Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Kilmarnock 2–1 Hearts

Saturday 1 April 2023, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 30 · Half-time 2–1 · Referee Euan Anderson · Attendance 7,237

Kilmarnock Armstrong 22' (pen), Doidge 45' · McKenzie sent off 60'

Hearts Shankland 7'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockHearts
Goals21
xG2.720.68
Non-penalty xG1.930.68
Expected Points2.700.20

Kilmarnock 87%Draw 10%Hearts 3%

Most likely score 3–0, 16%. Final score 2–1, 11%.

Hearts goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+6%5%1%4%4%8%6%2%3%2%15%11%16%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTMcKenzie (Kilmarnock), red card 60'Chambers on for Jones, 63'Lyons on for Doidge, 80'Taylor on for Armstrong and Power on for Watson, 88'McKay on for Kiomourtzoglou and Stewart on for Clark, 46'Cochrane on for Kingsley, 66'Humphrys on for Forrest, 67'Oda on for Ginnelly, 80'Armstrong 22' (pen)Doidge 45'Shankland 7'Kilmarnock 2.72Hearts 0.6801230153045607590HTMcKenzie (Kilmarnock), red card 60'Chambers on for Jones, 63'Lyons on for Doidge, 80'Taylor on for Armstrong and Power on for Watson, 88'McKay on for Kiomourtzoglou and Stewart on for Clark, 46'Cochrane on for Kingsley, 66'Humphrys on for Forrest, 67'Oda on for Ginnelly, 80'Armstrong 22' (pen)Doidge 45'Shankland 7'2.720.68KilmarnockHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockHearts

2.72 +1.76xG0.68 −0.85
1.93Non-penalty xG0.68
1.94 +1.25xG on target0.69 −0.62
17 +6Shots10 −2
4 +1.0Shots on target3 −1.2
3 +1.6Big chances0 −2.1
19 0Touches in the opposition box28 +7
36% −9Possession64% +9
255 −73Passes464 +22
62% −4Pass accuracy75% −1
44% 0Field tilt56% +8
26 −8Final-third entries38 +4
12 +2.8Box entries14 +2.8
15.1 0Passes per defensive action8.7 −6
2 −2.5Corners5 −0.2
21 +5Tackles19 +3
17 +5.8Interceptions2 −6.3
22 +3Clearances15 −3
2 −1.4Saves2 −1.4
12 0Fouls15 +5
2 +0.1Offsides0 −1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Wright 68', 0.35 xGWright 6', 0.19 xGJones 10', 0.13 xGVassell 2', 0.06 xGVassell 29', 0.06 xGMcKenzie 57', 0.06 xGArmstrong 35', 0.05 xGLyons 86', 0.05 xGMayo 1', 0.04 xGWatson 82', 0.04 xGVassell 31', 0.03 xGArmstrong 47', 0.03 xGArmstrong 57', 0.03 xGArmstrong 75', 0.03 xGDonnelly 21', 0.02 xGDoidge 45', 0.75 xG, goal67%1.29 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.29 xG, 1 goal7%0.13 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.13 xG, 0 goals6%0.11 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals15%0.29 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.29 xG, 0 goals5%0.10 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Shankland 52', 0.13 xGShankland 67', 0.13 xGForrest 43', 0.09 xGShankland 64', 0.09 xGHumphrys 90+3', 0.09 xGShankland 70', 0.05 xGKingsley 43', 0.03 xGGinnelly 33', 0.02 xGHumphrys 69', 0.02 xGShankland 7', 0.03 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals53%0.36 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.36 xG, 0 goals25%0.17 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.17 xG, 1 goal22%0.15 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockHearts

1.20 10 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.68 10 shots, 1 goal
0.72 6 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
30 min (32%) · Kilmarnock 1.18, Hearts 0.17 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
48 min (52%) · Kilmarnock 0.60, Hearts 0.52 xG
Hearts ahead
15 min (16%) · Kilmarnock 0.94, Hearts 0.00 xG

