Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Hearts 2–0 Aberdeen

Saturday 16 September 2023, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 5 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Kevin Clancy · Attendance 18,626

Hearts Oda 14', Boyce 64'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsAberdeen
Goals20
xG1.180.53
Expected Points1.970.71

Hearts 55%Draw 32%Aberdeen 13%

Most likely score 1–0, 27%. Final score 2–0, 14%.

Aberdeen goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+13%7%2%17%4%14%8%2%3%2%27%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTForrest on for Oda, 34'Nieuwenhof on for Haring, 50'Grant on for Boyce and Sibbick on for Atkinson, 66'Duncan on for McGarry, 57'Guèye on for Clarkson and Barron on for McGrath, 67'Sokler on for Miovski, 68'Oda 14'Boyce 64'Hearts 1.18Aberdeen 0.5300.511.50153045607590HTForrest on for Oda, 34'Nieuwenhof on for Haring, 50'Grant on for Boyce and Sibbick on for Atkinson, 66'Duncan on for McGarry, 57'Guèye on for Clarkson and Barron on for McGrath, 67'Sokler on for Miovski, 68'Oda 14'Boyce 64'1.180.53HeartsAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsAberdeen

1.18 +0.05xG0.53 −0.55
2.08 +0.74xG on target0.87 +0.10
12 −1.0Shots11 +2.0
4 0.0Shots on target5 +3.2
1 −0.8Big chances1 0.0
33 +3Touches in the opposition box18
53% −13Possession47% −2
427 −79Passes380 +52
69% −9Pass accuracy65% +4
58% −7Field tilt42% −8
40 −7Final-third entries29 −2
16 −1Box entries7 −3
11.4 +2.0Passes per defensive action15.1 +2.4
9 −0.8Corners3 −3.5
22 +11Tackles26 +8
9 +2.2Interceptions13 +5.5
20 +2Clearances29 +3
5 +2.0Saves2 −2.0
11 0Fouls12 −2
1 0.0Offsides0 −0.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Atkinson 60', 0.11 xGDevlin 55', 0.09 xGBoyce 40', 0.06 xGShankland 60', 0.04 xGRowles 76', 0.04 xGShankland 80', 0.04 xGDevlin 90+1', 0.03 xGAtkinson 12', 0.02 xGVargas 60', 0.02 xGShankland 63', 0.02 xGBoyce 64', 0.64 xG, goalOda 14', 0.06 xG, goal54%0.64 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.64 xG, 1 goal21%0.25 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.25 xG, 0 goals14%0.17 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.17 xG, 1 goal9%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

Guèye 82', 0.12 xGSokler 86', 0.09 xGMiovski 34', 0.07 xGShinnie 82', 0.07 xGShinnie 79', 0.06 xGMcGarry 2', 0.03 xGClarkson 21', 0.03 xGClarkson 45+1', 0.02 xGMiovski 48', 0.02 xGMcGarry 21', 0.01 xGMcGarry 22', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals75%0.40 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.40 xG, 0 goals6%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals19%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsAberdeen

1.05 10 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.45 9 shots, 0 goals
0.13 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.08 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
14 min (15%) · Hearts 0.09, Aberdeen 0.03 xG
Hearts ahead
78 min (85%) · Hearts 1.10, Aberdeen 0.50 xG

Line-ups

281321531451110779ClarkAtkinsonKentRowlesKingsleyDevlinHaringOdaBoyceVargasShanklandYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoalYellow card66'50'34'66'Hearts 4-2-3-1Steven Naismith2463352104157119RoosGartenmannRubezicJensenDevlinClarksonShinnieMcGarryMcGrathDukMiovskiYellow cardYellow card67'57'67'68'Aberdeen 3-4-1-2Barry Robson

Hearts substitutes

  • 34' Forrest for Oda
  • 50' Nieuwenhof for Haring
  • 66' Sibbick for Atkinson
  • 66' Grant for Boyce

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 57' Duncan for McGarry
  • 67' Barron for McGrath
  • 67' Guèye for Clarkson
  • 68' Sokler for Miovski

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0210.0770
Atkinson RB660.130.0000.0338
Kent CB900.000.0000.0436
RowlesCB900.040.0000.0338
KingsleyLB900.000.0400.101011
DevlinDM900.120.0610.18115
Haring DM500.000.0500.0413
OdaRW3410.060.0000.0431
Boyce AM66110.700.0220.0540
VargasLW900.020.2210.1211
ShanklandST900.100.0220.0321
ForrestMF560.000.1010.1264
NieuwenhofMF400.000.0100.0002
SibbickDF240.000.0000.0231
GrantMF240.000.0500.0313

