Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Aberdeen 3–0 Hearts

Saturday 18 March 2023, 15:00 · Pittodrie Stadium · Round 29 · Half-time 3–0 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 16,278

Aberdeen Duk 5', 21', Pollock 28'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

AberdeenHearts
Goals30
xG2.030.52
Expected Points2.400.41

Aberdeen 73%Draw 19%Hearts 7%

Most likely score 2–0, 16%. Final score 3–0, 11%.

Hearts goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+7%4%9%2%9%2%11%6%1%5%3%2%1%15%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTCoulson on for Hayes, 41'Watkins on for Miovski, 69'Duncan on for Duk and Myslovic on for Clarkson, 84'Kingsley on for Cochrane, 34'Forrest on for Kiomourtzoglou, 46'Humphrys on for Sibbick and Grant on for Ginnelly, 76'Halliday on for Smith, 90+5'Duk 5'Duk 21'Pollock 28'Aberdeen 2.03Hearts 0.5201230153045607590HTCoulson on for Hayes, 41'Watkins on for Miovski, 69'Duncan on for Duk and Myslovic on for Clarkson, 84'Kingsley on for Cochrane, 34'Forrest on for Kiomourtzoglou, 46'Humphrys on for Sibbick and Grant on for Ginnelly, 76'Halliday on for Smith, 90+5'Duk 5'Duk 21'Pollock 28'2.030.52AberdeenHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

AberdeenHearts

2.03 +0.75xG0.52 −1.05
0.99 −0.37xG on target0.00 −1.35
22 +10Shots8 −4
6 +2.1Shots on target0 −4.3
3 +1.1Big chances1 −1.2
30 +10Touches in the opposition box24 +3
38% −10Possession62% +8
306 −58Passes513 +73
60% −12Pass accuracy72% −4
56% +17Field tilt44% −4
31 −4Final-third entries30 −4
13 +3.1Box entries10 −1.2
13.4 −3Passes per defensive action8.5 −6
7 +1.8Corners7 +1.9
21 +8Tackles30 +15
9 +0.1Interceptions6 −2.4
21 −3Clearances14 −4
0 −3.0Saves3 −0.4
12 +2.2Fouls10 −0.2
1 −0.2Offsides1 −0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Aberdeen

Myslovic 87', 0.17 xGDuk 73', 0.15 xGScales 87', 0.15 xGPollock 51', 0.14 xGPollock 63', 0.14 xGClarkson 73', 0.14 xGScales 63', 0.10 xGDuk 49', 0.09 xGMyslovic 87', 0.09 xGRamadani 33', 0.07 xGScales 86', 0.07 xGCoulson 45', 0.06 xGMcCrorie 61', 0.06 xGPollock 19', 0.04 xGClarkson 73', 0.04 xGRamadani 24', 0.03 xGDuk 48', 0.03 xGRamadani 73', 0.03 xGClarkson 49', 0.02 xGPollock 28', 0.19 xG, goalDuk 5', 0.11 xG, goalDuk 21', 0.11 xG, goal7%0.14 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.14 xG, 0 goals76%1.54 xGCentral box: 13 shots, 1.54 xG, 3 goals5%0.11 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals10%0.21 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.21 xG, 0 goals1%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Hill 42', 0.12 xGSnodgrass 49', 0.12 xGShankland 59', 0.08 xGShankland 88', 0.06 xGKingsley 88', 0.06 xGSmith 23', 0.04 xGSibbick 46', 0.02 xGMcKay 81', 0.02 xG23%0.12 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.12 xG, 0 goals26%0.14 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals43%0.23 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals4%0.02 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals4%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

AberdeenHearts

1.08 13 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.21 5 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.12 1 shot, 0 goals
0.95 9 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.18 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
5 min (5%) · Aberdeen 0.11, Hearts 0.00 xG
Aberdeen ahead
90 min (95%) · Aberdeen 1.93, Hearts 0.52 xG