Line-ups

2021931134227102623WalkerMayoWrightDorsettArmstrongWatsonDonnellyMcKenzieJonesDoidgeVassellGoalYellow cardYellow cardSent offGoal88'88'63'80'Kilmarnock 3-5-2Derek McInnes28221153777830917ClarkSmithSibbickRowlesKingsleyGrantSnodgrassKiomourtzoglouGinnellyShanklandForrestYellow cardYellow cardGoal46'66'46'80'67'Hearts 4-3-3Robbie Neilson

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 63' Chambers for Jones · yellow card 81'
  • 80' Lyons for Doidge
  • 88' Taylor for Armstrong
  • 88' Power for Watson

Hearts substitutes

  • 46' Stewart for Clark
  • 46' McKay for Kiomourtzoglou
  • 66' Cochrane for Kingsley
  • 67' Humphrys for Forrest
  • 80' Oda for Ginnelly

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WalkerGK900.000.0100.0551
MayoCB900.040.0310.1487
WrightCB900.540.0000.14412
DorsettCB900.000.0100.01211
ArmstrongRWB88110.940.5230.2563
WatsonCM880.040.0100.0128
Donnelly CM900.020.010−0.01011
McKenzie CM600.060.032−0.0321
JonesLWB630.130.041−0.0240
DoidgeST8010.750.0510.0732
VassellST900.150.0210.0402
Chambers MF270.000.0000.0005
LyonsMF100.050.0000.0001
TaylorDF20.000.0000.0121
PowerMF20.000.0000.0000

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK460.000.0000.0110
Smith RB900.000.2430.2973
SibbickCB900.000.0110.1058
RowlesCB900.000.0000.06510
Kingsley LB660.030.0000.0013
GrantCM900.000.020−0.0227
SnodgrassCM900.000.0600.0952
KiomourtzoglouCM460.000.0000.0213
GinnellyRW800.020.0300.0432
ShanklandST9010.440.0300.0120
ForrestLW670.090.0600.0731
StewartGK440.000.0000.0320
McKayFW440.000.0800.1360
CochraneDF240.000.0800.0930
HumphrysFW230.110.0100.0242
OdaFW100.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Walker and Dorsett: 3 passesWright and McKenzie: 3 passesMayo and Doidge: 3 passesArmstrong and Vassell: 3 passesJones and McKenzie: 3 passesWright and Donnelly: 4 passesDorsett and Donnelly: 4 passesMayo and Donnelly: 4 passesArmstrong and Jones: 4 passesArmstrong and Watson: 4 passesMcKenzie and Donnelly: 4 passesMcKenzie and Doidge: 4 passesDoidge and Vassell: 4 passesMayo and Vassell: 5 passesWalker and Doidge: 6 passesMayo and Armstrong: 6 passesJones and Vassell: 6 passesWright and Dorsett: 9 passesDorsett and McKenzie: 9 passesDorsett and Jones: 10 passesWright and Mayo: 11 passesWalker: 7 completed passesWright: 18 completed passesDorsett: 19 completed passesMayo: 23 completed passesArmstrong: 11 completed passesJones: 14 completed passesMcKenzie: 17 completed passesWatson: 8 completed passesDonnelly: 13 completed passesDoidge: 9 completed passesVassell: 7 completed passes2019321110734222623WalkerWrightDorsettMayoArmstrongJonesMcKenzieWatsonDonnellyDoidgeVassellStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Smith and Forrest: 3 passesSibbick and Ginnelly: 3 passesKiomourtzoglou and Grant: 3 passesGrant and Snodgrass: 3 passesGinnelly and Forrest: 3 passesClark and Sibbick: 4 passesSmith and Shankland: 4 passesRowles and Grant: 4 passesSibbick and Kingsley: 4 passesKingsley and Kiomourtzoglou: 4 passesGrant and Ginnelly: 4 passesSnodgrass and Forrest: 4 passesSmith and Kiomourtzoglou: 7 passesSmith and Ginnelly: 7 passesRowles and Kiomourtzoglou: 7 passesSmith and Grant: 8 passesRowles and Kingsley: 11 passesKingsley and Forrest: 11 passesSmith and Sibbick: 15 passesRowles and Sibbick: 16 passesClark: 12 completed passesSmith: 29 completed passesRowles: 20 completed passesSibbick: 26 completed passesKingsley: 17 completed passesKiomourtzoglou: 15 completed passesGrant: 13 completed passesSnodgrass: 7 completed passesGinnelly: 7 completed passesShankland: 7 completed passesForrest: 12 completed passes28215213877730917ClarkSmithRowlesSibbickKingsleyKiomourtzoglouGrantSnodgrassGinnellyShanklandForrestStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
WalkerDoidge8
MayoDoidge7
WrightMayo6
MayoVassell5
MayoWright5

