Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Kilmarnock 1–4 Celtic

Sunday 16 April 2023, 12:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 32 · Half-time 1–4 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 8,201

Kilmarnock Donnelly 45'

Celtic Furuhashi 7', Maeda 12', O'Riley 18', 27'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockCeltic
Goals14
xG1.732.56
Non-penalty xG1.731.77
Expected Points0.861.92

Kilmarnock 21%Draw 22%Celtic 57%

Most likely score 2–2, 10%. Final score 1–4, 5%.

Celtic goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+2%4%4%2%6%5%2%5%4%2%3%5%5%2%1%2%1%10%8%10%8%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTPower on for Murray and Dorsett on for Doidge, 31'Jones on for Chambers and Lyons on for Watson, 84'Wales on for Armstrong, 90'Oh on for Furuhashi, 46'Mooy on for O'Riley and Turnbull on for McGregor, 68'Vata on for Maeda, 69'Summers on for Haksabanovic, 88'Donnelly 45'Furuhashi 7'Maeda 12'O'Riley 18'O'Riley 27'Celtic 2.56Kilmarnock 1.7301230153045607590HTPower on for Murray and Dorsett on for Doidge, 31'Jones on for Chambers and Lyons on for Watson, 84'Wales on for Armstrong, 90'Oh on for Furuhashi, 46'Mooy on for O'Riley and Turnbull on for McGregor, 68'Vata on for Maeda, 69'Summers on for Haksabanovic, 88'Donnelly 45'Furuhashi 7'Maeda 12'O'Riley 18'O'Riley 27'2.561.73KilmarnockCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockCeltic

1.73 +0.71xG2.56 +0.13
1.73Non-penalty xG1.77
1.36 +0.63xG on target2.39 −0.08
14 +2Shots16 −3
5 +2.0Shots on target6 −1.3
3 +1.6Big chances5 +1.6
18 −2Touches in the opposition box46 +4
23% −21Possession77% +5
208 −116Passes726 +62
59% −6Pass accuracy87% 0
24% −20Field tilt76% −4
22 −12Final-third entries64 −20
7 −2.1Box entries26 +1.1
20.0 +5.3Passes per defensive action8.2 −1.2
4 −0.5Corners5 −2.6
17 0Tackles17 +4
19 +7.5Interceptions8 −0.2
15 −4Clearances12 −2
2 −1.3Saves3 +1.5
13 +1Fouls15 +5
0 −1.9Offsides0 −2.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Chambers 73', 0.27 xGVassell 90+2', 0.26 xGVassell 67', 0.24 xGArmstrong 45', 0.12 xGVassell 90+2', 0.12 xGDonnelly 45', 0.07 xGWright 35', 0.06 xGArmstrong 5', 0.05 xGVassell 24', 0.04 xGJones 84', 0.04 xGArmstrong 71', 0.03 xGJones 88', 0.03 xGArmstrong 26', 0.02 xGDonnelly 45', 0.37 xG, goal14%0.24 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.24 xG, 0 goals65%1.11 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 1.11 xG, 1 goal18%0.31 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.31 xG, 0 goals3%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Oh 76', 0.33 xGMaeda 22', 0.20 xGFuruhashi 40', 0.14 xGO'Riley 13', 0.11 xGStarfelt 83', 0.11 xGStarfelt 17', 0.08 xGO'Riley 16', 0.07 xGJohnston 90+3', 0.06 xGIwata 85', 0.05 xGTaylor 26', 0.03 xGMaeda 27', 0.03 xGMaeda 12', 0.22 xG, goalO'Riley 27', 0.15 xG, goalFuruhashi 7', 0.10 xG, goalO'Riley 18', 0.09 xG, goal31%0.55 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.55 xG, 1 goal50%0.88 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.88 xG, 2 goals15%0.26 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.26 xG, 1 goal5%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockCeltic

