Digressive Celts

Matches › 2022/23

Hearts 5–0 Aberdeen

Wednesday 18 January 2023, 19:45 · Tynecastle Park · Round 22 · Half-time 4–0 · Referee William Collum · Attendance 18,497

Hearts Ginnelly 15', 45+1', Smith 28', Shankland 40' (pen), Devlin 61'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsAberdeen
Goals50
xG3.541.02
Non-penalty xG2.751.02
Expected Points2.780.14

Hearts 90%Draw 7%Aberdeen 2%

Most likely score 3–1, 12%. Final score 5–0, 5%.

Aberdeen goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+1%2%5%6%3%6%2%6%2%5%6%3%2%2%1%10%12%10%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTHumphrys on for Ginnelly and Grant on for McKay, 65'Kingsley on for Sibbick, 75'Forrest on for Smith and Oda on for Snodgrass, 85'Besuijen on for Hayes, 54'Myslovic on for Clarkson and Duncan on for Miovski, 61'Richardson on for Kennedy and Watkins on for Duk, 72'Ginnelly 15'Smith 28'Shankland 40' (pen)Ginnelly 45+1'Devlin 61'Hearts 3.54Aberdeen 1.02012340153045607590HTHumphrys on for Ginnelly and Grant on for McKay, 65'Kingsley on for Sibbick, 75'Forrest on for Smith and Oda on for Snodgrass, 85'Besuijen on for Hayes, 54'Myslovic on for Clarkson and Duncan on for Miovski, 61'Richardson on for Kennedy and Watkins on for Duk, 72'Ginnelly 15'Smith 28'Shankland 40' (pen)Ginnelly 45+1'Devlin 61'3.541.02HeartsAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsAberdeen

3.54 +1.94xG1.02 −0.38
2.75Non-penalty xG1.02
13 +1Shots9 −3
7 +2.9Shots on target2 −2.3
7 +4.8Big chances1 −1.1
16 −6Touches in the opposition box22 0
54% −1Possession46% −4
453 +15Passes362 −15
79% +3Pass accuracy72% −1
55% +5Field tilt45% +5
30 −4Final-third entries40 +3
13 +2Box entries10 0
11.6 −3Passes per defensive action18.6 +3
3 −2.0Corners8 +3.0
23 +7Tackles7 −6
10 +1.9Interceptions6 −2.7
18 0Clearances12 −11
2 −1.7Saves1 −2.2
18 +8.1Fouls15 +5.3
1 −0.3Offsides2 +0.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Humphrys 68', 0.67 xGGrant 87', 0.39 xGShankland 52', 0.22 xGMcKay 33', 0.07 xGShankland 77', 0.07 xGForrest 87', 0.06 xGShankland 11', 0.03 xGCochrane 11', 0.02 xGGinnelly 15', 0.83 xG, goalSmith 28', 0.20 xG, goalGinnelly 45+1', 0.13 xG, goalDevlin 61', 0.07 xG, goal62%1.72 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.72 xG, 1 goal24%0.65 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.65 xG, 2 goals11%0.30 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.30 xG, 1 goal3%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

Hayes 53', 0.28 xGClarkson 31', 0.16 xGMiovski 42', 0.15 xGMcCrorie 55', 0.12 xGMiovski 43', 0.09 xGBesuijen 78', 0.07 xGMcCrorie 50', 0.06 xGRamadani 8', 0.05 xGRamadani 23', 0.03 xG28%0.28 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.28 xG, 0 goals64%0.65 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.65 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals8%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsAberdeen

1.20 8 shots, 3 goalsOpen play0.66 4 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.05 1 shot, 0 goals
1.55 4 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.31 4 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
15 min (16%) · Hearts 0.88, Aberdeen 0.05 xG
Hearts ahead
76 min (84%) · Hearts 2.66, Aberdeen 0.97 xG

