Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

St. Mirren 2–2 Hibernian

Wednesday 8 November 2023, 19:45 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 12 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Steven McLean · Attendance 5,963

St. Mirren O'Hara 53' (pen), Jamieson 90+2'

Hibernian Campbell 12', Newell 69'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenHibernian
Goals22
xG1.600.89
Non-penalty xG0.810.89
Expected Points1.950.76

St. Mirren 55%Draw 29%Hibernian 16%

Most likely score 1–1, 19%. Final score 2–2, 6%.

Hibernian goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+4%4%2%7%2%12%13%6%1%5%5%2%1%1%15%19%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTOlusanya on for Mandron and Baccus on for Boyd-Munce, 63'Greive on for Kiltie, 77'Jamieson on for McMenamin, 78'Miller on for Whittaker, 67'Jeggo on for Levitt, 83'Landers on for Vente, 86'O'Hara 53' (pen)Jamieson 90+2'Campbell 12'Newell 69'St. Mirren 1.60Hibernian 0.8900.511.520153045607590HTOlusanya on for Mandron and Baccus on for Boyd-Munce, 63'Greive on for Kiltie, 77'Jamieson on for McMenamin, 78'Miller on for Whittaker, 67'Jeggo on for Levitt, 83'Landers on for Vente, 86'O'Hara 53' (pen)Jamieson 90+2'Campbell 12'Newell 69'1.600.89St. MirrenHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenHibernian

1.60 +0.54xG0.89 −0.33
0.81Non-penalty xG0.89
1.37 +0.03xG on target1.29 +0.10
17 +7.8Shots9 −3.1
4 +0.6Shots on target4 0.0
2 −0.4Big chances1 −1.2
20 +5Touches in the opposition box20 −8
50% +9Possession50% −2
400 +103Passes425 +13
78% +16Pass accuracy78% +2
62% +26Field tilt38% −12
52 +23Final-third entries32 −6
5 −4.1Box entries7 −6.1
17.2 −1Passes per defensive action22.1 +8
3 −0.9Corners1 −4.1
13 −1Tackles10 −6
3 −5.8Interceptions6 −2.5
14 −13Clearances35 +15
2 −1.2Saves2 −0.4
9 −2.3Fouls9 −0.7
0 −2.1Offsides2 +0.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Jamieson 90+2', 0.11 xGO'Hara 90+2', 0.10 xGO'Hara 21', 0.06 xGGreive 81', 0.06 xGKiltie 43', 0.05 xGFraser 46', 0.05 xGMandron 39', 0.04 xGBaccus 90+4', 0.04 xGTanser 8', 0.03 xGO'Hara 26', 0.03 xGBoyd-Munce 41', 0.03 xGTanser 68', 0.03 xGTaylor 15', 0.02 xGKiltie 45+1', 0.02 xGJamieson 90+2', 0.02 xGJamieson 90+2', 0.11 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals35%0.28 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.28 xG, 1 goal14%0.11 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals46%0.37 xGEdge of the box: 8 shots, 0.37 xG, 0 goals6%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Whittaker 33', 0.14 xGYouan 33', 0.10 xGYouan 35', 0.08 xGYouan 21', 0.07 xGYouan 33', 0.06 xGYouan 60', 0.04 xGVente 22', 0.03 xGNewell 69', 0.34 xG, goalCampbell 12', 0.04 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals78%0.70 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.70 xG, 1 goal3%0.03 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals19%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.17 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenHibernian

0.66 13 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.90 9 shots, 2 goals
0.15 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
32 min (33%) · St. Mirren 0.10, Hibernian 0.42 xG
Hibernian ahead
65 min (67%) · St. Mirren 1.50, Hibernian 0.47 xG

Line-ups

12213523615310911HemmingFraserGogicTaylorStrainO'HaraBoyd-MunceTanserMcMenaminMandronKiltieYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card63'78'63'77'St. Mirren 3-4-3Stephen Robinson14953321761129329MarshallWhittakerFishBushiriObitaYouanLevittNewellTavaresCampbellVenteYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoal67'83'86'Hibernian 4-4-1-1Nick Montgomery

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 63' Baccus for Boyd-Munce
  • 63' Olusanya for Mandron
  • 77' Greive for Kiltie
  • 78' Jamieson for McMenamin · goal 90+2'

Hibernian substitutes

  • 67' Miller for Whittaker
  • 83' Jeggo for Levitt
  • 86' Landers for Vente

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0000.0232
FraserCB900.050.0200.0690
Gogic CB900.000.0100.0762
Taylor CB900.020.0200.12127
StrainRWB900.000.0300.0273
O'HaraCM9010.980.010−0.0406
Boyd-MunceCM630.030.1510.0352
TanserLWB900.060.1820.23103
McMenamin RW780.000.0510.0521
MandronST630.040.0110.0312
KiltieLW770.070.020−0.0411
BaccusMF270.040.0110.0321
OlusanyaFW270.000.000−0.0201
GreiveFW130.060.0000.0100
JamiesonFW1210.250.0110.0001