Line-ups

241827421620617911RoosPollockMacDonaldScalesMcCrorieRamadaniClarksonShinnieHayesMiovskiDukGoalYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoal84'41'69'84'Aberdeen 3-5-2Barry Robson2872211528771993018ClarkHillSibbickRowlesSmithKiomourtzoglouSnodgrassCochraneShanklandGinnellyMcKayYellow cardYellow cardYellow card76'90+5'46'34'76'Hearts 3-4-3Robbie Neilson

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 41' Coulson for Hayes
  • 69' Watkins for Miovski · yellow card 90+3'
  • 84' Myslovic for Clarkson
  • 84' Duncan for Duk

Hearts substitutes

  • 34' Kingsley for Cochrane
  • 46' Forrest for Kiomourtzoglou
  • 76' Grant for Ginnelly
  • 76' Humphrys for Sibbick
  • 90+5' Halliday for Smith

Players

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RoosGK900.000.0000.0331
PollockCB90110.520.0820.2579
MacDonaldCB900.000.241−0.0925
ScalesCB900.320.0100.0229
McCrorieRWB900.060.0910.1263
Ramadani CM900.120.0110.0113
ClarksonCM8410.210.1640.0739
ShinnieCM900.000.1720.0842
HayesLWB410.000.0000.0021
Miovski ST690.000.010−0.0111
DukST8420.480.0920.1644
CoulsonDF490.060.1720.0006
Watkins FW210.000.0800.0800
MyslovicMF60.250.0000.0100
DuncanMF60.000.1310.0610

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0100
Hill CB900.120.0200.111216
Sibbick CB760.020.0110.0312
RowlesCB900.000.0000.0567
SmithRWB900.040.0100.06137
KiomourtzoglouCM460.000.000−0.0206
SnodgrassCM900.120.1120.1843
CochraneLWB340.000.0000.0103
Shankland RW900.140.071−0.0235
GinnellyST760.000.0410.0542
McKayLW900.020.0700.1291
KingsleyDF560.060.0110.0541
ForrestMF440.000.1000.2053
GrantMF140.000.0110.0112
HumphrysFW140.000.1000.0710
HallidayMF00.000.0000.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Aberdeen

MacDonald and Clarkson: 3 passesMcCrorie and Duk: 3 passesClarkson and Ramadani: 3 passesPollock and Clarkson: 4 passesMcCrorie and Shinnie: 4 passesRamadani and Duk: 4 passesMcCrorie and Miovski: 5 passesHayes and Shinnie: 5 passesClarkson and Shinnie: 5 passesPollock and McCrorie: 9 passesMcCrorie and Ramadani: 12 passesRoos: 5 completed passesScales: 3 completed passesPollock: 11 completed passesMacDonald: 5 completed passesMcCrorie: 19 completed passesHayes: 9 completed passesClarkson: 10 completed passesShinnie: 9 completed passesRamadani: 12 completed passesMiovski: 5 completed passesDuk: 5 completed passes244182721720616911RoosScalesPollockMacDonaldMcCrorieHayesClarksonShinnieRamadaniMiovskiDukStarters until 41' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Clark and Rowles: 3 passesClark and Hill: 3 passesSibbick and Snodgrass: 3 passesSibbick and McKay: 3 passesSmith and Kiomourtzoglou: 3 passesCochrane and Snodgrass: 3 passesShankland and McKay: 3 passesRowles and Snodgrass: 4 passesHill and Smith: 4 passesCochrane and Kiomourtzoglou: 4 passesRowles and Hill: 5 passesSmith and Ginnelly: 5 passesSmith and McKay: 5 passesSibbick and Smith: 6 passesRowles and Kiomourtzoglou: 7 passesSmith and Shankland: 7 passesRowles and Cochrane: 8 passesSibbick and Hill: 9 passesRowles and Sibbick: 10 passesClark: 6 completed passesRowles: 20 completed passesSibbick: 19 completed passesHill: 14 completed passesSmith: 17 completed passesCochrane: 13 completed passesKiomourtzoglou: 13 completed passesSnodgrass: 6 completed passesShankland: 8 completed passesGinnelly: 6 completed passesMcKay: 6 completed passes2815217221987793018ClarkRowlesSibbickHillSmithCochraneKiomourtzoglouSnodgrassShanklandGinnellyMcKayStarters until 34' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
RamadaniMcCrorie9
McCroriePollock7
McCrorieRamadani7
PollockMcCrorie6
ShinnieClarkson6

