Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Hibernian 2–3 St. Mirren

Sunday 6 August 2023, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 1 · Half-time 0–2 · Referee Euan Anderson · Attendance 17,586

Hibernian Le Fondre 72', Doidge 82'

St. Mirren O'Hara 15' (pen), Olusanya 17', Greive 89'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianSt. Mirren
Goals23
xG1.411.55
Non-penalty xG1.410.77
Expected Points1.201.49

Hibernian 30%Draw 31%St. Mirren 40%

Most likely score 1–1, 17%. Final score 2–3, 3%.

St. Mirren goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+2%8%7%2%3%4%2%11%10%3%1%5%4%1%1%1%17%13%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTObita on for Delferriere and Levitt on for Campbell, 29'Le Fondre on for Boyle, 63'Jeggo on for Doyle-Hayes, 81'Greive on for Olusanya, 68'Boyd-Munce on for McMenamin, 77'Bolton on for Strain, 90+1'Le Fondre 72'Doidge 82'O'Hara 15' (pen)Olusanya 17'Greive 89'St. Mirren 1.55Hibernian 1.4100.511.520153045607590HTObita on for Delferriere and Levitt on for Campbell, 29'Le Fondre on for Boyle, 63'Jeggo on for Doyle-Hayes, 81'Greive on for Olusanya, 68'Boyd-Munce on for McMenamin, 77'Bolton on for Strain, 90+1'Le Fondre 72'Doidge 82'O'Hara 15' (pen)Olusanya 17'Greive 89'1.551.41HibernianSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianSt. Mirren

1.41xG1.55
1.41Non-penalty xG0.77
1.88xG on target2.58
14Shots8
6Shots on target4
3Big chances3
59%Possession41%
424Passes288
73%Pass accuracy62%
57%Field tilt43%
42Final-third entries26
13Box entries9
10.8Passes per defensive action21.4
2Corners7
10Tackles15
9Interceptions4
12Clearances29
1Saves3
14Fouls7
0Offsides5

Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Le Fondre 90', 0.37 xGYouan 57', 0.17 xGLe Fondre 77', 0.12 xGFish 58', 0.10 xGLevitt 90', 0.07 xGDoyle-Hayes 19', 0.05 xGCampbell 1', 0.04 xGDoidge 86', 0.03 xGYouan 37', 0.02 xGBoyle 55', 0.02 xGLevitt 87', 0.02 xGDoidge 75', 0.01 xGLe Fondre 72', 0.22 xG, goalDoidge 82', 0.17 xG, goal12%0.17 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.17 xG, 0 goals73%1.02 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.02 xG, 2 goals3%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals11%0.15 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Greive 71', 0.08 xGStrain 44', 0.07 xGTaylor 6', 0.05 xGMcMenamin 22', 0.03 xGO'Hara 31', 0.03 xGOlusanya 17', 0.26 xG, goalGreive 89', 0.25 xG, goal10%0.08 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals66%0.51 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.51 xG, 2 goals14%0.11 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals9%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianSt. Mirren

1.04 9 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.28 2 shots, 1 goal
0.23 2 shots, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.34 2 shots, 1 goal
0.14 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.15 3 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
22 min (24%) · Hibernian 0.08, St. Mirren 1.08 xG
St. Mirren ahead
69 min (76%) · Hibernian 1.32, St. Mirren 0.47 xG

Line-ups

12854168111032723MarshallDelferriereFishHanlonStevensonDoyle-HayesNewellBoyleCampbellYouanDoidgeYellow cardGoalYellow card29'81'63'29'Hibernian 4-2-3-1Lee Johnson123221353106171120HemmingStrainFraserGogicTaylorTanserMcMenaminO'HaraBaccusKiltieOlusanyaYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoal90+1'77'68'St. Mirren 5-4-1Steve Robinson