1.37 10 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.24 11 shots, 4 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.14 1 shot, 0 goals
0.36 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.39 3 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
7 min (8%) · Kilmarnock 0.05, Celtic 0.10 xG
Celtic ahead
86 min (92%) · Kilmarnock 1.68, Celtic 2.46 xG

Line-ups

20251924113422152623WalkerMayoTaylorWrightChambersArmstrongWatsonDonnellyMurrayDoidgeVassellGoal84'90'84'31'31'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes1241832442933388HartJohnstonStarfeltKobayashiTaylorIwataMcGregorHaksabanovicO'RileyMaedaFuruhashiYellow cardGoalGoalGoalGoal68'88'68'69'46'Celtic 4-2-3-1Ange Postecoglou

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 31' Dorsett for Doidge
  • 31' Power for Murray
  • 84' Lyons for Watson
  • 84' Jones for Chambers
  • 90' Wales for Armstrong

Celtic substitutes

  • 46' Oh for Furuhashi · yellow card 71'
  • 68' Mooy for O'Riley
  • 68' Turnbull for McGregor
  • 69' Vata for Maeda
  • 88' Summers for Haksabanovic

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WalkerGK900.000.0000.0110
MayoRB900.000.0000.0227
TaylorCB900.000.0100.0448
WrightCB900.060.0000.1706
ChambersLB840.270.000−0.0123
ArmstrongRM900.230.4240.2652
WatsonCM840.000.0110.0013
DonnellyCM9010.440.0100.0029
MurrayLM310.000.000−0.0201
DoidgeST310.000.0010.0111
VassellST900.650.0100.0642
DorsettDF590.000.0100.0329
PowerMF590.000.0200.0123
LyonsMF60.000.011−0.0100
JonesMF60.070.1010.0830
WalesFW00.000.000––0

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0112
Johnston RB9010.060.4210.2444
StarfeltCB900.190.0100.1254
KobayashiCB900.000.0400.31236
TaylorLB9010.030.1410.23156
IwataDM900.050.3400.0631
McGregorDM680.000.0600.0630
HaksabanovicRW880.000.0600.07105
O'RileyAM6820.420.2640.0655
MaedaLW6910.450.1410.0840
FuruhashiST4611.030.0000.0712
Oh FW440.330.0100.0112
MooyMF220.000.3110.2333
TurnbullMF220.000.2220.0610
VataFW210.000.2010.1910
SummersMF20.000.0100.0311

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Walker and Doidge: 3 passesTaylor and Donnelly: 3 passesDonnelly and Murray: 3 passesWalker: 3 completed passesMayo: 3 completed passesTaylor: 4 completed passesWright: 1 completed passesChambers: 2 completed passesArmstrong: 3 completed passesWatson: 2 completed passesDonnelly: 9 completed passesMurray: 4 completed passesDoidge: 2 completed passesVassell: 1 completed passes20251924113422152623WalkerMayoTaylorWrightChambersArmstrongWatsonDonnellyMurrayDoidgeVassellStarters until 31' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Taylor and O'Riley: 6 passesJohnston and McGregor: 7 passesKobayashi and O'Riley: 7 passesStarfelt and Taylor: 7 passesStarfelt and Iwata: 8 passesJohnston and Iwata: 9 passesStarfelt and Haksabanovic: 9 passesStarfelt and O'Riley: 9 passesHart and Kobayashi: 10 passesKobayashi and Iwata: 10 passesIwata and Haksabanovic: 10 passesStarfelt and McGregor: 11 passesIwata and McGregor: 11 passesMcGregor and O'Riley: 11 passesMcGregor and Maeda: 11 passesJohnston and Haksabanovic: 12 passesTaylor and Maeda: 12 passesJohnston and O'Riley: 14 passesKobayashi and Maeda: 15 passesTaylor and McGregor: 21 passesKobayashi and McGregor: 23 passesJohnston and Starfelt: 24 passesKobayashi and Starfelt: 36 passesKobayashi and Taylor: 37 passesHart: 13 completed passesJohnston: 43 completed passesKobayashi: 74 completed passesStarfelt: 57 completed passesTaylor: 43 completed passesIwata: 29 completed passesMcGregor: 51 completed passesHaksabanovic: 17 completed passesO'Riley: 24 completed passesMaeda: 20 completed passesFuruhashi: 1 completed passes1218432442933388HartJohnstonKobayashiStarfeltTaylorIwataMcGregorHaksabanovicO'RileyMaedaFuruhashiStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PowerMayo6
WalkerVassell6
DonnellyPower5
PowerArmstrong5
MayoArmstrong4