Hearts

FromToPasses
RowlesHill15
SibbickHill11
HillSmith11
HillSibbick9
SmithHill9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Aberdeen

5+0.25−1.712+3.16−0.11−5.06−0.77+1.18+1.014+6.57+1.710+5.23−0.49+3.913+6.58+4.511+6.63+0.63−0.91−2.72+0.65+3.86+5.12+0.82−0.10−0.80−0.20−0.50−0.20−0.611−6.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

Hearts

2−2.75−1.717+4.37+0.26+1.97−0.65−1.910+4.213+4.415+7.89+3.57+2.29+5.84−0.812+6.410+6.34+0.90−2.63+0.12−1.830.04+2.00−0.81−0.20−2.01+0.40−0.40−0.50−0.30−0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Aberdeen

0.020.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.020.040.060.040.020.010.050.020.040.01−0.010.06−0.020.030.150.17LessMore

Hearts

0.010.030.030.020.010.020.050.040.010.030.040.050.030.020.010.080.11−0.030.050.01−0.03−0.060.190.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackAberdeen1.10 → 1.14Hearts1.34 → 1.29Defence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.37 → 1.32Hearts1.24 → 1.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Aberdeen
Top six81%94%+13
St. Mirren
Top six61%55%−6
Livingston
Top six52%48%−4

From the forecast before the match (18 March 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

AberdeenHearts
Expected goals1.321.32
Win36%36%
Expected Points1.371.36
Clean sheet27%27%

Aberdeen 36%Draw 27%Hearts 36%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Hearts goalsAberdeen goals0123456+0123456+8%9%6%3%9%8%4%1%6%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 March 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowAberdeen winDrawHearts win
Aberdeen
Top six81%94%79%69%
St. Mirren
Top six61%55%63%65%
Livingston
Top six52%48%52%57%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Aberdeen

  1. W3–14 MarDundee United (A)xG 0.78–2.02
  2. W1–025 FebLivingston (H)xG 1.08–0.43
  3. L0–418 FebCeltic (A)xG 0.27–1.50
  4. W3–14 FebMotherwell (H)xG 1.94–0.85
  5. L1–31 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.94–2.21
  6. L0–628 JanHibernian (A)xG 0.52–2.60

Hearts

  1. L1–38 MarCeltic (A)xG 0.62–2.08
  2. W3–04 MarSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.63–1.19
  3. L0–219 FebMotherwell (A)xG 0.94–1.33
  4. W3–14 FebDundee United (H)xG 1.01–1.22
  5. L0–31 FebRangers (H)xG 0.86–3.07
  6. D0–029 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.63–0.34

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

AberdeenHearts
Position5th3rd
Played2828
Won, drawn, lost12–⁠2–⁠1413–⁠6–⁠9
Points38 (1.36 per game)45 (1.61 per game)
Expected Points per game1.211.36
Goals43–⁠5249–⁠40
xG per game1.28–⁠1.651.57–⁠1.60
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 1.68–⁠1.162.21, 2.00–⁠1.60
Away: points, xG per game0.71, 0.89–⁠2.141.00, 1.13–⁠1.60
ManagerBarry Robson (5)Robbie Neilson (66)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackAberdeen1.10, 5thHearts1.34, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Aberdeen1.37, 7thHearts1.24, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAberdeen attack: 1.10Hearts attack: 1.341.341.10HeartsAberdeenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAberdeen defence: 1.37Hearts defence: 1.241.371.24

