Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Motherwell 2–0 Kilmarnock

Saturday 6 May 2023, 15:00 · Fir Park · Round 34 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Kevin Clancy · Attendance 6,472

Motherwell Spittal 4', van Veen 90+1'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

MotherwellKilmarnock
Goals20
xG1.670.43
Expected Points2.350.43

Motherwell 71%Draw 22%Kilmarnock 7%

Most likely score 1–0, 21%. Final score 2–0, 20%.

Kilmarnock goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+9%4%11%2%10%2%10%5%3%1%21%20%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTPaton on for Slattery, 70'O'Donnell on for Mandron, 85'Blaney on for Furlong, 90+1'Alebiosu on for Power and Polworth on for Watson, 57'Jones on for McKenzie and Wales on for Robinson, 76'Alston on for Taylor, 89'Spittal 4'van Veen 90+1'Motherwell 1.67Kilmarnock 0.4300.511.520153045607590HTPaton on for Slattery, 70'O'Donnell on for Mandron, 85'Blaney on for Furlong, 90+1'Alebiosu on for Power and Polworth on for Watson, 57'Jones on for McKenzie and Wales on for Robinson, 76'Alston on for Taylor, 89'Spittal 4'van Veen 90+1'1.670.43MotherwellKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

MotherwellKilmarnock

1.67 +0.42xG0.43 −0.65
2.60 +1.46xG on target0.00 −0.80
17 +6Shots8 −4
6 +2.5Shots on target1 −2.2
4 +2.3Big chances1 −0.5
43% −4Possession57% +13
263 −84Passes347 +27
54% −12Pass accuracy67% +3
23% −24Field tilt77% +34
25 −9Final-third entries48 +15
9 +0.5Box entries9 −0.2
12.9 −1Passes per defensive action12.1 −3
8 +3.2Corners1 −3.4
18 +1Tackles7 −10
6 −3.0Interceptions6 −5.6
23 +4Clearances19 −1
0 −2.8Saves4 +0.8
15 +2Fouls12 0
3 +1.2Offsides3 +1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Motherwell

McGinn 88', 0.38 xGSpittal 49', 0.24 xGvan Veen 78', 0.10 xGvan Veen 64', 0.09 xGMandron 79', 0.09 xGJohnston 90+5', 0.09 xGCasey 65', 0.06 xGCasey 79', 0.04 xGGoss 51', 0.02 xGSpittal 9', 0.01 xGSlattery 10', 0.01 xGvan Veen 37', 0.01 xGvan Veen 42', 0.01 xGPaton 90+2', 0.01 xGMandron 11', 0.00 xGvan Veen 90+1', 0.50 xG, goalSpittal 4', 0.01 xG, goal23%0.38 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.38 xG, 0 goals65%1.08 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 1.08 xG, 2 goals5%0.08 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals7%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Doidge 82', 0.15 xGWales 90+3', 0.13 xGJones 77', 0.06 xGRobinson 9', 0.02 xGArmstrong 14', 0.02 xGDonnelly 26', 0.02 xGChambers 46', 0.02 xGArmstrong 43', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals79%0.34 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.34 xG, 0 goals7%0.03 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals12%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals2%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

MotherwellKilmarnock

0.96 8 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.38 6 shots, 0 goals
0.10 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.61 8 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.05 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
4 min (4%) · Motherwell 0.01, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG
Motherwell ahead
91 min (96%) · Motherwell 1.66, Kilmarnock 0.43 xG

Line-ups

116526622278247219KellyMcGinnCaseyButcherJohnstonGossSlatteryFurlongSpittalMandronvan VeenYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoal70'90+1'85'Motherwell 3-4-1-2Stuart Kettlewell2019524113422471626WalkerWrightTaylorChambersArmstrongWatsonDonnellyPowerMcKenzieRobinsonDoidgeYellow cardYellow card89'57'57'76'76'Kilmarnock 3-5-2Derek McInnes

