Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Rangers 3–1 Kilmarnock

Saturday 4 March 2023, 15:00 · Ibrox Stadium · Round 28 · Half-time 3–0 · Referee William Collum · Attendance 49,545

Rangers Goldson 6', Sakala 25', Tavernier 45' (pen)

Kilmarnock Dorsett 60'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

RangersKilmarnock
Goals31
xG3.550.79
Non-penalty xG2.760.79
Expected Points2.860.09

Rangers 93%Draw 5%Kilmarnock 1%

Most likely score 3–1, 14%. Final score 3–1, 14%.

Kilmarnock goalsRangers goals0123456+0123456+2%2%6%8%3%4%4%6%7%2%3%4%1%11%14%10%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTLundstram on for Raskin, 72'Morelos on for Sakala, 83'Hagi on for Colak, Souttar on for Davies, and Arfield on for Cantwell, 90+2'Jones on for Alebiosu, 46'Murray on for Armstrong, 72'Watson on for Power, 77'Stokes on for Wright and Sanders on for Dorsett, 84'Goldson 6'Sakala 25'Tavernier 45' (pen)Dorsett 60'Rangers 3.55Kilmarnock 0.79012340153045607590HTLundstram on for Raskin, 72'Morelos on for Sakala, 83'Hagi on for Colak, Souttar on for Davies, and Arfield on for Cantwell, 90+2'Jones on for Alebiosu, 46'Murray on for Armstrong, 72'Watson on for Power, 77'Stokes on for Wright and Sanders on for Dorsett, 84'Goldson 6'Sakala 25'Tavernier 45' (pen)Dorsett 60'3.550.79RangersKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

RangersKilmarnock

3.55 +1.46xG0.79 −0.16
2.76Non-penalty xG0.79
3.17 +0.99xG on target0.89 +0.22
21 +2Shots3 −8
8 +1.0Shots on target2 −1.0
7 +3.8Big chances2 +0.7
32 −7Touches in the opposition box14 −6
74% +7Possession26% −19
656 +67Passes220 −114
89% +4Pass accuracy66% 0
90% +9Field tilt10% −34
65 −4Final-third entries20 −14
14 −7.8Box entries5 −4.4
6.5 −3.2Passes per defensive action19.3 +4.6
7 −0.4Corners4 −0.3
16 +1Tackles13 −4
6 −1.1Interceptions6 −5.4
13 +2Clearances21 +2
1 −0.3Saves5 +1.6
19 +8Fouls13 +1
1 −1.3Offsides2 +0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Rangers

Sakala 18', 0.77 xGColak 82', 0.28 xGColak 6', 0.12 xGRaskin 12', 0.12 xGCantwell 87', 0.09 xGGoldson 28', 0.08 xGCantwell 6', 0.07 xGDavies 24', 0.07 xGColak 34', 0.07 xGMorelos 90+1', 0.07 xGSakala 15', 0.05 xGKent 63', 0.05 xGColak 69', 0.05 xGTavernier 75', 0.04 xGCantwell 86', 0.04 xGCantwell 6', 0.03 xGSakala 79', 0.03 xGColak 73', 0.02 xGGoldson 6', 0.59 xG, goalSakala 25', 0.13 xG, goal49%1.36 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 1.36 xG, 1 goal25%0.68 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.68 xG, 1 goal14%0.38 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.38 xG, 0 goals12%0.33 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.33 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Taylor 54', 0.43 xGJones 47', 0.06 xGDorsett 60', 0.30 xG, goal92%0.73 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.73 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGCentral box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals8%0.06 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

RangersKilmarnock

1.77 13 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.06 1 shot, 0 goals
0.99 7 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.73 2 shots, 1 goal
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
6 min (7%) · Rangers 0.81, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG
Rangers ahead
86 min (93%) · Rangers 2.74, Kilmarnock 0.79 xG

