Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Hearts 3–2 St. Johnstone

Sunday 28 August 2022, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 5 · Half-time 2–1 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 18,353

Hearts Rowles 25', Boyce 31', Shankland 81' (pen)

St. Johnstone Carey 6', Considine 54'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsSt. Johnstone
Goals32
xG2.740.77
Non-penalty xG1.950.77
Expected Points2.630.25

Hearts 83%Draw 13%St. Johnstone 4%

Most likely score 2–1, 13%. Final score 3–2, 4%.

St. Johnstone goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+1%6%7%2%4%4%7%7%2%3%3%1%1%12%13%11%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTMcKay on for Rowles, 35'Shankland on for Boyce, 45+4'Forrest on for Mackay-Steven, 59'C. Smith on for Atkinson, 62'Crawford on for Hallberg, 20'Montgomery on for Brown and Gordon on for Phillips, 46'Bair on for May, 76'Rowles 25'Boyce 31'Shankland 81' (pen)Carey 6'Considine 54'Hearts 2.74St. Johnstone 0.7701230153045607590HTMcKay on for Rowles, 35'Shankland on for Boyce, 45+4'Forrest on for Mackay-Steven, 59'C. Smith on for Atkinson, 62'Crawford on for Hallberg, 20'Montgomery on for Brown and Gordon on for Phillips, 46'Bair on for May, 76'Rowles 25'Boyce 31'Shankland 81' (pen)Carey 6'Considine 54'2.740.77HeartsSt. Johnstone

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsSt. Johnstone

2.74 +1.53xG0.77 +0.35
1.95Non-penalty xG0.77
1.97 +0.72xG on target1.19 +0.88
27 +16.0Shots9 +2.8
6 +0.5Shots on target5 +3.5
4 +2.2Big chances1 +0.5
40 +24Touches in the opposition box16
60% +14Possession40% +2
463 +79Passes307 +16
74% +4Pass accuracy60% −6
74% +32Field tilt26% −2
40 +5Final-third entries24 +3
18 +7.0Box entries8 +1.5
15.7 −1Passes per defensive action13.3 −3
3 −2.5Corners4 +0.2
13 −4Tackles16 −3
4 −4.0Interceptions10 −3.0
13 −3Clearances21 −4
3 +0.2Saves3 +0.8
9 −0.8Fouls13 +0.8
1 −0.2Offsides4 +3.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Shankland 53', 0.14 xGBoyce 25', 0.09 xGForrest 64', 0.09 xGShankland 90+3', 0.08 xGHaring 16', 0.06 xGDevlin 75', 0.06 xGMcKay 87', 0.06 xGGinnelly 10', 0.05 xGMcKay 43', 0.05 xGShankland 45+6', 0.05 xGNeilson 71', 0.05 xGForrest 90', 0.05 xGGinnelly 45+5', 0.04 xGMcKay 45+6', 0.04 xGShankland 45+6', 0.04 xGHaring 46', 0.04 xGHaring 5', 0.03 xGHalliday 16', 0.03 xGGinnelly 36', 0.03 xGC. Smith 78', 0.03 xGMcKay 90', 0.03 xGHalliday 33', 0.02 xGMcKay 36', 0.02 xGHalliday 75', 0.01 xGBoyce 31', 0.56 xG, goalRowles 25', 0.18 xG, goal29%0.56 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.56 xG, 1 goal42%0.81 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 0.81 xG, 1 goal10%0.19 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals19%0.37 xGEdge of the box: 10 shots, 0.37 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

St. Johnstone

Carey 53', 0.17 xGMay 29', 0.04 xGCarey 41', 0.04 xGMay 54', 0.04 xGCrawford 69', 0.03 xGWright 89', 0.03 xGPhillips 8', 0.02 xGConsidine 54', 0.41 xG, goalCarey 6', 0.00 xG, goal53%0.41 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.41 xG, 1 goal10%0.08 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals26%0.20 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals6%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.05 xG, 1 goal5%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsSt. Johnstone

1.56 20 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.25 5 shots, 1 goal
0.39 6 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.53 4 shots, 1 goal
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
39 min (39%) · Hearts 1.62, St. Johnstone 0.07 xG
Hearts ahead
41 min (41%) · Hearts 0.69, St. Johnstone 0.69 xG
St. Johnstone ahead
19 min (19%) · Hearts 0.42, St. Johnstone 0.02 xG

Line-ups

1220151251416301011GordonM. SmithNeilsonRowlesAtkinsonHaringDevlinHallidayGinnellyBoyceMackay-StevenGoalGoal35'62'45+4'59'Hearts 3-4-3Robbie Neilson11354142234223729MatthewsMcGowanMitchellConsidineWrightHallbergPhillipsBrownCareyMayMurphyGoalYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card20'46'46'76'St. Johnstone 3-4-1-2Callum Davidson

