Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Hearts 3–1 Kilmarnock

Saturday 17 December 2022, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 17 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee William Collum · Attendance 18,645

Hearts Ginnelly 19', Shankland 29', 89' (pen)

Kilmarnock Taylor 73'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsKilmarnock
Goals31
xG2.401.09
Non-penalty xG1.611.09
Expected Points2.280.53

Hearts 70%Draw 19%Kilmarnock 11%

Most likely score 2–1, 13%. Final score 3–1, 10%.

Kilmarnock goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+1%1%6%8%4%1%8%2%8%6%2%4%5%3%1%1%10%13%10%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTKiomourtzoglou on for Devlin and Grant on for Ginnelly, 79'Forrest on for Halliday, C. Smith on for Snodgrass, and Sibbick on for McKay, 90+2'Chrisene on for McInroy and Doidge on for Polworth, 46'Murray on for McKenzie and Robinson on for Wales, 68'Alebiosu on for Mayo, 85'Ginnelly 19'Shankland 29'Shankland 89' (pen)Taylor 73'Hearts 2.40Kilmarnock 1.0901230153045607590HTKiomourtzoglou on for Devlin and Grant on for Ginnelly, 79'Forrest on for Halliday, C. Smith on for Snodgrass, and Sibbick on for McKay, 90+2'Chrisene on for McInroy and Doidge on for Polworth, 46'Murray on for McKenzie and Robinson on for Wales, 68'Alebiosu on for Mayo, 85'Ginnelly 19'Shankland 29'Shankland 89' (pen)Taylor 73'2.401.09HeartsKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsKilmarnock

2.40 +0.88xG1.09 +0.22
1.61Non-penalty xG1.09
2.55 +1.25xG on target1.28 +0.68
13 +1Shots14 +3
5 +0.7Shots on target5 +2.2
3 +0.8Big chances4 +3.0
30 +9Touches in the opposition box16 −1
63% +12Possession37% −10
539 +126Passes315 −31
78% +4Pass accuracy69% +1
67% +20Field tilt33% −14
40 +8Final-third entries29 −5
15 +4.3Box entries4 −4.9
11.6 −3Passes per defensive action15.9 +2
7 +2.7Corners2 −2.7
7 −11Tackles17 +1
4 −5.6Interceptions15 +4.4
11 −6Clearances15 −4
4 +0.3Saves2 −1.2
17 +7Fouls17 +4
2 +0.9Offsides2 +0.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

M. Smith 59', 0.26 xGGinnelly 23', 0.15 xGMcKay 81', 0.11 xGHalkett 22', 0.09 xGGinnelly 43', 0.09 xGHalliday 47', 0.09 xGHalliday 11', 0.08 xGShankland 78', 0.05 xGCochrane 67', 0.03 xGGrant 83', 0.02 xGShankland 29', 0.45 xG, goalGinnelly 19', 0.18 xG, goal28%0.45 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.45 xG, 1 goal50%0.81 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.81 xG, 1 goal19%0.30 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.30 xG, 0 goals3%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Wright 51', 0.21 xGTaylor 51', 0.11 xGMcKenzie 8', 0.09 xGDoidge 68', 0.07 xGDoidge 72', 0.07 xGDoidge 77', 0.07 xGPower 70', 0.05 xGDonnelly 45', 0.04 xGWales 26', 0.03 xGPolworth 44', 0.02 xGArmstrong 75', 0.02 xGDonnelly 26', 0.01 xGChrisene 70', 0.01 xGTaylor 73', 0.28 xG, goal36%0.39 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.39 xG, 1 goal44%0.48 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.48 xG, 0 goals6%0.07 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 0 goals9%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals5%0.05 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsKilmarnock

1.07 10 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.39 9 shots, 0 goals
0.54 2 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.70 5 shots, 1 goal
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
19 min (21%) · Hearts 0.26, Kilmarnock 0.09 xG
Hearts ahead
73 min (79%) · Hearts 2.14, Kilmarnock 1.00 xG