Line-ups

12626311384330914McGregorTavernierGoldsonDaviesBarisicCantwellJackRaskinSakalaColakKentGoalGoalYellow cardGoal90+2'90+2'72'83'90+2'Rangers 4-3-3Michael Beale201953253147241126WalkerWrightTaylorDorsettAlebiosuPolworthPowerMcKenzieChambersArmstrongDoidgeYellow cardGoalYellow card84'84'46'77'72'Kilmarnock 3-5-2Derek McInnes

Rangers substitutes

  • 72' Lundstram for Raskin
  • 83' Morelos for Sakala
  • 90+2' Souttar for Davies
  • 90+2' Arfield for Cantwell
  • 90+2' Hagi for Colak

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Jones for Alebiosu
  • 72' Murray for Armstrong
  • 77' Watson for Power
  • 84' Stokes for Wright
  • 84' Sanders for Dorsett

Players

Rangers

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McGregorGK900.000.0000.0102
TavernierRB9010.820.1820.0870
GoldsonCB9010.670.0300.16137
DaviesCB900.070.0310.15106
BarisicLB900.000.0730.0036
CantwellCM900.230.1400.20164
Jack CM900.000.0500.0673
RaskinCM720.120.0400.0975
SakalaRW8310.980.2910.1231
ColakST9010.540.1210.0411
KentLW900.050.3740.3150
LundstramMF180.000.0200.0440
MorelosFW70.070.0720.0600
SouttarDF00.000.0000.0000
ArfieldMF00.000.000––0
HagiFW00.000.000––0

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WalkerGK900.000.0000.0111
Wright CB840.000.0100.0334
TaylorCB9010.430.4410.1228
DorsettCB8410.300.0000.0118
AlebiosuRWB460.000.0000.0113
PolworthCM900.000.0000.0323
PowerCM770.000.0200.0215
McKenzie CM900.000.0000.0122
ChambersLWB900.000.0100.0214
ArmstrongST720.000.3010.0741
DoidgeST900.000.010−0.0201
JonesMF440.060.0200.0223
MurrayMF180.000.0000.0002
WatsonMF130.000.0000.0000
StokesDF60.000.0000.0001
SandersDF60.000.0000.0111

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Rangers

Tavernier and Raskin: 7 passesBarisic and Jack: 7 passesJack and Colak: 7 passesDavies and Kent: 8 passesColak and Kent: 8 passesGoldson and Sakala: 9 passesRaskin and Sakala: 9 passesMcGregor and Goldson: 10 passesGoldson and Raskin: 10 passesDavies and Barisic: 10 passesDavies and Cantwell: 10 passesBarisic and Kent: 10 passesJack and Kent: 10 passesTavernier and Sakala: 11 passesRaskin and Cantwell: 12 passesRaskin and Kent: 12 passesCantwell and Sakala: 12 passesTavernier and Jack: 13 passesGoldson and Cantwell: 14 passesCantwell and Jack: 14 passesRaskin and Jack: 16 passesGoldson and Jack: 17 passesTavernier and Goldson: 18 passesTavernier and Cantwell: 18 passesGoldson and Davies: 29 passesMcGregor: 20 completed passesTavernier: 46 completed passesGoldson: 59 completed passesDavies: 42 completed passesBarisic: 22 completed passesRaskin: 40 completed passesCantwell: 48 completed passesJack: 48 completed passesSakala: 19 completed passesColak: 23 completed passesKent: 31 completed passes12626314313830914McGregorTavernierGoldsonDaviesBarisicRaskinCantwellJackSakalaColakKentStarters until 72' · lines join pairs with 7+ passes

Kilmarnock

Dorsett and Taylor: 3 passesDorsett and Power: 3 passesPower and McKenzie: 3 passesArmstrong and Doidge: 3 passesTaylor and Armstrong: 4 passesChambers and Polworth: 4 passesWalker and Wright: 5 passesPower and Armstrong: 5 passesPolworth and Armstrong: 5 passesWright and Power: 10 passesWalker: 4 completed passesDorsett: 8 completed passesWright: 11 completed passesTaylor: 6 completed passesAlebiosu: 3 completed passesChambers: 6 completed passesPower: 15 completed passesMcKenzie: 7 completed passesPolworth: 7 completed passesArmstrong: 12 completed passesDoidge: 3 completed passes203195252447311126WalkerDorsettWrightTaylorAlebiosuChambersPowerMcKenziePolworthArmstrongDoidgeStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Rangers

