 +7.0Interceptions7 −4.0
25 +2Clearances17 −6
2 +2.0Saves5 +2.5
15 +2Fouls19 +8
2 +0.5Offsides0 −0.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Motherwell

Spencer 45', 0.26 xGBair 49', 0.14 xGSpittal 28', 0.10 xGMiller 64', 0.05 xGSpittal 90+5', 0.05 xGSpencer 73', 0.04 xGMcGinn 21', 0.03 xGSpittal 90+6', 0.03 xGSpencer 39', 0.02 xGMcGinn 80', 0.02 xGPaton 90+8', 0.32 xG, goalCasey 59', 0.30 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals82%1.11 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.11 xG, 2 goals7%0.10 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.10 xG, 0 goals11%0.15 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Findlay 43', 0.20 xGVassell 22', 0.16 xGMagennis 29', 0.12 xGArmstrong 1', 0.10 xGVassell 88', 0.08 xGLyons 31', 0.03 xGKennedy 58', 0.03 xGVassell 71', 0.03 xGVassell 1', 0.02 xGLyons 47', 0.02 xGMagennis 71', 0.02 xGWatkins 12', 0.24 xG, goal42%0.44 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.44 xG, 1 goal39%0.41 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.41 xG, 0 goals10%0.10 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals9%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

MotherwellKilmarnock

1.27 9 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.48 5 shots, 0 goals
0.10 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.57 7 shots, 1 goal
0.79 1 shot, 0 goalsPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
51 min (52%) · Motherwell 1.30, Kilmarnock 0.49 xG
Motherwell ahead
1 min (1%) · Motherwell 0.00, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
47 min (47%) · Motherwell 0.85, Kilmarnock 0.56 xG

Line-ups

11651528387221114KellyMcGinnMugabiCaseyO'DonnellSlatteryMillerSpittalSpencerEffordBairYellow cardGoalYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow card46'Motherwell 3-5-2Stuart Kettlewell15617111216810923DennisMayoDeasFindlayArmstrongWatsonMagennisLyonsKennedyVassellWatkinsYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card78'90+1'Kilmarnock 3-5-2Derek McInnes

Motherwell substitutes

  • 46' Paton for Efford · yellow card 66', goal 90+8'

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 78' McKenzie for Armstrong
  • 90+1' Cameron for Vassell

Players

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK900.000.0000.0110
McGinn CB900.050.0110.06913
MugabiCB900.000.0100.0769
Casey CB9010.300.0100.05712
O'Donnell RWB900.000.1920.23126
Slattery CM900.790.2320.0774
MillerCM900.050.000−0.0214
SpittalCM9010.180.1930.0863
Spencer LWB9010.310.1810.2455
EffordST460.000.0000.0110
BairST900.140.011−0.0510
Paton MF4410.320.1710.1444

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0210
MayoCB900.000.0100.0563
Deas CB900.000.2920.1434
FindlayCB900.200.0000.01211
ArmstrongRWB7810.100.5630.27111
Watson CM900.000.2720.2632
MagennisCM900.140.0910.0231
LyonsCM900.050.0200.0054
KennedyLWB900.030.2520.35112
VassellST900.290.010−0.0531
Watkins ST9010.240.000−0.0104
McKenzieMF120.000.0000.0000
CameronFW00.000.0000.0010

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

Casey and McGinn: 3 passesMugabi and Efford: 3 passesMcGinn and Slattery: 3 passesMcGinn and Spittal: 3 passesSlattery and Spittal: 3 passesSpittal and Efford: 3 passesSpittal and Bair: 3 passesKelly and O'Donnell: 4 passesCasey and Mugabi: 4 passesMugabi and McGinn: 4 passesO'Donnell and Slattery: 4 passesO'Donnell and Efford: 4 passesSpencer and Bair: 4 passesMcGinn and O'Donnell: 6 passesKelly: 8 completed passesCasey: 8 completed passesMugabi: 11 completed passesMcGinn: 15 completed passesO'Donnell: 11 completed passesSpencer: 4 completed passesSlattery: 9 completed passesSpittal: 8 completed passesMiller: 2 completed passesEfford: 4 completed passesBair: 5 completed passes11551622287381114KellyCaseyMugabiMcGinnO'DonnellSpencerSlatterySpittalMillerEffordBairStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Kilmarnock

