Matches › 2022/23

Hearts 3–0 Hibernian

Monday 2 January 2023, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 20 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee Kevin Clancy · Attendance 18,980

Hearts Shankland 8', 38' (pen), Humphrys 90+4'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Measure	Hearts	Hibernian
Goals	3	0
xG	1.76	1.19
Non-penalty xG	0.97	1.19
Expected Points	1.84	0.88

Hearts 52%Draw 28%Hibernian 20%

Most likely score 2–1, 15%. Final score 3–0, 4%.

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsHibernian

1.76 +0.14xG1.19 −0.05

0.97Non-penalty xG1.19

2.62 +1.18xG on target1.15 +0.13

9 −4Shots14 −3

5 +0.8Shots on target4 −0.9

3 +0.7Big chances2 +0.6

15 −7Touches in the opposition box31 +7

50% −3Possession50% −7

381 −45Passes366 −47

73% −3Pass accuracy73% −4

35% −13Field tilt65% +2

22 −11Final-third entries41 −7

7 −4Box entries12 −2

16.1 +2Passes per defensive action11.2 0

3 −2.1Corners4 −2.6

18 +1Tackles24 +9

5 −3.8Interceptions9 +1.2

26 +9Clearances10 −8

4 +0.4Saves2 +0.1

10 0Fouls14 +1

1 −0.3Offsides3 +1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Zones Shots

Hearts

Hibernian

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsHibernian

0.85 5 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.66 8 shots, 0 goals

0.12 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.53 6 shots, 0 goals

0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

0–01–02–0

Level: 8 min (8%) · Hearts 0.34, Hibernian 0.00 xG
Hearts ahead: 97 min (92%) · Hearts 1.42, Hibernian 1.19 xG

Line-ups

Hearts substitutes

55' Atkinson for Smith · yellow card 79'
55' Forrest for Halliday
71' Grant for Ginnelly · 1 assist
76' Humphrys for McKay · goal 90+4'

Hibernian substitutes

46' McGeady for Fish
46' Magennis for McKirdy

Players

Hearts

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Clark	GK	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	2
Sibbick	CB	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.03	1	6
Rowles	CB	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.03	1	8
Cochrane	CB	90			0.00	0.01	0	0.09	5	7
Smith	RWB	55			0.00	0.00	1	0.02	3	3
Devlin	CM	90			0.05	0.03	1	0.04	2	6
Snodgrass	CM	90			0.00	0.02	0	0.01	1	10
Halliday	LWB	55			0.00	0.00	0	−0.01	1	0
Ginnelly	RW	71			0.08	0.00	0	0.01	1	0
Shankland	ST	90	2		1.16	0.01	0	0.01	2	1
McKay	LW	76			0.04	0.07	1	0.05	4	1
Atkinson	DF	35			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	2
Forrest	MF	35			0.00	0.00	0	0.07	4	6
Grant	MF	19		1	0.00	0.04	1	0.10	3	1
Humphrys	FW	14	1		0.44	0.00	0	0.01	1	1

Hibernian

Player	Pos	Min	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Marshall	GK	90	0.00	0.00	0	0.02	1	1
Fish	RB	46	0.08	0.00	0	0.00	1	2
Bushiri	CB	90	0.16	0.00	0	−0.11	0	5
Hanlon	CB	90	0.00	0.00	1	0.01	1	6
Stevenson	LB	90	0.00	0.03	0	0.10	6	4
Cadden	RM	90	0.11	0.08	1	0.20	9	2
Campbell	CM	90	0.03	0.03	1	−0.01	1	4
Newell	CM	90	0.00	0.32	4	0.19	12	9
Youan	LM	90	0.00	0.22	1	0.31	7	1
McKirdy	ST	46	0.03	0.00	0	0.00	0	0
Nisbet	ST	90	0.37	0.01	0	−0.04	0	1
McGeady	MF	44	0.00	0.03	0	0.03	2	5
Magennis	MF	44	0.43	0.01	0	−0.01	1	4

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Hibernian

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

From	To	Passes
Cochrane	Snodgrass	12
Rowles	Cochrane	12
Snodgrass	Cochrane	12
Snodgrass	Rowles	10
Sibbick	Snodgrass	9

Hibernian

From	To	Passes
Stevenson	Youan	21
Stevenson	Newell	11
Newell	Youan	10
Stevenson	Hanlon	10
Youan	Stevenson	10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

Against its average of 18 matches

Hibernian

Against its average of 19 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

Hibernian

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

Chance	Before	With this result	Change
Hearts
Top six	95%	98%	+3
Hibernian
Top six	53%	44%	−9
11th	2%	3%	+1
Bottom	1%	1%	0
St. Johnstone
Top six	42%	43%	+1
11th	5%	5%	0
Aberdeen
Top six	69%	70%	+1

