Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Ross County 0–3 Celtic

Saturday 4 November 2023, 12:30 · Global Energy Stadium · Round 12 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee David Munro · Attendance 6,544

Ross County Brown sent off 10'

Celtic Turnbull 45+7', Palma 78', Forrest 83'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Ross CountyCeltic
Goals03
xG0.263.40
Expected Points0.062.90

Ross County 1%Draw 4%Celtic 95%

Most likely score 0–3, 18%. Final score 0–3, 18%.

Celtic goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+2%7%10%8%2%5%6%5%3%3%14%18%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTBrown (Ross County), red card 10'Nightingale on for White, 13'Samuel on for Murray and Purrington on for Harmon, 46'Turner on for Dhanda, 69'High on for Loturi, 81'Holm on for Bernardo, 61'Palma on for Maeda and Furuhashi on for Turnbull, 62'Forrest on for Yang and Iwata on for McGregor, 81'Turnbull 45+7'Palma 78'Forrest 83'Celtic 3.40Ross County 0.26012340153045607590HTBrown (Ross County), red card 10'Nightingale on for White, 13'Samuel on for Murray and Purrington on for Harmon, 46'Turner on for Dhanda, 69'High on for Loturi, 81'Holm on for Bernardo, 61'Palma on for Maeda and Furuhashi on for Turnbull, 62'Forrest on for Yang and Iwata on for McGregor, 81'Turnbull 45+7'Palma 78'Forrest 83'3.400.26Ross CountyCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Ross CountyCeltic

0.26 −0.72xG3.40 +0.70
0.00 −0.99xG on target4.99 +2.23
3 −8Shots39 +20
0 −3.7Shots on target16 +8.5
0 −2.1Big chances4 −0.3
5 −12Touches in the opposition box54 +14
22% −21Possession78% +10
189 −138Passes703 +34
56% −8Pass accuracy89% +5
14% −30Field tilt86% +10
8 −22Final-third entries96 +28
4 −5.2Box entries25 +3.4
37.8 +22Passes per defensive action6.7 −4
2 −2.9Corners13 +5.1
14 +1Tackles15 −1
4 −5.4Interceptions2 −4.2
32 +11Clearances10 −6
13 +9.3Saves0 −1.9
9 −3.9Fouls10 +0.4
0 −2.2Offsides3 +1.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Ross County

White 1', 0.24 xGMurray 45+8', 0.01 xGAllardice 90+3', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals92%0.24 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.24 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals4%0.01 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals4%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Furuhashi 64', 0.53 xGBernardo 38', 0.48 xGOh 90+4', 0.20 xGFuruhashi 80', 0.14 xGOh 22', 0.12 xGOh 27', 0.12 xGScales 13', 0.11 xGYang 64', 0.11 xGYang 27', 0.10 xGOh 27', 0.09 xGYang 4', 0.07 xGBernardo 30', 0.07 xGOh 45+5', 0.06 xGBernardo 45+6', 0.06 xGTurnbull 54', 0.06 xGPalma 69', 0.06 xGFuruhashi 90+4', 0.06 xGTurnbull 11', 0.05 xGCarter-Vickers 15', 0.05 xGScales 29', 0.05 xGHolm 77', 0.05 xGMcGregor 19', 0.04 xGMcGregor 21', 0.04 xGCarter-Vickers 28', 0.04 xGTurnbull 45+3', 0.04 xGPalma 71', 0.04 xGHolm 74', 0.04 xGMaeda 21', 0.03 xGScales 28', 0.03 xGBernardo 35', 0.03 xGOh 50', 0.03 xGBernardo 53', 0.03 xGScales 68', 0.03 xGCarter-Vickers 82', 0.03 xGScales 90+1', 0.03 xGFuruhashi 78', 0.02 xGForrest 83', 0.24 xG, goalTurnbull 45+7', 0.03 xG, goalPalma 78', 0.02 xG, goal47%1.60 xGSix-yard box: 6 shots, 1.60 xG, 1 goal21%0.72 xGCentral box: 9 shots, 0.72 xG, 0 goals10%0.33 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.33 xG, 0 goals19%0.63 xGEdge of the box: 14 shots, 0.63 xG, 1 goal4%0.12 xGFurther out: 4 shots, 0.12 xG, 1 goal

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Ross CountyCeltic

0.25 2 shots, 0 goalsOpen play2.61 26 shots, 3 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.14 1 shot, 0 goals
0.01 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.65 12 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
52 min (51%) · Ross County 0.24, Celtic 1.70 xG
Celtic ahead
50 min (49%) · Ross County 0.02, Celtic 1.70 xG

Line-ups

14542161426101526LaidlawBrownBaldwinLeakHarmonLoturiRandallAllardiceDhandaMurrayWhiteSent off46'81'69'46'13'Ross County 4-3-1-2Malky Mackay1562053284214381913HartRalstonCarter-VickersScalesTaylorBernardoMcGregorTurnbullMaedaOhYangYellow cardGoal61'81'62'62'81'Celtic 4-3-3Brendan Rodgers

Ross County substitutes

  • 13' Nightingale for White
  • 46' Purrington for Harmon
  • 46' Samuel for Murray
  • 69' Turner for Dhanda
  • 81' High for Loturi

