Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Ross County 1–2 Celtic

Sunday 6 October 2024, 12:00 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 7 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Kevin Clancy · Attendance 6,372

Ross County Hale 43' (pen)

Celtic Johnston 76', Kühn 88'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountyCeltic
Goals12
xG0.971.51
Non-penalty xG0.181.51
Expected Points0.951.72

Ross County 20%Draw 33%Celtic 46%

Most likely score 1–1, 26%. Final score 1–2, 18%.

Celtic goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+4%6%5%2%13%18%9%3%2%4%4%2%26%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTWhite on for Denholm, 46'Loturi on for Hale, 65'Grieves on for Chilvers, 66'Samuel on for Nisbet and Brown on for Efete, 76'Bernardo on for Engels, McCowan on for Hatate, and Furuhashi on for Idah, 61'Forrest on for Maeda, 68'Hale 43' (pen)Johnston 76'Kühn 88'Celtic 1.51Ross County 0.9700.511.520153045607590HTWhite on for Denholm, 46'Loturi on for Hale, 65'Grieves on for Chilvers, 66'Samuel on for Nisbet and Brown on for Efete, 76'Bernardo on for Engels, McCowan on for Hatate, and Furuhashi on for Idah, 61'Forrest on for Maeda, 68'Hale 43' (pen)Johnston 76'Kühn 88'1.510.97Ross CountyCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountyCeltic

0.97 −0.08xG1.51 −1.15
0.18Non-penalty xG1.51
1.10 +0.02xG on target3.68 +1.03
8 −3Shots24 +4
5 +1.1Shots on target6 −2.2
1 −0.4Big chances3 −2.5
7 −8Touches in the opposition box47 +6
18% −22Possession82% +10
169 −139Passes784 +75
56% −9Pass accuracy88% 0
10% −28Field tilt90% +10
12 −21Final-third entries93 +24
3 −4.1Box entries29 +7.3
28.0 +12.8Passes per defensive action8.6 +0.1
1 −1.9Corners9 +0.7
12 −7Tackles10 −7
10 −1.1Interceptions3 −5.7
35 +5Clearances9 −8
4 +1.4Saves4 +2.3
11 −0.3Fouls11 +2.2
1 −0.4Offsides1 −0.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

Lopata 29', 0.05 xGChilvers 18', 0.03 xGNisbet 45+2', 0.03 xGHale 18', 0.02 xGLeak 45+3', 0.02 xGHale 51', 0.02 xGEfete 35', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals44%0.08 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals11%0.02 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals33%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals11%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Kühn 14', 0.30 xGMaeda 57', 0.22 xGIdah 9', 0.10 xGHatate 60', 0.10 xGMcGregor 37', 0.08 xGMaeda 31', 0.07 xGIdah 7', 0.06 xGMcGregor 53', 0.06 xGIdah 37', 0.05 xGValle 6', 0.04 xGMcGregor 76', 0.04 xGMaeda 21', 0.03 xGKühn 60', 0.03 xGMcGregor 71', 0.03 xGForrest 86', 0.03 xGForrest 90+6', 0.03 xGValle 13', 0.02 xGScales 21', 0.02 xGEngels 29', 0.02 xGForrest 70', 0.02 xGForrest 73', 0.02 xGFuruhashi 76', 0.02 xGKühn 88', 0.09 xG, goalJohnston 76', 0.03 xG, goal38%0.58 xGSix-yard box: 4 shots, 0.58 xG, 1 goal38%0.57 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 0.57 xG, 1 goal9%0.14 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals15%0.22 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountyCeltic

0.15 5 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.14 16 shots, 1 goal
0.03 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.37 8 shots, 1 goal
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
55 min (55%) · Ross County 0.90, Celtic 0.97 xG
Ross County ahead
36 min (36%) · Ross County 0.07, Celtic 0.51 xG
Celtic ahead
9 min (9%) · Ross County 0.00, Celtic 0.03 xG

Line-ups

14203248231910159LaidlawWrightLopataLeakEfeteRandallNisbetCampbellChilversDenholmHaleYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal76'76'66'46'65'Ross County 3-4-2-1Don Cowie12651127424138109SchmeichelJohnstonTrustyScalesValleEngelsMcGregorHatateMaedaKühnIdahGoalGoalYellow card61'61'68'61'Celtic 4-4-1-1Brendan Rodgers

Ross County substitutes

  • 46' White for Denholm
  • 65' Loturi for Hale
  • 66' Grieves for Chilvers
  • 76' Brown for Efete
  • 76' Samuel for Nisbet

Celtic substitutes

  • 61' McCowan for Hatate
  • 61' Bernardo for Engels
  • 61' Furuhashi for Idah
  • 68' Forrest for Maeda