Line-ups

14319214771630918GordonHalkettKingsleyCochraneM. SmithDevlinSnodgrassHallidayGinnellyShanklandMcKayYellow cardGoalGoalGoal79'90+2'90+2'79'90+2'Hearts 3-4-3Robbie Neilson202519211142231729WalkerMayoTaylorWrightMcInroyArmstrongPowerDonnellyPolworthMcKenzieWalesGoalYellow card85'46'46'68'68'Kilmarnock 4-4-1-1Derek McInnes

Hearts substitutes

  • 79' Grant for Ginnelly
  • 79' Kiomourtzoglou for Devlin
  • 90+2' Sibbick for McKay
  • 90+2' Forrest for Halliday
  • 90+2' C. Smith for Snodgrass

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Chrisene for McInroy
  • 46' Doidge for Polworth
  • 68' Murray for McKenzie
  • 68' Robinson for Wales
  • 85' Alebiosu for Mayo

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0110
HalkettCB900.090.0200.12139
KingsleyCB900.000.0410.1465
CochraneCB900.030.0100.1173
M. SmithRWB900.260.1110.1523
DevlinCM790.000.1020.0251
Snodgrass CM9010.000.2620.0430
HallidayLWB900.170.0500.1451
GinnellyRW7910.420.081−0.0500
ShanklandST9021.290.1010.0832
McKayLW900.110.1120.25111
GrantMF110.020.0000.0100
KiomourtzoglouMF110.000.000−0.0100
SibbickDF00.000.0000.0001
ForrestMF00.000.0000.0000
C. SmithMF00.000.0000.0000

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WalkerGK900.000.0100.0001
MayoRB850.000.0300.0325
TaylorCB9010.390.0400.1077
WrightCB900.210.0000.0459
McInroyLB460.000.0410.0002
ArmstrongRM9010.020.2240.1261
PowerCM900.050.0220.0144
Donnelly CM900.060.0100.0236
PolworthLM460.020.0100.0111
McKenzieAM680.090.0000.0012
WalesST680.030.0100.0213
ChriseneDF440.010.0000.0114
DoidgeFW440.210.001−0.0102
MurrayMF220.000.112−0.0300
RobinsonMF220.000.091−0.0200
AlebiosuMF50.000.0000.0002

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Halliday and Snodgrass: 7 passesDevlin and Snodgrass: 7 passesGordon and Kingsley: 8 passesGordon and Cochrane: 8 passesGinnelly and Shankland: 8 passesGordon and Halkett: 9 passesHalliday and Devlin: 9 passesDevlin and McKay: 9 passesSnodgrass and McKay: 9 passesHalkett and Devlin: 10 passesHalkett and Snodgrass: 10 passesKingsley and Devlin: 12 passesCochrane and Devlin: 12 passesHalliday and McKay: 12 passesHalkett and Shankland: 13 passesCochrane and Snodgrass: 14 passesHalkett and M. Smith: 15 passesKingsley and Snodgrass: 16 passesCochrane and McKay: 17 passesCochrane and Halliday: 24 passesKingsley and Halkett: 35 passesKingsley and Cochrane: 35 passesGordon: 22 completed passesKingsley: 66 completed passesHalkett: 56 completed passesCochrane: 61 completed passesM. Smith: 20 completed passesHalliday: 32 completed passesDevlin: 36 completed passesSnodgrass: 36 completed passesGinnelly: 13 completed passesShankland: 16 completed passesMcKay: 26 completed passes13419216147730918GordonKingsleyHalkettCochraneM. SmithHallidayDevlinSnodgrassGinnellyShanklandMcKayStarters until 79' · lines join pairs with 7+ passes

