Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Kilmarnock 1–0 Ross County

Saturday 22 October 2022, 15:00 · Rugby Park · Round 12 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Colin Steven · Attendance 4,640

Kilmarnock Armstrong 20'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockRoss County
Goals10
xG1.100.70
Expected Points1.670.99

Kilmarnock 44%Draw 35%Ross County 21%

Most likely score 1–0, 18%. Final score 1–0, 18%.

Ross County goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+11%3%5%10%8%3%3%2%15%18%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTMcKenzie on for McInroy, 65'Polworth on for Alebiosu, 74'Stokes on for Chrisene, 88'Dhanda on for Callachan, 8'Olaigbe on for Hiwula-Mayifuila, 65'Akio on for Harmon, 77'Armstrong 20'Kilmarnock 1.10Ross County 0.7000.511.50153045607590HTMcKenzie on for McInroy, 65'Polworth on for Alebiosu, 74'Stokes on for Chrisene, 88'Dhanda on for Callachan, 8'Olaigbe on for Hiwula-Mayifuila, 65'Akio on for Harmon, 77'Armstrong 20'1.100.70KilmarnockRoss County

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockRoss County

1.10 +0.23xG0.70 +0.04
11 −0.4Shots10 +2.5
6 +3.2Shots on target4 +2.3
1 −0.2Big chances0 −0.7
17 0Touches in the opposition box16 +2
49% +5Possession51% +9
364 +44Passes373 +63
62% −5Pass accuracy63% 0
59% +17Field tilt41% +6
40 +9Final-third entries26 −3
13 +4.1Box entries15 +8.7
15.1 0Passes per defensive action14.8 0
5 0.0Corners7 +3.9
9 −7Tackles20 +4
10 −2Interceptions6 −4
17 −1Clearances8 −15
4 +0.3Saves4 +0.8
9 −5Fouls9 −4
0 −2.2Offsides3 +0.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

McInroy 36', 0.16 xGTaylor 6', 0.15 xGWright 25', 0.15 xGJones 81', 0.09 xGChrisene 6', 0.08 xGMcInroy 6', 0.06 xGArmstrong 83', 0.03 xGMcInroy 45+2', 0.02 xGCameron 32', 0.01 xGArmstrong 72', 0.01 xGArmstrong 20', 0.34 xG, goal14%0.15 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.15 xG, 0 goals70%0.76 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.76 xG, 1 goal8%0.09 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.09 xG, 0 goals7%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Ross County

White 38', 0.26 xGHiwula-Mayifuila 45+1', 0.08 xGEdwards 46', 0.08 xGJohnson 73', 0.08 xGWhite 49', 0.06 xGWhite 15', 0.03 xGDhanda 73', 0.03 xGWhite 80', 0.03 xGCancola 90+1', 0.03 xGBaldwin 90+1', 0.02 xG11%0.08 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.08 xG, 0 goals45%0.32 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.32 xG, 0 goals20%0.14 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals21%0.15 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals3%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockRoss County

0.66 7 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.51 5 shots, 0 goals
0.44 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.20 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
20 min (22%) · Kilmarnock 0.62, Ross County 0.03 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
73 min (78%) · Kilmarnock 0.47, Ross County 0.67 xG

Line-ups

125192542133111027HemmingMayoTaylorWrightAlebiosuPowerMcInroyChriseneArmstrongJonesCameronGoalYellow cardYellow card74'65'88'Kilmarnock 3-4-2-1Derek McInnes1125616224198726LaidlawJohnsonBaldwinIacovittiHarmonTillsonCancolaHiwula-MayifuilaCallachanEdwardsWhiteYellow card77'65'8'Ross County 4-2-3-1Malky Mackay

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 65' McKenzie for McInroy
  • 74' Polworth for Alebiosu
  • 88' Stokes for Chrisene

Ross County substitutes

  • 8' Dhanda for Callachan · yellow card 64'
  • 65' Olaigbe for Hiwula-Mayifuila
  • 77' Akio for Harmon

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0100.0551
MayoCB900.000.0220.1086
TaylorCB900.150.0100.04610
WrightCB900.150.0000.0476
AlebiosuRWB740.000.1210.2052
PowerCM900.000.0200.0362
McInroyCM650.240.000−0.0101
ChriseneLWB880.080.0620.1142
ArmstrongAM9010.370.2510.2783
Jones AM900.090.0310.0343
Cameron ST9010.010.0410.0831
McKenzieMF250.000.0000.0001
PolworthMF160.000.0210.0310
StokesDF20.000.0000.0000