Motherwell substitutes

  • 70' Paton for Slattery
  • 85' O'Donnell for Mandron
  • 90+1' Blaney for Furlong

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 57' Polworth for Watson
  • 57' Alebiosu for Power
  • 76' Wales for Robinson
  • 76' Jones for McKenzie
  • 89' Alston for Taylor

Players

Motherwell

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
KellyGK9010.000.0010.0562
McGinnCB900.380.0110.0653
CaseyCB900.110.0000.0138
ButcherCB900.000.0000.0136
JohnstonRWB900.090.0100.0634
Goss CM900.020.0110.0233
Slattery CM700.010.0210.0772
FurlongLWB9010.000.1120.0818
SpittalAM9010.260.3740.1632
MandronST850.090.010−0.0209
van VeenST9010.710.1130.2440
PatonMF200.010.000−0.0104
O'DonnellDF50.000.0000.0000
BlaneyDF00.000.0000.0001

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WalkerGK900.000.0000.0541
Wright CB900.000.0100.0123
TaylorCB890.000.0100.0888
ChambersCB900.020.0300.0879
ArmstrongRWB900.040.1200.1962
WatsonCM570.000.0100.0012
DonnellyCM900.020.0210.0435
PowerCM570.000.0500.0855
McKenzieLWB760.000.0000.0020
RobinsonST760.020.0110.0021
Doidge ST900.150.283−0.0710
PolworthMF330.000.0600.0551
AlebiosuDF330.000.1110.2262
WalesFW140.130.0000.1600
JonesMF140.060.0100.0331
AlstonMF10.000.0000.0010

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Motherwell

Kelly and Butcher: 3 passesCasey and Slattery: 3 passesCasey and Mandron: 3 passesButcher and McGinn: 4 passesMcGinn and Spittal: 4 passesJohnston and Spittal: 4 passesSlattery and Spittal: 4 passesSlattery and van Veen: 4 passesGoss and Mandron: 4 passesFurlong and Mandron: 4 passesKelly and Mandron: 5 passesButcher and Slattery: 5 passesJohnston and Slattery: 5 passesGoss and Spittal: 5 passesSpittal and van Veen: 5 passesButcher and Goss: 6 passesMcGinn and Mandron: 6 passesGoss and Furlong: 6 passesFurlong and Spittal: 6 passesSlattery and Mandron: 7 passesMcGinn and Slattery: 10 passesKelly: 8 completed passesCasey: 11 completed passesButcher: 12 completed passesMcGinn: 16 completed passesJohnston: 11 completed passesSlattery: 19 completed passesGoss: 15 completed passesFurlong: 13 completed passesSpittal: 13 completed passesMandron: 16 completed passesvan Veen: 3 completed passes152661622827247219KellyCaseyButcherMcGinnJohnstonSlatteryGossFurlongSpittalMandronvan VeenStarters until 70' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Kilmarnock

Walker and Wright: 3 passesWalker and Robinson: 3 passesChambers and McKenzie: 3 passesTaylor and Doidge: 3 passesArmstrong and Power: 3 passesArmstrong and Watson: 3 passesPower and Watson: 3 passesWatson and Donnelly: 3 passesRobinson and Doidge: 3 passesWright and Donnelly: 4 passesChambers and Donnelly: 4 passesTaylor and Power: 4 passesPower and Doidge: 4 passesWright and Watson: 5 passesChambers and Doidge: 5 passesArmstrong and Donnelly: 5 passesMcKenzie and Power: 5 passesWright and Armstrong: 6 passesPower and Donnelly: 6 passesPower and Robinson: 6 passesChambers and Power: 10 passesWalker: 5 completed passesWright: 16 completed passesChambers: 18 completed passesTaylor: 14 completed passesArmstrong: 6 completed passesMcKenzie: 6 completed passesPower: 21 completed passesWatson: 11 completed passesDonnelly: 14 completed passesRobinson: 8 completed passesDoidge: 5 completed passes2019245117434221626WalkerWrightChambersTaylorArmstrongMcKenziePowerWatsonDonnellyRobinsonDoidgeStarters until 57' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Motherwell