Hearts

FromToPasses
SibbickSmith28
SmithSibbick18
SibbickRowles15
RowlesSibbick15
RowlesKingsley8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

4−1.49+2.214+1.08+1.12−2.711+3.711+3.63−2.810+3.310+2.48+1.14−1.62−1.76+0.56+1.011+6.25+0.62−0.27+3.46+2.01−1.44+2.04+3.12+0.20−2.71−0.40−0.81+0.22+1.62+1.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

Hearts

12+7.49+2.48−4.815+8.26+1.88+0.55−1.83−3.011+2.26−1.56+0.44−0.92−1.41−3.89+3.22−1.92−1.23+0.51−1.93−0.730.02−0.11+0.31−0.20−1.90−0.60−0.31+0.52+1.71+0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 29 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.040.030.030.020.010.010.010.010.010.120.020.050.040.010.010.02−0.010.11−0.110.020.21LessMore

Hearts

0.020.010.010.010.020.010.030.030.010.030.050.040.050.030.070.010.020.06−0.010.070.040.05−0.030.040.070.21LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.26AttackKilmarnock0.97 → 1.02Hearts1.29 → 1.25Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.44 → 1.39Hearts1.28 → 1.33

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
11th32%28%−4
Bottom25%14%−11
Dundee United
11th30%28%−2
Bottom47%53%+6
Ross County
11th33%37%+4
Bottom27%31%+4

From the forecast before the match (1 April 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockHearts
Expected goals1.191.34
Win33%39%
Expected Points1.261.46
Clean sheet26%30%

Kilmarnock 33%Draw 28%Hearts 39%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Hearts goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+9%7%3%1%9%8%4%1%6%8%5%2%2%3%2%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 1 April 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawHearts win
Kilmarnock
11th32%28%35%34%
Bottom25%14%25%34%
Dundee United
11th30%28%28%32%
Bottom47%53%48%41%
Ross County
11th33%37%32%31%
Bottom27%31%27%25%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. D1–118 MarSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.31–0.57
  2. L1–34 MarRangers (A)xG 0.79–3.55
  3. D1–125 FebMotherwell (H)xG 0.75–1.24
  4. L0–218 FebHibernian (A)xG 0.82–2.94
  5. L1–34 FebLivingston (A)xG 1.12–1.45
  6. W1–01 FebDundee United (H)xG 2.71–1.37

Hearts

  1. L0–318 MarAberdeen (A)xG 0.52–2.03
  2. L1–38 MarCeltic (A)xG 0.62–2.08
  3. W3–04 MarSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.63–1.19
  4. L0–219 FebMotherwell (A)xG 0.94–1.33
  5. W3–14 FebDundee United (H)xG 1.01–1.22
  6. L0–31 FebRangers (H)xG 0.86–3.07