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0000.0450
WrightCB900.000.1210.1819
LopataCB900.050.0200.03312
LeakCB900.020.0000.03410
Efete RWB760.010.0000.0236
Randall CM900.000.0000.0555
NisbetCM760.030.0100.0104
Campbell LWB900.000.0000.0107
ChilversAM660.030.083−0.0103
DenholmAM460.000.011−0.0311
HaleST6510.830.0000.0101
WhiteFW440.000.0000.0014
LoturiMF250.000.0000.0000
GrievesMF240.000.000−0.0100
BrownMF140.000.0000.0002
SamuelFW140.000.0000.0000

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchmeichelGK900.000.0000.0320
JohnstonRB90110.030.3730.25123
TrustyCB900.000.0200.18104
ScalesCB900.020.0200.1485
ValleLB900.060.1420.34112
EngelsRM610.020.1930.0341
McGregorCM9010.210.1820.27112
HatateCM610.100.0820.0721
MaedaLM680.320.2720.2061
Kühn AM9010.420.1110.23142
IdahST610.210.051−0.1500
McCowanMF290.000.0710.0010
BernardoMF290.000.062−0.0201
FuruhashiFW290.020.0210.0010
ForrestFW220.090.0900.0441

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Ross County

Laidlaw and Leak: 3 passesWright and Chilvers: 3 passesWright and Denholm: 3 passesNisbet and Chilvers: 3 passesNisbet and Randall: 4 passesRandall and Denholm: 4 passesLaidlaw and Efete: 5 passesLaidlaw: 8 completed passesLopata: 4 completed passesWright: 8 completed passesLeak: 7 completed passesEfete: 3 completed passesCampbell: 6 completed passesNisbet: 9 completed passesRandall: 7 completed passesChilvers: 7 completed passesDenholm: 7 completed passesHale: 1 completed passes12043241923810159LaidlawLopataWrightLeakEfeteCampbellNisbetRandallChilversDenholmHaleStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Trusty and Valle: 7 passesMcGregor and Maeda: 7 passesEngels and Kühn: 8 passesEngels and Hatate: 9 passesMcGregor and Idah: 9 passesSchmeichel and Scales: 10 passesHatate and McGregor: 10 passesHatate and Maeda: 10 passesScales and Hatate: 11 passesValle and Hatate: 11 passesTrusty and Engels: 13 passesEngels and McGregor: 15 passesSchmeichel and Trusty: 16 passesJohnston and Kühn: 16 passesJohnston and Engels: 19 passesJohnston and McGregor: 20 passesScales and Trusty: 25 passesScales and McGregor: 25 passesTrusty and McGregor: 25 passesValle and Maeda: 25 passesScales and Valle: 32 passesValle and McGregor: 32 passesJohnston and Trusty: 33 passesSchmeichel: 22 completed passesJohnston: 56 completed passesScales: 66 completed passesTrusty: 70 completed passesValle: 59 completed passesEngels: 36 completed passesHatate: 27 completed passesMcGregor: 73 completed passesKühn: 18 completed passesIdah: 11 completed passesMaeda: 23 completed passes12561127414210938SchmeichelJohnstonScalesTrustyValleEngelsHatateMcGregorKühnIdahMaedaStarters until 61' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
LaidlawEfete5
LaidlawWhite4
CampbellRandall3
WrightChilvers3
RandallDenholm3

Celtic

FromToPasses
ScalesValle28
TrustyJohnston28
JohnstonMcGregor23
JohnstonTrusty22
McGregorValle22

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

1−4.913+6.420+0.99+0.66+0.35−2.710+3.012+6.410+3.64−2.93−3.63−1.34+1.12−1.38+1.32−1.41−2.71−1.43−0.11−1.73+0.320.01−0.15+4.02−0.31+0.30−0.40−0.600.00−1.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 7 matches

Celtic

1−1.00−3.03−1.37+5.07+0.72−3.32−3.36−2.511+2.51−3.73−1.33−0.23−2.57+0.53−0.81−3.51−0.85+2.53−1.81−2.03+1.02+0.22−1.20−3.32+0.51+0.310.02+0.50−1.32−7.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.010.030.02−0.010.020.010.020.03−0.03−0.010.010.020.20LessMore

Celtic

0.010.010.030.040.030.030.030.120.040.060.060.030.120.140.110.070.09−0.090.03−0.010.03−0.07−0.100.310.060.47LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackRoss County1.05 → 1.05Celtic2.49 → 2.46Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.53 → 1.53Celtic0.71 → 0.72

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
Top six15%14%−1
11th18%19%+1
Bottom16%17%+1
Celtic
Title93%94%+1
Hearts
Top six32%32%0
11th9%8%−1
Bottom5%5%0
Rangers
Title7%6%−1

From the forecast before the match (6 October 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountyCeltic
Expected goals0.652.58
Win7%79%
Expected Points0.352.50
Clean sheet8%52%

Ross County 7%Draw 15%Celtic 79%

Most likely score 0–2, 13%. Both sides score 45%.

