Matches › 2022/23

Motherwell 2–2 Kilmarnock

Friday 23 December 2022, 19:45 · Fir Park · Round 18 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 5,207

Motherwell van Veen 22', Slattery 60'

Kilmarnock McGinn 73' (og), Polworth 75' · Power sent off 68'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Measure	Motherwell	Kilmarnock
Goals	2	2
xG	1.33	0.34
Expected Points	2.18	0.53

Motherwell 63%Draw 29%Kilmarnock 8%

Most likely score 1–0, 25%. Final score 2–2, 1%.

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

MotherwellKilmarnock

1.33 −0.01xG0.34 −0.54

0.89 −0.31xG on target0.45 −0.20

15 +3Shots3 −8

4 +0.6Shots on target2 −0.9

0 −1.9Big chances1 −0.2

23 +6Touches in the opposition box16 −1

60% +12Possession40% −6

457 +100Passes314 −30

73% +4Pass accuracy59% −8

62% +11Field tilt38% −8

40 +5Final-third entries30 −4

15 +6.8Box entries5 −3.6

7.9 −5Passes per defensive action15.9 +2

12 +7.0Corners1 −3.5

12 −3Tackles17 +1

7 −3Interceptions12 +1

16 0Clearances30 +12

1 −1.4Saves2 −1.2

15 +1Fouls12 −1

0 −1.7Offsides1 −0.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Zones Shots

Motherwell

Kilmarnock

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

MotherwellKilmarnock

0.76 10 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.26 2 shots, 1 goal

0.57 5 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.08 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

0–01–02–02–2

Level: 43 min (45%) · Motherwell 0.52, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG
Motherwell ahead: 53 min (55%) · Motherwell 0.81, Kilmarnock 0.34 xG

Line-ups

Motherwell substitutes

86' Cornelius for Spittal
86' Tierney for McKinstry

Kilmarnock substitutes

46' Polworth for Wales · goal 75'
46' McKenzie for Donnelly
61' Robinson for Jones
78' Alston for Armstrong
86' Stokes for Chrisene

Players

Motherwell

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Kelly	GK	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.02	2	0
O'Donnell	RB	90			0.08	0.04	0	0.11	10	7
McGinn	CB	90			0.00	0.01	1	0.07	9	4
Lamie	CB	90			0.08	0.07	1	0.15	8	8
Penney	LB	90			0.01	0.01	0	0.01	5	0
Spittal	CM	86		1	0.14	0.70	4	0.41	6	2
Slattery	CM	90	1		0.13	0.11	2	0.12	8	6
Goss	CM	90			0.04	0.06	0	0.13	11	2
Shields	RW	90			0.32	0.00	0	−0.01	1	1
van Veen	ST	90	1		0.37	0.02	1	−0.03	5	1
McKinstry	LW	86			0.15	0.09	2	0.08	3	4
Cornelius	MF	4			0.00	0.01	0	0.01	0	0
Tierney	MF	4			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	0

Kilmarnock

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Walker	GK	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.04	4	1
Mayo	RB	90		1	0.00	0.02	1	−0.05	2	9
Taylor	CB	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.02	4	9
Wright	CB	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.02	1	10
Chrisene	LB	86			0.00	0.01	0	0.04	2	11
Armstrong	RM	78			0.00	0.11	0	0.09	3	0
Power	CM	68			0.00	0.01	0	0.02	2	5
Donnelly	CM	46			0.00	0.00	0	−0.01	0	4
Jones	LM	61			0.33	0.01	0	0.01	1	1
Doidge	ST	90			0.00	0.02	0	−0.01	1	3
Wales	ST	46			0.00	0.02	1	0.01	0	1
Polworth	MF	44	1		0.01	0.03	0	0.09	4	4
McKenzie	MF	44			0.00	0.10	1	0.02	3	1
Robinson	MF	29			0.00	0.04	0	−0.14	0	1
Alston	MF	12			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	4
Stokes	DF	4			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	2

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

Kilmarnock

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Motherwell

From	To	Passes
O'Donnell	Slattery	24
McGinn	O'Donnell	12
Penney	Lamie	10
O'Donnell	McGinn	10
Slattery	O'Donnell	10

Kilmarnock

From	To	Passes
Walker	Doidge	11
Chrisene	Power	11
Power	Chrisene	7
Mayo	Armstrong	6
Chrisene	Armstrong	6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Motherwell

Against its average of 16 matches

Kilmarnock

Against its average of 17 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Motherwell

Kilmarnock

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

Chance	Before	With this result	Change
Motherwell
Top six	25%	22%	−3
11th	7%	7%	0
Bottom	2%	3%	+1
Kilmarnock
Top six	2%	2%	0
11th	25%	24%	−1
Bottom	23%	23%	0
Ross County
11th	27%	27%	0
Bottom	40%	39%	−1
St. Johnstone
Top six	52%	54%	+2
11th	2%	3%	+1

From the forecast before the match (23 December 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Measure	Motherwell	Kilmarnock
Expected goals	1.42	0.95
Win	47%	25%
Expected Points	1.70	1.02
Clean sheet	39%	24%

Motherwell 47%Draw 28%Kilmarnock 25%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 47%.