Dennis and Vassell: 4 passesFindlay and Watson: 4 passesDeas and Watson: 4 passesMagennis and Watkins: 4 passesMayo and Watson: 5 passesDeas and Armstrong: 5 passesFindlay and Lyons: 6 passesArmstrong and Watkins: 6 passesArmstrong and Vassell: 6 passesMagennis and Watson: 6 passesMagennis and Lyons: 6 passesWatson and Lyons: 6 passesKennedy and Lyons: 7 passesKennedy and Watkins: 7 passesMayo and Deas: 8 passesFindlay and Magennis: 8 passesFindlay and Kennedy: 9 passesFindlay and Deas: 11 passesArmstrong and Kennedy: 12 passesArmstrong and Watson: 13 passesKennedy and Magennis: 14 passesKennedy and Vassell: 14 passesDennis: 10 completed passesMayo: 16 completed passesFindlay: 23 completed passesDeas: 20 completed passesArmstrong: 28 completed passesKennedy: 37 completed passesMagennis: 23 completed passesWatson: 22 completed passesLyons: 21 completed passesWatkins: 8 completed passesVassell: 12 completed passes15176111016128239DennisMayoFindlayDeasArmstrongKennedyMagennisWatsonLyonsWatkinsVassellStarters until 78' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Motherwell

FromToPasses
McGinnO'Donnell9
SpittalSlattery9
MugabiCasey8
O'DonnellSlattery8
MugabiMcGinn7

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
MagennisKennedy10
KennedyVassell9
WatsonArmstrong8
KennedyMagennis8
KennedyLyons7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Motherwell

10+6.57−2.519+5.57+1.570.080.012+5.513+6.58+1.05−3.57−2.58+3.55+1.52−4.06−1.05+1.52−1.53−3.58+1.00−2.03−0.53+1.00−0.50−1.520.01−1.00−1.00−0.510.04−5.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 2 matches

Kilmarnock

70.010+5.07+4.06−1.511+2.510+0.57−4.090.03−1.53−5.50−6.08+1.06−1.02−4.50−5.58+4.55+2.06+3.52−0.54+2.000.04+2.54+1.51+0.50−0.51+0.50−0.50−1.02−7.08−8.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 2 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Motherwell

0.010.010.040.010.020.010.040.040.010.040.010.050.010.010.040.050.110.110.060.05−0.02−0.020.21LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.020.010.010.020.010.030.020.020.060.040.010.06−0.030.040.100.11−0.05−0.070.090.280.24LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackMotherwell1.17 → 1.20Kilmarnock1.13 → 1.12Defence (lower is better)Motherwell1.34 → 1.32Kilmarnock1.35 → 1.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
Top six57%66%+9
11th4%3%−1
Bottom2%1%−1
Kilmarnock
Top six57%50%−7
11th5%6%+1
Bottom3%4%+1

From the forecast before the match (26 August 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

MotherwellKilmarnock
Expected goals1.461.03
Win47%26%
Expected Points1.671.05
Clean sheet36%23%

Motherwell 47%Draw 28%Kilmarnock 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 50%.

Kilmarnock goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+9%8%4%2%6%2%9%9%5%2%4%4%2%2%2%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 26 August 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowMotherwell winDrawKilmarnock win
Motherwell
Top six57%66%54%45%
11th4%3%5%6%
Bottom2%1%3%3%
Kilmarnock
Top six57%50%58%71%
11th5%6%4%3%
Bottom3%4%3%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Motherwell

  1. W2–113 AugHibernian (H)xG 0.60–0.86
  2. D1–15 AugDundee FC (A)xG 0.76–1.60
  3. W3–228 MayDundee United (H)xG 2.15–2.81
  4. D1–124 MayLivingston (A)xG 0.47–0.70
  5. W1–020 MayRoss County (H)xG 1.47–0.29
  6. W2–013 MaySt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.53–0.75

