Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Celtic 1–0 Ross County

Saturday 27 January 2024, 15:00 · Celtic Park · Round 23 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Euan Anderson · Attendance 58,850

Celtic A. Johnston 1'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticRoss County
Goals10
xG2.021.08
Non-penalty xG1.231.08
Expected Points2.080.65

Celtic 60%Draw 28%Ross County 12%

Most likely score 2–1, 19%. Final score 1–0, 5%.

Ross County goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+1%3%1%5%6%6%8%4%11%4%1%4%2%1%18%19%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTNawrocki on for Carter-Vickers and Kühn on for Palma, 64'M. Johnston on for Abada, 76'Turnbull on for Bernardo, 89'Harmon on for Khela, 61'White on for Murray, 68'Sims on for King, 80'A. Johnston 1'Celtic 2.02Ross County 1.0801230153045607590HTNawrocki on for Carter-Vickers and Kühn on for Palma, 64'M. Johnston on for Abada, 76'Turnbull on for Bernardo, 89'Harmon on for Khela, 61'White on for Murray, 68'Sims on for King, 80'A. Johnston 1'2.021.08CelticRoss County

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticRoss County

2.02 −0.78xG1.08 +0.21
1.23Non-penalty xG1.08
1.67 −1.13xG on target0.33 −0.50
17 −4.5Shots7 −2.9
7 −0.9Shots on target1 −2.4
2 −2.2Big chances1 −0.5
31 −16Touches in the opposition box21 +4
70% 0Possession30% −14
680 +16Passes277 −55
87% +2Pass accuracy69% +5
83% +2Field tilt17% −28
89 +13Final-third entries19 −11
20 −5.1Box entries9 −0.1
7.6 −3Passes per defensive action21.2 +6
7 −3.3Corners7 +2.2
20 +5Tackles22 +8
3 −2.2Interceptions16 +6.6
17 +2Clearances23 −1
1 −0.5Saves6 +2.2
12 +2.5Fouls14 +1.6
0 −2.1Offsides1 −0.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

O'Riley 80', 0.17 xGCarter-Vickers 53', 0.16 xGAbada 1', 0.15 xGO'Riley 19', 0.15 xGBernardo 19', 0.13 xGMcGregor 46', 0.09 xGPalma 45+1', 0.07 xGBernardo 6', 0.06 xGFuruhashi 53', 0.06 xGMcGregor 45+5', 0.05 xGMcGregor 90+3', 0.04 xGBernabei 45', 0.02 xGPalma 45+5', 0.02 xGAbada 34', 0.01 xGAbada 45+5', 0.01 xGA. Johnston 1', 0.03 xG, goal7%0.09 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.09 xG, 0 goals36%0.44 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.44 xG, 0 goals28%0.34 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.34 xG, 0 goals29%0.36 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.36 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Ross County

Nightingale 39', 0.73 xGWhite 90+1', 0.20 xGSims 90+4', 0.07 xGJenks 24', 0.03 xGDhanda 40', 0.02 xGHarmon 62', 0.02 xGLoturi 12', 0.01 xG67%0.73 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.73 xG, 0 goals28%0.30 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.30 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals6%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticRoss County

0.81 11 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.04 2 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.20 1 shot, 0 goals
0.42 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.84 4 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 0 goalsPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
1 min (1%) · Celtic 0.18, Ross County 0.00 xG
Celtic ahead
98 min (99%) · Celtic 1.84, Ross County 1.08 xG

Line-ups

12205253342281187HartA. JohnstonCarter-VickersScalesBernabeiO'RileyMcGregorBernardoAbadaFuruhashiPalmaGoalYellow card64'89'76'64'Celtic 4-3-3Brendan Rodgers40428353192118141015WickensBrownAyinaNightingaleBorthwick-JacksonKhelaJenksKingLoturiDhandaMurrayYellow card61'80'68'Ross County 4-5-1Derek Adams

Celtic substitutes

  • 64' Nawrocki for Carter-Vickers
  • 64' Kühn for Palma
  • 76' M. Johnston for Abada
  • 89' Turnbull for Bernardo

Ross County substitutes

  • 61' Harmon for Khela
  • 68' White for Murray
  • 80' Sims for King

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HartGK900.000.0000.0200
A. JohnstonRB9010.030.0610.1084
Carter-VickersCB640.160.0400.20125
ScalesCB900.000.1220.37268
BernabeiLB900.020.0310.01312
O'RileyCM900.320.0600.0942
McGregorCM900.180.2710.2662
Bernardo CM890.190.071−0.0814
AbadaRW760.180.1600.0961
FuruhashiST900.060.0110.0001
PalmaLW640.880.112−0.0131
NawrockiDF260.000.0200.1281
KühnFW260.000.0000.0340
M. JohnstonFW140.000.0100.0000
TurnbullMF10.000.0000.0000

