Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

St. Mirren 0–1 Hibernian

Saturday 4 February 2023, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 25 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Matthew McDermid · Attendance 7,253

Hibernian Youan 77'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenHibernian
Goals01
xG0.360.64
Expected Points0.971.54

St. Mirren 16%Draw 48%Hibernian 35%

Most likely score 0–0, 38%. Final score 0–1, 24%.

Hibernian goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+24%7%1%13%10%3%2%1%38%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.750153045607590HTWatt on for Greive, 67'Small on for Kiltie, 80'Offord on for Tanser, 81'Hoppe on for McKirdy, 18'Cadden on for McGeady, 57'Henderson on for Newell, 69'Youan 77'Hibernian 0.64St. Mirren 0.3600.250.50.750153045607590HTWatt on for Greive, 67'Small on for Kiltie, 80'Offord on for Tanser, 81'Hoppe on for McKirdy, 18'Cadden on for McGeady, 57'Henderson on for Newell, 69'Youan 77'0.640.36St. MirrenHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenHibernian

0.36 −0.74xG0.64 −0.65
0.63 −0.35xG on target0.58 −0.58
8 −4Shots9 −7
3 −0.1Shots on target3 −2.0
0 −1.7Big chances0 −1.4
18 −1Touches in the opposition box11 −12
39% +2Possession61% +5
286 +15Passes467 +60
58% −4Pass accuracy71% −5
44% +5Field tilt56% −5
26 −6Final-third entries36 −10
7 −2.3Box entries6 −7.1
17.2 0Passes per defensive action13.9 +3
5 −0.8Corners4 −2.0
20 +5Tackles15 −1
9 −0.6Interceptions8 −0.3
20 −2Clearances28 +9
2 −0.3Saves3 +1.2
13 0Fouls6 −7
1 −0.2Offsides2 +0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Main 39', 0.07 xGMain 35', 0.06 xGBaccus 36', 0.06 xGTanser 60', 0.06 xGMain 60', 0.05 xGKiltie 52', 0.03 xGTanser 15', 0.02 xGO'Hara 14', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals31%0.11 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals25%0.09 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals42%0.15 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals3%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Campbell 5', 0.08 xGCampbell 12', 0.08 xGMcGeady 34', 0.07 xGYouan 68', 0.07 xGEgan-Riley 55', 0.06 xGYouan 8', 0.03 xGHoppe 75', 0.03 xGCampbell 10', 0.02 xGYouan 77', 0.20 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals77%0.49 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.49 xG, 1 goal9%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals11%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 0 goals3%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenHibernian

0.25 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.41 5 shots, 1 goal
0.11 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.23 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
77 min (86%) · St. Mirren 0.36, Hibernian 0.64 xG
Hibernian ahead
13 min (14%) · St. Mirren 0.00, Hibernian 0.00 xG

Line-ups

1232213183111761021CarsonStrainFraserGogicDunneTanserKiltieBaccusO'HaraMainGreiveYellow card81'80'67'St. Mirren 5-3-2Stephen Robinson12625416111422324623MarshallEgan-RileyFishHanlonStevensonNewellJeggoMcKirdyCampbellMcGeadyYouanYellow cardYellow cardGoal69'18'57'Hibernian 4-2-3-1Lee Johnson

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 67' Watt for Greive
  • 80' Small for Kiltie
  • 81' Offord for Tanser

Hibernian substitutes

  • 18' Hoppe for McKirdy
  • 57' Cadden for McGeady
  • 69' Henderson for Newell · 1 assist

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0000.0240
StrainRWB900.000.0510.0226
Fraser CB900.000.0100.0526
GogicCB900.000.0000.0226
DunneCB900.000.0100.0746
TanserLWB810.080.0100.0332
KiltieCM800.030.0100.0425
BaccusCM900.060.0910.0955
O'HaraCM900.010.0930.0227
MainST900.180.000−0.0114
GreiveST670.000.011−0.0602
WattFW230.000.000−0.0100
SmallFW100.000.0200.0112
OffordFW90.000.0000.0000