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockHearts
Position10th3rd
Played2929
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠7–⁠1613–⁠6–⁠10
Points25 (0.86 per game)45 (1.55 per game)
Expected Points per game1.111.33
Goals24–⁠5149–⁠43
xG per game0.96–⁠1.411.53–⁠1.62
Home: points, xG per game1.64, 1.26–⁠1.082.21, 2.00–⁠1.60
Away: points, xG per game0.13, 0.67–⁠1.720.93, 1.09–⁠1.63
ManagerDerek McInnes (29)Robbie Neilson (67)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.26AttackKilmarnock0.97, 9thHearts1.29, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.44, 11thHearts1.28, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarKilmarnock attack: 0.97Hearts attack: 1.291.290.97HeartsKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarKilmarnock defence: 1.44Hearts defence: 1.281.441.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−37%+6%+14%+33%
Counter-attacks−44%+10%+40%−58%
Set pieces+30%+20%−5%+25%
Penalties−82%−10%+61%−10%
Headers+10%−11%−15%+42%
Left side+1%−1%−12%+19%
Centre−37%+17%+15%+33%
Right side−15%+8%+23%+26%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHearts concededLeft side+1%+26%Centre−37%+33%Right side−15%+19%Open play−37%+33%Counter-attacks−44%−58%Set pieces+30%+25%Headers+10%+42%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−12%+8%Centre+15%+17%Right side+23%−1%Open play+14%+6%Counter-attacks+40%+10%Set pieces−5%+20%Headers−15%−11%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockHearts

0.96xG1.53
1.41xG against1.62
45%Possession55%
11.2Shots11.7
12.9Shots against14.3
3.0Shots on target4.2
1.4Big chances2.1
19.5Touches in the opposition box21.4
328Passes442
66%Pass accuracy76%
4.5Corners5.2
44%Field tilt48%
34.0Final-third entries33.9
9.2Box entries11.2
14.8Passes per defensive action14.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level321.111.13
Ahead180.991.22
Behind390.811.73

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level311.901.32
Ahead301.501.95
Behind291.161.59

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.213–9
16–300.150.263–12
31–450.190.245–7
46–600.280.186–6
61–750.110.194–8
76–900.110.333–9

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.250.176–9
16–300.190.189–6
31–450.310.308–2
46–600.200.306–10
61–750.200.288–6
76–900.370.3912–10

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTWalker 19Hemming 10Mayo 12Alebiosu 11Armstrong 3Taylor 19Wright 18Mayo 10Stokes 6Chrisene 7McInroy 6Chambers 4Armstrong 12McKenzie 5Jones 3Polworth 12Armstrong 4Alston 4Power 21Donnelly 8McKenzie 2McKenzie 12Jones 7Taylor 3Doidge 12Cameron 5Armstrong 3Lafferty 8Vassell 7Robinson 54-4-2 in 8 of 29 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (8), 3-4-2-1 (4), 3-5-2 (3), 5-3-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-4-1-2 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 4-5-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-3-3-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1)

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWGordon 16Clark 12Stewart 1Kingsley 11Smith 10Hill 7Sibbick 20Halkett 5Neilson 4Rowles 18Cochrane 10Smith 9Atkinson 4Forrest 4Devlin 15Kiomourtzoglou 6Shankland 4Snodgrass 14Halliday 6Grant 4Cochrane 12Halliday 8Snodgrass 5Ginnelly 9Forrest 5McKay 4Shankland 16Ginnelly 7Humphrys 3McKay 18Mackay-Steven 3Ginnelly 23-4-3 in 8 of 29 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (8), 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-4-2-1 (6), 4-1-4-1 (4), 3-5-2 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
17 December 2022Hearts3–1KilmarnockxG 2.40–1.09
9 October 2022Kilmarnock2–2HeartsxG 1.68–1.17

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 0, Hearts won 1, and 1 was a draw. Goals 3–5 and xG 1.39–1.78 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong221,977640.170.21
Vassell7572010.240.11
Robinson5507200.250.09
Shaw7628000.250.02

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland242,2421740.730.10
Humphrys7675300.430.05
Grant7846220.280.18
Ginnelly191,548820.250.18

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.