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0000.0221
JohnsonRB900.080.1410.1643
BaldwinCB900.020.0310.1082
IacovittiCB900.000.0100.08610
HarmonLB770.000.3210.2042
TillsonDM900.000.0410.0848
CancolaDM900.030.021−0.0124
Hiwula-Mayifuila RW650.080.000−0.0400
CallachanAM80.000.0000.0000
EdwardsLW900.080.1420.3371
WhiteST900.380.000−0.0612
Dhanda FW820.030.040−0.0542
OlaigbeMF250.000.0400.0210
AkioFW130.000.0100.0611

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Taylor and Mayo: 4 passesWright and Chrisene: 4 passesWright and Cameron: 4 passesMayo and Cameron: 4 passesAlebiosu and Cameron: 4 passesChrisene and McInroy: 4 passesPower and McInroy: 4 passesMcInroy and Armstrong: 4 passesHemming and Wright: 5 passesWright and Power: 5 passesJones and Armstrong: 5 passesHemming and Taylor: 6 passesWright and Jones: 6 passesJones and Cameron: 6 passesArmstrong and Cameron: 6 passesMayo and Alebiosu: 8 passesChrisene and Power: 9 passesTaylor and Wright: 11 passesChrisene and Jones: 14 passesHemming: 13 completed passesTaylor: 18 completed passesWright: 25 completed passesMayo: 15 completed passesAlebiosu: 10 completed passesChrisene: 18 completed passesPower: 23 completed passesMcInroy: 9 completed passesJones: 23 completed passesArmstrong: 11 completed passesCameron: 9 completed passes151922533421101127HemmingTaylorWrightMayoAlebiosuChrisenePowerMcInroyJonesArmstrongCameronStarters until 65' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
JonesChrisene11
WrightTaylor9
MayoArmstrong8
MayoCameron7
MayoAlebiosu7

Ross County

FromToPasses
LaidlawBaldwin12
BaldwinJohnson10
BaldwinIacovitti9
BaldwinDhanda7
BaldwinCancola6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

2−2.95−1.810−3.17−0.54−1.76−0.610+3.99+1.47+0.45−0.24−0.38+3.44−1.54−0.86+2.62−0.86+2.06+1.73+0.52+1.03+2.52+0.23+0.33+1.60−0.81+0.60−0.60−0.63−3.44−3.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Ross County

3−3.54−4.99−7.46−2.28+2.57+1.16−1.36−0.34−4.216+10.610+4.25+1.32−1.64−0.76+1.62−2.61−2.62−1.41−2.29+5.33+0.82+0.42+1.24+2.30−1.60−0.81+0.62+1.32+1.80−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.030.020.040.010.010.020.010.060.030.020.010.040.030.050.010.010.010.16−0.020.090.030.05−0.02−0.020.27LessMore

Ross County

0.020.010.010.010.010.030.030.020.020.040.060.010.14−0.010.030.020.010.050.010.06−0.02−0.10−0.020.250.20LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.20AttackKilmarnock0.97 → 0.98Ross County0.85 → 0.85Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.32 → 1.29Ross County1.54 → 1.54

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six12%16%+4
11th19%17%−2
Bottom16%10%−6
Ross County
Top six2%1%−1
11th22%22%0
Bottom50%56%+6

From the forecast before the match (22 October 2022): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockRoss County
Expected goals1.500.84
Win52%21%
Expected Points1.840.89
Clean sheet43%22%

Kilmarnock 52%Draw 27%Ross County 21%

Most likely score 1–0, 14%. Both sides score 45%.

Ross County goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%3%1%5%1%9%4%1%5%5%2%2%2%10%14%13%11%

From the forecast as it stood on 22 October 2022: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawRoss County win
Kilmarnock
Top six12%16%8%6%
11th19%17%22%21%
Bottom16%10%18%28%
Ross County
Top six2%1%2%4%
11th22%22%22%24%
Bottom50%56%49%34%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. D0–015 OctSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.13–0.68
  2. D2–29 OctHearts (H)xG 1.68–1.17
  3. W2–15 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.28–0.87
  4. L1–41 OctAberdeen (A)xG 0.47–2.33
  5. L0–117 SepLivingston (A)xG 0.11–0.83
  6. L0–13 SepHibernian (A)xG 0.39–1.44