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

AberdeenHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−13%+8%+16%+32%
Counter-attacks+59%+13%+38%−56%
Set pieces−19%+24%−2%+19%
Penalties+70%+126%+70%−6%
Headers+9%+10%−14%+36%
Left side−17%+23%−11%+18%
Centre−19%+2%+19%+33%
Right side+6%+18%+25%+22%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdHearts concededLeft side−17%+22%Centre−19%+33%Right side+6%+18%Open play−13%+32%Counter-attacks+59%−56%Set pieces−19%+19%Headers+9%+36%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdAberdeen concededLeft side−11%+18%Centre+19%+2%Right side+25%+23%Open play+16%+8%Counter-attacks+38%+13%Set pieces−2%+24%Headers−14%+10%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

AberdeenHearts

1.28xG1.57
1.65xG against1.60
48%Possession54%
11.6Shots11.8
14.5Shots against14.0
3.9Shots on target4.3
1.9Big chances2.2
19.9Touches in the opposition box21.3
364Passes440
71%Pass accuracy76%
5.2Corners5.1
39%Field tilt48%
35.3Final-third entries34.1
9.9Box entries11.2
16.8Passes per defensive action14.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.181.51
Ahead241.591.33
Behind271.172.14

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level321.911.32
Ahead311.501.95
Behind271.231.54

xG by period

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.243–8
16–300.170.204–5
31–450.320.2910–10
46–600.220.247–7
61–750.260.3410–9
76–900.230.339–13

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.260.176–8
16–300.190.189–4
31–450.320.318–2
46–600.200.306–10
61–750.210.278–6
76–900.380.3812–10

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTRoos 21Gorter 4Lewis 3McCrorie 16Richardson 9Pollock 2Stewart 21MacDonald 5Scales 20McCrorie 4MacKenzie 3Duk 12Coulson 11MacKenzie 2Ramadani 25Barron 7Richardson 3Clarkson 7McCrorie 6Shinnie 6Kennedy 13Besuijen 4Barron 3Clarkson 9Coulson 5Besuijen 5Hayes 9Duk 7Clarkson 6Miovski 284-2-3-1 in 11 of 28 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (11), 3-5-2 (9), 3-1-4-2 (3), 4-4-2 (3), 4-3-3 (2)

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWGordon 16Clark 11Stewart 1Kingsley 11Smith 10Hill 6Sibbick 19Halkett 5Neilson 4Rowles 17Cochrane 10Smith 8Atkinson 4Forrest 4Devlin 15Halliday 6Kiomourtzoglou 5Snodgrass 13Grant 4Smith 1Cochrane 11Halliday 8Snodgrass 5Ginnelly 9Forrest 5McKay 4Shankland 16Ginnelly 6Humphrys 3McKay 17Mackay-Steven 3Forrest 23-4-3 in 7 of 28 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (7), 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-4-2-1 (6), 4-1-4-1 (4), 3-5-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
18 January 2023Hearts5–0AberdeenxG 3.54–1.02
16 October 2022Aberdeen2–0HeartsxG 1.73–1.36
2 March 2022Hearts2–0AberdeenxG 1.15–0.92
30 October 2021Aberdeen2–1HeartsxG 1.11–0.95
22 August 2021Hearts1–1AberdeenxG 1.17–0.54

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Aberdeen won 2, Hearts won 2, and 1 was a draw. Goals 5–9 and xG 1.06–1.63 per game.

Key players

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miovski282,2291500.580.02
Besuijen9897310.230.18
Duk201,7971120.280.04
Hayes141,244150.090.19

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland232,1521740.760.10
Humphrys7661300.440.03
Grant7832220.280.18
Ginnelly181,472820.260.19

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.