From the forecast as it stood on 23 December 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

Chance	Now	Motherwell win	Draw	Kilmarnock win
Motherwell
Top six	25%	33%	22%	14%
11th	7%	4%	7%	12%
Bottom	2%	1%	3%	4%
Kilmarnock
Top six	2%	1%	2%	6%
11th	25%	28%	24%	21%
Bottom	23%	28%	23%	13%
Ross County
11th	27%	27%	27%	25%
Bottom	40%	39%	39%	44%
St. Johnstone
Top six	52%	50%	54%	53%
11th	2%	2%	3%	2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Motherwell

Kilmarnock

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Measure	Motherwell	Kilmarnock
Position	9th	11th
Played	16	17
Won, drawn, lost	5–⁠2–⁠9	4–⁠3–⁠10
Points	17 (1.06 per game)	15 (0.88 per game)
Expected Points per game	1.33	1.14
Goals	20–⁠22	13–⁠30
xG per game	1.34–⁠1.36	0.88–⁠1.24
Home: points, xG per game	0.57, 1.37–⁠1.02	1.75, 1.19–⁠1.21
Away: points, xG per game	1.44, 1.33–⁠1.62	0.11, 0.61–⁠1.26
Manager	Steven Hammell (16)	Derek McInnes (17)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

This season

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Chances	Motherwell		Kilmarnock
Chances	Created	Conceded	Created	Conceded
Open play	−7%	+23%	−40%	−12%
Counter-attacks	+107%	+30%	−51%	−49%
Set pieces	−13%	−15%	+23%	+33%
Penalties	+69%	−66%	−68%	−5%
Headers	−26%	+29%	+6%	−11%
Left side	+9%	−9%	−13%	−6%
Centre	−13%	+46%	−36%	−10%
Right side	−1%	−10%	−26%	+10%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+9%+10%Centre−13%−10%Right side−1%−6%Open play−7%−12%Counter-attacks+107%−49%Set pieces−13%+33%Headers−26%−11%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdMotherwell concededLeft side−13%−10%Centre−36%+46%Right side−26%−9%Open play−40%+23%Counter-attacks−51%+30%Set pieces+23%−15%Headers+6%+29%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellKilmarnock

1.34xG0.88

1.36xG against1.24

48%Possession46%

12.4Shots11.3

12.2Shots against12.7

3.4Shots on target2.9

1.9Big chances1.2

16.7Touches in the opposition box16.7

357Passes344

69%Pass accuracy68%

5.0Corners4.5

50%Field tilt46%

34.7Final-third entries33.5

8.2Box entries8.6

12.8Passes per defensive action14.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	41	1.41	1.81
Ahead	20	1.19	1.01
Behind	29	1.36	0.96

Kilmarnock

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	32	1.09	1.03
Ahead	17	0.81	1.24
Behind	41	0.75	1.40

xG by period

Motherwell

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.09	0.25	1–3
16–30	0.17	0.23	3–3
31–45	0.23	0.26	3–2
46–60	0.24	0.17	6–4
61–75	0.31	0.17	2–5
76–90	0.31	0.27	5–5

Kilmarnock

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.08	0.18	2–5
16–30	0.14	0.23	2–7
31–45	0.17	0.21	1–5
46–60	0.28	0.13	4–1
61–75	0.10	0.19	2–5
76–90	0.11	0.29	2–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (10), 4-3-3 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (4), 4-4-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-4-3 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-3-3-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

Date	Home	Score	Away	xG
27 August 2022	Kilmarnock	2–1	Motherwell	xG 1.52–0.70
1 May 2021	Motherwell	2–0	Kilmarnock	xG 1.00–0.93
20 March 2021	Kilmarnock	4–1	Motherwell	xG 1.86–1.33
10 February 2021	Kilmarnock	0–1	Motherwell	xG 1.00–0.95
30 December 2020	Motherwell	0–2	Kilmarnock	xG 0.40–1.78

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 2, Kilmarnock won 3, and 0 were drawn. Goals 5–8 and xG 0.88–1.42 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
van Veen	16	1,352	7	0	0.61	0.08
McKinstry	6	598	2	1	0.12	0.23
Spittal	15	1,102	3	2	0.13	0.16
Shields	10	800	0	2	0.10	0.15

Kilmarnock

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Armstrong	12	1,125	5	3	0.22	0.17
Shaw	7	628	0	0	0.25	0.02
McInroy	7	533	0	0	0.09	0.14
Lafferty	8	576	1	0	0.18	0.01

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.