Line-ups

28722115214771991830ClarkHillSibbickRowlesSmithDevlinSnodgrassCochraneShanklandMcKayGinnellyYellow cardGoalGoalGoalGoalGoal75'85'85'65'65'Hearts 3-4-2-1Robbie Neilson13324221661720119LewisKennedyMcCrorieScalesCoulsonRamadaniShinnieHayesClarksonDukMiovskiYellow card72'54'61'72'61'Aberdeen 4-2-3-1Jim Goodwin

Hearts substitutes

  • 65' Grant for McKay
  • 65' Humphrys for Ginnelly
  • 75' Kingsley for Sibbick
  • 85' Forrest for Smith
  • 85' Oda for Snodgrass

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 54' Besuijen for Hayes
  • 61' Myslovic for Clarkson
  • 61' Duncan for Miovski
  • 72' Richardson for Kennedy
  • 72' Watkins for Duk

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ClarkGK900.000.0000.0430
HillCB900.000.0100.0877
SibbickCB7510.000.0010.0455
Rowles CB900.000.0000.0536
SmithRWB8510.200.0710.171110
DevlinCM9010.070.0200.0428
SnodgrassCM850.000.0200.0486
CochraneLWB900.020.0110.0127
ShanklandAM90121.110.2920.1832
McKayAM650.070.0500.1051
GinnellyST6520.960.5110.1710
GrantMF250.390.3710.1711
HumphrysFW250.670.000−0.0100
KingsleyDF150.000.0000.0001
ForrestMF50.060.0000.0000
OdaFW50.000.0210.0001

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
LewisGK900.000.0000.0120
KennedyRB720.000.3630.2342
McCrorieCB900.180.0200.1144
ScalesCB900.000.0100.0537
CoulsonLB900.000.0200.1052
RamadaniDM900.080.0200.0662
ShinnieDM900.000.0200.0125
HayesRW540.280.0910.0111
ClarksonAM610.160.2710.0340
Duk LW720.000.1410.2151
MiovskiST610.240.0100.0911
BesuijenFW360.070.000−0.0201
MyslovicMF290.000.0100.0310
DuncanMF290.000.0510.1040
RichardsonMF180.000.0000.0110
WatkinsFW180.000.0000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Clark and Sibbick: 4 passesSibbick and Smith: 4 passesDevlin and McKay: 4 passesRowles and Hill: 5 passesHill and Devlin: 5 passesSibbick and Devlin: 5 passesCochrane and Shankland: 5 passesMcKay and Shankland: 5 passesSibbick and Snodgrass: 6 passesSmith and Snodgrass: 6 passesClark and Hill: 7 passesHill and Snodgrass: 7 passesCochrane and McKay: 7 passesSnodgrass and Shankland: 7 passesRowles and McKay: 8 passesSmith and Devlin: 8 passesHill and Smith: 9 passesCochrane and Snodgrass: 9 passesSnodgrass and McKay: 10 passesDevlin and Snodgrass: 11 passesClark and Rowles: 12 passesRowles and Snodgrass: 15 passesRowles and Cochrane: 17 passesHill and Sibbick: 26 passesRowles and Sibbick: 35 passesClark: 19 completed passesRowles: 50 completed passesHill: 32 completed passesSibbick: 43 completed passesSmith: 20 completed passesCochrane: 25 completed passesDevlin: 18 completed passesSnodgrass: 40 completed passesMcKay: 20 completed passesShankland: 10 completed passesGinnelly: 5 completed passes28157221219147718930ClarkRowlesHillSibbickSmithCochraneDevlinSnodgrassMcKayShanklandGinnellyStarters until 65' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Aberdeen