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RoosGK900.000.0000.0553
GartenmannCB900.000.0200.13610
Rubezic CB900.000.0000.01015
JensenCB900.000.0110.05511
DevlinRWB900.000.1110.1155
Clarkson CM670.050.0720.0112
ShinnieCM900.130.020−0.0104
McGarryLWB570.050.0100.0423
McGrathAM670.000.0110.0113
DukST900.000.0910.1586
MiovskiST680.090.0100.0401
DuncanMF330.000.0000.0002
BarronMF230.000.0100.0454
GuèyeFW230.120.0510.1701
SoklerFW220.090.000−0.0102

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Clark and Atkinson: 3 passesDevlin and Boyce: 3 passesHaring and Boyce: 3 passesClark and Rowles: 4 passesAtkinson and Kent: 4 passesAtkinson and Devlin: 4 passesAtkinson and Shankland: 4 passesRowles and Haring: 4 passesKent and Haring: 4 passesDevlin and Haring: 4 passesDevlin and Oda: 4 passesClark and Kent: 5 passesAtkinson and Haring: 5 passesRowles and Kent: 5 passesKingsley and Vargas: 5 passesRowles and Kingsley: 6 passesKingsley and Haring: 6 passesKent and Devlin: 8 passesClark: 10 completed passesAtkinson: 10 completed passesRowles: 14 completed passesKent: 15 completed passesKingsley: 12 completed passesDevlin: 18 completed passesHaring: 15 completed passesOda: 2 completed passesBoyce: 6 completed passesVargas: 6 completed passesShankland: 4 completed passes281315231451110779ClarkAtkinsonRowlesKentKingsleyDevlinHaringOdaBoyceVargasShanklandStarters until 34' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Aberdeen

Roos and Clarkson: 4 passesRubezic and Shinnie: 4 passesShinnie and McGarry: 4 passesMcGrath and Miovski: 4 passesRoos and Rubezic: 5 passesGartenmann and Devlin: 5 passesGartenmann and Clarkson: 5 passesJensen and Shinnie: 5 passesClarkson and Shinnie: 5 passesMcGarry and Duk: 5 passesGartenmann and Rubezic: 7 passesRubezic and McGrath: 7 passesClarkson and McGrath: 7 passesRoos and Gartenmann: 8 passesJensen and McGarry: 8 passesClarkson and McGarry: 8 passesJensen and Clarkson: 9 passesRoos: 10 completed passesGartenmann: 17 completed passesJensen: 21 completed passesRubezic: 23 completed passesDevlin: 7 completed passesClarkson: 24 completed passesShinnie: 11 completed passesMcGarry: 13 completed passesMcGrath: 16 completed passesMiovski: 4 completed passesDuk: 5 completed passes2465332104157911RoosGartenmannJensenRubezicDevlinClarksonShinnieMcGarryMcGrathMiovskiDukStarters until 57' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
DevlinVargas11
KentClark9
RowlesKingsley8
RowlesKent8
DevlinKent7

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
JensenShinnie7
RubezicGartenmann7
JensenClarkson7
ClarksonMcGarry7
JensenGartenmann6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

5−3.012+4.88−1.260.04−2.28−3.28+3.22−2.84−2.57−1.06−0.55+1.25+1.07+2.512+7.04−0.58+4.07+5.07+3.211+6.01−0.53+1.51−0.23+1.84+2.810.01−0.20−1.22+2.03+2.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 4 matches

Aberdeen

16+10.89+2.023+6.08+2.05−0.59−2.08+0.88+3.010+1.58−2.27−0.57+1.56+4.216+11.55−3.57+1.21−2.52−1.21−3.240.01−1.50−0.810.04+2.51−3.51+0.200.00−0.20−0.22+1.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 4 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.060.010.010.010.020.010.010.010.010.020.050.080.020.010.040.03−0.020.040.060.050.020.030.100.100.11LessMore

Aberdeen

0.010.010.040.020.030.010.010.020.070.020.010.010.010.090.010.010.050.020.05−0.010.130.14LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackHearts1.28 → 1.30Aberdeen1.15 → 1.13Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.33 → 1.30Aberdeen1.39 → 1.40

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six55%63%+8
11th5%3%−2
Bottom3%2%−1
Aberdeen
Top six29%23%−6
11th12%14%+2
Bottom11%14%+3

From the forecast before the match (16 September 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsAberdeen
Expected goals1.631.06
Win50%24%
Expected Points1.770.98
Clean sheet35%20%

Hearts 50%Draw 26%Aberdeen 24%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 53%.