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0000.0320
Egan-RileyRB900.060.0100.0466
FishCB900.000.0100.05815
Hanlon CB900.000.0410.0968
StevensonLB900.000.0100.0964
NewellDM690.000.030−0.0136
JeggoDM900.000.0100.0444
McKirdyRW180.000.0210.0121
Campbell AM900.180.0200.0463
McGeadyLW570.070.0620.0931
YouanST9010.300.0310.1450
HoppeFW720.030.000−0.0213
CaddenDF330.000.0710.1031
HendersonMF2110.000.0210.0631

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Carson and Greive: 3 passesDunne and Greive: 3 passesBaccus and Greive: 3 passesKiltie and Main: 3 passesO'Hara and Main: 3 passesStrain and Baccus: 4 passesDunne and O'Hara: 4 passesFraser and Main: 4 passesBaccus and Kiltie: 4 passesBaccus and Main: 4 passesGogic and Fraser: 5 passesDunne and Tanser: 5 passesKiltie and Greive: 5 passesStrain and Fraser: 6 passesStrain and Main: 6 passesFraser and Baccus: 6 passesTanser and Baccus: 6 passesTanser and O'Hara: 7 passesBaccus and O'Hara: 7 passesStrain and Kiltie: 10 passesCarson: 9 completed passesStrain: 13 completed passesGogic: 10 completed passesDunne: 13 completed passesFraser: 17 completed passesTanser: 8 completed passesBaccus: 21 completed passesKiltie: 15 completed passesO'Hara: 13 completed passesGreive: 6 completed passesMain: 5 completed passes1231318223171162110CarsonStrainGogicDunneFraserTanserBaccusKiltieO'HaraGreiveMainStarters until 67' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
KiltieStrain7
O'HaraTanser7
StrainMain6
O'HaraBaccus5
DunneTanser5

Hibernian

FromToPasses
Egan-RileyFish13
FishMarshall12
FishEgan-Riley12
HanlonStevenson11
Egan-RileyMcGeady11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

3−1.88+0.34−4.48+4.215+5.85−1.75+0.17+0.310+3.47+0.74−0.95+2.09+4.79+5.26+2.14+1.63−0.52−1.43+0.20−1.810.03+1.02−0.34+2.81+0.20−0.81+0.51+0.27−6.41−5.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 23 matches

Hibernian

3−1.67+1.023+12.02−5.75−1.88+2.49+3.13−1.59+2.613+5.59+3.51−4.16+3.06+0.56−1.65+1.43−1.22−0.62−2.87+2.61−1.30−2.00−0.820.04+1.50−1.00−0.80−0.91+0.30−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 24 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.020.020.020.010.010.030.020.020.040.01−0.010.010.01−0.01−0.120.060.10LessMore

Hibernian

0.020.040.030.020.030.030.010.030.040.080.060.02−0.010.070.02−0.010.020.080.050.14LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackSt. Mirren1.00 → 0.99Hibernian1.20 → 1.20Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.30 → 1.31Hibernian1.16 → 1.15

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six82%70%−12
Hibernian
Top six74%88%+14

From the forecast before the match (4 February 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenHibernian
Expected goals1.151.14
Win35%35%
Expected Points1.361.34
Clean sheet32%32%

St. Mirren 35%Draw 30%Hibernian 35%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 47%.

Hibernian goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+7%2%8%3%7%8%4%2%3%3%2%11%11%11%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 4 February 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawHibernian win
St. Mirren
Top six82%93%80%70%
Hibernian
Top six74%61%74%88%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. W3–11 FebAberdeen (A)xG 2.21–0.94
  2. W1–028 JanMotherwell (H)xG 0.60–0.40
  3. L0–418 JanCeltic (A)xG 0.53–2.25
  4. L0–113 JanHearts (A)xG 1.41–1.68
  5. D1–17 JanHearts (H)xG 0.66–0.99
  6. D0–02 JanKilmarnock (A)xG 0.35–0.70

Hibernian

  1. D1–131 JanRoss County (A)xG 1.03–0.69
  2. W6–028 JanAberdeen (H)xG 2.60–0.52
  3. D2–214 JanDundee United (H)xG 0.80–0.87
  4. W3–28 JanMotherwell (A)xG 1.73–1.64
  5. L0–32 JanHearts (A)xG 1.19–1.76
  6. L0–428 DecCeltic (H)xG 0.55–2.61