Kennedy and Scales: 3 passesMcCrorie and Shinnie: 3 passesMcCrorie and Hayes: 3 passesShinnie and Clarkson: 3 passesRamadani and Hayes: 3 passesClarkson and Duk: 3 passesDuk and Miovski: 3 passesLewis and Scales: 4 passesKennedy and Hayes: 4 passesScales and Clarkson: 4 passesMcCrorie and Clarkson: 4 passesCoulson and Ramadani: 4 passesShinnie and Ramadani: 4 passesCoulson and Duk: 5 passesScales and Shinnie: 6 passesScales and Ramadani: 6 passesMcCrorie and Ramadani: 6 passesCoulson and Shinnie: 6 passesShinnie and Duk: 6 passesScales and McCrorie: 7 passesKennedy and Ramadani: 11 passesScales and Coulson: 13 passesKennedy and McCrorie: 18 passesLewis: 5 completed passesKennedy: 23 completed passesScales: 25 completed passesMcCrorie: 22 completed passesCoulson: 17 completed passesShinnie: 16 completed passesRamadani: 21 completed passesHayes: 3 completed passesClarkson: 13 completed passesDuk: 6 completed passesMiovski: 2 completed passes13342226161720119LewisKennedyScalesMcCrorieCoulsonShinnieRamadaniHayesClarksonDukMiovskiStarters until 54' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
SibbickRowles22
HillSibbick16
RowlesSibbick15
RowlesSnodgrass13
SibbickHill11

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
McCrorieKennedy12
ScalesCoulson11
KennedyRamadani11
CoulsonScales10
KennedyMcCrorie10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

9+4.48+2.113−0.170.05+0.612+4.56−0.46+0.16−2.18+1.05−0.76+1.32−1.44−0.811+5.97+3.39+6.04+1.57+4.45+1.01−2.32+0.12+1.30−1.11−1.21+0.50−0.30−0.50−0.31+0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Aberdeen

2−2.64−2.33−2.83−3.02−4.010+3.75−2.010+5.04−0.99+5.79+4.07+0.72−1.58+3.62−0.66+2.28+4.51−0.40−1.44+3.10−1.33+1.13+2.30−0.20−0.62+1.91+0.412−4.94−4.91−4.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.020.010.010.020.040.030.030.020.010.070.030.040.010.030.110.010.020.030.21−0.010.32LessMore

Aberdeen

0.010.020.010.010.030.010.060.010.010.040.090.030.080.040.040.11−0.010.080.020.04−0.010.180.14LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackHearts1.35 → 1.42Aberdeen1.15 → 1.13Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.23 → 1.20Aberdeen1.26 → 1.32

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six99%>99%+1
Aberdeen
Top six83%78%−5
St. Mirren
Top six45%46%+1
11th4%4%0

From the forecast before the match (18 January 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsAberdeen
Expected goals1.651.04
Win51%23%
Expected Points1.780.96
Clean sheet35%19%

Hearts 51%Draw 26%Aberdeen 23%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 53%.

Aberdeen goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%6%4%1%6%2%5%2%5%5%3%1%2%2%1%11%12%9%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 18 January 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawAberdeen win
Hearts
Top six99%>99%99%99%
Aberdeen
Top six83%78%85%92%
St. Mirren
Top six45%46%46%42%
11th4%4%5%4%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W1–013 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.68–1.41
  2. D1–17 JanSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.99–0.66
  3. W3–02 JanHibernian (H)xG 1.76–1.19
  4. W3–228 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.33–2.50
  5. D2–224 DecDundee United (A)xG 1.72–0.79
  6. W3–117 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 2.40–1.09

Aberdeen

  1. W2–07 JanSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.10–0.51
  2. D0–02 JanRoss County (H)xG 2.08–0.44
  3. L1–228 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 0.42–1.91
  4. L1–324 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.98–3.27
  5. L2–320 DecRangers (H)xG 0.54–1.58
  6. L0–117 DecCeltic (H)xG 0.06–2.36

