Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

St. Johnstone 2–3 Hearts

Wednesday 28 December 2022, 19:45 · McDiarmid Park · Round 19 · Half-time 0–2 · Referee William Collum · Attendance 7,058

St. Johnstone May 55' (pen), Murphy 79'

Hearts Shankland 14' (pen), Forrest 33', McKay 64'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. JohnstoneHearts
Goals23
xG2.502.33
Non-penalty xG0.921.55
Expected Points1.491.23

St. Johnstone 40%Draw 28%Hearts 32%

Most likely score 2–2, 14%. Final score 2–3, 10%.

Hearts goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+3%5%4%2%1%7%10%4%1%1%6%9%3%2%4%3%2%1%14%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTMitchell on for Hallberg, 26'Murphy on for Clark and McLennan on for Crawford, 65'Wotherspoon on for McGowan and MacPherson on for Carey, 70'Smith on for Forrest and McKay on for Grant, 63'Kiomourtzoglou on for Ginnelly, 77'May 55' (pen)Murphy 79'Shankland 14' (pen)Forrest 33'McKay 64'St. Johnstone 2.50Hearts 2.3301230153045607590HTMitchell on for Hallberg, 26'Murphy on for Clark and McLennan on for Crawford, 65'Wotherspoon on for McGowan and MacPherson on for Carey, 70'Smith on for Forrest and McKay on for Grant, 63'Kiomourtzoglou on for Ginnelly, 77'May 55' (pen)Murphy 79'Shankland 14' (pen)Forrest 33'McKay 64'2.502.33St. JohnstoneHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. JohnstoneHearts

2.50 +1.61xG2.33 +0.75
0.92Non-penalty xG1.55
1.40 +0.49xG on target1.93 +0.52
15 +5.3Shots16 +3.7
3 −0.1Shots on target3 −1.3
4 +2.7Big chances2 −0.3
27 +12Touches in the opposition box29 +7
37% −5Possession63% +10
269 −58Passes469 +46
71% +5Pass accuracy79% +4
55% +22Field tilt45% −4
39 +13Final-third entries28 −5
14 +6.6Box entries11 −0.2
14.2 −3Passes per defensive action15.1 0
4 +0.9Corners11 +6.2
17 0Tackles12 −5
18 +6.9Interceptions9 +0.2
27 +1Clearances22 +5
0 −2.6Saves1 −2.8
14 +3Fouls7 −3
2 +0.7Offsides1 −0.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Johnstone

May 35', 0.22 xGMitchell 90+2', 0.19 xGClark 60', 0.08 xGMay 44', 0.07 xGMay 66', 0.06 xGGordon 68', 0.05 xGWright 73', 0.05 xGMay 42', 0.04 xGMurphy 81', 0.03 xGCrawford 6', 0.02 xGCrawford 42', 0.02 xGWotherspoon 83', 0.02 xGMurphy 79', 0.08 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals41%0.38 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.38 xG, 0 goals49%0.46 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.46 xG, 1 goal10%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Grant 5', 0.56 xGGrant 11', 0.17 xGShankland 73', 0.17 xGShankland 86', 0.11 xGShankland 5', 0.07 xGHalliday 20', 0.06 xGForrest 45+4', 0.06 xGSnodgrass 9', 0.05 xGGinnelly 30', 0.05 xGForrest 45+3', 0.04 xGForrest 59', 0.04 xGGrant 49', 0.03 xGSibbick 62', 0.03 xGForrest 33', 0.07 xG, goalMcKay 64', 0.04 xG, goal22%0.34 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.34 xG, 0 goals52%0.80 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.80 xG, 1 goal13%0.20 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals14%0.21 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.21 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. JohnstoneHearts

0.77 9 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.27 9 shots, 2 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.05 1 shot, 0 goals
0.15 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.22 5 shots, 0 goals
1.58 2 shots, 1 goalPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
14 min (15%) · St. Johnstone 0.02, Hearts 1.63 xG
Hearts ahead
82 min (85%) · St. Johnstone 2.48, Hearts 0.70 xG

Line-ups

113641422211923377MatthewsMcGowanGordonConsidineWrightHallbergCrawfordMontgomeryCareyClarkMayYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal70'26'65'70'65'St. Johnstone 3-4-1-2Callum Davidson28211519171477163097ClarkSibbickRowlesCochraneForrestDevlinSnodgrassHallidayGinnellyShanklandGrantGoalYellow cardGoal63'77'63'Hearts 3-4-3Robbie Neilson

St. Johnstone substitutes

  • 26' Mitchell for Hallberg · yellow card 84'
  • 65' McLennan for Crawford
  • 65' Murphy for Clark · goal 79'
  • 70' MacPherson for Carey
  • 70' Wotherspoon for McGowan

Hearts substitutes

  • 63' Smith for Forrest
  • 63' McKay for Grant · goal 64'
  • 77' Kiomourtzoglou for Ginnelly

