Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Kilmarnock 2–3 Rangers

Wednesday 18 January 2023, 20:00 · Rugby Park · Round 22 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee Kevin Clancy · Attendance 8,461

Kilmarnock Stokes 6', Wright 85' · Armstrong sent off 59'

Rangers Morelos 23', 72', Kent 51'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockRangers
Goals23
xG0.791.49
Expected Points0.801.91

Kilmarnock 17%Draw 29%Rangers 54%

Most likely score 1–1, 15%. Final score 2–3, 2%.

Rangers goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%5%1%7%5%1%3%5%5%2%1%15%12%15%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTArmstrong (Kilmarnock), second yellow card 59'Alston on for McKenzie, 37'McInroy on for Doidge, 64'Lafferty on for Vassell and Robinson on for Stokes, 80'Tillman on for Morelos, 78'Sands on for Kamara, 83'Stokes 6'Wright 85'Morelos 23'Kent 51'Morelos 72'Rangers 1.49Kilmarnock 0.7900.511.520153045607590HTArmstrong (Kilmarnock), second yellow card 59'Alston on for McKenzie, 37'McInroy on for Doidge, 64'Lafferty on for Vassell and Robinson on for Stokes, 80'Tillman on for Morelos, 78'Sands on for Kamara, 83'Stokes 6'Wright 85'Morelos 23'Kent 51'Morelos 72'1.490.79KilmarnockRangers

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockRangers

0.79 −0.07xG1.49 −0.48
0.31 −0.31xG on target2.26 +0.28
10 −1Shots13 −6
5 +2.2Shots on target7 +0.3
2 +0.8Big chances2 −1.1
15 −3Touches in the opposition box28 −11
22% −24Possession78% +11
203 −139Passes752 +172
56% −11Pass accuracy88% +4
12% −34Field tilt88% +8
17 −18Final-third entries79 +12
3 −5.9Box entries14 −7.5
24.6 +9.9Passes per defensive action7.2 −2.7
3 −1.2Corners4 −3.6
18 +2Tackles9 −6
17 +5.8Interceptions4 −3.1
14 −5Clearances16 +5
4 +0.9Saves3 +1.8
12 −1Fouls15 +5
2 +0.2Offsides2 −0.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Wright 53', 0.16 xGTaylor 5', 0.12 xGVassell 42', 0.07 xGTaylor 3', 0.05 xGArmstrong 19', 0.05 xGLafferty 90', 0.03 xGPolworth 8', 0.02 xGWright 29', 0.02 xGStokes 6', 0.21 xG, goalWright 85', 0.06 xG, goal27%0.21 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.21 xG, 1 goal59%0.46 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.46 xG, 1 goal5%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals3%0.02 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals6%0.05 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Rangers

Morelos 66', 0.17 xGMorelos 77', 0.14 xGTillman 86', 0.12 xGGoldson 17', 0.05 xGLundstram 29', 0.04 xGKent 16', 0.03 xGLundstram 43', 0.03 xGSakala 78', 0.03 xGSakala 16', 0.02 xGKent 43', 0.02 xGMorelos 23', 0.47 xG, goalMorelos 72', 0.19 xG, goalKent 51', 0.17 xG, goal11%0.17 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.17 xG, 0 goals77%1.15 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 1.15 xG, 3 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals9%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockRangers

0.18 5 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.44 12 shots, 3 goals
0.61 5 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.05 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
34 min (38%) · Kilmarnock 0.47, Rangers 0.27 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
17 min (19%) · Kilmarnock 0.07, Rangers 0.57 xG
Rangers ahead
39 min (43%) · Kilmarnock 0.25, Rangers 0.66 xG

Line-ups

202551961131472326WalkerAlebiosuTaylorWrightStokesArmstrongPolworthPowerMcKenzieVassellDoidgeGoalGoalYellow cardSent off, second yellowYellow card80'37'80'64'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes3326263118430371420McLaughlinTavernierGoldsonDaviesBarisicKamaraLundstramSakalaArfieldKentMorelosGoalYellow cardGoalGoalYellow card83'78'Rangers 4-2-3-1Michael Beale

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 37' Alston for McKenzie
  • 64' McInroy for Doidge
  • 80' Robinson for Stokes
  • 80' Lafferty for Vassell

Rangers substitutes

  • 78' Tillman for Morelos
  • 83' Sands for Kamara

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WalkerGK900.000.0000.0220
AlebiosuRB900.000.0000.0225
TaylorCB9010.170.031−0.02612
WrightCB9010.240.0410.05011
StokesLB8010.210.0000.0003
Armstrong RM5910.050.3130.0771
PolworthCM900.020.1410.0825
Power CM900.000.0400.0736
McKenzieLM370.000.0000.0011
VassellST800.070.000−0.0101
DoidgeST640.000.012−0.0353
AlstonMF530.000.0100.0122
McInroyMF260.000.000−0.0113
RobinsonMF100.000.000−0.0100
LaffertyFW100.030.0000.0000