Celtic

FromToPasses
KobayashiTaylor38
StarfeltKobayashi34
TaylorKobayashi23
JohnstonStarfelt23
KobayashiStarfelt22

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

3−2.412+5.19−4.412+5.08+3.39+1.58+0.57+0.28+0.26−0.97+1.17+3.23−2.88+3.05+0.72−0.33−0.75+1.08+5.75+3.00−1.03+1.25+2.52+0.63+2.20−0.81+0.62+1.21−4.80−4.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 31 matches

Celtic

3+0.42−1.211+3.22−3.86+1.09+3.88+4.37+2.76−0.319+11.26+0.93−1.42−1.63−3.111+3.06+1.21−1.81−1.74+0.51−4.82−1.43+1.30−2.00−2.32−0.62+0.60−0.60−0.810.01−0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 31 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.030.010.030.010.020.05−0.010.010.020.07−0.020.010.040.01−0.020.050.180.16LessMore

Celtic

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.030.040.020.010.040.040.140.040.060.030.090.060.120.050.220.010.090.060.20−0.050.030.050.37LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackKilmarnock1.00 → 1.01Celtic2.39 → 2.39Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.41 → 1.44Celtic0.64 → 0.65

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
11th32%33%+1
Bottom29%32%+3
Celtic
Title>99%>99%0
Dundee United
11th30%29%−1
Bottom22%21%−1
Ross County
11th29%29%0
Bottom46%45%−1

From the forecast before the match (16 April 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockCeltic
Expected goals0.612.43
Win7%77%
Expected Points0.372.48
Clean sheet9%54%

Kilmarnock 7%Draw 16%Celtic 77%

Most likely score 0–2, 14%. Both sides score 42%.

Celtic goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+5%7%3%2%3%7%9%7%4%2%1%2%3%2%1%11%14%11%

From the forecast as it stood on 16 April 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawCeltic win
Kilmarnock
11th32%23%28%33%
Bottom29%10%24%32%
Celtic
Title>99%98%>99%>99%
Dundee United
11th30%35%32%29%
Bottom22%32%25%21%
Ross County
11th29%30%29%29%
Bottom46%53%47%45%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–28 AprAberdeen (A)xG 1.09–2.20
  2. W2–11 AprHearts (H)xG 2.72–0.68
  3. D1–118 MarSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.31–0.57
  4. L1–34 MarRangers (A)xG 0.79–3.55
  5. D1–125 FebMotherwell (H)xG 0.75–1.24
  6. L0–218 FebHibernian (A)xG 0.82–2.94

Celtic

  1. W3–28 AprRangers (H)xG 1.09–0.69
  2. W2–02 AprRoss County (A)xG 3.30–0.40
  3. W3–118 MarHibernian (H)xG 3.96–0.90
  4. W3–18 MarHearts (H)xG 2.08–0.62
  5. W5–15 MarSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.48–0.79
  6. W4–018 FebAberdeen (H)xG 1.50–0.27