Kilmarnock

  1. D0–013 AugHearts (A)xG 0.73–0.39
  2. W1–05 AugRangers (H)xG 0.52–1.36
  3. W3–128 MayRoss County (H)xG 1.46–1.25
  4. W3–024 MayDundee United (A)xG 1.90–0.99
  5. L0–120 MaySt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.48–1.62
  6. W2–013 MayLivingston (H)xG 1.75–0.32

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellKilmarnock
Position5th6th
Played22
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠1–⁠01–⁠1–⁠0
Points4 (2.00 per game)4 (2.00 per game)
Expected Points per game0.821.15
Goals3–⁠21–⁠0
xG per game0.68–⁠1.230.62–⁠0.88
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 0.60–⁠0.863.00, 0.52–⁠1.36
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.76–⁠1.601.00, 0.73–⁠0.39
ManagerStuart Kettlewell (16)Derek McInnes (40)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackMotherwell1.17, 5thKilmarnock1.13, 7thDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.34, 5thKilmarnock1.35, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.04 Aug13 AugMotherwell attack: 1.17Kilmarnock attack: 1.131.171.13KilmarnockMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.04 Aug13 AugMotherwell defence: 1.34Kilmarnock defence: 1.351.351.34

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−22%−3%−38%−7%
Counter-attacks+19%−45%−30%−35%
Set pieces−24%−10%+12%+3%
Penalties−22%+52%−65%−39%
Headers−30%+30%−15%−13%
Left side−1%+3%−1%−32%
Centre−31%−12%−30%+2%
Right side−15%+1%−37%+3%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−1%+3%Centre−31%+2%Right side−15%−32%Open play−22%−7%Counter-attacks+19%−35%Set pieces−24%+3%Headers−30%−13%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdMotherwell concededLeft side−1%+1%Centre−30%−12%Right side−37%+3%Open play−38%−3%Counter-attacks−30%−45%Set pieces+12%−10%Headers−15%+30%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellKilmarnock

0.68xG0.62
1.23xG against0.88
54%Possession34%
11.5Shots11.5
10.5Shots against13.0
3.0Shots on target3.5
1.0Big chances0.5
375Passes281
70%Pass accuracy62%
8.5Corners3.5
62%Field tilt36%
28.0Final-third entries33.5
8.5Box entries11.0
11.1Passes per defensive action18.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level660.750.35
Ahead240.503.71
Behind0––

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level780.680.71
Ahead120.321.91
Behind0––

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.000.020–0
16–300.100.090–0
31–450.210.051–0
46–600.070.410–0
61–750.200.181–1
76–900.100.471–1

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.040–0
16–300.150.010–0
31–450.070.190–0
46–600.110.040–0
61–750.200.201–0
76–900.010.390–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTKelly 2McGinn 2Mugabi 2Casey 2O'Donnell 2Slattery 2Miller 2Spittal 2Souaré 2Wilkinson 2Bair 23-5-2 in every start

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 2Mayo 2Deas 2Findlay 2Armstrong 2Watson 2Lyons 2Magennis 2Ndaba 2Kennedy 2Watkins 23-5-2 in 1 of 2 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
6 May 2023Motherwell2–0KilmarnockxG 1.67–0.43
25 February 2023Kilmarnock1–1MotherwellxG 0.75–1.24
23 December 2022Motherwell2–2KilmarnockxG 1.33–0.34
27 August 2022Kilmarnock2–1MotherwellxG 1.52–0.70
1 May 2021Motherwell2–0KilmarnockxG 1.00–0.93
20 March 2021Kilmarnock4–1MotherwellxG 1.86–1.33

8 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 3, Kilmarnock won 3, and 2 were drawn. Goals 10–11 and xG 1.08–1.08 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Obika5506100.250.04
Spittal383,041670.100.17
Mugabi6668100.160.00
Slattery252,115420.060.06

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong332,921970.240.21
Vassell141,200420.320.11
Watson10833000.150.09
Murray4511000.080.16

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.