Ross County

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WickensGK900.000.0100.0123
Brown RB900.000.0100.0324
AyinaCB900.000.0000.01112
NightingaleCB900.730.0000.0108
Borthwick-JacksonLB900.000.0100.03411
KhelaRM610.000.0100.0102
JenksCM900.030.071−0.0219
KingCM800.000.0110.0025
LoturiCM900.010.0700.0927
DhandaLM900.020.2720.1063
MurrayST680.000.0000.0113
HarmonDF290.020.0000.0210
WhiteFW220.200.000−0.0600
SimsFW100.070.0610.0830

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

A. Johnston and Bernardo: 5 passesA. Johnston and Palma: 5 passesCarter-Vickers and O'Riley: 5 passesCarter-Vickers and Bernabei: 7 passesBernabei and Bernardo: 7 passesMcGregor and Abada: 7 passesMcGregor and Palma: 7 passesScales and O'Riley: 8 passesBernabei and McGregor: 8 passesO'Riley and Abada: 9 passesHart and Scales: 11 passesHart and Carter-Vickers: 12 passesBernardo and McGregor: 12 passesA. Johnston and O'Riley: 13 passesO'Riley and McGregor: 13 passesCarter-Vickers and Abada: 14 passesScales and Bernardo: 15 passesCarter-Vickers and McGregor: 16 passesBernabei and Palma: 17 passesA. Johnston and McGregor: 18 passesScales and McGregor: 19 passesA. Johnston and Abada: 22 passesScales and Palma: 23 passesA. Johnston and Carter-Vickers: 27 passesScales and Bernabei: 32 passesScales and Carter-Vickers: 36 passesHart: 17 completed passesA. Johnston: 51 completed passesScales: 77 completed passesCarter-Vickers: 66 completed passesBernabei: 39 completed passesO'Riley: 26 completed passesBernardo: 25 completed passesMcGregor: 53 completed passesAbada: 25 completed passesFuruhashi: 3 completed passesPalma: 31 completed passes12520253328421187HartA. JohnstonScalesCarter-VickersBernabeiO'RileyBernardoMcGregorAbadaFuruhashiPalmaStarters until 64' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Ross County

Ayina and Jenks: 3 passesKhela and Jenks: 3 passesKhela and Dhanda: 3 passesJenks and Loturi: 3 passesDhanda and Murray: 3 passesBrown and Ayina: 4 passesAyina and Khela: 4 passesNightingale and King: 4 passesKhela and King: 4 passesLoturi and Dhanda: 4 passesBrown and Jenks: 5 passesBrown and Loturi: 5 passesBorthwick-Jackson and Dhanda: 5 passesJenks and Dhanda: 5 passesLoturi and Murray: 6 passesKing and Dhanda: 7 passesWickens and Ayina: 8 passesBrown and Khela: 9 passesBorthwick-Jackson and King: 12 passesWickens: 8 completed passesBrown: 15 completed passesAyina: 11 completed passesNightingale: 4 completed passesBorthwick-Jackson: 13 completed passesKhela: 15 completed passesJenks: 12 completed passesLoturi: 11 completed passesKing: 18 completed passesDhanda: 14 completed passesMurray: 9 completed passes40428353192114181015WickensBrownAyinaNightingaleBorthwick-JacksonKhelaJenksLoturiKingDhandaMurrayStarters until 61' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
ScalesBernabei24
BernabeiScales21
Carter-VickersScales20
ScalesPalma17
McGregorA. Johnston17

Ross County

FromToPasses
Borthwick-JacksonKing7
BrownKhela6
KingDhanda6
BrownLoturi6
Borthwick-JacksonHarmon6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

4+1.15+1.016+7.24−1.73−1.34−1.83−1.56+2.36−0.58+0.53−1.64+0.42−1.78+1.76−1.64−0.31−2.11−1.46+3.05−0.22−1.65+2.23+1.41−2.12−2.02+1.10−0.62+1.42+1.41−0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 22 matches

Ross County

7+2.55−2.622+8.410−0.35−0.312+4.012+5.56+0.413+5.510+0.43−2.13−2.12−1.62−2.64−2.03−2.12−2.00−2.51−3.34−1.47+4.43+1.32+1.30−1.81−1.51−0.32+1.40−0.91+0.50−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.010.030.050.020.010.020.060.050.050.010.080.100.040.07−0.010.030.030.070.070.130.150.11LessMore

Ross County

0.010.010.010.020.010.010.010.010.020.010.060.030.01−0.010.04−0.06−0.060.090.08LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.28AttackCeltic2.37 → 2.35Ross County0.97 → 0.96Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.71 → 0.72Ross County1.51 → 1.51

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title67%68%+1
Ross County
Top six3%3%0
11th29%29%0
Bottom18%19%+1
Rangers
Title33%32%−1
Livingston
11th21%22%+1
Bottom62%61%−1

From the forecast before the match (27 January 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticRoss County
Expected goals3.330.49
Win90%3%
Expected Points2.770.16
Clean sheet61%4%

Celtic 90%Draw 8%Ross County 3%

Most likely score 3–0, 13%. Both sides score 38%.