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0000.0121
WhittakerRB670.140.2000.0520
FishCB900.000.0000.04312
BushiriCB900.000.0000.0428
Obita LB900.000.0100.06108
YouanRM900.330.0300.1653
LevittCM830.000.0100.0121
Newell CM9010.340.0520.0449
TavaresLM900.000.0720.1092
CampbellAM9010.040.2220.0713
VenteST8610.030.021−0.0212
MillerDF230.000.0000.0103
JeggoMF70.000.0000.0004
LandersFW40.000.0000.0010

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Gogic and Strain: 4 passesTaylor and Fraser: 4 passesTaylor and Boyd-Munce: 4 passesStrain and Boyd-Munce: 4 passesStrain and Mandron: 4 passesO'Hara and Kiltie: 4 passesBoyd-Munce and Mandron: 4 passesGogic and Tanser: 5 passesFraser and O'Hara: 5 passesTanser and Mandron: 5 passesGogic and O'Hara: 6 passesGogic and Boyd-Munce: 6 passesO'Hara and Boyd-Munce: 6 passesBoyd-Munce and Kiltie: 12 passesStrain and O'Hara: 13 passesStrain and McMenamin: 13 passesTaylor and Tanser: 14 passesTanser and Kiltie: 14 passesTanser and Boyd-Munce: 15 passesGogic and Taylor: 16 passesGogic and Fraser: 18 passesFraser and Strain: 23 passesHemming: 10 completed passesGogic: 31 completed passesTaylor: 23 completed passesFraser: 29 completed passesStrain: 38 completed passesTanser: 26 completed passesO'Hara: 20 completed passesBoyd-Munce: 29 completed passesMcMenamin: 9 completed passesMandron: 9 completed passesKiltie: 18 completed passes11352223361510911HemmingGogicTaylorFraserStrainTanserO'HaraBoyd-MunceMcMenaminMandronKiltieStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hibernian

Marshall and Obita: 5 passesFish and Newell: 5 passesYouan and Campbell: 5 passesNewell and Tavares: 5 passesWhittaker and Newell: 6 passesBushiri and Newell: 6 passesBushiri and Tavares: 6 passesYouan and Newell: 6 passesBushiri and Fish: 7 passesMarshall and Levitt: 8 passesNewell and Levitt: 8 passesWhittaker and Fish: 9 passesBushiri and Levitt: 9 passesWhittaker and Levitt: 11 passesObita and Levitt: 11 passesObita and Tavares: 11 passesWhittaker and Youan: 12 passesYouan and Levitt: 12 passesObita and Newell: 13 passesMarshall and Bushiri: 16 passesBushiri and Obita: 18 passesFish and Levitt: 19 passesMarshall and Fish: 36 passesMarshall: 41 completed passesWhittaker: 28 completed passesBushiri: 34 completed passesFish: 44 completed passesObita: 35 completed passesYouan: 18 completed passesNewell: 26 completed passesLevitt: 40 completed passesTavares: 15 completed passesCampbell: 11 completed passesVente: 9 completed passes14933521711629329MarshallWhittakerBushiriFishObitaYouanNewellLevittTavaresCampbellVenteStarters until 67' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
StrainFraser18
FraserGogic14
GogicTaylor13
TaylorTanser13
GogicFraser11

Hibernian

FromToPasses
MarshallFish21
FishMarshall19
FishLevitt13
BushiriObita11
BushiriMarshall10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

5−0.812−4.73−5.07+1.88−1.35−0.85−4.35−3.04−2.13−3.10−3.19+1.47+0.34+0.43+0.26+3.92−1.23−0.54+2.23+1.52+1.41−0.45+2.72+1.21+0.82+1.31+0.82+0.81−8.00−9.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Hibernian

12+6.64−2.322+6.712+4.55−0.37−0.77+0.45−0.85−3.05−2.69+1.50−5.10−3.25−1.73−2.53−4.24+0.73+1.23−0.72−1.00−1.80−1.40−0.61−0.83+0.80−0.50−0.40−0.30−0.50−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.050.010.040.040.050.030.060.02−0.010.030.010.05−0.020.05−0.070.040.030.10LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.010.030.020.010.020.020.020.070.010.030.010.060.02−0.010.010.060.040.010.05−0.050.030.11LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackSt. Mirren1.08 → 1.10Hibernian1.25 → 1.24Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.41 → 1.40Hibernian1.25 → 1.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six72%72%0
11th2%2%0
Bottom1%1%0
Hibernian
Top six56%54%−2
11th3%4%+1
Bottom2%2%0

From the forecast before the match (8 November 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenHibernian
Expected goals1.231.22
Win36%35%
Expected Points1.361.35
Clean sheet29%29%

St. Mirren 36%Draw 29%Hibernian 35%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 51%.