Ross County

  1. D1–115 OctDundee United (H)xG 0.35–1.64
  2. W1–08 OctLivingston (A)xG 0.53–1.73
  3. L0–54 OctMotherwell (H)xG 0.52–2.58
  4. L0–21 OctHibernian (H)xG 0.66–1.66
  5. D0–017 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.39–0.82
  6. D1–13 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.36–0.83

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockRoss County
Position10th12th
Played1111
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠3–⁠62–⁠3–⁠6
Points9 (0.82 per game)9 (0.82 per game)
Expected Points per game1.110.78
Goals8–⁠196–⁠19
xG per game0.87–⁠1.290.66–⁠1.54
Home: points, xG per game1.60, 1.28–⁠1.290.83, 0.66–⁠1.53
Away: points, xG per game0.17, 0.53–⁠1.280.80, 0.66–⁠1.55
ManagerDerek McInnes (11)Malky Mackay (49)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.20AttackKilmarnock0.97, 9thRoss County0.85, 12thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.32, 8thRoss County1.54, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctKilmarnock attack: 0.97Ross County attack: 0.850.970.85Ross CountyKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctKilmarnock defence: 1.32Ross County defence: 1.541.541.32

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockRoss County
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−33%−10%−56%+25%
Counter-attacks−53%−33%−42%+123%
Set pieces+8%+64%−2%+9%
Penalties−100%−38%−100%−38%
Headers−5%−14%−26%+6%
Left side−16%−1%−20%+1%
Centre−28%average−46%+40%
Right side−31%+17%−63%+30%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdRoss County concededLeft side−16%+30%Centre−28%+40%Right side−31%+1%Open play−33%+25%Counter-attacks−53%+123%Set pieces+8%+9%Headers−5%+6%

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−20%+17%Centre−46%averageRight side−63%−1%Open play−56%−10%Counter-attacks−42%−33%Set pieces−2%+64%Headers−26%−14%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockRoss County

0.87xG0.66
1.29xG against1.54
44%Possession42%
11.4Shots7.5
13.9Shots against17.2
2.8Shots on target1.7
1.2Big chances0.7
16.5Touches in the opposition box13.8
320Passes310
67%Pass accuracy63%
5.0Corners3.1
42%Field tilt35%
31.3Final-third entries28.6
8.9Box entries6.3
14.6Passes per defensive action14.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level380.951.14
Ahead121.150.81
Behind400.701.58

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level620.661.35
Ahead40.003.10
Behind240.741.77

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.070.241–3
16–300.120.201–3
31–450.190.240–4
46–600.280.143–1
61–750.100.161–2
76–900.100.312–6

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.050.180–0
16–300.150.200–2
31–450.090.311–1
46–600.060.401–8
61–750.150.201–1
76–900.150.253–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTWalker 6Hemming 5Wright 7Shaw 2Jones 1Taylor 10Dorsett 2Mayo 7Stokes 3Alebiosu 8Mayo 2Armstrong 1Polworth 4Alston 3Armstrong 1Power 11Donnelly 2Chrisene 4Jones 2McInroy 2McKenzie 8Chrisene 2Polworth 1Armstrong 3Shaw 3Lafferty 2Lafferty 6Shaw 2Doidge 23-4-2-1 in 3 of 11 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 5-3-2 (2), 3-5-1-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

Ross County

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTLaidlaw 11Johnson 7Watson 2Randall 2Baldwin 10Watson 1Iacovitti 11Purrington 11Callachan 6Paton 2Loturi 1Cancola 9Tillson 4Edwards 3Hiwula-Mayifuila 2Sims 2Callachan 4Dhanda 3Samuel 3Edwards 3Olaigbe 3Sims 2White 6Hiwula-Mayifuila 54-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
20 August 2022Ross County1–0KilmarnockxG 0.65–0.70
10 April 2021Kilmarnock2–2Ross CountyxG 0.69–1.07
6 March 2021Ross County3–2KilmarnockxG 1.21–1.67
21 November 2020Kilmarnock3–1Ross CountyxG 2.12–1.87
12 August 2020Ross County2–2KilmarnockxG 2.02–1.06

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Ross County won 2, and 2 were drawn. Goals 9–9 and xG 1.25–1.36 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong6585300.170.17
Shaw7602000.260.02
Lafferty8576100.180.01
Polworth6531020.060.11

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Edwards6614210.180.09
White6584100.170.08
Olaigbe4458000.080.04
Johnson7669000.050.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.