Rangers

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McLaughlinGK900.000.0000.0210
TavernierRB900.000.1020.21115
GoldsonCB900.050.0310.33157
DaviesCB900.000.0100.0841
BarisicLB9010.000.3220.2176
KamaraDM830.000.0720.1792
LundstramDM900.070.0500.0651
SakalaRW9010.050.2110.23101
ArfieldAM900.000.0510.1233
Kent LW9010.220.110−0.0643
Morelos ST78210.980.0920.0210
TillmanMF120.120.0300.0400
SandsMF70.000.0300.0222

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Walker and Doidge: 3 passesTaylor and Vassell: 3 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 3 passesArmstrong and Doidge: 3 passesPower and Polworth: 3 passesAlebiosu and Armstrong: 4 passesWalker: 4 completed passesAlebiosu: 3 completed passesTaylor: 4 completed passesWright: 2 completed passesStokes: 3 completed passesArmstrong: 6 completed passesPower: 6 completed passesPolworth: 6 completed passesMcKenzie: 3 completed passesDoidge: 6 completed passesVassell: 2 completed passes202551961143172623WalkerAlebiosuTaylorWrightStokesArmstrongPowerPolworthMcKenzieDoidgeVassellStarters until 37' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Rangers

McLaughlin and Goldson: 10 passesTavernier and Sakala: 10 passesSakala and Arfield: 10 passesTavernier and Morelos: 11 passesGoldson and Morelos: 11 passesKent and Morelos: 11 passesTavernier and Kent: 12 passesDavies and Lundstram: 13 passesLundstram and Morelos: 13 passesDavies and Barisic: 16 passesBarisic and Morelos: 17 passesLundstram and Kent: 17 passesKamara and Morelos: 19 passesGoldson and Kamara: 22 passesBarisic and Kent: 22 passesTavernier and Goldson: 23 passesTavernier and Lundstram: 26 passesKamara and Lundstram: 26 passesGoldson and Lundstram: 31 passesKamara and Kent: 31 passesBarisic and Kamara: 32 passesDavies and Kamara: 33 passesGoldson and Davies: 52 passesMcLaughlin: 20 completed passesTavernier: 50 completed passesGoldson: 88 completed passesDavies: 70 completed passesBarisic: 51 completed passesKamara: 92 completed passesLundstram: 79 completed passesSakala: 21 completed passesArfield: 26 completed passesKent: 56 completed passesMorelos: 41 completed passes3326263118430371420McLaughlinTavernierGoldsonDaviesBarisicKamaraLundstramSakalaArfieldKentMorelosStarters until 78' · lines join pairs with 10+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
WalkerDoidge6
PowerPolworth6
TaylorVassell6
PolworthTaylor5
PowerAlebiosu5

Rangers

FromToPasses
DaviesGoldson29
GoldsonDavies28
KamaraBarisic20
DaviesKamara20
GoldsonLundstram18

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

13+8.18+0.912−0.96−1.02−3.311+3.77+0.13−3.110+3.43−4.69+2.65−0.53−1.06+0.43−2.19+4.24−0.20−2.45+1.02−2.01−1.50−1.81+0.31−0.92−0.82+0.51+0.20−0.40−0.50−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Rangers

1−2.72−1.68+0.56+1.43−1.11−5.35−0.15+1.28+2.38+2.111+5.62−2.00−3.45−1.815+9.26+1.00−4.62−1.73−1.27+2.52−1.61−1.23+1.40−2.40−3.22+1.10−0.70−0.71+0.50−0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.030.020.02−0.010.020.03−0.010.02−0.010.07−0.01−0.07−0.010.10LessMore

Rangers

0.010.010.020.070.030.030.010.090.060.030.050.030.050.080.060.040.020.060.140.040.040.080.100.07−0.020.24LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackKilmarnock0.97 → 0.97Rangers2.08 → 2.08Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.34 → 1.35Rangers0.67 → 0.68

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six3%2%−1
11th26%28%+2
Bottom16%18%+2
Rangers
Title6%7%+1
Dundee United
Top six5%5%0
11th22%22%0
Bottom11%11%0
Celtic
Title94%93%−1

From the forecast before the match (18 January 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockRangers
Expected goals0.632.04
Win10%70%
Expected Points0.502.30
Clean sheet13%53%

Kilmarnock 10%Draw 20%Rangers 70%

Most likely score 0–2, 14%. Both sides score 41%.