Hibernian substitutes

  • 29' Levitt for Campbell
  • 29' Obita for Delferriere
  • 63' Le Fondre for Boyle · goal 72'
  • 81' Jeggo for Doyle-Hayes

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 68' Greive for Olusanya · goal 89'
  • 77' Boyd-Munce for McMenamin
  • 90+1' Bolton for Strain

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0000.0310
DelferriereRB290.000.0000.0210
FishCB900.100.0310.0455
HanlonCB900.000.0100.09911
StevensonLB900.000.0500.19144
Doyle-Hayes DM810.050.1710.0730
NewellDM900.000.1320.0231
BoyleRW630.020.000−0.0121
CampbellAM290.040.010−0.0412
YouanLW9010.190.4940.71110
Doidge ST90110.210.133−0.2511
LevittMF610.090.0310.0226
ObitaDF610.000.1610.2562
Le FondreFW2710.710.0300.0430
JeggoMF90.000.0000.0000

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0000.0211
StrainRWB900.070.1300.1047
FraserCB900.000.0000.0215
GogicCB900.000.0000.0219
TaylorCB900.050.0000.0127
TanserLWB900.000.6300.1226
McMenamin RM770.030.0420.0343
O'HaraCM90110.820.2410.0783
Baccus CM900.000.0200.0968
KiltieLM9010.000.1120.0861
OlusanyaST6810.260.0210.0421
GreiveFW2210.330.0000.0210
Boyd-MunceMF130.000.0000.0000
BoltonDF00.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Marshall and Fish: 3 passesDelferriere and Youan: 3 passesHanlon and Newell: 3 passesStevenson and Youan: 3 passesDoyle-Hayes and Boyle: 3 passesFish and Doyle-Hayes: 4 passesNewell and Youan: 4 passesCampbell and Youan: 4 passesFish and Newell: 5 passesDelferriere and Fish: 7 passesStevenson and Newell: 8 passesDelferriere and Newell: 9 passesHanlon and Stevenson: 9 passesMarshall: 6 completed passesDelferriere: 12 completed passesFish: 11 completed passesHanlon: 11 completed passesStevenson: 14 completed passesDoyle-Hayes: 8 completed passesNewell: 18 completed passesBoyle: 1 completed passesCampbell: 6 completed passesYouan: 7 completed passesDoidge: 4 completed passes12854168111032723MarshallDelferriereFishHanlonStevensonDoyle-HayesNewellBoyleCampbellYouanDoidgeStarters until 29' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

St. Mirren

Hemming and McMenamin: 3 passesGogic and O'Hara: 3 passesGogic and Kiltie: 3 passesTaylor and Olusanya: 3 passesTanser and Olusanya: 3 passesO'Hara and Olusanya: 3 passesGogic and Fraser: 4 passesFraser and Baccus: 4 passesMcMenamin and O'Hara: 4 passesBaccus and O'Hara: 4 passesStrain and Fraser: 5 passesTanser and Kiltie: 6 passesMcMenamin and Olusanya: 6 passesBaccus and Kiltie: 6 passesStrain and Kiltie: 7 passesGogic and Taylor: 7 passesTaylor and Tanser: 7 passesTaylor and O'Hara: 7 passesTanser and O'Hara: 7 passesMcMenamin and Baccus: 9 passesStrain and O'Hara: 10 passesStrain and Baccus: 13 passesStrain and McMenamin: 18 passesHemming: 7 completed passesStrain: 32 completed passesGogic: 11 completed passesTaylor: 17 completed passesFraser: 13 completed passesTanser: 15 completed passesMcMenamin: 19 completed passesBaccus: 22 completed passesO'Hara: 21 completed passesKiltie: 12 completed passesOlusanya: 7 completed passes123135223101761120HemmingStrainGogicTaylorFraserTanserMcMenaminBaccusO'HaraKiltieOlusanyaStarters until 68' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
StevensonHanlon13
HanlonStevenson11
HanlonFish10
StevensonObita10
ObitaStevenson10