Kilmarnock

Walker and Mayo: 3 passesMayo and Polworth: 3 passesTaylor and Power: 3 passesWright and Polworth: 3 passesMcInroy and Donnelly: 3 passesMcInroy and Polworth: 3 passesArmstrong and Donnelly: 3 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 3 passesMayo and Power: 4 passesWright and Donnelly: 4 passesMcInroy and Power: 4 passesMcInroy and McKenzie: 4 passesDonnelly and Polworth: 4 passesMayo and Donnelly: 5 passesWright and McInroy: 5 passesPower and McKenzie: 5 passesPower and Donnelly: 6 passesWright and Power: 8 passesPower and Polworth: 11 passesWalker: 4 completed passesMayo: 10 completed passesTaylor: 7 completed passesWright: 16 completed passesMcInroy: 12 completed passesArmstrong: 6 completed passesPower: 24 completed passesDonnelly: 13 completed passesPolworth: 15 completed passesMcKenzie: 6 completed passesWales: 1 completed passes202519211142231729WalkerMayoTaylorWrightMcInroyArmstrongPowerDonnellyPolworthMcKenzieWalesStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
KingsleyCochrane22
KingsleyHalkett21
HalkettKingsley16
CochraneKingsley15
CochraneHalliday14

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PowerWright9
PolworthPower7
PowerDonnelly7
PowerMayo6
PowerMcKenzie6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

1−3.93−3.211+4.41−3.48+0.54−2.53−3.55−3.79+1.87+1.14−0.63−0.53−2.37+2.02−2.25+1.75+2.58+5.42−2.74+0.45+3.31+0.31−0.21−1.20−0.40−0.31+0.40−0.11+0.55−8.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 15 matches

Kilmarnock

2−3.46−0.713+0.99+1.53−2.47+0.23−2.93−3.511+4.811+4.18+1.67+1.62−2.07+1.85−0.25+0.18+3.92−0.53−1.21−3.63+0.66+4.81+0.22−0.16+3.41−0.62+1.20−0.40−0.61+0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 16 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.020.010.040.010.040.040.070.070.040.040.060.060.020.010.070.060.020.07−0.050.070.020.110.12LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.010.030.010.020.010.020.010.030.04−0.02−0.01−0.020.02−0.02−0.050.060.050.060.05LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.22AttackHearts1.25 → 1.28Kilmarnock0.98 → 0.97Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.30 → 1.27Kilmarnock1.32 → 1.35

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six82%88%+6
11th1%<1%−1
Kilmarnock
Top six6%3%−3
11th22%23%+1
Bottom21%26%+5
Dundee United
11th24%24%0
Bottom34%32%−2
Ross County
Top six3%3%0
Bottom31%30%−1

From the forecast before the match (17 December 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsKilmarnock
Expected goals1.620.94
Win53%21%
Expected Points1.840.90
Clean sheet39%20%

Hearts 53%Draw 26%Kilmarnock 21%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

Kilmarnock goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%7%3%1%6%2%4%1%5%5%2%2%2%1%12%12%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 17 December 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawKilmarnock win
Hearts
Top six82%88%78%71%
11th1%<1%1%1%
Kilmarnock
Top six6%3%6%11%
11th22%23%22%18%
Bottom21%26%19%13%
Dundee United
11th24%24%23%23%
Bottom34%32%36%38%
Ross County
Top six3%3%4%4%
Bottom31%30%32%34%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. D1–112 NovLivingston (H)xG 2.95–1.84
  2. L0–19 NovRangers (A)xG 0.50–1.82
  3. W3–26 NovMotherwell (H)xG 2.61–2.25
  4. W2–130 OctRoss County (A)xG 0.65–1.44
  5. L3–422 OctCeltic (H)xG 2.90–2.82
  6. L0–216 OctAberdeen (A)xG 1.36–1.73

Kilmarnock

  1. W1–012 NovHibernian (H)xG 0.96–0.85
  2. L0–49 NovDundee United (A)xG 0.85–0.83
  3. L2–34 NovLivingston (H)xG 1.04–1.68
  4. L0–129 OctSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.38–0.39
  5. W1–022 OctRoss County (H)xG 1.10–0.70
  6. D0–015 OctSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.13–0.68