Rangers goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%10%5%2%1%4%9%9%6%3%1%1%3%3%2%1%14%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 January 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawRangers win
Kilmarnock
Top six3%9%4%2%
11th26%18%24%28%
Bottom16%7%11%18%
Rangers
Title6%2%3%7%
Dundee United
Top six5%3%4%5%
11th22%24%22%22%
Bottom11%16%12%11%
Celtic
Title94%98%97%93%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–27 JanCeltic (A)xG 0.08–3.48
  2. D0–02 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.70–0.35
  3. W2–128 DecAberdeen (H)xG 1.91–0.42
  4. D2–223 DecMotherwell (A)xG 0.34–1.33
  5. L1–317 DecHearts (A)xG 1.09–2.40
  6. W1–012 NovHibernian (H)xG 0.96–0.85

Rangers

  1. W2–08 JanDundee United (A)xG 1.60–0.46
  2. D2–22 JanCeltic (H)xG 2.00–1.17
  3. W3–028 DecMotherwell (H)xG 2.55–0.41
  4. W1–023 DecRoss County (A)xG 2.13–0.38
  5. W3–220 DecAberdeen (A)xG 1.58–0.54
  6. W3–215 DecHibernian (H)xG 2.31–0.62

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockRangers
Position11th2nd
Played2121
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠5–⁠1115–⁠4–⁠2
Points20 (0.95 per game)49 (2.33 per game)
Expected Points per game1.142.26
Goals17–⁠3548–⁠20
xG per game0.86–⁠1.271.97–⁠0.60
Home: points, xG per game1.80, 1.21–⁠1.052.64, 2.38–⁠0.51
Away: points, xG per game0.18, 0.54–⁠1.472.00, 1.50–⁠0.71
ManagerDerek McInnes (21)Michael Beale (6)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackKilmarnock0.97, 11thRangers2.08, 2ndDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.34, 8thRangers0.67, 2nd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctNovDecJanKilmarnock attack: 0.97Rangers attack: 2.082.080.97RangersKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctNovDecJanKilmarnock defence: 1.34Rangers defence: 0.671.340.67

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockRangers
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−39%−8%+74%−48%
Counter-attacks−52%−52%−27%−70%
Set pieces+6%+34%+9%−42%
Penalties−76%−29%+18%−100%
Headers+12%−15%+41%−57%
Left side−12%−3%+62%−45%
Centre−39%−7%+36%−43%
Right side−28%+18%+76%−58%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdRangers concededLeft side−12%−58%Centre−39%−43%Right side−28%−45%Open play−39%−48%Counter-attacks−52%−70%Set pieces+6%−42%Headers+12%−57%

Rangers attacking

Rangers createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+62%+18%Centre+36%−7%Right side+76%−3%Open play+74%−8%Counter-attacks−27%−52%Set pieces+9%+34%Headers+41%−15%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockRangers

0.86xG1.97
1.27xG against0.60
46%Possession67%
10.8Shots19.2
12.9Shots against7.4
2.8Shots on target6.7
1.2Big chances3.1
18.1Touches in the opposition box38.6
342Passes580
67%Pass accuracy84%
4.2Corners7.6
46%Field tilt80%
34.8Final-third entries67.4
8.9Box entries21.5
14.7Passes per defensive action9.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level361.020.97
Ahead170.861.12
Behind380.701.61

Rangers

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level282.370.65
Ahead401.940.53
Behind221.480.67

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.152–5
16–300.140.212–8
31–450.160.233–6
46–600.260.134–3
61–750.100.204–5
76–900.110.342–8

Rangers

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.320.106–5
16–300.240.094–2
31–450.300.106–4
46–600.410.1111–4
61–750.240.069–1
76–900.450.1412–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTWalker 12Hemming 9Alebiosu 9Mayo 8Armstrong 2Taylor 14Wright 12Mayo 8Stokes 5Chrisene 7McInroy 6Polworth 2Armstrong 7McKenzie 5Chrisene 3Donnelly 7Polworth 6Armstrong 4Power 17Alston 4Alebiosu 1Jones 6McKenzie 5Taylor 3Lafferty 8Cameron 5Armstrong 2Doidge 6Shaw 5Robinson 34-4-2 in 4 of 21 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (4), 3-4-2-1 (4), 5-3-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-4-3 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-3-3-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1)

Rangers

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMcGregor 13McLaughlin 8Tavernier 21Goldson 14King 7Davies 12Sands 7Lundstram 1Barisic 16Devine 3Yilmaz 2Jack 8Kamara 6Arfield 1Lundstram 19Sands 3Davis 3Sakala 7Wright 5Matondo 4Tillman 11Arfield 3Lawrence 3Kent 17Matondo 2Tillman 1Colak 15Morelos 5Sakala 14-2-3-1 in 19 of 21 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (19), 4-3-3 (2)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
6 August 2022Rangers2–0KilmarnockxG 1.77–0.37
13 February 2021Rangers1–0KilmarnockxG 1.47–0.08
1 November 2020Kilmarnock0–1RangersxG 0.50–2.80
22 August 2020Rangers2–0KilmarnockxG 2.93–0.10

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 0, Rangers won 4, and 0 were drawn. Goals 0–6 and xG 0.26–2.24 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong151,409530.200.19
Shaw7628000.250.02
Jones9704000.100.12
McInroy7538000.090.13

Rangers

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Morelos5721520.740.15
Sakala8665430.500.20
Colak151,1011100.590.08
Tavernier211,866750.290.26

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.