FromToPasses
DaviesGoldson26
GoldsonDavies23
TavernierGoldson15
TavernierCantwell14
GoldsonCantwell14

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PowerWright7
PowerArmstrong6
ArmstrongPolworth6
WrightArmstrong5
DorsettPower4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Rangers

4+0.40−3.59+1.86+1.35+1.07+1.83−0.84−1.812+5.83−2.75+0.82−1.16−0.69+2.73−2.58+3.43−0.71−3.06+1.31−2.93+0.40−1.85+2.84+1.10−1.01+0.32+1.40−0.51+0.51−4.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 26 matches

Kilmarnock

3−2.57+0.222+9.68+1.02−2.84−3.69+1.95−0.98+1.38+0.46−0.97+1.32−1.64−1.47+2.14−0.75+0.71−1.23−0.71−3.11−1.41−1.01+0.10−1.80−2.73+1.61+0.20−0.70−0.42+1.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 27 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Rangers

0.010.010.010.010.030.020.020.010.050.050.050.080.030.060.070.030.060.100.040.040.030.040.030.08−0.020.130.120.15LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.040.04−0.01−0.010.060.010.010.030.010.04−0.01−0.010.11LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.24AttackRangers2.15 → 2.19Kilmarnock0.96 → 0.94Defence (lower is better)Rangers0.66 → 0.66Kilmarnock1.42 → 1.48

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Rangers
Title5%5%0
Kilmarnock
11th31%32%+1
Bottom30%31%+1
Dundee United
11th28%28%0
Bottom45%44%−1
Motherwell
11th10%10%0
Bottom4%4%0

From the forecast before the match (4 March 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

RangersKilmarnock
Expected goals3.030.45
Win88%3%
Expected Points2.720.18
Clean sheet63%5%

Rangers 88%Draw 9%Kilmarnock 3%

Most likely score 3–0, 14%. Both sides score 35%.

Kilmarnock goalsRangers goals0123456+0123456+3%1%9%4%1%6%1%6%1%5%1%7%3%5%2%14%14%11%

From the forecast as it stood on 4 March 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRangers winDrawKilmarnock win
Rangers
Title5%5%4%1%
Kilmarnock
11th31%32%28%20%
Bottom30%31%22%13%
Dundee United
11th28%28%25%31%
Bottom45%44%50%54%
Motherwell
11th10%10%10%17%
Bottom4%4%4%5%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Rangers

  1. W3–018 FebLivingston (A)xG 2.96–0.84
  2. W2–14 FebRoss County (H)xG 2.15–1.01
  3. W3–01 FebHearts (A)xG 3.07–0.86
  4. W2–028 JanSt. Johnstone (H)xG 3.29–0.23
  5. W3–218 JanKilmarnock (A)xG 1.49–0.79
  6. W2–08 JanDundee United (A)xG 1.60–0.46

Kilmarnock

  1. D1–125 FebMotherwell (H)xG 0.75–1.24
  2. L0–218 FebHibernian (A)xG 0.82–2.94
  3. L1–34 FebLivingston (A)xG 1.12–1.45
  4. W1–01 FebDundee United (H)xG 2.71–1.37
  5. L0–328 JanRoss County (A)xG 1.38–1.74
  6. L2–318 JanRangers (H)xG 0.79–1.49

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

RangersKilmarnock
Position2nd11th
Played2627
Won, drawn, lost20–⁠4–⁠26–⁠6–⁠15
Points64 (2.46 per game)24 (0.89 per game)
Expected Points per game2.301.12
Goals61–⁠2322–⁠47
xG per game2.09–⁠0.630.95–⁠1.36
Home: points, xG per game2.69, 2.44–⁠0.531.69, 1.26–⁠1.12
Away: points, xG per game2.23, 1.74–⁠0.740.14, 0.66–⁠1.59
ManagerMichael Beale (11)Derek McInnes (27)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.24AttackRangers2.15, 2ndKilmarnock0.96, 9thDefence (lower is better)Rangers0.66, 2ndKilmarnock1.42, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctNovDecJanFebRangers attack: 2.15Kilmarnock attack: 0.962.150.96KilmarnockRangersDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5AugSepOctNovDecJanFebRangers defence: 0.66Kilmarnock defence: 1.421.420.66