Celtic substitutes

  • 61' Holm for Bernardo
  • 62' Furuhashi for Turnbull
  • 62' Palma for Maeda · goal 78', 1 assist
  • 81' Iwata for McGregor
  • 81' Forrest for Yang · goal 83'

Players

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LaidlawGK900.000.0000.0111
Brown RB100.000.1810.1710
BaldwinCB900.000.0100.03411
LeakCB900.000.000−0.0107
HarmonLB460.000.0100.0113
LoturiCM810.000.0200.0326
RandallCM900.000.0100.00112
AllardiceCM900.010.010−0.0425
DhandaAM690.000.0200.0003
MurrayST460.010.0000.0210
WhiteST130.240.0000.0001
NightingaleDF770.000.010−0.0114
PurringtonDF440.000.0000.0005
SamuelFW440.000.0100.0002
TurnerMF210.000.0000.0002
HighMF90.000.000−0.0101

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0200
RalstonRB900.000.2340.0790
Carter-VickersCB900.120.1230.32135
ScalesCB9010.240.6930.59133
TaylorLB900.000.2820.4283
BernardoCM610.670.020−0.0203
McGregor CM8110.070.0740.0531
TurnbullCM6210.180.5950.2031
MaedaRW620.030.1120.0130
OhST900.610.182−0.0424
YangLW810.280.3930.30113
HolmMF290.080.0100.0113
FuruhashiFW280.750.0300.0200
PalmaFW28110.120.5620.1701
IwataMF90.000.0100.0210
ForrestFW910.240.0100.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Hart and Scales: 5 passesRalston and Turnbull: 5 passesTaylor and Oh: 5 passesMcGregor and Yang: 5 passesCarter-Vickers and Maeda: 6 passesBernardo and McGregor: 6 passesCarter-Vickers and Turnbull: 7 passesHart and Carter-Vickers: 8 passesScales and Yang: 9 passesCarter-Vickers and Bernardo: 9 passesCarter-Vickers and Taylor: 10 passesRalston and McGregor: 11 passesScales and McGregor: 11 passesCarter-Vickers and McGregor: 12 passesTurnbull and Yang: 12 passesMcGregor and Turnbull: 14 passesTaylor and McGregor: 15 passesScales and Turnbull: 17 passesRalston and Bernardo: 19 passesRalston and Maeda: 23 passesTaylor and Yang: 24 passesTaylor and Turnbull: 25 passesScales and Taylor: 29 passesRalston and Carter-Vickers: 36 passesScales and Carter-Vickers: 52 passesHart: 15 completed passesRalston: 57 completed passesScales: 68 completed passesCarter-Vickers: 74 completed passesTaylor: 58 completed passesBernardo: 22 completed passesMcGregor: 39 completed passesTurnbull: 46 completed passesMaeda: 19 completed passesOh: 11 completed passesYang: 28 completed passes1565203284214381913HartRalstonScalesCarter-VickersTaylorBernardoMcGregorTurnbullMaedaOhYangStarters until 61' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Ross County

FromToPasses
LaidlawNightingale8
BaldwinNightingale6
AllardiceBaldwin6
BaldwinAllardice5
PurringtonSamuel4

Celtic

FromToPasses
ScalesCarter-Vickers43
Carter-VickersScales37
ScalesTaylor26
RalstonCarter-Vickers24
TaylorScales24

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Ross County

3−1.921+14.821+9.68−2.45+0.16−2.410+4.112+6.68−0.55−5.53−2.02−3.70−3.10−4.43−2.62−3.27+2.60−3.13−1.61−4.26+3.10−2.210.00−1.80−2.61−0.52+1.50−0.90−0.40−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Celtic

0−3.54+0.76−0.99+4.63−4.83−1.84+0.55−1.814+6.64−1.52−1.71−2.75−1.34−4.63−1.84+0.72−0.30−2.92−4.26+2.10−2.62−0.12−0.33−1.60−0.80−0.22+1.61+0.42+0.64−6.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Ross County

0.010.01−0.010.010.020.010.03−0.04−0.01−0.01−0.010.20LessMore

Celtic

0.010.010.010.010.020.030.020.020.010.060.090.060.010.030.140.210.070.02−0.010.180.240.17−0.03−0.160.050.340.250.29LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackRoss County1.04 → 1.01Celtic2.35 → 2.38Defence (lower is better)Ross County1.51 → 1.55Celtic0.74 → 0.72

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Ross County
Top six17%15%−2
11th17%18%+1
Bottom15%16%+1
Celtic
Title73%76%+3
Rangers
Title27%24%−3

From the forecast before the match (4 November 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Ross CountyCeltic
Expected goals0.702.47
Win8%76%
Expected Points0.412.43
Clean sheet8%50%

Ross County 8%Draw 16%Celtic 76%

Most likely score 0–2, 13%. Both sides score 46%.