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsAberdeen
Position3rd5th
Played2121
Won, drawn, lost10–⁠5–⁠69–⁠2–⁠10
Points35 (1.67 per game)29 (1.38 per game)
Expected Points per game1.351.33
Goals37–⁠3135–⁠32
xG per game1.60–⁠1.651.40–⁠1.57
Home: points, xG per game2.20, 2.10–⁠1.602.00, 1.77–⁠1.16
Away: points, xG per game1.18, 1.14–⁠1.700.70, 0.99–⁠2.03
ManagerRobbie Neilson (59)Jim Goodwin (6)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.23AttackHearts1.35, 3rdAberdeen1.15, 4thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.23, 4thAberdeen1.26, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanHearts attack: 1.35Aberdeen attack: 1.151.351.15AberdeenHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0AugSepOctNovDecJanHearts defence: 1.23Aberdeen defence: 1.261.261.23

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+21%+35%−2%+7%
Counter-attacks+32%−62%+57%−5%
Set pieces−12%+22%−18%+27%
Penalties+90%+19%+90%+90%
Headers−11%+33%+19%+17%
Left side−3%+26%−16%+16%
Centre+14%+33%−6%−2%
Right side+29%+23%+11%+30%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdAberdeen concededLeft side−3%+30%Centre+14%−2%Right side+29%+16%Open play+21%+7%Counter-attacks+32%−5%Set pieces−12%+27%Headers−11%+17%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdHearts concededLeft side−16%+23%Centre−6%+33%Right side+11%+26%Open play−2%+35%Counter-attacks+57%−62%Set pieces−18%+22%Headers+19%+33%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsAberdeen

1.60xG1.40
1.65xG against1.57
55%Possession50%
12.2Shots12.4
14.8Shots against14.6
4.1Shots on target4.3
2.2Big chances2.1
21.7Touches in the opposition box21.6
438Passes377
76%Pass accuracy73%
5.0Corners5.0
49%Field tilt40%
34.2Final-third entries37.0
11.1Box entries10.3
14.8Passes per defensive action15.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level322.111.44
Ahead331.302.02
Behind251.351.44

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level411.261.49
Ahead261.671.24
Behind231.342.10

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.280.174–6
16–300.220.157–3
31–450.310.286–0
46–600.190.336–8
61–750.180.304–5
76–900.410.4210–9

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.183–3
16–300.190.224–4
31–450.350.288–7
46–600.240.286–6
61–750.240.297–5
76–900.280.327–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 16Clark 4Stewart 1Smith 12Sibbick 4Halkett 2Sibbick 8Neilson 4Halkett 3Rowles 11Cochrane 8Kingsley 8Cochrane 10Halliday 8Snodgrass 2Devlin 13Halliday 5Kiomourtzoglou 4Snodgrass 11Grant 2Smith 1Ginnelly 9Forrest 4McKay 2Smith 3Boyce 3McKay 2McKay 13Mackay-Steven 3Forrest 2Shankland 14Ginnelly 3Humphrys 34-2-3-1 in 7 of 21 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-4-3 (6), 4-1-4-1 (4), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTRoos 21McCrorie 12Richardson 9Stewart 20Scales 17McCrorie 3MacKenzie 2Coulson 10Duk 10Scales 1Ramadani 18Richardson 3Barron 7McCrorie 6Clarkson 5Kennedy 9Besuijen 4Barron 3Coulson 5Besuijen 5Clarkson 4Hayes 9Clarkson 6Duk 2Miovski 214-2-3-1 in 8 of 21 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (8), 3-5-2 (7), 3-1-4-2 (3), 4-4-2 (3)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
16 October 2022Aberdeen2–0HeartsxG 1.73–1.36
2 March 2022Hearts2–0AberdeenxG 1.15–0.92
30 October 2021Aberdeen2–1HeartsxG 1.11–0.95
22 August 2021Hearts1–1AberdeenxG 1.17–0.54

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 1, Aberdeen won 2, and 1 was a draw. Goals 4–5 and xG 1.16–1.08 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland171,6121520.860.05
Grant5503110.350.14
Ginnelly131,106320.150.18
Forrest10918400.240.06

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Miovski211,6931100.630.03
Besuijen9861310.240.19
Duk131,201920.350.04
Kennedy10829210.140.20

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.