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsKilmarnock
Position5th11th
Played1516
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠3–⁠64–⁠3–⁠9
Points21 (1.40 per game)15 (0.94 per game)
Expected Points per game1.171.17
Goals24–⁠2512–⁠27
xG per game1.52–⁠1.800.87–⁠1.16
Home: points, xG per game1.86, 2.17–⁠1.751.75, 1.19–⁠1.21
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.94–⁠1.840.12, 0.55–⁠1.11
ManagerRobbie Neilson (53)Derek McInnes (16)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.22AttackHearts1.25, 3rdKilmarnock0.98, 8thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.30, 7thKilmarnock1.32, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecHearts attack: 1.25Kilmarnock attack: 0.981.250.98KilmarnockHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecHearts defence: 1.30Kilmarnock defence: 1.321.321.30

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+27%+60%−39%−14%
Counter-attacks−65%−56%−50%−49%
Set pieces−8%+16%+13%+27%
Penalties+41%+6%−67%−34%
Headers−24%+42%+3%−20%
Left side+9%+31%−18%−17%
Centre+18%+60%−36%−10%
Right side+17%+38%−26%+13%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+9%+13%Centre+18%−10%Right side+17%−17%Open play+27%−14%Counter-attacks−65%−49%Set pieces−8%+27%Headers−24%−20%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHearts concededLeft side−18%+38%Centre−36%+60%Right side−26%+31%Open play−39%+60%Counter-attacks−50%−56%Set pieces+13%+16%Headers+3%+42%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsKilmarnock

1.52xG0.87
1.80xG against1.16
51%Possession47%
12.1Shots11.1
14.9Shots against12.7
4.3Shots on target2.8
2.2Big chances1.0
20.9Touches in the opposition box16.8
413Passes346
74%Pass accuracy68%
4.3Corners4.7
46%Field tilt47%
32.4Final-third entries33.7
10.7Box entries8.9
14.9Passes per defensive action14.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level352.021.66
Ahead271.042.20
Behind281.331.60

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level331.111.02
Ahead180.811.24
Behind390.691.25

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.230.202–5
16–300.210.184–2
31–450.330.283–0
46–600.210.345–6
61–750.200.343–4
76–900.340.477–8

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.192–5
16–300.140.192–5
31–450.170.221–5
46–600.280.124–1
61–750.080.201–5
76–900.120.252–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 14Stewart 1M. Smith 10Sibbick 2Atkinson 2Sibbick 7Neilson 4Halkett 3Rowles 7Kingsley 6Cochrane 3Cochrane 10Halliday 4Kiomourtzoglou 1Devlin 8Kiomourtzoglou 4Halliday 4Snodgrass 7Grant 2M. Smith 1Ginnelly 5Forrest 4McKay 2Boyce 3Kiomourtzoglou 2McKay 2McKay 8Mackay-Steven 3Forrest 2Shankland 9Humphrys 3Ginnelly 24-2-3-1 in 7 of 15 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 4-1-4-1 (4), 3-4-3 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTHemming 9Walker 7Wright 12Shaw 2Armstrong 1Taylor 14Mayo 9Stokes 4Dorsett 3Alebiosu 10Mayo 4Armstrong 2Polworth 4Alston 4Armstrong 1Power 15Donnelly 4McInroy 1Chrisene 5McInroy 4Jones 2McKenzie 8Murray 2Polworth 2Armstrong 6Jones 5Shaw 3Lafferty 6Cameron 5Doidge 23-4-2-1 in 4 of 16 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (4), 4-4-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-4-3 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 3-3-3-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
9 October 2022Kilmarnock2–2HeartsxG 1.68–1.17

1 league meeting since 2020/21: Hearts won 0, Kilmarnock won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 2–2 and xG 1.17–1.68 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland111,072920.840.06
Ginnelly7622220.130.23
Forrest8735300.260.07
Snodgrass7692030.050.23

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong111,035520.240.17
Shaw7628000.250.02
McInroy6487000.100.14
Lafferty8576100.180.01

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.