Aberdeen goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%7%4%1%6%2%5%2%5%5%3%1%2%2%1%11%12%9%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 16 September 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawAberdeen win
Hearts
Top six55%63%50%43%
11th5%3%6%7%
Bottom3%2%4%5%
Aberdeen
Top six29%23%31%40%
11th12%14%10%9%
Bottom11%14%9%5%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. L0–13 SepMotherwell (H)xG 1.51–1.14
  2. L0–127 AugDundee FC (A)xG 0.86–1.52
  3. D0–013 AugKilmarnock (H)xG 0.39–0.73
  4. W2–05 AugSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.77–0.94
  5. D1–127 MayHibernian (H)xG 0.11–1.50
  6. D2–224 MayRangers (A)xG 1.17–2.85

Aberdeen

  1. L0–23 SepHibernian (H)xG 0.98–1.23
  2. D2–227 AugSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.87–1.97
  3. L1–313 AugCeltic (H)xG 1.76–2.94
  4. D0–05 AugLivingston (A)xG 0.70–0.76
  5. L0–527 MayCeltic (A)xG 0.00–3.56
  6. W3–024 MaySt. Mirren (H)xG 1.53–0.70

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsAberdeen
Position8th11th
Played44
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠1–⁠20–⁠2–⁠2
Points4 (1.00 per game)2 (0.50 per game)
Expected Points per game1.340.87
Goals2–⁠23–⁠7
xG per game1.13–⁠1.081.08–⁠1.73
Home: points, xG per game0.50, 0.95–⁠0.930.00, 1.37–⁠2.08
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.31–⁠1.231.00, 0.78–⁠1.36
ManagerSteven Naismith (0)Barry Robson (19)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackHearts1.28, 3rdAberdeen1.15, 6thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.33, 5thAberdeen1.39, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepHearts attack: 1.28Aberdeen attack: 1.151.281.15AberdeenHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepHearts defence: 1.33Aberdeen defence: 1.391.391.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+3%−14%−25%average
Counter-attacks+38%−60%−31%+30%
Set pieces−24%+54%−6%+74%
Penalties−52%−70%+43%+61%
Headers−19%+10%−4%+21%
Left side−7%−49%−39%+38%
Centre+8%+9%−9%+31%
Right side−17%+36%−32%−9%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdAberdeen concededLeft side−7%−9%Centre+8%+31%Right side−17%+38%Open play+3%averageCounter-attacks+38%+30%Set pieces−24%+74%Headers−19%+21%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdHearts concededLeft side−39%+36%Centre−9%+9%Right side−32%−49%Open play−25%−14%Counter-attacks−31%−60%Set pieces−6%+54%Headers−4%+10%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsAberdeen

1.13xG1.08
1.08xG against1.73
66%Possession49%
13.0Shots9.0
10.8Shots against14.0
4.0Shots on target1.8
1.8Big chances1.0
506Passes328
78%Pass accuracy61%
9.8Corners6.5
65%Field tilt50%
47.0Final-third entries30.6
16.8Box entries10.2
9.4Passes per defensive action12.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level640.741.29
Ahead43.900.42
Behind221.810.58

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level600.701.33
Ahead40.005.72
Behind262.131.98

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.040.230–0
16–300.070.240–1
31–450.060.080–0
46–600.230.360–0
61–750.350.051–1
76–900.390.121–0

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.220.390–1
16–300.280.141–1
31–450.190.231–0
46–600.090.530–1
61–750.070.140–1
76–900.230.301–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTClark 4Atkinson 3Offiah 1Kent 4Rowles 4Kingsley 3Cochrane 1Devlin 3Lowry 1Haring 3Denholm 1Oda 4Shankland 1Boyce 1Sibbick 1Lowry 2Vargas 1Forrest 1Shankland 3Tagawa 14-2-3-1 in 3 of 4 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (3), 4-3-3 (1)

Aberdeen

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTRoos 4Devlin 2MacDonald 2Rubezic 4MacKenzie 3Jensen 1Devlin 2Morris 2Clarkson 2Barron 1Polvara 1Shinnie 4Hayes 2McGarry 1Duncan 1Polvara 2McGrath 1Clarkson 1Miovski 4Duk 43-4-1-2 in 3 of 4 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (3), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
20 May 2023Hearts2–1AberdeenxG 2.55–1.01
18 March 2023Aberdeen3–0HeartsxG 2.03–0.52
18 January 2023Hearts5–0AberdeenxG 3.54–1.02
16 October 2022Aberdeen2–0HeartsxG 1.73–1.36
2 March 2022Hearts2–0AberdeenxG 1.15–0.92
30 October 2021Aberdeen2–1HeartsxG 1.11–0.95

7 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 3, Aberdeen won 3, and 1 was a draw. Goals 11–9 and xG 1.61–1.19 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland373,3982540.660.12
Grant101,197220.230.14
Oda11797200.230.05
Forrest171,572400.180.06

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miovski413,2501820.500.04
Duk332,8401630.280.06
Clarkson352,948580.070.16
Duncan9952100.150.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.