Hearts substitutes

  • 35' McKay for Rowles
  • 45+4' Shankland for Boyce · goal 81' (pen)
  • 59' Forrest for Mackay-Steven
  • 62' C. Smith for Atkinson

St. Johnstone substitutes

  • 20' Crawford for Hallberg · yellow card 66'
  • 46' Montgomery for Brown
  • 46' Gordon for Phillips
  • 76' Bair for May

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0461
M. SmithCB900.000.1320.2895
NeilsonCB900.050.0100.0875
RowlesCB3510.180.0100.0203
AtkinsonRWB620.000.0310.0013
HaringCM900.140.1420.1032
DevlinCM900.060.0220.1240
HallidayLWB900.070.0910.0864
GinnellyRW9010.120.7740.4761
BoyceST4510.650.0010.0112
Mackay-StevenLW5910.000.2720.2360
McKayFW550.200.4430.34120
ShanklandFW4511.110.0410.0411
ForrestMF310.140.0200.0020
C. SmithMF280.030.0000.0124

St. Johnstone

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MatthewsGK900.000.0400.1131
McGowanCB900.000.0000.07211
MitchellCB900.000.0000.0238
Considine CB9010.410.0100.06414
WrightRWB900.030.1000.2364
HallbergCM200.000.011−0.0102
Phillips CM460.020.000−0.0113
BrownLWB460.000.0100.0121
CareyAM9010.210.0710.0952
MayST7610.080.001−0.0201
Murphy ST900.000.0110.0120
Crawford FW700.030.0520.0421
MontgomeryDF440.000.0100.0213
GordonDF440.000.0000.0214
BairFW140.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Neilson and Halliday: 3 passesNeilson and Devlin: 3 passesNeilson and Haring: 3 passesM. Smith and Haring: 3 passesGinnelly and Boyce: 3 passesGinnelly and Mackay-Steven: 3 passesGordon and M. Smith: 4 passesGordon and Boyce: 4 passesRowles and Devlin: 4 passesRowles and Haring: 4 passesRowles and Mackay-Steven: 4 passesM. Smith and Devlin: 4 passesAtkinson and Haring: 4 passesGordon and Neilson: 5 passesNeilson and M. Smith: 5 passesNeilson and Atkinson: 5 passesDevlin and Haring: 5 passesGordon and Rowles: 6 passesM. Smith and Atkinson: 6 passesHalliday and Mackay-Steven: 7 passesRowles and Halliday: 10 passesRowles and Neilson: 17 passesGordon: 11 completed passesRowles: 24 completed passesNeilson: 23 completed passesM. Smith: 16 completed passesAtkinson: 12 completed passesHalliday: 12 completed passesDevlin: 13 completed passesHaring: 13 completed passesGinnelly: 2 completed passesBoyce: 4 completed passesMackay-Steven: 11 completed passes1152021216145301011GordonRowlesNeilsonM. SmithAtkinsonHallidayDevlinHaringGinnellyBoyceMackay-StevenStarters until 35' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
M. SmithNeilson11
NeilsonHalliday10
NeilsonRowles10
RowlesNeilson7
M. SmithGinnelly7

St. Johnstone

FromToPasses
CrawfordCarey6
WrightCarey5
CareyConsidine5
McGowanCrawford5
ConsidineCarey5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

9+3.86−1.26−0.52−1.25−2.03−2.512+7.56−1.86+0.21−4.06−0.53+0.27−0.85+0.54+0.25+1.86+3.22−0.53−0.530.02+1.21+0.55+4.21−0.80−0.80−0.51+0.20−0.200.05−6.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 4 matches

St. Johnstone

3−2.815+8.512−5.211+3.85−2.85−2.212+4.88−0.87−3.22−5.27−0.510+6.58+5.55−0.811+2.23−2.210+4.85+3.82−0.56+4.23+1.01+0.50−0.52+1.510.00−1.500.000.00−0.22+1.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 4 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.020.010.010.020.020.020.030.040.020.040.020.040.010.080.090.040.030.200.150.020.240.060.12−0.150.130.180.36LessMore

St. Johnstone

0.020.090.010.010.010.020.010.010.040.020.030.010.020.060.010.080.010.01−0.010.010.19LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.18AttackHearts1.20 → 1.25St. Johnstone0.82 → 0.82Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.20 → 1.18St. Johnstone1.35 → 1.39

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six79%83%+4
11th1%1%0
Bottom1%<1%−1
St. Johnstone
Top six9%6%−3
11th21%22%+1
Bottom26%30%+4
Dundee United
Top six11%11%0
11th19%20%+1
Bottom21%21%0

From the forecast before the match (28 August 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsSt. Johnstone
Expected goals1.650.74
Win58%16%
Expected Points2.010.74
Clean sheet48%19%

Hearts 58%Draw 25%St. Johnstone 16%

Most likely score 1–0, 15%. Both sides score 43%.