Players

St. Johnstone

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MatthewsGK900.000.0000.0121
McGowan CB700.000.2810.1934
Gordon CB9010.050.001−0.08312
ConsidineCB900.000.0010.02211
WrightRWB900.050.0620.16124
HallbergCM260.000.0000.0111
CrawfordCM650.040.0100.0025
MontgomeryLWB900.000.0200.0437
Carey AM700.790.0220.05210
ClarkST650.080.0110.0511
MayST9011.180.0920.0440
Mitchell DF640.190.0100.0967
McLennanFW250.000.0100.0010
MurphyFW2510.100.2510.0621
MacPhersonMF200.000.0710.1451
WotherspoonMF200.020.0100.0113

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0002
SibbickCB900.030.0100.0347
RowlesCB900.000.0000.03010
CochraneCB900.000.0200.0536
ForrestRWB6310.210.0200.0232
DevlinCM9010.000.1210.1213
Snodgrass CM900.050.0300.0672
HallidayLWB9010.060.0710.0566
GinnellyRW770.050.3320.3931
ShanklandST9011.130.0120.0142
GrantLW630.760.0100.0011
SmithDF270.000.0000.0113
McKayFW2710.040.1810.1721
KiomourtzoglouMF130.000.0000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Johnstone

Crawford and Clark: 3 passesConsidine and Carey: 4 passesMatthews: 4 completed passesMcGowan: 1 completed passesGordon: 4 completed passesConsidine: 4 completed passesWright: 3 completed passesHallberg: 4 completed passesCrawford: 6 completed passesMontgomery: 2 completed passesCarey: 4 completed passesMay: 3 completed passesClark: 2 completed passes113641422211923737MatthewsMcGowanGordonConsidineWrightHallbergCrawfordMontgomeryCareyMayClarkStarters until 26' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Clark and Sibbick: 5 passesRowles and Devlin: 5 passesSibbick and Grant: 5 passesForrest and Snodgrass: 5 passesHalliday and Grant: 5 passesDevlin and Grant: 5 passesShankland and Grant: 5 passesRowles and Grant: 6 passesDevlin and Snodgrass: 6 passesForrest and Devlin: 7 passesHalliday and Snodgrass: 7 passesSnodgrass and Shankland: 7 passesSibbick and Snodgrass: 10 passesCochrane and Grant: 10 passesSnodgrass and Grant: 10 passesForrest and Grant: 11 passesClark and Rowles: 13 passesRowles and Snodgrass: 13 passesCochrane and Halliday: 15 passesCochrane and Snodgrass: 18 passesSibbick and Forrest: 20 passesRowles and Sibbick: 22 passesRowles and Cochrane: 24 passesClark: 15 completed passesRowles: 46 completed passesSibbick: 36 completed passesCochrane: 43 completed passesForrest: 28 completed passesHalliday: 19 completed passesDevlin: 19 completed passesSnodgrass: 42 completed passesGinnelly: 5 completed passesShankland: 15 completed passesGrant: 27 completed passes28152119171614773097ClarkRowlesSibbickCochraneForrestHallidayDevlinSnodgrassGinnellyShanklandGrantStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Johnstone

FromToPasses
ConsidineCarey6
WrightCrawford6
GordonCarey5
MitchellWright5
WrightMay5

Hearts

FromToPasses
RowlesCochrane16
RowlesSibbick15
CochraneSnodgrass13
ForrestSibbick12
CochraneRowles12

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Johnstone

5−1.610+1.118+2.416+8.48+2.68−0.29+1.05−1.47−2.57−1.62−4.77+2.54+1.15−0.11−5.33−0.96+2.37+4.812+9.74+0.23+0.73+1.60−0.31+0.25+2.82+1.20−0.30−0.41+0.71+0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Hearts

8+3.49+3.219+6.711+4.36+1.83−4.37+0.83−3.17−1.49+2.14−1.94−0.54+0.43−2.05+0.10−3.92−1.33+0.42−0.92−2.34+0.43+1.10−0.71−0.12−0.23+2.60−0.30−0.60−0.20−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Johnstone

0.010.030.010.010.040.04−0.010.030.060.050.020.030.050.130.030.080.10−0.07−0.100.010.23LessMore

Hearts

0.020.010.020.020.020.010.020.03−0.010.040.030.050.020.02−0.010.060.010.020.180.180.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackSt. Johnstone0.96 → 0.98Hearts1.31 → 1.33Defence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.28 → 1.30Hearts1.26 → 1.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Johnstone
Top six47%37%−10
11th3%4%+1
Bottom1%1%0
Hearts
Top six88%95%+7

From the forecast before the match (28 December 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. JohnstoneHearts
Expected goals1.191.22
Win35%36%
Expected Points1.331.38
Clean sheet29%30%

St. Johnstone 35%Draw 29%Hearts 36%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 50%.