Celtic goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+4%7%4%2%2%7%9%7%5%2%2%2%3%2%2%10%13%11%

From the forecast as it stood on 6 October 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawCeltic win
Ross County
Top six15%27%18%14%
11th18%13%17%19%
Bottom16%8%15%17%
Celtic
Title93%88%92%94%
Hearts
Top six32%24%32%32%
11th9%12%9%8%
Bottom5%5%7%5%
Rangers
Title7%12%8%6%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. D1–128 SepHearts (A)xG 0.84–1.94
  2. D3–321 SepSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.28–0.55
  3. W2–014 SepDundee FC (H)xG 1.43–0.66
  4. L0–131 AugAberdeen (H)xG 1.05–0.35
  5. L0–624 AugRangers (A)xG 0.24–3.76
  6. D1–110 AugDundee United (H)xG 2.23–1.34

Celtic

  1. W6–028 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 3.38–0.32
  2. W2–014 SepHearts (H)xG 2.88–0.65
  3. W3–01 SepRangers (H)xG 1.55–1.14
  4. W3–025 AugSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.46–0.15
  5. W2–011 AugHibernian (A)xG 2.60–0.10
  6. W4–04 AugKilmarnock (H)xG 3.11–0.20

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountyCeltic
Position7th1st
Played76
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠4–⁠26–⁠0–⁠0
Points7 (1.00 per game)18 (3.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.352.66
Goals7–⁠1220–⁠0
xG per game1.05–⁠1.402.66–⁠0.43
Home: points, xG per game1.25, 1.50–⁠0.733.00, 2.51–⁠0.66
Away: points, xG per game0.67, 0.46–⁠2.303.00, 2.81–⁠0.19
ManagerDon Cowie (22)Brendan Rodgers (44)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackRoss County1.05, 11thCeltic2.49, 1stDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.53, 10thCeltic0.71, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctRoss County attack: 1.05Celtic attack: 2.492.491.05CelticRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctRoss County defence: 1.53Celtic defence: 0.711.530.71

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountyCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−51%+12%+151%−57%
Counter-attacks−32%+64%+196%−92%
Set pieces−26%−6%−44%−77%
Penalties+151%−100%−2%−100%
Headers−23%−17%−27%−70%
Left side−23%−20%+145%−60%
Centre−46%+25%+62%−69%
Right side−54%+17%+146%−65%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdCeltic concededLeft side−23%−65%Centre−46%−69%Right side−54%−60%Open play−51%−57%Counter-attacks−32%−92%Set pieces−26%−77%Headers−23%−70%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdRoss County concededLeft side+145%+17%Centre+62%+25%Right side+146%−20%Open play+151%+12%Counter-attacks+196%+64%Set pieces−44%−6%Headers−27%−17%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountyCeltic

1.05xG2.66
1.40xG against0.43
40%Possession72%
10.9Shots20.5
12.4Shots against6.0
3.9Shots on target8.2
1.4Big chances5.5
15.0Touches in the opposition box40.7
308Passes709
65%Pass accuracy88%
2.9Corners8.3
37%Field tilt81%
33.4Final-third entries68.5
7.1Box entries21.7
15.2Passes per defensive action8.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.091.03
Ahead230.971.17
Behind211.092.50

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level213.990.39
Ahead692.250.44
Behind0––

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.201–0
16–300.150.311–1
31–450.310.162–2
46–600.040.200–3
61–750.160.240–2
76–900.260.293–4

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.400.072–0
16–300.390.053–0
31–450.710.026–0
46–600.510.063–0
61–750.330.063–0
76–900.330.173–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTLaidlaw 7Wright 7Efete 2Lopata 4Leak 4Nightingale 3Campbell 1Brown 4Efete 1Denholm 1Nisbet 4Loturi 2Denholm 1Randall 7Harmon 2White 1Chilvers 2Grieves 1Allardice 1Harmon 3Campbell 2Denholm 1White 4Brophy 2Chilvers 1Hale 73-5-2 in 3 of 7 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWSchmeichel 6Johnston 6Carter-Vickers 5Trusty 1Scales 6Taylor 6Bernardo 3Engels 2O'Riley 2McGregor 6Hatate 5Kühn 5Forrest 1Furuhashi 5Idah 1Maeda 4Forrest 24-3-3 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
27 January 2024Celtic1–0Ross CountyxG 2.02–1.08
4 November 2023Ross County0–3CelticxG 0.26–3.40
5 August 2023Celtic4–2Ross CountyxG 4.15–1.13
2 April 2023Ross County0–2CelticxG 0.40–3.30
12 November 2022Celtic2–1Ross CountyxG 1.88–0.84
6 August 2022Ross County1–3CelticxG 0.39–1.75

13 league meetings since 2020/21: Ross County won 1, Celtic won 12, and 0 were drawn. Goals 6–33 and xG 0.59–2.76 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Hale7570300.390.01
White5452100.270.02
Wright7630200.080.01
Randall7609000.030.02

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Johnston6504110.060.32
Taylor6481030.060.20
McGregor6525400.050.16
Scales6540100.040.05

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.