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenHibernian
Position4th6th
Played2324
Won, drawn, lost9–⁠6–⁠89–⁠4–⁠11
Points33 (1.43 per game)31 (1.29 per game)
Expected Points per game1.141.45
Goals26–⁠3236–⁠38
xG per game1.10–⁠1.391.29–⁠1.18
Home: points, xG per game2.08, 1.17–⁠1.011.75, 1.42–⁠1.03
Away: points, xG per game0.73, 1.02–⁠1.800.83, 1.15–⁠1.33
ManagerStephen Robinson (16)Lee Johnson (24)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackSt. Mirren1.00, 8thHibernian1.20, 4thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.30, 5thHibernian1.16, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebSt. Mirren attack: 1.00Hibernian attack: 1.201.201.00HibernianSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebSt. Mirren defence: 1.30Hibernian defence: 1.161.301.16

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−25%−7%−8%−24%
Counter-attacks−3%−5%+63%+26%
Set pieces+8%−4%+24%−8%
Penalties−13%+95%−38%+45%
Headers+21%+3%+11%−17%
Left side−14%+6%+12%−32%
Centre−21%−9%−18%−9%
Right side−11%−15%+29%−17%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHibernian concededLeft side−14%−17%Centre−21%−9%Right side−11%−32%Open play−25%−24%Counter-attacks−3%+26%Set pieces+8%−8%Headers+21%−17%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+12%−15%Centre−18%−9%Right side+29%+6%Open play−8%−7%Counter-attacks+63%−5%Set pieces+24%−4%Headers+11%+3%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenHibernian

1.10xG1.29
1.39xG against1.18
37%Possession56%
11.8Shots15.9
12.0Shots against10.5
3.1Shots on target5.0
1.7Big chances1.4
18.9Touches in the opposition box23.5
271Passes407
62%Pass accuracy76%
5.8Corners6.0
38%Field tilt61%
32.1Final-third entries46.1
9.3Box entries13.1
17.1Passes per defensive action11.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.071.26
Ahead221.241.32
Behind231.031.72

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level321.131.18
Ahead231.491.21
Behind341.301.16

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.183–4
16–300.130.191–4
31–450.220.286–6
46–600.210.227–6
61–750.190.212–5
76–900.250.317–7

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.114–8
16–300.100.173–5
31–450.250.218–5
46–600.270.246–7
61–750.230.168–6
76–900.260.297–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTCarson 23Strain 20Fraser 2Flynn 1Fraser 16Gallagher 17Gogic 7Shaughne… 6ShaughnessyDunne 22R. Taylor 1Tanser 13Tait 7O'Hara 2Baccus 20Tanser 2Erhahon 20O'Hara 17Kiltie 7Gogic 3Ayunga 16Greive 7Kiltie 1Main 21Brophy 15-3-2 in 21 of 23 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (21), 3-5-2 (2)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMarshall 24Cadden 18Porteous 4Fish 1Bushiri 13Porteous 12Fish 3Hanlon 20Cabraja 11Stevenson 8Kukharevych 3Kenneh 13Campbell 8Porteous 4Newell 14Boyle 6Cadden 5Magennis 3Campbell 7Newell 6Cabraja 3Youan 12Newell 3McGeady 2Kukharevych 6Youan 5Nisbet 54-2-3-1 in 9 of 24 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (9), 4-1-4-1 (6), 3-5-2 (4), 4-4-2 (3), 4-3-3 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
29 October 2022Hibernian3–0St. MirrenxG 1.87–0.82
27 August 2022St. Mirren1–0HibernianxG 1.37–0.80
23 April 2022St. Mirren0–1HibernianxG 0.69–0.72
5 February 2022Hibernian0–1St. MirrenxG 1.22–0.38
11 December 2021St. Mirren1–1HibernianxG 0.60–1.06
18 September 2021Hibernian2–2St. MirrenxG 2.10–0.82

9 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 2, Hibernian won 5, and 2 were drawn. Goals 6–13 and xG 0.82–1.26 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Ayunga161,288320.420.04
Greive7671300.440.03
Main211,758600.240.08
O'Hara191,595400.180.09

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet7528810.630.02
Kukharevych10744310.390.13
Boyle10936510.330.13
Youan181,575360.210.16

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.