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

RangersKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+80%−49%−33%+5%
Counter-attacks−20%−72%−40%+9%
Set pieces+26%−29%+21%+18%
Penalties+45%−100%−80%−20%
Headers+56%−44%+12%−11%
Left side+52%−47%+3%average
Centre+55%−41%−35%+12%
Right side+85%−50%−19%+13%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Rangers attacking

Rangers createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+52%+13%Centre+55%+12%Right side+85%averageOpen play+80%+5%Counter-attacks−20%+9%Set pieces+26%+18%Headers+56%−11%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdRangers concededLeft side+3%−50%Centre−35%−41%Right side−19%−47%Open play−33%−49%Counter-attacks−40%−72%Set pieces+21%−29%Headers+12%−44%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

RangersKilmarnock

2.09xG0.95
0.63xG against1.36
67%Possession45%
19.1Shots11.4
7.4Shots against12.8
7.0Shots on target3.0
3.2Big chances1.3
39.1Touches in the opposition box19.9
589Passes334
85%Pass accuracy66%
7.4Corners4.3
81%Field tilt45%
68.5Final-third entries34.3
21.8Box entries9.4
9.7Passes per defensive action14.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Rangers

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level282.430.67
Ahead442.090.59
Behind181.530.66

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level321.061.12
Ahead181.041.22
Behind390.811.63

xG by period

Rangers

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.320.118–6
16–300.300.126–2
31–450.310.088–4
46–600.410.1013–4
61–750.280.0812–2
76–900.470.1414–5

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.193–8
16–300.150.243–11
31–450.190.224–6
46–600.270.195–6
61–750.110.204–7
76–900.110.333–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Rangers

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMcGregor 16McLaughlin 10Tavernier 26Goldson 19King 7Davies 17Sands 7Lundstram 1Barisic 21Devine 3Yilmaz 2Kamara 10Jack 10Raskin 1Lundstram 22Sands 3Davis 3Sakala 10Wright 5Tillman 4Tillman 12Arfield 4Lawrence 3Kent 22Matondo 2Tillman 1Colak 15Morelos 10Sakala 14-2-3-1 in 24 of 26 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (24), 4-3-3 (2)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTWalker 17Hemming 10Mayo 11Alebiosu 11Armstrong 3Taylor 18Wright 17Mayo 10Stokes 6Chrisene 7McInroy 6Chambers 3Armstrong 11McKenzie 5Jones 3Polworth 11Armstrong 4Alston 4Power 20Donnelly 8Jones 1McKenzie 11Jones 6Taylor 3Doidge 10Cameron 5Armstrong 2Lafferty 8Vassell 6Robinson 54-4-2 in 8 of 27 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (8), 3-4-2-1 (4), 5-3-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-4-1-2 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 4-5-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-3-3-1 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
18 January 2023Kilmarnock2–3RangersxG 0.79–1.49
6 August 2022Rangers2–0KilmarnockxG 1.77–0.37
13 February 2021Rangers1–0KilmarnockxG 1.47–0.08
1 November 2020Kilmarnock0–1RangersxG 0.50–2.80
22 August 2020Rangers2–0KilmarnockxG 2.93–0.10

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Rangers won 5, Kilmarnock won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 9–2 and xG 2.09–0.37 per game.

Key players

Rangers

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Morelos101,109940.820.20
Sakala12998450.460.23
Colak151,1511100.570.08
Tavernier262,3161050.310.25

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Vassell6482010.280.13
Armstrong201,815640.170.20
Robinson5493200.260.09
Shaw7628000.250.02

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.