FromToPasses
SlatteryMcGinn7
GossButcher5
McGinnMandron5
FurlongSpittal5
KellyMandron5

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PolworthAlebiosu7
PowerChambers6
WrightArmstrong6
DonnellyPower5
WrightDonnelly5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Motherwell

2−2.92−4.015+2.57+0.34−1.86−1.410+3.36−0.110+3.010+2.47−0.15−0.22−1.47+1.413+6.44−0.84+0.31−2.14+0.22−3.01−1.51−0.64+3.13+0.81−1.710.01+0.61+0.30−0.50−1.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 33 matches

Kilmarnock

5−0.26−1.217+3.46−1.13−1.85−2.67+1.311+3.17+1.12−1.94−1.65+0.14−1.24−0.32−0.22−1.78+3.92−0.51−1.110.01−0.93+0.50−1.41+0.23+2.31+0.60−0.84−3.63−4.13−3.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 33 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Motherwell

0.010.010.010.020.030.010.030.030.010.100.010.030.020.010.040.010.01−0.010.08−0.01−0.02−0.110.100.180.14LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.030.010.020.010.020.010.040.010.040.060.020.050.010.010.040.070.020.050.030.010.06−0.050.190.15LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.26AttackMotherwell1.11 → 1.14Kilmarnock1.06 → 1.03Defence (lower is better)Motherwell1.33 → 1.28Kilmarnock1.37 → 1.40

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Motherwell
11th1%<1%−1
Kilmarnock
11th30%36%+6
Bottom10%14%+4
Dundee United
11th36%31%−5
Bottom15%13%−2
St. Johnstone
11th15%12%−3

From the forecast before the match (6 May 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

MotherwellKilmarnock
Expected goals1.461.01
Win47%25%
Expected Points1.691.04
Clean sheet36%23%

Motherwell 47%Draw 28%Kilmarnock 25%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 49%.

Kilmarnock goalsMotherwell goals0123456+0123456+9%8%4%1%6%2%9%9%5%2%4%4%2%2%2%12%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 6 May 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowMotherwell winDrawKilmarnock win
Motherwell
11th1%<1%<1%2%
Kilmarnock
11th30%36%30%17%
Bottom10%14%9%2%
Dundee United
11th36%31%35%44%
Bottom15%13%16%17%
St. Johnstone
11th15%12%15%20%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Motherwell

  1. D1–122 AprCeltic (A)xG 0.81–2.04
  2. L1–215 AprDundee United (H)xG 2.47–1.53
  3. W3–08 AprLivingston (H)xG 1.59–0.84
  4. W3–11 AprHibernian (A)xG 1.79–0.90
  5. L2–418 MarRangers (H)xG 0.88–4.09
  6. W2–04 MarRoss County (A)xG 1.42–1.19

Kilmarnock

  1. W2–022 AprSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.32–0.51
  2. L1–416 AprCeltic (H)xG 1.73–2.56
  3. L0–28 AprAberdeen (A)xG 1.09–2.20
  4. W2–11 AprHearts (H)xG 2.72–0.68
  5. D1–118 MarSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.31–0.57
  6. L1–34 MarRangers (A)xG 0.79–3.55

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

MotherwellKilmarnock
Position8th11th
Played3333
Won, drawn, lost10–⁠7–⁠168–⁠7–⁠18
Points37 (1.12 per game)31 (0.94 per game)
Expected Points per game1.271.18
Goals44–⁠4829–⁠58
xG per game1.25–⁠1.401.08–⁠1.42
Home: points, xG per game0.94, 1.28–⁠1.211.62, 1.38–⁠1.15
Away: points, xG per game1.29, 1.22–⁠1.590.29, 0.79–⁠1.68
ManagerStuart Kettlewell (9)Derek McInnes (33)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.26AttackMotherwell1.11, 6thKilmarnock1.06, 7thDefence (lower is better)Motherwell1.33, 7thKilmarnock1.37, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMotherwell attack: 1.11Kilmarnock attack: 1.061.111.06KilmarnockMotherwellDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMotherwell defence: 1.33Kilmarnock defence: 1.371.371.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

MotherwellKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−12%+12%−26%+7%
Counter-attacks+68%−1%−49%+10%
Set pieces−8%+10%+33%+17%
Penalties+8%−38%−69%−8%
Headers−25%+38%+14%−17%
Left side−2%+4%+1%−2%
Centre−16%+25%−19%+16%
Right side−1%−3%−14%+10%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Motherwell attacking

Motherwell createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−2%+10%Centre−16%+16%Right side−1%−2%Open play−12%+7%Counter-attacks+68%+10%Set pieces−8%+17%Headers−25%−17%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdMotherwell concededLeft side+1%−3%Centre−19%+25%Right side−14%+4%Open play−26%+12%Counter-attacks−49%−1%Set pieces+33%+10%Headers+14%+38%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

MotherwellKilmarnock

1.25xG1.08
1.40xG against1.42
47%Possession44%
11.5Shots11.7
12.3Shots against12.7
3.5Shots on target3.2
1.7Big chances1.5
16.4Touches in the opposition box19.6
347Passes320
66%Pass accuracy64%
4.8Corners4.4
47%Field tilt43%
33.8Final-third entries32.9
8.5Box entries9.2
14.0Passes per defensive action14.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Motherwell

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.311.76
Ahead231.251.00
Behind301.161.26

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level301.191.11
Ahead201.161.14
Behind400.951.79

xG by period

Motherwell

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.205–5
16–300.170.246–9
31–450.220.217–5
46–600.250.2212–7
61–750.260.245–16
76–900.240.289–6

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.213–13
16–300.170.285–14
31–450.230.238–7
46–600.280.216–7
61–750.120.184–8
76–900.150.323–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Motherwell

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTKelly 33McGinn 17Johnston 11O'Donnell 5Johansen 18Butcher 8McGinn 4Lamie 22Casey 9Penney 16Cornelius 5O'Donnell 5Slattery 13Cornelius 10Furlong 8Goss 24Tierney 1Morris 1Shields 10McGinn 8Spittal 4Spittal 12Goss 6Slattery 5Spittal 11McKinstry 8van Veen 6van Veen 23Obika 4Shields 24-2-3-1 in 11 of 33 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (11), 3-4-1-2 (8), 4-3-3 (8), 4-4-2 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTWalker 23Hemming 10Mayo 15Alebiosu 11Armstrong 4Taylor 21Wright 21Mayo 10Dorsett 7Chrisene 7Chambers 6McInroy 6Armstrong 15McKenzie 5Jones 3Polworth 12Watson 5Armstrong 4Power 22Donnelly 10Alston 4McKenzie 13Jones 8Taylor 3Doidge 16Lafferty 8Cameron 5Vassell 10Robinson 5Shaw 54-4-2 in 9 of 33 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (9), 3-5-2 (5), 3-4-2-1 (4), 5-3-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-5-1-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 4-5-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-3-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
25 February 2023Kilmarnock1–1MotherwellxG 0.75–1.24
23 December 2022Motherwell2–2KilmarnockxG 1.33–0.34
27 August 2022Kilmarnock2–1MotherwellxG 1.52–0.70
1 May 2021Motherwell2–0KilmarnockxG 1.00–0.93
20 March 2021Kilmarnock4–1MotherwellxG 1.86–1.33
10 February 2021Kilmarnock0–1MotherwellxG 1.00–0.95

7 league meetings since 2020/21: Motherwell won 2, Kilmarnock won 3, and 2 were drawn. Goals 8–11 and xG 0.99–1.17 per game.

Key players

Motherwell

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
van Veen312,7262010.540.08
McKinstry101,050410.160.16
Tierney4574200.190.10
Spittal312,411460.110.17

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong262,326760.220.23
Vassell10824020.270.11
Robinson5543200.270.08
Shaw7628000.250.02

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.