Ross County goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+2%7%4%6%1%7%2%6%1%7%4%7%4%12%13%11%

From the forecast as it stood on 27 January 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawRoss County win
Celtic
Title67%68%55%48%
Ross County
Top six3%3%4%12%
11th29%29%28%20%
Bottom18%19%12%8%
Rangers
Title33%32%45%52%
Livingston
11th21%22%16%16%
Bottom62%61%68%70%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. W3–02 JanSt. Mirren (A)xG 3.62–0.18
  2. W2–130 DecRangers (H)xG 0.64–0.97
  3. W3–026 DecDundee FC (A)xG 2.79–0.13
  4. W2–023 DecLivingston (H)xG 3.66–0.00
  5. L0–216 DecHearts (H)xG 1.60–0.34
  6. L1–210 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 1.68–2.06

Ross County

  1. L0–32 JanAberdeen (H)xG 0.14–1.72
  2. D2–230 DecHearts (A)xG 1.54–1.87
  3. L0–116 DecDundee FC (H)xG 0.90–2.43
  4. L0–29 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.62–0.94
  5. W3–05 DecMotherwell (H)xG 1.43–1.18
  6. W1–028 NovSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.66–0.24

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticRoss County
Position1st11th
Played2219
Won, drawn, lost17–⁠3–⁠24–⁠6–⁠9
Points54 (2.45 per game)18 (0.95 per game)
Expected Points per game2.390.96
Goals53–⁠1517–⁠29
xG per game2.80–⁠0.840.87–⁠1.55
Home: points, xG per game2.36, 3.08–⁠0.711.10, 0.86–⁠1.32
Away: points, xG per game2.55, 2.52–⁠0.960.78, 0.87–⁠1.80
ManagerBrendan Rodgers (22)Derek Adams (7)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.28AttackCeltic2.37, 1stRoss County0.97, 11thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.71, 2ndRoss County1.51, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanCeltic attack: 2.37Ross County attack: 0.972.370.97Ross CountyCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanCeltic defence: 0.71Ross County defence: 1.511.510.71

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticRoss County
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+125%−22%−20%+18%
Counter-attacks+159%−69%−62%+49%
Set pieces+43%−41%−38%+9%
Penalties+124%−100%−100%−14%
Headers+41%−31%−24%−12%
Left side+109%−19%−19%+6%
Centre+92%−29%−38%+27%
Right side+129%−47%−17%+13%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdRoss County concededLeft side+109%+13%Centre+92%+27%Right side+129%+6%Open play+125%+18%Counter-attacks+159%+49%Set pieces+43%+9%Headers+41%−12%

Ross County attacking

Ross County createdCeltic concededLeft side−19%−47%Centre−38%−29%Right side−17%−19%Open play−20%−22%Counter-attacks−62%−69%Set pieces−38%−41%Headers−24%−31%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticRoss County

2.80xG0.87
0.84xG against1.55
70%Possession44%
21.5Shots9.9
7.4Shots against15.3
7.9Shots on target3.4
4.2Big chances1.5
47.4Touches in the opposition box16.5
664Passes332
85%Pass accuracy64%
10.3Corners4.8
81%Field tilt45%
76.3Final-third entries29.8
25.1Box entries9.1
10.4Passes per defensive action14.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level402.780.66
Ahead442.921.08
Behind51.940.16

Ross County

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level540.891.12
Ahead131.451.98
Behind230.482.32

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.390.117–2
16–300.490.088–2
31–450.280.176–1
46–600.530.1010–1
61–750.320.174–4
76–900.800.2118–5

Ross County

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.111–0
16–300.160.261–7
31–450.080.321–4
46–600.180.206–5
61–750.110.284–5
76–900.180.364–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWHart 21Bain 1A. Johnston 18Ralston 4Carter-Vickers 13Lagerbielke 4Phillips 3Scales 20Nawrocki 3Taylor 22O'Riley 21McGregor 22Iwata 2Turnbull 9Bernardo 6Hatate 4Maeda 9Yang 5M. Johnston 3Furuhashi 19Oh 3Palma 14Maeda 6Yang 24-3-3 in every start

Ross County

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTLaidlaw 19Nightingale 10Dhanda 3Loturi 2Baldwin 19Leak 18Harmon 1Brown 18Randall 1Randall 15Turner 4Sheaf 2Allardice 10Loturi 5Dhanda 2Purrington 11Harmon 4Reid 3Dhanda 11Sims 4Loturi 2White 16Brophy 2Murray 18Dhanda 1Sims 13-4-1-2 in 10 of 19 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (10), 4-4-2 (5), 4-3-1-2 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
4 November 2023Ross County0–3CelticxG 0.26–3.40
5 August 2023Celtic4–2Ross CountyxG 4.15–1.13
2 April 2023Ross County0–2CelticxG 0.40–3.30
12 November 2022Celtic2–1Ross CountyxG 1.88–0.84
6 August 2022Ross County1–3CelticxG 0.39–1.75
24 April 2022Ross County0–2CelticxG 0.30–2.76

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 11, Ross County won 1, and 0 were drawn. Goals 32–6 and xG 2.82–0.55 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Turnbull9675700.710.39
Oh3600500.950.05
Palma141,091590.400.48
Furuhashi191,515830.650.12

Ross County

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murray181,392410.250.07
Sims6533000.230.05
White161,262300.200.04
Loturi9771100.180.05

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.