St. Johnstone goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+10%6%3%4%1%9%3%7%5%2%3%2%15%12%12%

From the forecast as it stood on 28 August 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawSt. Johnstone win
Hearts
Top six79%83%72%71%
11th1%1%2%2%
Bottom1%<1%1%1%
St. Johnstone
Top six9%6%9%18%
11th21%22%21%16%
Bottom26%30%24%17%
Dundee United
Top six11%11%11%11%
11th19%20%18%20%
Bottom21%21%22%24%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. L0–221 AugCeltic (A)xG 0.29–2.55
  2. W4–114 AugDundee United (H)xG 1.80–1.21
  3. D1–17 AugHibernian (A)xG 0.96–1.50
  4. W2–130 JulRoss County (H)xG 1.78–1.54
  5. L1–314 MayRangers (H)xG 0.62–1.22
  6. L1–211 MayMotherwell (A)xG 1.31–1.42

St. Johnstone

  1. L0–120 AugAberdeen (H)xG 0.34–1.05
  2. L0–413 AugRangers (A)xG 0.33–2.32
  3. W2–16 AugMotherwell (A)xG 0.87–0.67
  4. L0–130 JulHibernian (H)xG 0.15–0.78
  5. L0–415 MayHibernian (A)xG 0.51–1.99
  6. W1–011 MayAberdeen (H)xG 0.68–0.28

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsSt. Johnstone
Position6th10th
Played44
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠1–⁠11–⁠0–⁠3
Points7 (1.75 per game)3 (0.75 per game)
Expected Points per game1.110.76
Goals7–⁠52–⁠7
xG per game1.21–⁠1.700.42–⁠1.21
Home: points, xG per game3.00, 1.79–⁠1.380.00, 0.24–⁠0.92
Away: points, xG per game0.50, 0.62–⁠2.021.50, 0.60–⁠1.49
ManagerRobbie Neilson (42)Callum Davidson (80)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.18AttackHearts1.20, 3rdSt. Johnstone0.82, 12thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.20, 5thSt. Johnstone1.35, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugHearts attack: 1.20St. Johnstone attack: 0.821.200.82St. JohnstoneHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugHearts defence: 1.20St. Johnstone defence: 1.351.351.20

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsSt. Johnstone
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+15%+38%−67%+7%
Counter-attacks−13%+29%−93%−9%
Set pieces−30%−33%−25%−13%
Penalties−50%+33%−81%−56%
Headers−41%+5%−58%−8%
Left side−10%+18%−57%average
Centre+7%+21%−63%−13%
Right side+16%+29%−53%+32%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side−10%+32%Centre+7%−13%Right side+16%averageOpen play+15%+7%Counter-attacks−13%−9%Set pieces−30%−13%Headers−41%−8%

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdHearts concededLeft side−57%+29%Centre−63%+21%Right side−53%+18%Open play−67%+38%Counter-attacks−93%+29%Set pieces−25%−33%Headers−58%+5%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsSt. Johnstone

1.21xG0.42
1.70xG against1.21
46%Possession38%
11.0Shots6.2
12.2Shots against16.2
5.5Shots on target1.5
1.8Big chances0.5
384Passes291
71%Pass accuracy65%
5.5Corners3.8
42%Field tilt28%
35.4Final-third entries20.7
11.0Box entries6.5
17.0Passes per defensive action16.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level242.281.98
Ahead471.071.35
Behind190.232.20

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level520.490.84
Ahead160.220.84
Behind230.392.27

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.260.271–1
16–300.100.301–0
31–450.250.210–0
46–600.320.122–0
61–750.150.241–1
76–900.120.562–3

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.050.170–0
16–300.120.091–0
31–450.000.180–1
46–600.070.160–1
61–750.040.230–1
76–900.150.371–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 3Stewart 1M. Smith 2Sibbick 1Atkinson 1Halkett 3Sibbick 1Rowles 4Cochrane 4Haring 3Halliday 1Devlin 1Grant 2M. Smith 1Forrest 3McKay 1Boyce 3Atkinson 1McKay 2Forrest 1Mackay-Steven 1Shankland 3Ginnelly 14-2-3-1 in 3 of 4 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-4-3 (1)

St. Johnstone

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTMatthews 4McGowan 4Mitchell 4Considine 4Wright 4Hallberg 4MacPherson 2Phillips 1Davidson 1Montgomery 3Brown 1Carey 4Murphy 4Bair 43-4-2-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
19 February 2022St. Johnstone2–1HeartsxG 0.69–1.56
18 January 2022Hearts2–0St. JohnstonexG 1.71–1.14
27 October 2021St. Johnstone1–1HeartsxG 1.22–0.94

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 1, St. Johnstone won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 4–3 and xG 1.40–1.02 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Boyce322,6971030.480.10
McKay332,9144110.150.28
Ginnelly171,706620.260.07
Mackay-Steven201,610240.190.11

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
May131,390310.190.08
Hallberg181,500040.020.14
Crawford242,048300.070.09
MacPherson131,315010.030.09

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.