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
McMenaminStrain10
StrainO'Hara8
StrainMcMenamin8
BaccusStrain7
BaccusMcMenamin7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

26734571656457111621081199LessMore

St. Mirren

11815114939931042122521211111518LessMore

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.040.030.040.040.020.010.080.040.060.040.030.030.020.170.01−0.040.050.110.15−0.15−0.040.110.30LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.060.010.010.030.070.020.03−0.03−0.020.06−0.020.110.070.020.010.16LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackHibernian1.30 → 1.29St. Mirren1.06 → 1.09Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.23 → 1.26St. Mirren1.43 → 1.42

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six75%65%−10
11th2%4%+2
Bottom1%2%+1
St. Mirren
Top six28%40%+12
11th12%9%−3
Bottom10%5%−5
Aberdeen
Top six46%43%−3
Bottom3%3%0
St. Johnstone
Top six21%20%−1
Bottom14%17%+3

From the forecast before the match (6 August 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.720.89
Win56%19%
Expected Points1.940.81
Clean sheet41%18%

Hibernian 56%Draw 25%St. Mirren 19%

Most likely score 1–0, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

St. Mirren goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+8%6%3%5%2%4%1%6%6%2%3%2%1%12%12%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 6 August 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawSt. Mirren win
Hibernian
Top six75%80%72%65%
11th2%1%2%4%
Bottom1%1%1%2%
St. Mirren
Top six28%23%29%40%
11th12%14%12%9%
Bottom10%12%9%5%
Aberdeen
Top six46%47%48%43%
Bottom3%3%3%3%
St. Johnstone
Top six21%21%21%20%
Bottom14%13%14%17%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. D1–127 MayHearts (A)xG 1.50–0.11
  2. W4–224 MayCeltic (H)xG 2.04–2.37
  3. L1–321 MayRangers (H)xG 1.19–1.91
  4. D0–013 MayAberdeen (A)xG 1.95–0.30
  5. W2–16 MaySt. Mirren (H)xG 1.67–1.61
  6. D1–122 AprSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.45–0.84

St. Mirren

  1. L0–327 MayRangers (H)xG 0.55–1.81
  2. L0–324 MayAberdeen (A)xG 0.70–1.53
  3. D2–220 MayCeltic (A)xG 1.24–1.73
  4. D2–213 MayHearts (H)xG 1.06–2.13
  5. L1–26 MayHibernian (A)xG 1.61–1.67
  6. L0–222 AprKilmarnock (H)xG 0.51–2.32

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.30AttackHibernian1.30, 4thSt. Mirren1.06, 8thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.23, 3rdSt. Mirren1.43, 9th

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−5%−13%−26%+4%
Counter-attacks+41%+2%−36%+10%
Set pieces+5%−10%+4%−12%
Penalties−22%+57%+4%+57%
Headersaverage−26%+10%+7%
Left side+2%−22%−18%+4%
Centre−19%−12%−19%+5%
Right side+26%−1%−19%−11%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+2%−11%Centre−19%+5%Right side+26%+4%Open play−5%+4%Counter-attacks+41%+10%Set pieces+5%−12%Headersaverage+7%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHibernian concededLeft side−18%−1%Centre−19%−12%Right side−19%−22%Open play−26%−13%Counter-attacks−36%+2%Set pieces+4%−10%Headers+10%−26%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
6 May 2023Hibernian2–1St. MirrenxG 1.67–1.61
4 February 2023St. Mirren0–1HibernianxG 0.36–0.64
29 October 2022Hibernian3–0St. MirrenxG 1.87–0.82
27 August 2022St. Mirren1–0HibernianxG 1.37–0.80
23 April 2022St. Mirren0–1HibernianxG 0.69–0.72
5 February 2022Hibernian0–1St. MirrenxG 1.22–0.38

11 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 7, St. Mirren won 2, and 2 were drawn. Goals 16–7 and xG 1.24–0.85 per game.