From the forecast before the match (2 January 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Measure	Hearts	Hibernian
Expected goals	1.56	1.06
Win	48%	25%
Expected Points	1.72	1.02
Clean sheet	35%	21%

Hearts 48%Draw 27%Hibernian 25%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

From the forecast as it stood on 2 January 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

Chance	Now	Hearts win	Draw	Hibernian win
Hearts
Top six	95%	98%	95%	91%
Hibernian
Top six	53%	44%	53%	70%
11th	2%	3%	2%	1%
Bottom	1%	1%	<1%	<1%
St. Johnstone
Top six	42%	43%	43%	38%
11th	5%	5%	4%	5%
Aberdeen
Top six	69%	70%	70%	66%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

Hibernian

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Measure	Hearts	Hibernian
Position	3rd	8th
Played	18	19
Won, drawn, lost	8–⁠4–⁠6	7–⁠2–⁠10
Points	28 (1.56 per game)	23 (1.21 per game)
Expected Points per game	1.29	1.42
Goals	32–⁠30	24–⁠30
xG per game	1.62–⁠1.74	1.24–⁠1.20
Home: points, xG per game	2.00, 2.20–⁠1.67	1.70, 1.37–⁠1.10
Away: points, xG per game	1.20, 1.16–⁠1.80	0.67, 1.09–⁠1.32
Manager	Robbie Neilson (56)	Lee Johnson (19)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

This season

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Chances	Hearts		Hibernian
Chances	Created	Conceded	Created	Conceded
Open play	+24%	+43%	−5%	−25%
Counter-attacks	−60%	−59%	+9%	+95%
Set pieces	−2%	+16%	+18%	−8%
Penalties	+81%	+30%	−51%	+47%
Headers	−19%	+39%	+11%	−26%
Left side	+5%	+25%	+23%	−30%
Centre	+8%	+42%	−22%	−8%
Right side	+34%	+29%	+15%	−18%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdHibernian concededLeft side+5%−18%Centre+8%−8%Right side+34%−30%Open play+24%−25%Counter-attacks−60%+95%Set pieces−2%−8%Headers−19%−26%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdHearts concededLeft side+23%+29%Centre−22%+42%Right side+15%+25%Open play−5%+43%Counter-attacks+9%−59%Set pieces+18%+16%Headers+11%+39%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsHibernian

1.62xG1.24

1.74xG against1.20

53%Possession57%

12.5Shots16.7

14.7Shots against10.4

4.2Shots on target4.9

2.3Big chances1.4

22.3Touches in the opposition box24.2

426Passes413

75%Pass accuracy77%

5.1Corners6.6

48%Field tilt62%

33.0Final-third entries48.1

11.2Box entries14.0

14.6Passes per defensive action11.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	33	2.14	1.54
Ahead	31	1.23	2.18
Behind	27	1.44	1.49

Hibernian

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	36	1.07	1.22
Ahead	19	1.37	1.23
Behind	35	1.34	1.16

xG by period

Hearts

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.29	0.17	3–5
16–30	0.23	0.16	6–3
31–45	0.30	0.30	5–0
46–60	0.20	0.37	5–8
61–75	0.18	0.32	4–5
76–90	0.41	0.41	9–9

Hibernian

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.16	0.10	2–6
16–30	0.08	0.16	1–4
31–45	0.27	0.18	6–4
46–60	0.28	0.27	5–6
61–75	0.21	0.16	6–5
76–90	0.24	0.33	4–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-4-3 (5), 4-1-4-1 (4), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Hibernian

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (9), 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

Date	Home	Score	Away	xG
7 August 2022	Hibernian	1–1	Hearts	xG 1.50–0.96
9 April 2022	Hearts	3–1	Hibernian	xG 0.94–0.52
1 February 2022	Hibernian	0–0	Hearts	xG 1.02–1.37
12 September 2021	Hearts	0–0	Hibernian	xG 1.23–1.09

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 1, Hibernian won 0, and 3 were drawn. Goals 4–2 and xG 1.12–1.03 per game.

Key players

Hearts

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Shankland	14	1,342	13	2	0.89	0.06
Grant	5	475	1	0	0.36	0.13
Ginnelly	10	868	3	2	0.16	0.21
Forrest	9	811	4	0	0.27	0.06

Hibernian

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Kukharevych	10	744	3	1	0.39	0.13
Boyle	10	936	5	1	0.33	0.13
Youan	13	1,142	1	5	0.21	0.14
Henderson	8	674	1	2	0.19	0.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.