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockCeltic
Position11th1st
Played3131
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠7–⁠1729–⁠1–⁠1
Points28 (0.90 per game)88 (2.84 per game)
Expected Points per game1.152.44
Goals26–⁠5498–⁠23
xG per game1.02–⁠1.412.43–⁠0.62
Home: points, xG per game1.73, 1.36–⁠1.053.00, 2.39–⁠0.55
Away: points, xG per game0.12, 0.69–⁠1.752.67, 2.47–⁠0.70
ManagerDerek McInnes (31)Ange Postecoglou (69)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.25AttackKilmarnock1.00, 8thCeltic2.39, 1stDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.41, 9thCeltic0.64, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprKilmarnock attack: 1.00Celtic attack: 2.392.391.00CelticKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprKilmarnock defence: 1.41Celtic defence: 0.641.410.64

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−34%+8%+120%−64%
Counter-attacks−45%+8%+60%−85%
Set pieces+35%+18%+30%−52%
Penalties−67%−18%−1%+15%
Headers+7%−16%+58%−44%
Left side+2%−4%+72%−54%
Centre−32%+20%+127%−64%
Right side−13%+9%+65%−65%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdCeltic concededLeft side+2%−65%Centre−32%−64%Right side−13%−54%Open play−34%−64%Counter-attacks−45%−85%Set pieces+35%−52%Headers+7%−44%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+72%+9%Centre+127%+20%Right side+65%−4%Open play+120%+8%Counter-attacks+60%+8%Set pieces+30%+18%Headers+58%−16%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockCeltic

1.02xG2.43
1.41xG against0.62
44%Possession72%
11.5Shots19.0
12.8Shots against6.3
3.0Shots on target7.3
1.4Big chances3.4
19.5Touches in the opposition box41.8
324Passes664
65%Pass accuracy87%
4.5Corners7.6
43%Field tilt80%
33.6Final-third entries84.2
9.1Box entries24.9
14.7Passes per defensive action9.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level311.181.12
Ahead181.011.21
Behind400.891.73

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level302.330.62
Ahead542.460.64
Behind62.560.47

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.203–11
16–300.170.254–12
31–450.220.236–7
46–600.280.226–7
61–750.120.204–8
76–900.110.323–9

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.330.1017–3
16–300.290.069–1
31–450.460.1518–6
46–600.400.1517–7
61–750.290.0911–2
76–900.660.0826–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTWalker 21Hemming 10Mayo 13Alebiosu 11Armstrong 4Wright 20Taylor 19Mayo 10Dorsett 7Chrisene 7McInroy 6Chambers 5Armstrong 13McKenzie 5Jones 3Polworth 12Armstrong 4Alston 4Power 21Donnelly 9McKenzie 3McKenzie 12Jones 8Taylor 3Doidge 14Lafferty 8Cameron 5Vassell 8Robinson 5Shaw 54-4-2 in 8 of 31 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (8), 3-5-2 (4), 3-4-2-1 (4), 5-3-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-5-1-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 4-5-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-3-3-1 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 31Johnston 11Ralston 10Juranovic 8Carter-Vickers 28Welsh 4Starfelt 19Jenz 10Kobayashi 1Taylor 23Bernabei 7Juranovic 1O'Riley 26Mooy 13McGregor 24Haksabanovic 1Hatate 22Turnbull 6Iwata 1Jota 11Abada 10Maeda 5Furuhashi 26Giakoumakis 4Oh 1Maeda 16Jota 11Haksabanovic 34-3-3 in 29 of 31 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (29), 4-2-3-1 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
7 January 2023Celtic2–0KilmarnockxG 3.48–0.08
14 August 2022Kilmarnock0–5CelticxG 0.69–3.34
2 February 2021Kilmarnock0–4CelticxG 1.87–2.13
13 December 2020Celtic2–0KilmarnockxG 1.83–0.79
9 August 2020Kilmarnock1–1CelticxG 1.06–0.74

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 0, Celtic won 4, and 1 was a draw. Goals 1–14 and xG 0.90–2.30 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong242,146750.200.22
Robinson5525200.250.08
Vassell8662010.220.10
Shaw7628000.250.02

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Giakoumakis4685610.870.09
Abada101,2551040.530.42
Jota221,85911100.480.42
Forrest5480420.570.27

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.