Celtic goalsRoss County goals0123456+0123456+5%7%3%2%3%8%9%7%5%2%1%1%3%3%3%2%10%13%11%

From the forecast as it stood on 4 November 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowRoss County winDrawCeltic win
Ross County
Top six17%30%22%15%
11th17%11%14%18%
Bottom15%8%13%16%
Celtic
Title73%62%65%76%
Rangers
Title27%38%35%24%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Ross County

  1. D2–231 OctHibernian (A)xG 0.52–0.50
  2. D3–328 OctMotherwell (A)xG 1.92–2.34
  3. D0–024 OctDundee FC (A)xG 0.32–0.96
  4. L0–130 SepHearts (H)xG 0.40–0.98
  5. L0–424 SepAberdeen (A)xG 0.85–3.33
  6. D1–116 SepLivingston (H)xG 0.87–0.17

Celtic

  1. W2–11 NovSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.89–0.62
  2. D0–028 OctHibernian (A)xG 1.49–0.57
  3. W4–122 OctHearts (A)xG 4.01–0.73
  4. W3–17 OctKilmarnock (H)xG 2.75–1.54
  5. W2–130 SepMotherwell (A)xG 1.68–0.82
  6. W3–023 SepLivingston (A)xG 2.61–0.94

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Ross CountyCeltic
Position10th1st
Played1011
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠4–⁠49–⁠2–⁠0
Points10 (1.00 per game)29 (2.64 per game)
Expected Points per game0.982.33
Goals11–⁠1725–⁠7
xG per game0.98–⁠1.632.70–⁠1.00
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.09–⁠0.902.60, 3.20–⁠0.88
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.91–⁠2.122.67, 2.28–⁠1.10
ManagerMalky Mackay (86)Brendan Rodgers (11)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.31AttackRoss County1.04, 9thCeltic2.35, 1stDefence (lower is better)Ross County1.51, 11thCeltic0.74, 2nd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovRoss County attack: 1.04Celtic attack: 2.352.351.04CelticRoss CountyDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovRoss County defence: 1.51Celtic defence: 0.741.510.74

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Ross CountyCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−18%+7%+103%−2%
Counter-attacks−55%+122%+200%−84%
Set pieces−19%−8%+17%−47%
Penalties−100%+80%+173%−100%
Headers−20%−38%−2%−35%
Left side+5%−8%+81%average
Centre−44%+29%+99%−26%
Right sideaverage−5%+71%−30%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdCeltic concededLeft side+5%−30%Centre−44%−26%Right sideaverageaverageOpen play−18%−2%Counter-attacks−55%−84%Set pieces−19%−47%Headers−20%−35%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdRoss County concededLeft side+81%−5%Centre+99%+29%Right side+71%−8%Open play+103%+7%Counter-attacks+200%+122%Set pieces+17%−8%Headers−2%−38%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Ross CountyCeltic

0.98xG2.70
1.63xG against1.00
43%Possession68%
10.6Shots18.9
14.0Shots against9.1
3.7Shots on target7.5
2.1Big chances4.3
17.0Touches in the opposition box39.6
327Passes669
63%Pass accuracy84%
4.9Corners7.9
44%Field tilt75%
29.6Final-third entries67.6
9.2Box entries21.6
15.7Passes per defensive action11.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level500.971.06
Ahead121.792.15
Behind270.612.45

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level462.440.67
Ahead433.011.38
Behind10.900.00

xG by period

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.100–0
16–300.160.340–5
31–450.080.431–3
46–600.180.234–3
61–750.150.163–3
76–900.220.373–3

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.270.153–1
16–300.580.126–1
31–450.250.123–0
46–600.640.113–1
61–750.280.233–2
76–900.690.267–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Ross County

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLaidlaw 10Nightingale 5Loturi 1Turner 1Baldwin 10Leak 9Harmon 1Brown 10Randall 9Allardice 2Turner 4Loturi 3Dhanda 2Purrington 3Harmon 3Reid 3Dhanda 4Loturi 2Sims 2White 8Brophy 2Murray 9Dhanda 13-4-1-2 in 4 of 10 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (4), 4-4-2 (3), 4-3-1-2 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 10Bain 1Johnston 9Ralston 2Carter-Vickers 5Lagerbielke 4Phillips 2Scales 9Nawrocki 2Taylor 11O'Riley 11McGregor 11Turnbull 6Hatate 4Bernardo 1Maeda 4Abada 3Forrest 2Furuhashi 11Maeda 6Palma 4Yang 14-3-3 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
5 August 2023Celtic4–2Ross CountyxG 4.15–1.13
2 April 2023Ross County0–2CelticxG 0.40–3.30
12 November 2022Celtic2–1Ross CountyxG 1.88–0.84
6 August 2022Ross County1–3CelticxG 0.39–1.75
24 April 2022Ross County0–2CelticxG 0.30–2.76
19 March 2022Celtic4–0Ross CountyxG 3.36–0.14

11 league meetings since 2020/21: Ross County won 1, Celtic won 10, and 0 were drawn. Goals 6–29 and xG 0.58–2.76 per game.

Key players

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murray9681310.290.08
Loturi6527100.230.06
White8679200.240.04
Dhanda9638020.020.23

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Furuhashi11862520.500.16
O'Riley11940630.420.23
Maeda10839220.430.06
Taylor11959110.090.22

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.