Hibernian goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+9%6%3%8%3%1%7%8%5%2%3%3%2%1%10%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 8 November 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawHibernian win
St. Mirren
Top six72%82%72%63%
11th2%1%2%3%
Bottom1%<1%1%1%
Hibernian
Top six56%44%54%69%
11th3%5%4%2%
Bottom2%3%2%1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L1–21 NovCeltic (A)xG 0.62–3.89
  2. W4–028 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.52–0.74
  3. L0–38 OctRangers (H)xG 0.03–2.05
  4. D1–130 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 0.79–0.73
  5. W1–023 SepHearts (H)xG 1.59–1.19
  6. W1–016 SepMotherwell (A)xG 0.55–1.18

Hibernian

  1. D2–231 OctRoss County (H)xG 0.50–0.52
  2. D0–028 OctCeltic (H)xG 0.57–1.49
  3. L0–421 OctRangers (A)xG 0.45–2.69
  4. D2–27 OctHearts (A)xG 1.32–1.25
  5. D0–030 SepDundee FC (H)xG 2.62–0.55
  6. W2–023 SepSt. Johnstone (H)xG 2.78–0.62

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenHibernian
Position3rd9th
Played1011
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠3–⁠22–⁠5–⁠4
Points18 (1.80 per game)11 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.111.38
Goals16–⁠1215–⁠18
xG per game1.06–⁠1.581.22–⁠1.16
Home: points, xG per game2.00, 1.28–⁠1.431.00, 1.45–⁠1.07
Away: points, xG per game1.60, 0.84–⁠1.731.00, 0.96–⁠1.27
ManagerStephen Robinson (5)Nick Montgomery (7)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackSt. Mirren1.08, 8thHibernian1.25, 4thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.41, 8thHibernian1.25, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovSt. Mirren attack: 1.08Hibernian attack: 1.251.251.08HibernianSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovSt. Mirren defence: 1.41Hibernian defence: 1.251.411.25

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−31%+1%−14%−11%
Counter-attacks+43%+7%−41%+7%
Set pieces−43%−2%+12%−28%
Penalties+28%+155%−42%−42%
Headers+5%−11%−3%−11%
Left side−33%−5%+5%+6%
Centre−37%+10%−23%−31%
Right side−7%−18%+7%+2%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHibernian concededLeft side−33%+2%Centre−37%−31%Right side−7%+6%Open play−31%−11%Counter-attacks+43%+7%Set pieces−43%−28%Headers+5%−11%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+5%−18%Centre−23%+10%Right side+7%−5%Open play−14%+1%Counter-attacks−41%+7%Set pieces+12%−2%Headers−3%−11%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenHibernian

1.06xG1.22
1.58xG against1.16
41%Possession52%
9.2Shots12.1
13.0Shots against13.5
3.4Shots on target4.0
2.4Big chances2.2
15.0Touches in the opposition box28.0
297Passes412
62%Pass accuracy76%
3.9Corners5.1
36%Field tilt50%
28.8Final-third entries37.8
9.1Box entries13.1
18.0Passes per defensive action14.5

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level460.961.38
Ahead351.081.79
Behind101.441.74

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level480.981.31
Ahead161.800.72
Behind261.301.16

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.054–0
16–300.120.321–3
31–450.130.223–1
46–600.200.163–0
61–750.130.311–3
76–900.190.524–5

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.171–2
16–300.210.140–3
31–450.120.132–1
46–600.240.172–1
61–750.160.296–6
76–900.390.264–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWHemming 10Fraser 10Gogic 10Taylor 9Dunne 1Strain 9Flynn 1Baccus 8McMenamin 1O'Hara 6Boyd-Munce 5Tanser 9O'Hara 1McMenamin 9Tanser 1Olusanya 6Mandron 4Kiltie 103-4-3 in 6 of 10 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (6), 3-4-2-1 (3), 5-4-1 (1)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarshall 10Wollacott 1Miller 8Fish 1Delferriere 1Fish 10Bushiri 6Hanlon 5Stevenson 1Stevenson 5Obita 5Levitt 1Boyle 5Youan 3Tavares 2Jeggo 10Levitt 1Doyle-Hayes 1Newell 10Youan 6Boyle 3Tavares 1Doidge 5Le Fondre 4Boyle 1Vente 9Campbell 2Delferriere 14-4-2 in 7 of 11 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (7), 4-3-3 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
6 August 2023Hibernian2–3St. MirrenxG 1.41–1.55
6 May 2023Hibernian2–1St. MirrenxG 1.67–1.61
4 February 2023St. Mirren0–1HibernianxG 0.36–0.64
29 October 2022Hibernian3–0St. MirrenxG 1.87–0.82
27 August 2022St. Mirren1–0HibernianxG 1.37–0.80
23 April 2022St. Mirren0–1HibernianxG 0.69–0.72

12 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 3, Hibernian won 7, and 2 were drawn. Goals 10–18 and xG 0.91–1.25 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Olusanya6500110.290.08
Kiltie10807230.240.05
Strain9732110.150.13
Tanser10900110.030.23

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Le Fondre4506310.410.02
Youan9842220.250.15
Boyle9853100.150.19
Vente9653200.170.09

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.