Hearts goalsSt. Johnstone goals0123456+0123456+10%7%3%8%3%1%6%8%5%2%3%3%2%10%10%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 28 December 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Johnstone winDrawHearts win
St. Johnstone
Top six47%60%42%37%
11th3%1%2%4%
Bottom1%<1%1%1%
Hearts
Top six88%81%89%95%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Johnstone

  1. L1–424 DecCeltic (A)xG 1.03–2.89
  2. W2–117 DecRoss County (A)xG 2.31–0.42
  3. D1–112 NovMotherwell (H)xG 1.38–0.93
  4. D2–29 NovSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.19–0.87
  5. W2–16 NovRangers (H)xG 0.81–1.37
  6. W1–029 OctKilmarnock (H)xG 0.39–0.38

Hearts

  1. D2–224 DecDundee United (A)xG 1.72–0.79
  2. W3–117 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 2.40–1.09
  3. D1–112 NovLivingston (H)xG 2.95–1.84
  4. L0–19 NovRangers (A)xG 0.50–1.82
  5. W3–26 NovMotherwell (H)xG 2.61–2.25
  6. W2–130 OctRoss County (A)xG 0.65–1.44

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. JohnstoneHearts
Position5th4th
Played1817
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠3–⁠87–⁠4–⁠6
Points24 (1.33 per game)25 (1.47 per game)
Expected Points per game1.131.30
Goals22–⁠2629–⁠28
xG per game0.89–⁠1.211.58–⁠1.70
Home: points, xG per game1.38, 0.82–⁠0.922.00, 2.20–⁠1.67
Away: points, xG per game1.30, 0.94–⁠1.451.00, 1.03–⁠1.73
ManagerCallum Davidson (94)Robbie Neilson (55)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackSt. Johnstone0.96, 10thHearts1.31, 3rdDefence (lower is better)St. Johnstone1.28, 5thHearts1.26, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecSt. Johnstone attack: 0.96Hearts attack: 1.311.310.96HeartsSt. JohnstoneDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecSt. Johnstone defence: 1.28Hearts defence: 1.261.281.26

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. JohnstoneHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−25%+12%+22%+47%
Counter-attacks−58%−88%−66%−57%
Set pieces−40%−15%average+21%
Penalties−46%−73%+72%−14%
Headers−50%+14%−14%+43%
Left side−37%+1%+4%+19%
Centre−19%−9%+14%+51%
Right side−39%+21%+24%+34%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Johnstone attacking

St. Johnstone createdHearts concededLeft side−37%+34%Centre−19%+51%Right side−39%+19%Open play−25%+47%Counter-attacks−58%−57%Set pieces−40%+21%Headers−50%+43%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdSt. Johnstone concededLeft side+4%+21%Centre+14%−9%Right side+24%+1%Open play+22%+12%Counter-attacks−66%−88%Set piecesaverage−15%Headers−14%+14%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. JohnstoneHearts

0.89xG1.58
1.21xG against1.70
42%Possession53%
9.7Shots12.3
14.6Shots against14.6
3.1Shots on target4.3
1.3Big chances2.3
15.3Touches in the opposition box21.9
327Passes423
66%Pass accuracy75%
3.1Corners4.8
34%Field tilt48%
26.4Final-third entries33.4
7.4Box entries11.2
17.1Passes per defensive action14.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Johnstone

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level410.921.11
Ahead220.710.88
Behind270.971.63

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level341.931.58
Ahead281.292.06
Behind281.441.49

xG by period

St. Johnstone

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.193–2
16–300.180.143–3
31–450.130.213–8
46–600.130.161–3
61–750.140.204–2
76–900.240.318–8

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.220.182–5
16–300.240.176–3
31–450.310.264–0
46–600.210.345–7
61–750.170.333–5
76–900.430.429–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Johnstone

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTMatthews 16Parish 2Wright 14Brown 2Carey 2McGowan 10Brown 1Mitchell 15Gordon 10Considine 18Montgom… 9MontgomeryBrown 5Carey 2Carey 8Brown 3Wright 3Hallberg 17Phillips 4McGowan 7Murphy 3Wotherspoon 2May 11Bair 5Clark 11Murphy 7McLennan 25-3-2 in 6 of 18 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (6), 3-4-2-1 (6), 3-4-1-2 (4), 3-1-4-2 (2)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 16Stewart 1M. Smith 10Halkett 2Sibbick 2Sibbick 7Neilson 4Halkett 3Kingsley 8Rowles 7Cochrane 5Cochrane 10Halliday 6Kiomourtzoglou 1Devlin 10Halliday 4Kiomourtzoglou 4Snodgrass 9Grant 2M. Smith 1Ginnelly 7Forrest 4McKay 2Boyce 3McKay 2M. Smith 2McKay 10Mackay-Steven 3Forrest 2Shankland 11Humphrys 3Ginnelly 24-2-3-1 in 7 of 17 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-4-3 (4), 4-1-4-1 (4), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
28 August 2022Hearts3–2St. JohnstonexG 2.74–0.77
19 February 2022St. Johnstone2–1HeartsxG 0.69–1.56
18 January 2022Hearts2–0St. JohnstonexG 1.71–1.14
27 October 2021St. Johnstone1–1HeartsxG 1.22–0.94

4 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Johnstone won 1, Hearts won 2, and 1 was a draw. Goals 5–7 and xG 0.95–1.74 per game.

Key players

St. Johnstone

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Clark12993400.300.03
May111,028340.190.12
Carey121,019300.230.06
Wright171,469300.150.05

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland131,2521220.880.06
Ginnelly9791320.170.19
Forrest8748300.260.07
Snodgrass9872040.040.24

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.